Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions

Tests for business cycle asymmetries are developed for Markov-switching autoregressive models. The tests of deepness, steepness, and sharpness are Wald statistics, which have standard asymptotics. For the standard two-regime model of expansions and contractions, deepness is shown to imply sharpness (and vice versa), whereas the process is always nonsteep. Two and three-state models of U.S. GNP growth are used to illustrate the approach, along with models of U.S. investment and consumption growth. The robustness of the tests to model misspecification, and the effects of regime-dependent heteroscedasticity, are investigated.

Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

Testing the Revised Hierarchical Model: evidence from word associations

The main purpose of the work described in this paper is to examine the extent to which the L2 developmental changes predicted by Kroll and Stewart's (1994) Revised Hierarchical Model (RHM) can be understood by word association response behaviour. The RHM attempts to account for the relative “strength of the links between words and concepts in each of the bilingual's languages” (Kroll, Van Hell, Tokowicz & Green, 2010, p. 373). It proposes that bilinguals with higher L2 proficiency tend to rely less on mediation, while less proficient L2 learners tend to rely on mediation and access L2 words by translating from L1 equivalents. In this paper, I present findings from a simple word association task. More proficient learners provided a greater proportion of collocational links, suggesting that they mediate less when compared to less proficient learners. The results provide tentative support for Kroll and Stewart's model

Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s.

Testing for non-linearity in daily sterling exchange rates

A number of tests for non-linear dependence in time series are presented and implemented on a set of 10 daily sterling exchange rates covering the entire post Bretton-Woods era until the present day. Irrefutable evidence of non-linearity is shown in many of the series, but most of this dependence can apparently be explained by reference to the GARCH family of models. It is suggested that the literature in this area has reached an impasse, with the presence of ARCH effects clearly demonstrated in a large number of papers, but with the tests for non-linearity which are currently available being unable to classify any additional non-linear structure.

Testing for unit roots in bounded time series

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which are valid in the presence of bounds. We present new augmented Dickey–Fuller type tests as well as new versions of the modified ‘M’ tests developed by Ng and Perron [Ng, S., Perron, P., 2001. LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69, 1519–1554] and demonstrate how these tests, combined with a simulation-based method to retrieve the relevant critical values, make it possible to control size asymptotically. A Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposed tests perform well in finite samples. Moreover, the tests outperform the Phillips–Perron type tests originally proposed in Cavaliere [Cavaliere, G., 2005. Limited time series with a unit root. Econometric Theory 21, 907–945]. An illustrative application to U.S. interest rate data is provided

Investigating the level of awareness of building assessment tools in the construction industry of Botswana

Environmental building assessment tools have been developed to measure how well or poorly a building is performing, or likely to perform, against a declared set of criteria, or environmental considerations, in order to achieve sustainability principles. Knowledge of environmental building assessment tools is therefore important for successful design and construction of environmentally friendly buildings for countries. The purpose of the research is to investigate the knowledge and level of awareness of environmental building assessment tools among industry practitioners in Botswana. One hundred and seven paper-based questionnaires were delivered to industry practitioners, including architects, engineers, quantity surveyors, real estate developers and academics. Users were asked what they know about building assessment, whether they have used any building assessment tool in the past, and what they perceive as possible barriers to the implementation of environmental building assessment tools in Botswana. Sixty five were returned and statistical analysis, using IBM SPSS V19 software, was used for analysis. Almost 85 per cent of respondents indicate that they are extremely or moderately aware of environmental design. Furthermore, the results indicate that 32 per cent of respondents have gone through formal training, which suggests ‘reasonable knowledge’. This however does not correspond with the use of the tools on the ground as 69 per cent of practitioners report never to have used any environmental building assessment tool in any project. The study highlights the need to develop an assessment tool for Botswana to enhance knowledge and further improve the level of awareness of environmental issues relating to building design and construction.

Testing substorm theories: The need for multipoint observations

The requirement for multipoint observations to test theories of magnetospheric substorms is reviewed. A wide variety of such theories have been proposed, but these cannot be properly evaluated because we do not understand how the various features of a substorm are causally linked. In terms of explaining certain substorm features, some theories may be mutually-exclusive rivals. But this is not always the case, making it possible that theories may be either combined into a synthesis model or loosely connected in a more modular view of substorms. Some key questions are defined which require multipoint in-situ measurements, combined with remote sensing observations, of the development and relationship of the major substorm features.

High-level face adaptation without awareness

When a visual stimulus is suppressed from awareness, processing of the suppressed image is necessarily reduced. Although adaptation to simple image properties such as orientation still occurs, adaptation to high-level properties such as face identity is eliminated. Here we show that emotional facial expression continues to be processed even under complete suppression, as indexed by substantial facial expression aftereffects.

Faces and awareness: low-level, not emotional factors determine perceptual dominance

Threat-relevant stimuli such as fear faces are prioritized by the human visual system. Recent research suggests that this prioritization begins during unconscious processing: A specialized (possibly subcortical) pathway evaluates the threat relevance of visual input, resulting in preferential access to awareness for threat stimuli. Our data challenge this claim. We used a continuous flash suppression (CFS) paradigm to present emotional face stimuli outside of awareness. It has been shown using CFS that salient (e.g., high contrast) and recognizable stimuli (faces, words) become visible more quickly than less salient or less recognizable stimuli. We found that although fearful faces emerge from suppression faster than other faces, this was wholly explained by their low-level visual properties, rather than their emotional content. We conclude that, in the competition for visual awareness, the visual system prefers and promotes unconscious stimuli that are more “face-like,” but the emotional content of a face has no effect on stimulus salience.

The EU societal awareness of landscape indicator: a review of its meaning, utility and performance across different scales

There is increasing recognition that agricultural landscapes meet multiple societal needs and demands beyond provision of economic and environmental goods and services. Accordingly, there have been significant calls for the inclusion of societal, amenity and cultural values in agri-environmental landscape indicators to assist policy makers in monitoring the wider impacts of land-based policies. However, capturing the amenity and cultural values that rural agrarian areas provide, by use of such indicators, presents significant challenges. The EU social awareness of landscape indicator represents a new class of generalized social indicator using a top-down methodology to capture the social dimensions of landscape without reference to the specific structural and cultural characteristics of individual landscapes. This paper reviews this indicator in the context of existing agri-environmental indicators and their differing design concepts. Using a stakeholder consultation approach in five case study regions, the potential and limitations of the indicator are evaluated, with a particular focus on its perceived meaning, utility and performance in the context of different user groups and at different geographical scales. This analysis supplements previous EU-wide assessments, through regional scale assessment of the limitations and potentialities of the indicator and the need for further data collection. The evaluation finds that the perceived meaning of the indicator does not vary with scale, but in common with all mapped indicators, the usefulness of the indicator, to different user groups, does change with scale of presentation. This indicator is viewed as most useful when presented at the scale of governance at which end users operate. The relevance of the different sub-components of the indicator are also found to vary across regions.

Typographic layout and first impressions: testing how changes in text layout influence reader's judgments of documents

This study explores how the typographic layout of information influences readers' impressions of magazine contents pages. Thirteen descriptors were used in a paired comparison procedure that assessed whether participants' rhetorical impressions of a set of six controlled documents change in relation to variations in layout. The combinations of layout attributes tested were derived from the structural attributes associated with three patterns of typographic differentiation (high, moderate, and low) described in a previous study (see Moys, 2014). The content and the range of stylistic attributes applied to the test material were controlled in order to focus on layout attributes. Triangulation of the quantitative and qualitative data indicates that, even within the experimental confines of limited stylistic differentiation, the layout attributes associated with patterns of high, moderate, and low typographic differentiation do influence readers' rhetorical judgments. In addition, the findings emphasize the importance of considering inter-relationships between clusters of typographic attributes rather than testing isolated variables.

Want to block earworms from conscious awareness?B(u)y gum!

Three experiments examine the role of articulatory motor planning in experiencing an involuntary musical recollection (an “earworm”). Experiment 1 shows that interfering with articulatory motor programming by chewing gum reduces both the number of voluntary and the number of involuntary—unwanted—musical thoughts. This is consistent with other findings that chewing gum interferes with voluntary processes such as recollections from verbal memory, the interpretation of ambiguous auditory images, and the scanning of familiar melodies, but is not predicted by theories of thought suppression, which assume that suppression is made more difficult by concurrent tasks or cognitive loads. Experiment 2 shows that chewing the gum affects the experience of “hearing” the music and cannot be ascribed to a general effect on thinking about a tune only in abstract terms. Experiment 3 confirms that the reduction of musical recollections by chewing gum is not the consequence of a general attentional or dual-task demand. The data support a link between articulatory motor programming and the appearance in consciousness of both voluntary and unwanted musical recollections.