937 resultados para Time scales


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This report evaluates the existing situation in the Celtic Seas sub-region and determines the current state of preparedness for transboundary management of marine ecosystems and MSFD implementation. Recommendations for capacity building are provided through the analysis of the existing conflicts and potential synergies between relevant policies, institutions and information resources for MSFD implementation across the region. This report strives to empower stakeholders through the provision of a sound baseline with accurate and up-to-date information on the current status of MSFD implementation, potential opportunities and suggested approaches for building capacities in their region and across the Celtic Seas. It is evident that there are a number of national marine planning processes currently underway and at different stages throughout the United Kingdom and the pre-planning context for MSP in Ireland. On a similar note, this evaluation of MSFD implementation progress to-date in the United Kingdom, Ireland and France highlights that each Member State has implemented the legal and procedural requirements of preparatory steps in differing manners and using different time scales. This variance across the sub-region has the potential to impact the achievement of GES by 2020 across the Celtic Seas.

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The rapid development of nanotechnology and wider applications of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in the last few decades have generated concerns regarding their environmental and health risks. After release into the environment, ENMs undergo aggregation, transformation, and, for metal-based nanomaterials, dissolution processes, which together determine their fate, bioavailability and toxicity to living organisms in the ecosystems. The rates of these processes are dependent on nanomaterial characteristics as well as complex environmental factors, including natural organic matter (NOM). As a ubiquitous component of aquatic systems, NOM plays a key role in the aggregation, dissolution and transformation of metal-based nanomaterials and colloids in aquatic environments.

The goal of this dissertation work is to investigate how NOM fractions with different chemical and molecular properties affect the dissolution kinetics of metal oxide ENMs, such as zinc oxide (ZnO) and copper oxide (CuO) nanoparticles (NPs), and consequently their bioavailability to aquatic vertebrate, with Gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis) embryos as model organisms.

ZnO NPs are known to dissolve at relatively fast rates, and the rate of dissolution is influenced by water chemistry, including the presence of Zn-chelating ligands. A challenge, however, remains in quantifying the dissolution of ZnO NPs, particularly for time scales that are short enough to determine rates. This dissertation assessed the application of anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV) with a hanging mercury drop electrode to directly measure the concentration of dissolved Zn in ZnO NP suspensions, without separation of the ZnO NPs from the aqueous phase. Dissolved zinc concentration measured by ASV ([Zn]ASV) was compared with that measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) after ultracentrifugation ([Zn]ICP-MS), for four types of ZnO NPs with different coatings and primary particle diameters. For small ZnO NPs (4-5 nm), [Zn]ASV was 20% higher than [Zn]ICP-MS, suggesting that these small NPs contributed to the voltammetric measurement. For larger ZnO NPs (approximately 20 nm), [Zn]ASV was (79±19)% of [Zn]ICP-MS, despite the high concentrations of ZnO NPs in suspension, suggesting that ASV can be used to accurately measure the dissolution kinetics of ZnO NPs of this primary particle size.

Using the ASV technique to directly measure dissolved zinc concentration, we examined the effects of 16 different NOM isolates on the dissolution kinetics of ZnO NPs in buffered potassium chloride solution. The observed dissolution rate constants (kobs) and dissolved zinc concentrations at equilibrium increased linearly with NOM concentration (from 0 to 40 mg-C L-1) for Suwannee River humic acid (SRHA), Suwannee River fulvic acid and Pony Lake fulvic acid. When dissolution rates were compared for the 16 NOM isolates, kobs was positively correlated with certain properties of NOM, including specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), aromatic and carbonyl carbon contents, and molecular weight. Dissolution rate constants were negatively correlated to hydrogen/carbon ratio and aliphatic carbon content. The observed correlations indicate that aromatic carbon content is a key factor in determining the rate of NOM-promoted dissolution of ZnO NPs. NOM isolates with higher SUVA were also more effective at enhancing the colloidal stability of the NPs; however, the NOM-promoted dissolution was likely due to enhanced interactions between surface metal ions and NOM rather than smaller aggregate size.

Based on the above results, we designed experiments to quantitatively link the dissolution kinetics and bioavailability of CuO NPs to Gulf killifish embryos under the influence of NOM. The CuO NPs dissolved to varying degrees and at different rates in diluted 5‰ artificial seawater buffered to different pH (6.3-7.5), with or without selected NOM isolates at various concentrations (0.1-10 mg-C L-1). NOM isolates with higher SUVA and aromatic carbon content (such as SRHA) were more effective at promoting the dissolution of CuO NPs, as with ZnO NPs, especially at higher NOM concentrations. On the other hand, the presence of NOM decreased the bioavailability of dissolved Cu ions, with the uptake rate constant negatively correlated to dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) multiplied by SUVA, a combined parameter indicative of aromatic carbon concentration in the media. When the embryos were exposed to CuO NP suspension, changes in their Cu content were due to the uptake of both dissolved Cu ions and nanoparticulate CuO. The uptake rate constant of nanoparticulate CuO was also negatively correlated to [DOC]×SUVA, in a fashion roughly proportional to changes in dissolved Cu uptake rate constant. Thus, the ratio of uptake rate constants from dissolved Cu and nanoparticulate CuO (ranging from 12 to 22, on average 17±4) were insensitive to NOM type or concentration. Instead, the relative contributions of these two Cu forms were largely determined by the percentage of CuO NP that was dissolved.

Overall, this dissertation elucidated the important role that dissolved NOM plays in affecting the environmental fate and bioavailability of soluble metal-based nanomaterials. This dissertation work identified aromatic carbon content and its indicator SUVA as key NOM properties that influence the dissolution, aggregation and biouptake kinetics of metal oxide NPs and highlighted dissolution rate as a useful functional assay for assessing the relative contributions of dissolved and nanoparticulate forms to metal bioavailability. Findings of this dissertation work will be helpful for predicting the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials.

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This research examines three potential mechanisms by which bacteria can adapt to different temperatures: changes in strain-level population structure, gene regulation and particle colonization. For the first two mechanisms, I utilize bacterial strains from the Vibrionaceae family due to their ease of culturability, ubiquity in coastal environments and status as a model system for marine bacteria. I first examine vibrio seasonal dynamics in temperate, coastal water and compare the thermal performance of strains that occupy different thermal environments. Our results suggest that there are tradeoffs in adaptation to specific temperatures and that thermal specialization can occur at a very fine phylogenetic scale. The observed thermal specialization over relatively short evolutionary time-scales indicates that few genes or cellular processes may limit expansion to a different thermal niche. I then compare the genomic and transcriptional changes associated with thermal adaptation in closely-related vibrio strains under heat and cold stress. The two vibrio strains have very similar genomes and overall exhibit similar transcriptional profiles in response to temperature stress but their temperature preferences are determined by differential transcriptional responses in shared genes as well as temperature-dependent regulation of unique genes. Finally, I investigate the temporal dynamics of particle-attached and free-living bacterial community in coastal seawater and find that microhabitats exert a stronger forcing on microbial communities than environmental variability, suggesting that particle-attachment could buffer the impacts of environmental changes and particle-associated communities likely respond to the presence of distinct eukaryotes rather than commonly-measured environmental parameters. Integrating these results will offer new perspectives on the mechanisms by which bacteria respond to seasonal temperature changes as well as potential adaptations to climate change-driven warming of the surface oceans.

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Dynamics of biomolecules over various spatial and time scales are essential for biological functions such as molecular recognition, catalysis and signaling. However, reconstruction of biomolecular dynamics from experimental observables requires the determination of a conformational probability distribution. Unfortunately, these distributions cannot be fully constrained by the limited information from experiments, making the problem an ill-posed one in the terminology of Hadamard. The ill-posed nature of the problem comes from the fact that it has no unique solution. Multiple or even an infinite number of solutions may exist. To avoid the ill-posed nature, the problem needs to be regularized by making assumptions, which inevitably introduce biases into the result.

Here, I present two continuous probability density function approaches to solve an important inverse problem called the RDC trigonometric moment problem. By focusing on interdomain orientations we reduced the problem to determination of a distribution on the 3D rotational space from residual dipolar couplings (RDCs). We derived an analytical equation that relates alignment tensors of adjacent domains, which serves as the foundation of the two methods. In the first approach, the ill-posed nature of the problem was avoided by introducing a continuous distribution model, which enjoys a smoothness assumption. To find the optimal solution for the distribution, we also designed an efficient branch-and-bound algorithm that exploits the mathematical structure of the analytical solutions. The algorithm is guaranteed to find the distribution that best satisfies the analytical relationship. We observed good performance of the method when tested under various levels of experimental noise and when applied to two protein systems. The second approach avoids the use of any model by employing maximum entropy principles. This 'model-free' approach delivers the least biased result which presents our state of knowledge. In this approach, the solution is an exponential function of Lagrange multipliers. To determine the multipliers, a convex objective function is constructed. Consequently, the maximum entropy solution can be found easily by gradient descent methods. Both algorithms can be applied to biomolecular RDC data in general, including data from RNA and DNA molecules.

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The computational modeling of ocean waves and ocean-faring devices poses numerous challenges. Among these are the need to stably and accurately represent both the fluid-fluid interface between water and air as well as the fluid-structure interfaces arising between solid devices and one or more fluids. As techniques are developed to stably and accurately balance the interactions between fluid and structural solvers at these boundaries, a similarly pressing challenge is the development of algorithms that are massively scalable and capable of performing large-scale three-dimensional simulations on reasonable time scales. This dissertation introduces two separate methods for approaching this problem, with the first focusing on the development of sophisticated fluid-fluid interface representations and the second focusing primarily on scalability and extensibility to higher-order methods.

We begin by introducing the narrow-band gradient-augmented level set method (GALSM) for incompressible multiphase Navier-Stokes flow. This is the first use of the high-order GALSM for a fluid flow application, and its reliability and accuracy in modeling ocean environments is tested extensively. The method demonstrates numerous advantages over the traditional level set method, among these a heightened conservation of fluid volume and the representation of subgrid structures.

Next, we present a finite-volume algorithm for solving the incompressible Euler equations in two and three dimensions in the presence of a flow-driven free surface and a dynamic rigid body. In this development, the chief concerns are efficiency, scalability, and extensibility (to higher-order and truly conservative methods). These priorities informed a number of important choices: The air phase is substituted by a pressure boundary condition in order to greatly reduce the size of the computational domain, a cut-cell finite-volume approach is chosen in order to minimize fluid volume loss and open the door to higher-order methods, and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is employed to focus computational effort and make large-scale 3D simulations possible. This algorithm is shown to produce robust and accurate results that are well-suited for the study of ocean waves and the development of wave energy conversion (WEC) devices.

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Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

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Long term management plans for restoration of natural flow conditions through the Everglades increase the importance of understanding potential nutrient impacts of increased freshwater delivery on coastal biogeochemistry. The present study sought to increase understanding of the coastal marine system of South Florida under modern conditions and through the anthropogenic changes in the last century, on scales ranging from individual nutrient cycle processes to seasonal patterns in organic material (OM) under varying hydrodynamic regime, to century scale analysis of sedimentary records. In all applications, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic compositions of OM were examined as natural recorders of change and nutrient cycling in the coastal system. High spatial and temporal variability in stable isotopic compositions were observed on all time scales. During a transient phytoplankton bloom, ä15N values suggested nitrogen fixation as a nutrient source supporting enhanced productivity. Seasonally, particulate organic material (POM) from ten sites along the Florida Reef Tract and in Florida Bay demonstrated variable fluctuations dependent on hydrodynamic setting. Three separate intra-annual patterns were observed, yet statistical differences were observed between groupings of Florida Bay and Atlantic Ocean sites. The POM ä15N values ranged on a quarterly basis by 7‰, while ä13C varied by 22‰. From a sediment history perspective, four cores collected from Florida Bay further demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the system in isotopic composition of bulk OM over time. Source inputs of OM varied with location, with terrestrial inputs dominating proximal to Everglades freshwater discharge, seagrasses dominating in open estuary cores, and a marine mixture of phytoplankton and seagrass in a core from the boundary zone between Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant shifts in OM geochemistry were observed coincident with anthropogenic events of the 20th century, including railroad and road construction in the Florida Keys and Everglades, and also the extensive drainage changes in Everglades hydrology. The sediment record also preserved evidence of the major hurricanes of the last century, with excursions in geochemical composition coincident with Category 4-5 storms.

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Export production is an important component of the carbon cycle, modulating the climate system by transferring CO2 from the atmosphere to the deep ocean via the biological pump. Here we use barite accumulation rates to reconstruct export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 4.3 Ma. We find that export production fluctuated considerably on multiple time scales. Export production was on average higher (51 g C/m**2/yr) during the Pliocene than the Pleistocene (40 g C/m**2/yr), decreasing between 3 and 1 Ma (from more than 60 to 20 g C/m**2/yr) followed by an increase over the last million years. These trends likely reflect basin-scale changes in nutrient inventory and ocean circulation. Our record reveals decoupling between export production and temperatures on these long (million years) time scale. On orbital time scales, export production was generally higher during cold periods (glacial maxima) between 4.3 and 1.1 Ma. This could be due to stronger wind stress and higher upwelling rates during glacial periods. A shift in the timing of maximum export production to deglaciations is seen in the last ~1.1 million years. Results from this study suggest that, in the eastern equatorial Pacific, mechanisms that affect nutrient supply and/or ecosystem structure and in turn carbon export on orbital time scales differ from those operating on longer time scales and that processes linking export production and climate-modulated oceanic conditions changed about 1.1 million years ago. These observations should be accounted for in climate models to ensure better predictions of future climate change.

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The oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the late Quaternary California margin experienced abrupt and dramatic changes in strength and depth in response to changes in intermediate water ventilation, ocean productivity, and climate at orbital through millennial time scales. Expansion and contraction of the OMZ is exhibited at high temporal resolution (107-126 year) by quantitative benthic foraminiferal assemblage changes in two piston cores forming a vertical profile in Santa Barbara Basin (569 m, basin floor; 481 m, near sill depth) to 34 and 24 ka, respectively. Variation in the OMZ is quantified by new benthic foraminiferal groupings and new dissolved oxygen index based on documented relations between species and water-mass oxygen concentrations. Foraminiferal-based paleoenvironmental assessments are integrated with principal component analysis, bioturbation, grain size, CaCO3, total organic carbon, and d13C to reconstruct basin oxygenation history. Fauna responded similarly between the two sites, although with somewhat different magnitude and taxonomic expression. During cool episodes (Younger Dryas and stadials), the water column was well oxygenated, most strongly near the end of the glacial episode (17-16 ka; Heinrich 1). In contrast, the OMZ was strong during warm episodes (Bølling/Allerød, interstadials, and Pre-Boreal). During the Bølling/Allerød, the OMZ shoaled to <360 m of contemporaneous sea level, its greatest vertical expansion of the last glacial cycle. Assemblages were then dominated by Bolivina tumida, reflecting high concentrations of dissolved methane in bottom waters. Short decadal intervals were so severely oxygen-depleted that no benthic foraminifera were present. The middle to late Holocene (6-0 ka) was less dysoxic than the early Holocene.

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Chloropigments and their derivative pheopigments preserved in sediments can directly be linked to photosynthesis. Their carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic compositions have been shown to be a good recorder of recent and past surface ocean environmental conditions tracing the carbon and nitrogen sources and dominant assimilation processes of the phytoplanktonic community. In this study we report results from combined compound-specific radiocarbon and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis to examine the time-scales of synthesis and fate of chlorophyll-a and its degradation products pheophytin-a, pyropheophytin-a, and 132,173-cyclopheophorbide-a-enol until burial in Black Sea core-top sediments. The pigments are mainly of marine phytoplanktonic origin as implied by their stable isotopic compositions. Pigment ?15N values indicate nitrate as the major uptake substrate but 15N-depletion towards the open marine setting indicates either contribution from N2-fixation or direct uptake of ammonium from deeper waters. Radiocarbon concentrations translate into minimum and maximum pigment ages of approximately 40 to 1200 years. This implies that protective mechanisms against decomposition such as association with minerals, storage in deltaic anoxic environments, or eutrophication-induced hypoxia and light limitation are much more efficient than previously thought. Moreover, seasonal variations of nutrient source, growth period, and habitat and their associated isotopic variability are likely at least as strong as long-term trends. Combined triple isotope analysis of sedimentary chlorophyll and its primary derivatives is a powerful tool to delineate biogeochemical and diagenetic processes in the surface water and sediments, and to assess their precise time-scales.

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In this study we demonstrate the relevance of lateral particle transport in nepheloid layers for organic carbon (OC) accumulation and burial across high-productive continental margins. We present geochemical data from surface sediments and suspended particles in the bottom nepheloid layer (BNL) from the most productive coastal upwelling area of the modern ocean, the Benguela upwelling system offshore southwest Africa. Interpretation of depositional patterns and comparison of downslope trends in OC content, organic matter composition, and 14C age between suspended particles and surface sediments indicate that lateral particle transport is the primary mechanism controlling supply and burial of OC. We propose that effective seaward particle transport primarily along the BNL is a key process that promotes and maintains local high sedimentation rates, ultimately causing high preservation of OC in a depocenter on the upper slope offshore Namibia. As lateral transport efficiently displaces areas of enhanced OC burial from maximum production at highly productive continental margins, vertical particle flux models do not sufficiently explain the relationship between primary production and shallow-marine OC burial. On geologic time scales, the widest distribution and strongest intensity of lateral particle transport is expected during periods of rapid sea-level change. At times in the geologic past, widespread downslope lateral transport of OC thus may have been a primary driver of enhanced OC burial at deeper continental slopes and abyssal basins.

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Past glacials can be thought of as natural experiments in which variations in boundary conditions influenced the character of climate change. However, beyond the last glacial, an integrated view of orbital- and millennial-scale changes and their relation to the record of glaciation has been lacking. Here, we present a detailed record of variations in the land-ocean system from the Portuguese margin during the penultimate glacial and place it within the framework of ice-volume changes, with particular reference to European ice-sheet dynamics. The interaction of orbital- and millennial-scale variability divides the glacial into an early part with warmer and wetter overall conditions and prominent climate oscillations, a transitional mid-part, and a late part with more subdued changes as the system entered a maximum glacial state. The most extreme event occurred in the mid-part and was associated with melting of the extensive European ice sheet and maximum discharge from the Fleuve Manche river. This led to disruption of the meridional overturning circulation, but not a major activation of the bipolar seesaw. In addition to stadial duration, magnitude of freshwater forcing, and background climate, the evidence also points to the influence of the location of freshwater discharges on the extent of interhemispheric heat transport.

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Nd isotopes preserved in fossil fish teeth and ferromanganese crusts have become a common tool for tracking variations in water mass composition and circulation through time. Studies of Nd isotopes extracted from Pleistocene to Holocene bulk sediments using hydroxylamine hydrochloride (HH) solution yield high resolution records of Nd isotopes that can be interpreted in terms of deep water circulation, but concerns about diagenesis and potential contamination of the seawater signal limit application of this technique to geologically young samples. In this study we demonstrate that Nd extracted from the > 63 µm, decarbonated fraction of older Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sediments using a 0.02 M HH solution produces Nd isotopic ratios that are within error of values from cleaned fossil fish teeth collected from the same samples, indicating that the HH-extractions are robust recorders of deep sea Nd isotopes. This excellent correlation was achieved for 94 paired fish teeth and HH-extraction samples ranging in age from the Miocene to Cretaceous, distributed throughout the north, tropical and south Atlantic, and composed of a range of lithologies including carbonate-rich oozes/chalks and black shales. The strong Nd signal recovered from Cretaceous anoxic black shale sequences is unlikely to be associated with ferromanganese oxide coatings, but may be derived from abundant phosphatic fish teeth and debris or organic matter in these samples. In contrast to the deep water Nd isotopic signal, Sr isotopes from HH-extractions are often offset from seawater values, suggesting that evaluation of Sr isotopes is a conservative test for the integrity of Nd isotopes in the HH fraction. However, rare earth elements (REE) from the HH-extractions and fish teeth produce distinctive middle REE bulge patterns that may prove useful for evaluating whether the Nd isotopic signal represents uncontaminated seawater. Alternatively, a few paired HH-extraction and cleaned fish teeth samples from each site of interest can be used to verify the seawater composition of the HH-extractions. The similarity between isotopic values for the HH-extraction and fish teeth illustrates that the extensive cleaning protocol applied to fish teeth samples is not necessary in typical, carbonate-rich, deep sea sediments.

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Stable isotope, trace metal, alkenone paleothermometry, and radiocarbon methods have been applied to sediment cores in the western subpolar North Atlantic between Hudson Strait and Cape Hatteras to reveal the history of climate in that region over the past ~11 kyr. We focus on cores from the Laurentian Fan, which is known to have rapid and continuous accumulation of hemipelagic sediment. Although results among our various proxy data are not always in agreement, the weight of the evidence (alkenone sea surface temperature (SST), d18O and abundance of Globigerinoides ruber) indicates a continual cooling of surface waters over Laurentian Fan, from about 18°C in the early Holocene to about 8°C today. Alternatively, Mg/Ca data on planktonic foraminifera indicate no systematic change in Holocene SST. The inferred long-term decrease in SST was probably driven by decreasing seasonality of Northern Hemisphere insolation. Two series of proxy data show the gradual cooling was interrupted by a two-step cold pulse that began 8500 years ago, and lasted about 700 years. Although this event is associated with the final deglaciation of Hudson Bay, there is no d18O minimum anywhere in the Labrador Sea, yet there is some evidence for it as far south as Cape Hatteras. Finally, although the 8200 year B.P. event has been implicated in decreasing North Atlantic ventilation, and hence widespread temperature depression on land and at sea, we find inconsistent evidence for a change at that time in deep ocean nutrient content at ~4 km water depth.

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The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910±12, 1812±18, 1725±25 and 1580±30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales.