Paleolimnological evidence for increased landslide activity due to forest clearing and land-use since 3600 cal BP in the western Swiss Alps

Schwarzsee is located in the western Swiss Alps, in a region that has been affected by numerous landslides during the Holocene, as evidenced by geological surveys. Lacustrine sediments were cored to a depth of 13 m. The vegetation history of the lake's catchment was reconstructed and investigated to identify possible impacts on slope stability. The pollen analyses record development of forest cover during the middle and late Holocene, and provide strong evidence for regional anthropogenic influence such as forest clearing and agricultural activity. Vegetation change is characterized by continuous landscape denudation that begins at ca. 4300 cal. yrs BP, with five distinct pulses of increased deforestation, at 3650, 2700, 1500, 900, and 450 cal. yrs BP. Each pulse can be attributed to increased human impact, recorded by the appearance or increase of specific anthropogenic indicator plant taxa. These periods of intensified deforestation also appear to be correlated with increased landslide activity in the lake's catchment and increased turbidite frequency in the sediment record. Therefore, this study gives new evidence for a strong influence of vegetation changes on slope stability during the middle and late Holocene in the western Swiss Alps, and may be used as a case study for anthropogenically induced landslide activity.

Evolution of 1996-1999 La Niña and El Niño Conditions Off the Western Coast of South America: A Remote Sensing Perspective

We present the evolution of oceanographic conditions off the western coast of South America between 1996 and 1999, including the cold periods of 1996 and 1998-1999 and the 1997-1998 El Niño, using satellite observations of sea level, winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll concentration. Following a period of cold SST and low sea levels in 1996, both were anomalously high between March 1997 and May 1998. The anomalies were greatest between 5 degrees S and 15 degrees S, although they extended beyond 40 degrees S. Two distinct peaks in sea level and SST occurred in June-July 1997 and December 1997 to January 1998, separated by a relaxation period (August-November) of weaker anomalies. Satellite winds were upwelling favorable throughout the time period for most of the region and in fact increased between November 1997 and March 1998 between 5 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Satellite-derived chlorophyll concentrations are available for November 1996 to June 1997 (Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS)) and then from October 1997 to present (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS)). Near-surface chlorophyll concentrations fell from May to June 1997 and from December 1997 to March 1998. The decrease was more pronounced in northern Chile than off the coast of Peru or central Chile and was stronger for larger cross-shelf averaging bins since nearshore concentrations remained relatively high.

Bursting Boilers and the Federal Power Redux: The Evolution of Safety on the Western Rivers

Using newly constructed data series on explosions, deaths, and steamboat traffic, we examine econometrically the causes of increased safety in steamboat boilers in the nineteenth century. Although the law of 1852 (but not that of 1838) did have a dramatic initial effect in reducing explosions, that reduction came against the background not of a system out of control but of a system that from the beginning was steadily increasing boiler safety per person- mile. The role of the federal government in conducting and disseminating basic research on boiler technology may have been more significant for increased safety than its explicit regulatory efforts.

A PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN CAYO DISTRICT, BELIZE (DISEASE)

A demonstration project entailing disease surveillance was conducted in the western Cayo District, Belize, from November 1981 to March 1982. The purpose was to test and demonstrate the feasibility of community-based surveillance. Interviews were conducted in three hundred twenty households at monthly intervals over a five-month period. Information regarding disease prevalence and medical care utilization relevant to public health practice was analyzed by staff attached to the health center in Benque Viejo. Data collected at the health center were used to validate reported findings.^ Differences between reported and actual study findings regarding clinic visits were small, though in many instances statistically significant. The proportion of underreported clinic visits was greater than the proportion overreported. Overall, reporting accuracy improved with time, particularly from the first to second month. Clinic utilization experience reported for men was as accurate as that reported for females.^ There was agreement between interview and clinic disease findings. In fact, the proportion of conditions defined in the interview and matched to clinic findings was high (malaria, diarrhea, dysentery, skin sores and ulcerations, and problems of nutrition) except for upper respiratory disorders. Finally, some conditions were more likely to be taken to the health center than others, e.g., children with diarrhea or skin sores and ulcerations were less likely to be taken to the health center than if they had malaria. ^

Benthic foraminiferal stable isotope record from ODP Site 138-849 on the East Pacific Rise

Benthic foraminifer and delta13C data from Site 849, on the west flank of the East Pacific Rise (0°11 'N, 110°31'W; 3851 m), give relatively continuous records of deep Pacific Ocean stable isotope variations between 0 and 5 Ma. The mean sample spacing is 4 k.y. Most analyses are from Cibicides wuellerstorfi, but isotopic offsets relative to Uvigerina peregrina appear roughly constant. Because of its location west of the East Pacific Rise, Site 849 yields a suitable record of mean Pacific Ocean delta13C, which approximates a global oceanic signal. The ~100-k.y.-period climate cycle, which is prevalent in delta18O does not dominate the long-term delta13C record. For delta13C, variations in the ~400- and 41-k.y. periods are more important. Phase lags of delta13C relative to ice volume in the 41- and 23-k.y. bands are consistent with delta13C as a measure of organic biomass. A model-calculated exponential response time of 1-2 k.y. is appropriate for carbon stored in soils and shallow sediments responding to glacial-interglacial climate change. Oceanic delta13C leads ice volume slightly in the 100-k.y. band, and this suggests another process such as changes in continental weathering to modulate mean river delta13C at long periods. The delta13C record from Site 849 diverges from that of Site 677 in the Panama Basin mostly because of decay of 13C-depleted organic carbon in the relatively isolated Panama Basin. North Atlantic to Pacific delta13C differences calculated using published data from Sites 607 and 849 reveal variations in Pliocene deep water within the range of those of the late Quaternary. Maximum delta13C contrast between these sites, which presumably reflects maximum influx of high-delta13C northern source water into the deep North Atlantic Ocean, occurred between 1.3 and 2.1 Ma, well after the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Export of high-delta13C North Atlantic Deep Water from the Atlantic to the circumpolar Antarctic, as recorded by published delta13C data from Subantarctic Site 704, appears unrelated to the North Atlantic-Pacific delta13C contrast. To account for this observation, we suggest that deep-water formation in the North Atlantic reflects northern source characteristics, whereas export of this water into the circumpolar Antarctic reflects Southern Hemisphere wind forcing. Neither process appears directly linked to ice-volume variations.

Accumulation rates of volcanic glass and ice-rafted debris in sediments of the North Pacific Ocean

Mass accumulation rates (MAR) of different components of North Pacific deep-sea sediment provide detailed information about the timing of the onset of major Northern Hemisphere glaciation that occurred at 2.65 Ma. An increase in explosive volcanism in the Kamchatka-Kurile and Aleutian arcs occured at this same time, suggesting a link between volcanism and glaciation. Sediments recovered by piston-coring techniques during ODP Leg 145 provide a unique opportunity to undertake a detailed test of this possibility. Here we use volcanic glass as a proxy for explosive volcanism and ice-rafted debris (IRD) as a proxy for glaciation. The MAR of both glass and IRD increase markedly at 2.65 Ma. Further, the flux of the volcanic glass increased just prior the flix of ice-radted material, suggesting that the cooling resulting from explosive volcanic eruptions may have been the ultimate trigger for the mid-Pliocene glacial intensification.