Temporal and statistical information in causal structure learning

Three experiments examined children’s and adults’ abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a three-variable mechanical system that operated probabilistically. Participants of all ages preferentially relied on the temporal pattern of events in their inferences, even if this conflicted with statistical information. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants observed a series of interventions on the system, which in these experiments operated deterministically. In Experiment 2, participants found it easier to use temporal pattern information than statistical information provided as a result of interventions. In Experiment 3, in which no temporal pattern information was provided, children from 6-7 years, but not younger children, were able to use intervention information to make causal chain judgments, although they had difficulty when the structure was a common cause. The findings suggest that participants, and children in particular, may find it more difficult to use statistical information than temporal pattern information because of its demands on information processing resources. However, there may also be an inherent preference for temporal information.

The development of Temporal Cognition

Time features in two key ways in cognition, each of which is discussed in turn in this chapter: time is processed as a dimension of stimuli or events, and time is represented as a framework in which events can be located. Section 1 examines the first of these from a developmental perspective, by reviewing research on age-related changes in the accuracy of duration processing. The Piagetian approach linked changes in duration processing to the development of a concept of time as a dimension of events separable from other event dimensions. This is contrasted with recent research conducted within the framework of Scalar Expectancy Theory, which models development in terms of changes in components of specialized timing mechanisms. Section 2 discusses developmental changes in the temporal frameworks that children use to represent the locations of events. Although as adults, we represent times as locations on a linear framework stretching from the past, to the present, and into the future, this way of representing time is not developmentally basic. A model is proposed of developmental stages in the acquisition of a mature temporal framework. The chapter concludes by considering two themes that cut across Section 1 and 2: the issue of whether there are both qualitative and quantitative change in children’s temporal abilities, and the link between temporal and spatial cognition.

Resistance is Feral: Digital Culture, Community Arts, and the New Cultural Gatekeepers

The Community Arts sector in Australia has a history of resistance. It has challenged hegemonic culture through facilitating grassroots creative production, contesting notions of artistic processes, and the role of the artist in society. This paper examines this penchant for resistance through the lens of contemporary digital culture, to establish that the sector is continuing to challenge dominant forms of cultural control. It then proposes that this enthusiasm and activity lacks ethical direction, describing it as feral to encompass the potential of current practices, while highlighting how a level of taming is needed in order to develop ethical approaches.

Visualising Invisible Networks as Collaborative Arts Practice

This paper examines approaches to the visualisation of ‘invisible’ communications networks. It situates network visualisation as a critical design exercise, and explores how community artists might use such a practice to develop telematic art projects – works that use communications networks as their medium. The paper’s hypotheses are grounded in the Australian community media arts field, but could be applied to other collaborative contexts.

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Soil Organic Carbon Assessment using an Integrated Geostatistical and Compositional Data Analysis Approach

The Irish and UK governments, along with other countries, have made a commitment to limit the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by reducing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. This can be achieved (in part) through increasing the sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere including monitoring the amount stored in vegetation and soils. A large proportion of soil carbon is held within peat due to the relatively high carbon density of peat and organic-rich soils. This is particularly important for a country such as Ireland, where some 16% of the land surface is covered by peat. For Northern Ireland, it has been estimated that the total amount of carbon stored in vegetation is 4.4Mt compared to 386Mt stored within peat and soils. As a result it has become increasingly important to measure and monitor changes in stores of carbon in soils. The conservation and restoration of peat covered areas, although ongoing for many years, has become increasingly important. This is summed up in current EU policy outlined by the European Commission (2012) which seeks to assess the relative contributions of the different inputs and outputs of organic carbon and organic matter to and from soil. Results are presented from the EU-funded Tellus Border Soil Carbon Project (2011 to 2013) which aimed to improve current estimates of carbon in soil and peat across Northern Ireland and the bordering counties of the Republic of Ireland.
Historical reports and previous surveys provide baseline data. To monitor change in peat depth and soil organic carbon, these historical data are integrated with more recently acquired airborne geophysical (radiometric) data and ground-based geochemical data generated by two surveys, the Tellus Project (2004-2007: covering Northern Ireland) and the EU-funded Tellus Border project (2011-2013) covering the six bordering counties of the Republic of Ireland, Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth. The concept being applied is that saturated organic-rich soil and peat attenuate gamma-radiation from underlying soils and rocks. This research uses the degree of spatial correlation (coregionalization) between peat depth, soil organic carbon (SOC) and the attenuation of the radiometric signal to update a limited sampling regime of ground-based measurements with remotely acquired data. To comply with the compositional nature of the SOC data (perturbations of loss on ignition [LOI] data), a compositional data analysis approach is investigated. Contemporaneous ground-based measurements allow corroboration for the updated mapped outputs. This provides a methodology that can be used to improve estimates of soil carbon with minimal impact to sensitive habitats (like peat bogs), but with maximum output of data and knowledge.

Community Arts and Appropriate Internet Technology: Participation, Materiality, and the Ethics of Sustainability in the Digitally Networked Era

This thesis establishes appropriate internet technology as a matter of sustainability for the community arts field. It begins with a contextual review that historicises community art in relation to technological, cultural, and political change. It goes on to identify key challenges for the field resulting from the emerging socio-cultural significance of the internet and digital media technologies. A conceptual review of the literature positions these issues in relation to Internet Studies, integrating key concepts from Software Studies and the computational turn with approaches from the fields of ICT for Development (ICT4D), Critical Design, and Critical Making. Grounded in these intersecting literatures the thesis offers a new pragmatic ethics of appropriate internet technology: one involving an alternative philosophical platform from which suitable internet-based technologies can be designed and assembled by practitioners. I interrogate these ideas through an in-depth investigation of CuriousWorks, an Australian community arts organisation, focusing on their current internet practices. The thesis then reflects on some experimental interventions I designed as part of the study for the purpose of provoking shifts in the field of community arts. The research findings form the foundation of a series of recommendations offered to practitioners and policy makers that may guide their critical and creative uses of internet technologies in the future.

Expansion of pulse responses from temporal analysis of products (TAP) pulse responses for more accurate data analysis

TAP pulse responses are normally analysed using moments, which are integrals of the full TAP pulse response. However, in some cases the entire pulse response may not be recorded due to technical reasons, thereby compromising any data analysis due to moments generated from incomplete pulse responses. The current work discloses the development of a function which mathematically expands the tail of a TAP pulse response, so that the TAP data analysis can be accurately conducted. This newly developed analysis method has been applied to the oxidative dehydrogenation of ethane over Co–Cr–Sn–WOx/α-Al2O3 and Co–Cr–Sn–WOx/α-Al2O3 catalysts as a case study.

Temporal changes in the diet of Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula overwintering at Lough Neagh

Numbers of Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula wintering at Lough Neagh declined dramatically following the winter of 2000/01. The abundance and biomass of benthic macroinvertebrates, their main food source, declined significantly between the winters of 1997/98 and 2010. Therefore, information on recent diet was required to determine if there had been any significant changes before and after the observed declines in numbers of both macroinvertebrates and birds. Here, we used oesophageal content analysis to characterise the contemporary diet of Tufted Ducks at Lough Neagh during 2010-12. Out of 75 shot ducks, only three individuals had prey items in their oesophagi while all four ducks that accidentally drowned in gill nets contained prey items. Oesophageal contents were then compared with data collected during a study conducted in the late 1990s. Contemporary diet of Tufted Ducks was dominated by Asellus aquaticus (48%), but molluscs (14%), grain (13%) and chironomid larvae (11%) were also consumed. Between 1998-99 and 2010-12, the contribution of Asellus aquaticus to the diet significantly decreased while the proportions of chironomid larvae, grain, Gammarus spp. and Mysis spp. increased. Alternative methods of dietary analysis, for example stable isotope analysis, are recommended in future studies of diving duck diet at Lough Neagh.

Three Types of Temporal Perspective: Characterizing Developmental Changes in Temporal Thought

This paper provides an outline of the development of temporal thinking that is underpinned by the idea that temporal cognition shifts from being event dependent to event independent over the preschool period. I distinguish between three different ways in which it may be possible to have a perspective on time: (1) a perspective that is grounded in script-like representations of repeated events; (2) a more sophisticated perspective that brings in an fundamental categorical distinction between events that have already happened and events that are yet to come; and (3) a mature temporal perspective that involves orienting oneself in time using a linear temporal framework, with a grasp of the distinctions between past, present, and future. I propose that, with development, children possess each of these types of perspective in turn, and that only the last of these involves being able to represent time in an event-independent way.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

Arts Council Ballet Policy Review

In May 2006 the Arts Council commissioned an independent review of the context and issues affecting professional ballet in Ireland. The findings were subsequently collated in a policy paper entitled Towards a Strategy of Support for Professional Ballet in Ireland, which was published in 2007 and adopted by the Council in the same year. The report acknowledged ballet as an integral part of cultural life and its importance to the development of many forms of professional dance. The document set forth a number of recommendations that have since formed the basis of art-form policy and funding relationships with ballet organisations.
In parallel since then, a number of important changes have taken place within the ballet sector. Some of these changes are the inevitable consequences of these difficult financial times. However, despite these funding challenges, the sector has managed to retain its vibrancy and popularity with national audiences. While the sector continues to evolve, the limited financial resources available to the Council have become an obstacle to implementing the road map envisioned in 2007. Given its significance and popularity, ballet remains an extraordinarily underdeveloped art form in Ireland. A key weakness of the sector is that future development of ballet provision remains fundamentally uncertain and is still overly dependent on the personal and professional commitment of a few individuals.
This review aims to analyse the current situation, discuss and consider how matters might be progressed and to propose a comprehensive framework for the development of ballet in Ireland. The purpose of the review is to provide an objective point of reference for the Arts Council‘s medium- term ballet policy and to inform and guide future public investment in the art form. The review also intends to progress the work undertaken since 2007 in response to the document Towards a Strategy of Support for Professional Ballet in Ireland.
Within a wider perspective, the review is expected to provide compelling evidence of ballet's relevance to Irish cultural life. It will also create an opportunity for the Council to engage with relevant stakeholders with a view to addressing the challenge of how best to provide for ballet on a sustainable basis within the context of a changed financial environment and an evolving professional sector. There is reason to expect this review will also assist the sector in giving voice to its aspirations and needs. This would certainly assist the Council in garnering support for a blueprint for the consolidation of professional ballet practice and education in Ireland.
It is envisioned the ballet policy review will be closely aligned to the Arts Council‘s own high-level objectives and will take account of developments that may arise from the broader process of strategic review the Council will undertake in 2014.

Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Post-Conflict Performance, Film and Visual Arts:Cities of Memory

This book examines how contemporary theatre, performance, film and the visual arts respond to the post-conflict condition. The contents of the volume focus on a range of post-conflict cities, encouraging interdisciplinary discussion on the role of the arts and its relation to issues of testimony, witnessing, forgetting, representation, healing, reconciliation, agency, and metaphor. Contributors include: Thomas Elsaesser, Jane Taylor, Marvin Carlson, Rob Stone, Laurel Borisenko, Katarzyna Puzon, Miriam Paeslack, Emma Grey, Paula Blair, Zoran Poposki, Marija Todorova, Elena Carduro, and Paul Devlin.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.