Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Agents, Incomplete Markets and Trading Constraints

The consumption capital asset pricing model is the standard economic model used to capture stock market behavior. However, empirical tests have pointed out to its inability to account quantitatively for the high average rate of return and volatility of stocks over time for plausible parameter values. Recent research has suggested that the consumption of stockholders is more strongly correlated with the performance of the stock market than the consumption of non-stockholders. We model two types of agents, non-stockholders with standard preferences and stock holders with preferences that incorporate elements of the prospect theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). In addition to consumption, stockholders consider fluctuations in their financial wealth explicitly when making decisions. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to calibrate the labor income processes of the two types of agents. Each agent faces idiosyncratic shocks to his labor income as well as aggregate shocks to the per-share dividend but markets are incomplete and agents cannot hedge consumption risks completely. In addition, consumers face both borrowing and short-sale constraints. Our results show that in equilibrium, agents hold different portfolios. Our model is able to generate a time-varying risk premium of about 5.5% while maintaining a low risk free rate, thus suggesting a plausible explanation for the equity premium puzzle reported by Mehra and Prescott (1985).

Calidad de vida : apertura y perspectiva filosófica

Este trabajo está orientado como apertura a la reflexión sobre un tema con implicancias en el campo de las Ciencias de la Salud, en general, y en el de la Odontología, específicamente. El concepto calidad de vida se refiere a la relación entre las capacidades a nivel biológico, psicológico y social que se alcanzan en el individuo. Nuestro aporte sigue los lineamientos de la concepción integral del ser humano, en donde la salud hace referencia a la dinámica vital contextualizada en una cultura, una época, un sistema de creencias y valores y condicionantes socio-económicos Desde la filosofía presentamos un enfoque reflexivo sobre las bases conceptuales de “calidad de vida", con la finalidad de favorecer el vínculo interdisciplinario entre la Odontología y las Ciencias Humanas.

Holocene sedimentation rates in the Northwest Passage

Palynological, geochemical, and physical records were used to document Holocene paleoceanographic changes in marine sediment core from Dease Strait in the western part of the main axis of the Northwest Passage (core 2005-804-006 PC latitude 68°59.552'N, longitude 106°34.413'W). Quantitative estimates of past sea surface conditions were inferred from the modern analog technique applied to dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. The chronology of core 2005-804-006 PC is based on a combined use of the paleomagnetic secular variation records and the CALS7K.2 time-varying spherical harmonic model of the geomagnetic field. The age-depth model indicates that the core spans the last ~7700 cal years B.P., with a sedimentation rate of 61 cm/ka. The reconstructed sea surface parameters were compared with those from Barrow Strait and Lancaster Sound (cores 2005-804-004 PC and 2004-804-009 PC, respectively), which allowed us to draw a millennial-scale Holocene sea ice history along the main axis of the Northwest Passage (MANWP). Overall, our data are in good agreement with previous studies based on bowhead whale remains. However, dinoflagellate sea surface based reconstructions suggest several new features. The presence of dinoflagellate cysts in the three cores for most of the Holocene indicates that the MANWP was partially ice-free over the last 10,000 years. This suggests that the recent warming observed in the MANWP could be part of the natural climate variability at the millennial time scale, whereas anthropogenic forcing could have accelerated the warming over the past decades. We associate Holocene climate variability in the MANWP with a large-scale atmospheric pattern, such as the Arctic Oscillation, which may have operated since the early Holocene. In addition to a large-scale pattern, more local conditions such as coastal current, tidal effects, or ice cap proximity may have played a role on the regional sea ice cover. These findings highlight the need to further develop regional investigations in the Arctic to provide realistic boundary conditions for climatic simulations.

(Table 1) Chlorophyll a content and microalgae abundance and biovolume in pack ice in the Bellingshausen Sea

Pack ice in the Bellingshausen Sea contained moderate to high stocks of microalgal biomass (3-10 mg Chl a/m**2) spanning the range of general sea-ice microalgal microhabitats (e.g., bottom, interior and surface) during the International Polar Year (IPY) Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Antarctic (SIMBA) studies. Measurements of irradiance above and beneath the ice as well as optical properties of the microalgae therein demonstrated that absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by particulates (microalgae and detritus) had a substantial influence on attenuation of PAR and irradiance transmission in areas with moderate snow covers (0.2-0.3 m) and more moderate effects in areas with low snow cover. Particulates contributed an estimated 25 to 90% of the attenuation coefficients for the first-year sea ice at wavelengths less than 500 nm. Strong ultraviolet radiation (UVR) absorption by particulates was prevalent in the ice habitats where solar radiation was highest - with absorption coefficients by ice algae often being as large as that of the sea ice. Strong UVR-absorption features were associated with an abundance of dinoflagellates and a general lack of diatoms - perhaps suggesting UVR may be influencing the structure of some parts of the sea-ice microbial communities in the pack ice during spring. We also evaluated the time-varying changes in the spectra of under-ice irradiances in the austral spring and showed dynamics associated with changes that could be attributed to coupled changes in the ice thickness (mass balance) and microalgal biomass. All results are indicative of radiation-induced changes in the absorption properties of the pack ice and highlight the non-linear, time-varying, biophysical interactions operating within the Antarctic pack ice ecosystem.

Minerals and geochemistry abundance and occurance, as well as K-Ar determinations for DSDP Site 92-597 basalts

Preliminary studies of hydrothermally altered massive basalts formed at the fast-spreading Mendoza Rise and recovered from DSDP Holes 597B and 597C indicate the presence of three secondary mineral assemblages which formed in the following order: (1) trioctahedral chlorite and talc, (2) goethite and smectite, and (3) calcite and celadonite. The sequential precipitation of these mineral assemblages denotes high water:rock ratios and time-varying conditions of temperature (early >200°C to late <30°C) and state of oxidation (early nonoxidative to late oxidative). A decrease in the relative proportion of oxidative mineral assemblages with depth to 70 m in Site 597 basement indicates a zone of oxidative alteration that became shallower with time as the deeper, more constricted fracture systems were filled by secondary mineralization. In this report we present the first results of the K-Ar dating of celadonite formation age; celadonite formation reflects end-stage hydrothermal alteration in Site 597 basement. Three celadonite dates obtained from Site 597 samples include 13.1 ± 0.3 m.y. from 17 m basement depth (Hole 597B), 19.9 ± 0.4 m.y. from 18 m basement depth (Hole 597C), and 19.3 ± 1.6 m.y. from 60 m basement depth (Hole 597C). The age of host rock crystallization (28.6 m.y.) and the K-Ar dates of celadonite formation establish that hydrothermal alteration in the upper 70 m of Site 597 basement continued for at least 10 m.y. and possibly as long as 16 m.y. after basalt crystallization at the ridge crest. Assuming a half-spreading rate of 55 km/m.y., we calculate that hydrothermal circulation was active in shallow basement at a distance of at least 550 km off ridge crest and possibly as far as 1000 km off ridge crest.

Investment promotion agencies: do they work?

In this paper, we examine the role of investment promotion agencies (IPAs) in promoting outward FDI from Japan and Korea. Looking at two home countries enables us to control for both country-pair time-invariant characteristics and host country time-varying characteristics. Our empirical results suggest that home-country IPAs tend to be more effective in promoting outward FDI in politically risky host countries. However, this finding depends on whether the home-country firm is listed or unlisted. More specifically, we find that the positive effect of home country IPAs on outward FDI in politically risky countries is limited to unlisted home- country firms, which are widely assumed to be less competitive and productive.

Do export promotion agencies increase exports?

In this paper, we examine the role of export promotion agencies (EPAs) in promoting exports from Japan and Korea. Looking at two home countries enables us to tackle endogeneity issues by controlling for both country-pair time-invariant characteristics and importing country time-varying characteristics. Our empirical results indicate that the coefficients of the EPA dummy are similar in size to those of the FTA dummy. This implies that establishing an EPA office in a country is equivalent to signing an FTA with that country. In addition, we find that EPA’s effects are larger for manufactured products than non-manufactured products. Finally, the EPA effect is larger for low income trade partners than for high income trade partners.

Assessment of Hydrogen as suistinable clean energy

The progressive depletion of fossil fuels and their high contribution to the energy supply in this modern society forces that will be soon replaced by renewable fuels. But the dispersion and alternation of renewable energy production also undertake to reduce their costs to use as energy storage and hydrogen carrier. It is necessary to develop technologies for hydrogen production from all renewable energy storage technologies and the development of energy production from hydrogen fuel cells and cogeneration and tri generation systems. In order to propel this technological development discussed where the hydrogen plays a key role as energy storage and renewable energy, the National Centre of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Experimentation in Spain equipped with installations that enable scientific and technological design, develop, verify, certify, approve, test, measure and, more importantly, the facility ensures continuous operation for 24 hours a day, 365 days year. At the same time, the system is scalable so as to allow continuous adaptation of new technologies are developed and incorporated into the assembly to verify integration at the same time it checks the validity of their development. The transformation sector can be said to be the heart of the system, because without neglecting the other sectors, this should prove the validity of hydrogen as a carrier - energy storage are important efforts that have to do to demonstrate the suitability of fuel cells or internal combustion systems to realize the energy stored in hydrogen at prices competitive with conventional systems. The multiple roles to meet the fuel cells under different conditions of operation require to cover their operating conditions, many different sizes and applications. The fourth area focuses on integration is an essential complement within the installation. We must integrate not only the electricity produced, but also hydrogen is used and the heat generated in the process of using hydrogen energy. The energy management in its three forms: hydrogen chemical, electrical and thermal integration requires complicated and require a logic and artificial intelligence extremes to ensure maximum energy efficiency at the same time optimum utilization is achieved. Verification of the development and approval in the entire production system and, ultimately, as a demonstrator set to facilitate the simultaneous evolution of production technology, storage and distribution of hydrogen fuel cells has been assessed.

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

Monitoring maximum peak power density values as a more reliable marker for measurement procedures to elucidate RF EMF health effects: Leganes project

Considering the measurement procedures recommended by the ICNIRP, this communication is a proposal for a measurement procedure based in the maximum peak values of equivalent plane wave power density. This procedure has been included in a project being developed in Leganés, Spain. The project plans to deploy a real time monitoring system for RF to provide the city with a useful tool to adapt the environmental EM conditions to the new regulations approved. A first stage consisting of 105 measurement points has been finished and all the values are under the threshold of the regulation.

Scalable software architecture for on-line multi-camera video processing

In this paper we present a scalable software architecture for on-line multi-camera video processing, that guarantees a good trade off between computational power, scalability and flexibility. The software system is modular and its main blocks are the Processing Units (PUs), and the Central Unit. The Central Unit works as a supervisor of the running PUs and each PU manages the acquisition phase and the processing phase. Furthermore, an approach to easily parallelize the desired processing application has been presented. In this paper, as case study, we apply the proposed software architecture to a multi-camera system in order to efficiently manage multiple 2D object detection modules in a real-time scenario. System performance has been evaluated under different load conditions such as number of cameras and image sizes. The results show that the software architecture scales well with the number of camera and can easily works with different image formats respecting the real time constraints. Moreover, the parallelization approach can be used in order to speed up the processing tasks with a low level of overhead

Computational Methods for Identification of Vibrating Structures

System identification deals with the problem of building mathematical models of dynamical systems based on observed data from the system" [1]. In the context of civil engineering, the system refers to a large scale structure such as a building, bridge, or an offshore structure, and identification mostly involves the determination of modal parameters (the natural frequencies, damping ratios, and mode shapes). This paper presents some modal identification results obtained using a state-of-the-art time domain system identification method (data-driven stochastic subspace algorithms [2]) applied to the output-only data measured in a steel arch bridge. First, a three dimensional finite element model was developed for the numerical analysis of the structure using ANSYS. Modal analysis was carried out and modal parameters were extracted in the frequency range of interest, 0-10 Hz. The results obtained from the finite element modal analysis were used to determine the location of the sensors. After that, ambient vibration tests were conducted during April 23-24, 2009. The response of the structure was measured using eight accelerometers. Two stations of three sensors were formed (triaxial stations). These sensors were held stationary for reference during the test. The two remaining sensors were placed at the different measurement points along the bridge deck, in which only vertical and transversal measurements were conducted (biaxial stations). Point estimate and interval estimate have been carried out in the state space model using these ambient vibration measurements. In the case of parametric models (like state space), the dynamic behaviour of a system is described using mathematical models. Then, mathematical relationships can be established between modal parameters and estimated point parameters (thus, it is common to use experimental modal analysis as a synonym for system identification). Stable modal parameters are found using a stabilization diagram. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method for assessing the precision of estimates of the parameters of state-space models (confidence interval). This approach employs the nonparametric bootstrap procedure [3] and is applied to subspace parameter estimation algorithm. Using bootstrap results, a plot similar to a stabilization diagram is developed. These graphics differentiate system modes from spurious noise modes for a given order system. Additionally, using the modal assurance criterion, the experimental modes obtained have been compared with those evaluated from a finite element analysis. A quite good agreement between numerical and experimental results is observed.

Influence of Strouhal number on pulsating methane–air coflow jet diffusion flames

Four periodically time-varying methane–air laminar coflow jet diffusion flames, each forced by pulsating the fuel jet's exit velocity Uj sinusoidally with a different modulation frequency wj and with a 50% amplitude variation, have been computed. Combustion of methane has been modeled by using a chemical mechanism with 15 species and 42 reactions, and the solution of the unsteady Navier–Stokes equations has been obtained numerically by using a modified vorticity-velocity formulation in the limit of low Mach number. The effect of wj on temperature and chemistry has been studied in detail. Three different regimes are found depending on the flame's Strouhal number S=awj/Uj, with a denoting the fuel jet radius. For small Strouhal number (S=0.1), the modulation introduces a perturbation that travels very far downstream, and certain variables oscillate at the frequency imposed by the fuel jet modulation. As the Strouhal number grows, the nondimensional frequency approaches the natural frequency of oscillation of the flickering flame (S≃0.2). A coupling with the pulsation frequency enhances the effect of the imposed modulation and a vigorous pinch-off is observed for S=0.25 and S=0.5. Larger values of S confine the oscillation to the jet's near-exit region, and the effects of the pulsation are reduced to small wiggles in the temperature and concentration values. Temperature and species mass fractions change appreciably near the jet centerline, where variations of over 2% for the temperature and 15% and 40% for the CO and OH mass fractions, respectively, are found. Transverse to the jet movement, however, the variations almost disappear at radial distances on the order of the fuel jet radius, indicating a fast damping of the oscillation in the spanwise direction.

Adapting mode switches into the hierarchical scheduling

Mode switches are used to partition the system’s behavior into different modes to reduce the complexity of large embedded systems. Such systems operate in multiple modes in which each one corresponds to a specific application scenario; these are called Multi-Mode Systems (MMS). A different piece of software is normally executed for each mode. At any given time, the system can be in one of the predefined modes and then be switched to another as a result of a certain condition. A mode switch mechanism (or mode change protocol) is used to shift the system from one mode to another at run-time. In this thesis we have used a hierarchical scheduling framework to implement a multi-mode system called Multi-Mode Hierarchical Scheduling Framework (MMHSF). A two-level Hierarchical Scheduling Framework (HSF) has already been implemented in an open source real-time operating system, FreeRTOS, to support temporal isolation among real-time components. The main contribution of this thesis is the extension of the HSF featuring a multimode feature with an emphasis on making minimal changes in the underlying operating system (FreeRTOS) and its HSF implementation. Our implementation uses fixed-priority preemptive scheduling at both local and global scheduling levels and idling periodic servers. It also now supports different modes of the system which can be switched at run-time. Each subsystem and task exhibit different timing attributes according to mode, and upon a Mode Change Request (MCR) the task-set and timing interfaces of the entire system (including subsystems and tasks) undergo a change. A Mode Change Protocol specifies precisely how the system-mode will be changed. However, an application may not only need to change a mode but also a different mode change protocol semantic. For example, the mode change from normal to shutdown can allow all the tasks to be completed before the mode itself is changed, while changing a mode from normal to emergency may require aborting all tasks instantly. In our work, both the system mode and the mode change protocol can be changed at run-time. We have implemented three different mode change protocols to switch from one mode to another: the Suspend/resume protocol, the Abort protocol, and the Complete protocol. These protocols increase the flexibility of the system, allowing users to select the way they want to switch to a new mode. The implementation of MMHSF is tested and evaluated on an AVR-based 32 bit board EVK1100 with an AVR32UC3A0512 micro-controller. We have tested the behavior of each system mode and for each mode change protocol. We also provide the results for the performance measures of all mode change protocols in the thesis. RESUMEN Los conmutadores de modo son usados para particionar el comportamiento del sistema en diferentes modos, reduciendo así la complejidad de grandes sistemas empotrados. Estos sistemas tienen multiples modos de operación, cada uno de ellos correspondiente a distintos escenarios y para distintas aplicaciones; son llamados Sistemas Multimodales (o en inglés “Multi-Mode Systems” o MMS). Normalmente cada modo ejecuta una parte de código distinto. En un momento dado el sistema, que está en un modo concreto, puede ser cambiado a otro modo distinto como resultado de alguna condicion impuesta previamente. Los mecanismos de cambio de modo (o protocolos de cambio de modo) son usados para mover el sistema de un modo a otro durante el tiempo de ejecución. En este trabajo se ha usado un modelo de sistema operativo para implementar un sistema multimodo llamado MMHSF, siglas en inglés correspondientes a (Multi-Mode Hierarchical Scheduling Framework). Este sistema está basado en el HSF (Hierarchical Scheduling Framework), un modelo de sistema operativo con jerarquía de dos niveles, implementado en un sistema operativo en tiempo real de libre distribución llamado FreeRTOS, capaz de permitir el aislamiento temporal entre componentes. La principal contribución de este trabajo es la ampliación del HSF convirtiendolo en un sistema multimodo realizando los cambios mínimos necesarios sobre el sistema operativo FreeRTOS y la implementación ya existente del HSF. Esta implementación usa un sistema de planificación de prioridad fija para ambos niveles de jerarquía, ocupando el tiempo entre tareas con un “modo reposo”. Además el sistema es capaz de cambiar de un modo a otro en tiempo de ejecución. Cada subsistema y tarea son capaces de tener distintos atributos de tiempo (prioridad, periodo y tiempo de ejecución) en función del modo. Bajo una demanda de cambio de modo (Mode Change Request MCR) se puede variar el set de tareas en ejecución, así como los atributos de los servidores y las tareas. Un protocolo de cambio de modo espeficica precisamente cómo será cambiado el sistema de un modo a otro. Sin embargo una aplicación puede requerir no solo un cambio de modo, sino que lo haga de una forma especifica. Por ejemplo, el cambio de modo de “normal” a “apagado” puede permitir a las tareas en ejecución ser finalizadas antes de que se complete la transición, pero sin embargo el cambio de “normal” a “emergencia” puede requerir abortar todas las tareas instantaneamente. En este trabajo ambas características, tanto el modo como el protocolo de cambio, pueden ser cambiadas en tiempo de ejecución, pero deben ser previamente definidas por el desarrollador. Han sido definidos tres protocolos de cambios: el protocolo “suspender/continuar”, protocolo “abortar” y el protocolo “completar”. Estos protocolos incrementan la flexibilidad del sistema, permitiendo al usuario seleccionar de que forma quieren cambiar hacia el nuevo modo. La implementación del MMHSF ha sido testada y evaluada en una placa AVR EVK1100, con un micro-controlador AVR32UC3A0. Se ha comprobado el comportamiento de los distintos modos para los distintos protocolos, definidos previamente. Como resultado se proporcionan las medidades de rendimiento de los distintos protocolos de cambio de modo.