Scheduled services of tourist trains in Latin America: A growing market

Trains in Latin America and the Caribbean mainly serve as a means of mass transit, bearing passengers along local and suburban routes of cities and transporting freight beyond. Non-urban passenger trains almost disappeared during the last few decades of the twentieth century. In the new emerging markets, however, demand is based on the train itself or the scenery en route rather than a wish to arrive at a given station as in the past. The new tourist trains, which are often well-restored historical engines, are expensive to operate and their special characteristics make it difficult to integrate them with mass transit railway services. However, some may be profitable when run privately and others may have a social justification, based on the boost they can provide to economic development in the often isolated and relatively depressed areas where they tend to operate.

The tourist cruise industry and its impact on South America

The global tourist cruise industry has been experiencing sustained growth for quite some time; the industry's future prospects are promising, due to good profitability and a reduction in costs achieved thanks to use of ever larger ships, which are making this new form of tourism accessible to more and more people.South American destinations have been visited by a wide range of cruise operators, reflecting the expansion of this industry worldwide; it is necessary that players in the industry take advantage of this opportunity to provide services that employ substantial numbers of people and develop port facilities in order to meet the requirements of ships and tourists alike, thereby heading off competition from other routes.

Tourist Cruise Ships and the Trade in Services: Recent Trends in Countries of the Caribbean Basin

This issue of the Bulletin reviews the main trends of trade in goods and services for the countries of the Association of Caribbean States (ACS) in 2004. The strong recovery of trade in goods and the robust expansion of trade in services are highlighted, emphasizing the increase in services as a proportion of total exports for the smaller Caribbean economies, which may even exceed 80%.A detailed analysis of the performance of the tourism component, especially travel, showed that in 2004 there was a boom in cruise ship arrivals, a situation which poses a real challenge for some islands in terms of ensuring a permanent flow of tourists and making use of the main comparative advantages -sun, sea and beaches- and possible linkages with the rest of the economy such as the hotel industry, restaurants, business and entertainment centres, guided excursions, transport, yachting, and others. In some islands, the ratio of cruise passengers to inhabitants is particularly high, and can reach a significant factor of about 11 tourists for every inhabitant in the Bahamas, 8 in Aruba, 7 in Antigua and Barbuda and 5 in Dominica, and around 4 for a sample of eleven countries.One of the main challenges for a number of Caribbean islands is how to capitalize on such linkages by developing sustainable tourism that minimizes the possible adverse impacts on the environment and the everyday life of the citizens.

Tourist cruises in South America: new opportunities and challenges

More free time and disposable income not only in developed but also in emerging countries have generated a demand that shipping lines have capitalized on by offering ocean cruise services to an exponentially growing segment of the tourist industry. With the search for alternative destinations for ocean cruises, in recent years the Southern Cone countries of Latin America have been playing host to an encouraging number of passenger ships during the summer November-March season, suggesting that this sub-region could become a permanent feature of the circuit of international ocean cruises. To convert this into a reality, however, will require investment in port facilities and passenger terminals, thus presenting an opportunity for private participation in providing and running these facilities.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas

The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

A statistical evaluation of the effects of process variables during catalytic hydrogenation of passion fruit (passiflora edulis) seed oil

ABSTRACT: Hydrogenation of passion fruit (passiflora edulis) seed oil was carried out with a commercial nickel/silica catalyst under different experimental conditions. The influence of reaction parameters (reaction temperature, hydrogen pressure, amount of catalyst, agitation rate and reaction time) on the response variable (iodine value) was studied using a central composite rotatable design and six center points for replication. Under the experimental conditions used, the model response equations for the iodine value showed good agreement with the experimental results.

Cárie dentária em pré-escolares: Associação com fatores sociodemográficos, Lócus de controle e atitudes parentais

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Effect of sex and seasons of the year on hematologic and serum biochemical variables of captive brown brocket deer (Mazama gouazoubira)

The Brown brocket deer (Mazama gouazoubira) is the most common free-living and captive deer in South America, especially in Brazil, and has great ecological and scientific significance. However, data on hematological and biochemical parameters in brown brocket deer are scarce. The goal of this study was to establish reference ranges for hematological and biochemical parameters of Mazama gouazoubira, comparing differences during the seasons of the year and between sex. Blood samples from ten adult healthy brown brocket deer (6 female and 4 male) were collected during daytime, monthly, during 12 months. The animals were maintained in individual stable, protected from noise and fed ad libitum with commercial ration and green fodder. For blood collection, animals were submitted to physical restrain for no longer than 2 minutes. The following parameters were determined: red blood cell count (RBC), haemoglobin concentration, packed cell volume (PCV), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular haemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration (MCHC), white blood cell count (WBC), platelet count, enzyme activity of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), creatine kinase (CK), total protein (TP), albumin, cholesterol, total calcium, ionic calcium, sodium, potassium, magnesium, triglycerides, creatinine and urea. Values were compared according to season and sex. RBC count, WBC count and MCV suggested seasonal influence. Haemoglobin concentration, PCV and MCV were influenced by sex. Serum concentration of total calcium, ionic calcium, sodium, potassium and magnesium were influenced by season. Serum magnesium was also influenced by sex. The blood parameters herein reported may be useful as reference values for diagnostic and prognostic purposes in captive brown-brocket deer.

Effect of steam thermal treatment on the drying process of Eucalyptus dunnii variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Body composition variables as predictors of NAFLD by ultrasound in obese children and adolescents

Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a disorder associated with excessive fat accumulation, mainly in the intra-abdominal region. A simple technique to estimate abdominal fat in this region could be useful to assess the presence of NAFLD, in obese subjects who are more vulnerable to this disease. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to verify the reliability of waist circumference and body composition variables to identify the occurrence of NAFLD in obese children and adolescents.Methods: Sample was composed of 145 subjects, aged 11 to 17 years. Assessments of waist circumference (WC), trunk fat mass (TFM) and fat mass (FM) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and ultrasound for diagnosis of NAFLD and intra-abdominal adipose tissue (IAAT) were used. Correlation between variables was made by Spearman's coefficients; ROC curve parameters (sensitivity, specificity, area under curve) were used to assess the reliability of body composition variables to assess the presence of NAFLD. Statistical significance was set at 5%.Results: Significant correlations were observed between NAFLD and WC (p = 0.001), TFM (p = 0.002) and IAAT (p = 0.001). The higher values of area under the ROC curve were for WC (AUC = 0.720), TFM (AUC = 0.661) and IAAT (AUC = 0.741).Conclusions: Our findings indicated that TFM, IAAT and WC present high potential to identify NAFLD in obese children and adolescents.

Analysis of cardiopulmonary and metabolic variables measured during laboratory and sport-specific incremental tests for table tennis performance prediction

Purpose. - The purposes of this study were: i) to compare the physiological responses measured during a specific table tennis incremental test with the physiological responses measured during cycling, arm cranking, and treadmill running tests; and ii) to verify the accuracy of table tennis performance prediction based on the physiological responses from these tests.Methods. - Eleven national level male table tennis players participated in the study and undertook incremental tests using ergometers. Table tennis performance was defined as the ranking obtained during a simulated tournament between the participants.Results. - In general, peak values for physiological variables (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) and [La]PEAK) were significantly lower (P < 0.05) in the specific test (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 39.9 +/- 1.5 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 6.4 +/- 0.5 mmol.L-1) than during cycling (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 41.3 +/- 1.4 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 10.2 +/- 0.7 mmol.L-1) or running (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 43.9 +/- 1.5 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 10.0 +/- 0.7 mmol.L-1), but higher than during arm cranking (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 26.6 +/- 1.6 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 8.9 +/- 0.6 mmol.L-1). At respiratory compensation point intensity (RCP), only the variables measured on arm cranking were lower (P < 0.05) than on the other ergometers. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed significant correlation between table tennis performance and lactate concentration ([La]) and also rate of perceived effort (RPE) at RCP during cycling (r = 0.89; P < 0.05).Conclusion. - In conclusion, the significant differences obtained between the specific and laboratory ergometers demonstrate the need to use a specific test to measure physiological parameters in table tennis and the physiological parameters measured, independent of the ergometer used, are unable to predict table tennis performance. (C) 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Hyoscine-N-butylbromide premedication on cardiovascular variables of horses sedated with medetomidine

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)