Essays on oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic activity

Dans cette thèse, je me suis intéressé aux effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur l'activité macroéconomique selon la cause sous-jacente ces fluctuations. Les modèles économiques utilisés dans cette thèse sont principalement les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (de l'anglais Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) et les modèles Vecteurs Autorégressifs, VAR. Plusieurs études ont examiné les effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur les principaux variables macroéconomiques, mais très peu d'entre elles ont fait spécifiquement le lien entre les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole et la l'origine de ces fluctuations. Pourtant, il est largement admis dans les études plus récentes que les augmentations du prix du pétrole peuvent avoir des effets très différents en fonction de la cause sous-jacente de cette augmentation. Ma thèse, structurée en trois chapitres, porte une attention particulière aux sources de fluctuations du prix de pétrole et leurs impacts sur l'activité macroéconomique en général, et en particulier sur l'économie du Canada. Le premier chapitre examine comment les chocs d'offre de pétrole, de demande agrégée, et de demande de précaution de pétrole affectent l'économie du Canada, dans un Modèle d'équilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique estimé. L'estimation est réalisée par la méthode Bayésienne, en utilisant des données trimestrielles canadiennes sur la période 1983Q1 à 2010Q4. Les résultats montrent que les effets dynamiques des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les principaux agrégats macro-économiques canadiens varient en fonction de leurs sources. En particulier, une augmentation de 10% du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs positifs sur la demande globale étrangère a un effet positif significatif de l'ordre de 0,4% sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact et l'effet reste positif sur tous les horizons. En revanche, une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs négatifs sur l'offre de pétrole ou par des chocs positifs de la demande de pétrole de précaution a un effet négligeable sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact, mais provoque une baisse légèrement significative après l'impact. En outre, parmi les chocs pétroliers identifiés, les chocs sur la demande globale étrangère ont été relativement plus important pour expliquer la fluctuation des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques du Canada au cours de la période d'estimation. Le deuxième chapitre utilise un modèle Structurel VAR en Panel pour examiner les liens entre les chocs de demande et d'offre de pétrole et les ajustements de la demande de travail et des salaires dans les industries manufacturières au Canada. Le modèle est estimé sur des données annuelles désagrégées au niveau industriel sur la période de 1975 à 2008. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'un choc positif de demande globale a un effet positif sur la demande de travail et les salaires, à court terme et à long terme. Un choc négatif sur l'offre de pétrole a un effet négatif relativement faible au moment de l'impact, mais l'effet devient positif après la première année. En revanche, un choc positif sur la demande précaution de pétrole a un impact négatif à tous les horizons. Les estimations industrie-par-industrie confirment les précédents résultats en panel. En outre, le papier examine comment les effets des différents chocs pétroliers sur la demande travail et les salaires varient en fonction du degré d'exposition commerciale et de l'intensité en énergie dans la production. Il ressort que les industries fortement exposées au commerce international et les industries fortement intensives en énergie sont plus vulnérables aux fluctuations du prix du pétrole causées par des chocs d'offre de pétrole ou des chocs de demande globale. Le dernier chapitre examine les implications en terme de bien-être social de l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole sur le marché mondial à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de trois pays dont deux pays importateurs de pétrole et un pays exportateur de pétrole. Les gains de bien-être sont mesurés par la variation compensatoire de la consommation sous deux règles de politique monétaire. Les principaux résultats montrent que l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole a des effets négatifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans chacun des deux pays importateurs de pétrole, alors qu'il a des effets positifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans le pays exportateur de pétrole, quelle que soit la règle de politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, l'inclusion de la dépréciation du taux de change dans les règles de politique monétaire permet de réduire les coûts sociaux pour les pays importateurs de pétrole. Enfin, l'ampleur des effets de bien-être dépend du niveau d'inventaire en pétrole à l'état stationnaire et est principalement expliquée par les chocs sur les inventaires en pétrole.

Développement de nouveaux polymères amphiphiles comme floculants versatiles pour le traitement de l’eau issue de l’industrie pétrolière

Les polymères hydrosolubles sont utilisés dans diverses industries pour permettre la floculation, soit une séparation solide-liquide de particules présentes en suspension colloïdale. Afin de réduire les impacts environnementaux de l’exploitation des sables bitumineux en Alberta, l’industrie est à la recherche de nouveaux moyens et procédés pour traiter les résidus miniers permettant de séparer les matières solides et de récupérer l’eau. L’objectif des travaux présentés est d’améliorer la floculation, la densification et la déshydratation de ces résidus miniers aqueux par de nouveaux polymères synthétiques. Des homopolymères d’acrylamide de différentes masses molaires ont été synthétisés pour étudier l’influence de la masse molaire sur l’efficacité de floculation. Le taux initial de sédimentation (TIS) est le paramètre qui fut utilisé afin de comparer l’efficacité de floculation des différents polymères. Il a été possible de confirmer l’importance de la masse molaire sur l’efficacité de floculation et de déterminer une masse molaire minimale d’environ 6 MDa pour des polyacrylamides, afin d’obtenir l’efficacité de floculation maximale de suspensions colloïdales principalement composées de kaolin. Afin d’étudier l’effet des charges sur l’efficacité de floculation, des polymères anioniques et cationiques ont été synthétisés. Une série de copolymères d’acrylamide et d’acide acrylique ont été synthétisés comme polymères anioniques et deux séries de copolymères ont été synthétisés comme polymères cationiques, soit des copolymères d’acrylamide et de chlorure de diallyldiméthylammonium et des copolymères de 4-vinyl pyridine et de 1-méthyl-4-vinyl pyridinium. Il a été démontré que les charges anioniques des polymères avaient peu d’influence sur l’efficacité de floculation et que leur comportement en présence de sels était différent de ce que prévoyait la littérature. Il a aussi été démontré que les charges cationiques des polymères n’améliorent pas l’efficacité de floculation. Par la suite, des séries de copolymères amphiphiles, avec des monomères d’acrylamide, de N-alkylacrylamides et d’acrylonitrile, ont été synthétisés, pour étudier l’effet du caractère amphiphile sur la déshydratation des résidus miniers. Le pourcentage de déshydratation nette est le paramètre qui fut utilisé afin de comparer l’efficacité de déshydratation des différents polymères. Il a été possible de développer des copolymères amphiphiles qui améliorent l’efficacité de déshydratation par rapport à des homopolymères d’acrylamide. Il ne fut pas possible de déterminer une tendance entre la balance hydrophile/hydrophobe des copolymères amphiphiles et l’efficacité de déshydratation.

Plasma Polymerised Organic Thin Films-A Study on the Structural, Electrical and Nonlinear Optical Properties for Possible Applications

This proposed thesis is entitled “Plasma Polymerised Organic Thin Films: A study on the Structural, Electrical, and Nonlinear Optical Properties for Possible Applications. Polymers and polymer based materials find enormous applications in the realm of electronics and optoelectronics. They are employed as both active and passive components in making various devices. Enormous research activities are going on in this area for the last three decades or so, and many useful contributions are made quite accidentally. Conducting polymers is such a discovery, and eversince the discovery of conducting polyacetylene, a new branch of science itself has emerged in the form of synthetic metals. Conducting polymers are useful materials for many applications like polymer displays, high density data storage, polymer FETs, polymer LEDs, photo voltaic devices and electrochemical cells. With the emergence of molecular electronics and its potential in finding useful applications, organic thin films are receiving an unusual attention by scientists and engineers alike. This is evident from the vast literature pertaining to this field appearing in various journals. Recently, computer aided design of organic molecules have added further impetus to the ongoing research activities in this area. Polymers, especially, conducting polymers can be prepared both in the bulk and in the thinfilm form. However, many applications necessitate that they are grown in the thin film form either as free standing or on appropriate substrates. As far as their bulk counterparts are concerned, they can be prepared by various polymerisation techniques such as chemical routes and electrochemical means. A survey of the literature reveals that polymers like polyaniline, polypyrrole, polythiophene, have been investigated with a view to studying their structural electrical and optical properties. Among the various alternate techniques employed for the preparation of polymer thin films, the method of plasma polymerisation needs special attention in this context. The technique of plasma polymerisation is an inexpensive method and often requires very less infra structure. This method includes the employment of ac, rf, dc, microwave and pulsed sources. They produce pinhole free homogeneous films on appropriate substrates under controlled conditions. In conventional plasma polymerisation set up, the monomer is fed into an evacuated chamber and an ac/rf/dc/ w/pulsed discharge is created which enables the monomer species to dissociate, leading to the formation of polymer thin films. However, it has been found that the structure and hence the properties exhibited by plasma polymerized thin films are quite different from that of their counterparts produced by other thin film preparation techniques such as electrochemical deposition or spin coating. The properties of these thin films can be tuned only if the interrelationship between the structure and other properties are understood from a fundamental point of view. So very often, a through evaluation of the various properties is a pre-requisite for tailoring the properties of the thin films for applications. It has been found that conjugation is a necessary condition for enhancing the conductivity of polymer thin films. RF technique of plasma polymerisation is an excellent tool to induce conjugation and this modifies the electrical properties too. Both oxidative and reductive doping can be employed to modify the electrical properties of the polymer thin films for various applications. This is where organic thin films based on polymers scored over inorganic thin films, where in large area devices can be fabricated with organic semiconductors which is difficult to achieve by inorganic materials. For such applications, a variety of polymers have been synthesized such as polyaniline, polythiophene, polypyrrole etc. There are newer polymers added to this family every now and then. There are many virgin areas where plasma polymers are yet to make a foray namely low-k dielectrics or as potential nonlinear optical materials such as optical limiters. There are also many materials which are not been prepared by the method of plasma polymerisation. Some of the materials which are not been dealt with are phenyl hydrazine and tea tree oil. The advantage of employing organic extracts like tea tree oil monomers as precursors for making plasma polymers is that there can be value addition to the already existing uses and possibility exists in converting them to electronic grade materials, especially semiconductors and optically active materials for photonic applications. One of the major motivations of this study is to synthesize plasma polymer thin films based on aniline, phenyl hydrazine, pyrrole, tea tree oil and eucalyptus oil by employing both rf and ac plasma polymerisation techniques. This will be carried out with the objective of growing thin films on various substrates such as glass, quartz and indium tin oxide (ITO) coated glass. There are various properties namely structural, electrical, dielectric permittivity, nonlinear optical properties which are to be evaluated to establish the relationship with the structure and the other properties. Special emphasis will be laid in evaluating the optical parameters like refractive index (n), extinction coefficient (k), the real and imaginary components of dielectric constant and the optical transition energies of the polymer thin films from the spectroscopic ellipsometric studies. Apart from evaluating these physical constants, it is also possible to predict whether a material exhibit nonlinear optical properties by ellipsometric investigations. So further studies using open aperture z-scan technique in order to evaluate the nonlinear optical properties of a few selected samples which are potential nonlinear optical materials is another objective of the present study. It will be another endeavour to offer an appropriate explanation for the nonlinear optical properties displayed by these films. Doping of plasma polymers is found to modify both the electrical conductivity and optical properties. Iodine is found to modify the properties of the polymer thin films. However insitu iodine doping is tricky and the film often looses its stability because of the escape of iodine. An appropriate insitu technique of doping will be developed to dope iodine in to the plasma polymerized thin films. Doping of polymer thin films with iodine results in improved and modified optical and electrical properties. However it requires tools like FTIR and UV-Vis-NIR spectroscopy to elucidate the structural and optical modifications imparted to the polymer films. This will be attempted here to establish the role of iodine in the modification of the properties exhibited by the films

Linseed Oil as a Multipurpose Ingredient in NBR Vulcanizate

ABSTRACT: Linseed oil is used in the dual roles of the plasticizer and the fatty acid component of the activator in nitrile rubber vulcanizates. The study shows that the substitution can substantially improve the mechanical properties in addition to other advantages such as increased cure rate, reduced leachability and reduced compound cost.

Rubber Seed Oil: A Multipurpose Additive in NR and SBR Compounds

ABSTRACT: Rubber seed oil was used as a multipurpose ingredient in natural rubber (NR) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) compounds. The study shows that the oil, when substituted for conventional plasticiser, imparts excellent mechanical properties to NR and SBR vulcanizates. Further, it also improves aging resistance, reduces cure time, increases abrasion resistance and flex resistance, and reduces blooming.

A Study on the Use of Castor Oil as Plasticizer in Natural Rubber Compounds

Mechanical properties and thermal degradation of natural rubber compounds containing castor oil were studied to evaluate its suitability as plasticizer. Naphthenic oil was used as a reference plasticizer. The cure time was marginally lower in the case of castor oil mixes, probably due to the presence offree fatty acids in it. The tear strength and modulus were better in the case of mixes containing castor oil, while most of the other mechanical properties were comparable to the mixes containing naphthenic oil. The heat build up and compression set were higher than that of the naphthenic oil mixes. Thermal studies showed an increase of 8 °C in the temperature of initiation of degradation and an increase of 6 °C in the temperature at which the peak rate of degradation occurred. The peak rate of degradation was comparable to that of the reference compound

A Study on the Use of Coconut Oil as Plasticiser in Natural Rubber Compounds

Mechanical properties and thermal degradation characteristics of natural rubber compounds captaining coconut oil were compared with that of a control compound containing naphthenic oil. Cure time was marginally lower in the case of coconut oil mixes, probably due to the presence of free fatty acids. Tensile strength , tear strength, resilience and abrasion resistance were better than the naphthenic oil-based compounds . Compression set and hardness were marginally inferior The coconut oil mixes had a crosslink density comparable to that of the reference compound. Thermal studies showed that the temperature of initiation of degradation was increased by 10°C and the temperature at which the peak rate of degradation occured was increased by 7°C. The peak rate of degradation was compa rable to the control compound.

Fibre optic sensor for the detection of adulterant traces in coconut oil

The design and development of a fibre optic evanescent wave refractometer for the detection of trace amounts of paraffin oil and palm oil in coconut oil is presented. This sensor is based on a side-polished plastic optical fibre. At the sensing region, the cladding and a small portion of the core are removed and the fibre nicely polished. The sensing region is fabricated in such a manner that it sits perfectly within a bent mould. This bending of the sensing region enhances its sensitivity. The oil mixture of different mix ratios is introduced into the sensing region and we observed a sharp decrease in the output intensity. The observed variation in the intensity is found to be linear and the detection limit is 2% (by volume) paraffin oil/palm oil in coconut oil. The resolution of this refractometric sensor is of the order of 10−3. Since coconut oil is consumed in large volumes as edible oil in south India, this fibre optic sensor finds great relevance for the detection of adulterants such as paraffin oil or palm oil which are readily miscible in coconut oil. The advantage of this type of sensor is that it is inexpensive and easy to set up. Another attraction of the side-polished fibre is that only a very small amount of analyte is needed and its response time is only 7 s.

ANALYSIS, MODIFICATION, AND EVALUATION OF THE COLD FLOW PROPERTIES OF VEGETABLE OILS AS BASE OIL FOR INDUSTRIAL LUBRICANTS

Poor cold flow properties of vegetable oils are a major problem preventing the usage of many abundantly available vegetable oils as base stocks for industrial lubricants. The major objective of this research is to improve the cold flow properties of vegetable oils by various techniques like additive addition and different chemical modification processes. Conventional procedure for determining pour point is ASTM D97 method. ASTM D97 method is time consuming and reproducibility of pour point temperatures is poor between laboratories. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) is a fast, accurate and reproducible method to analyze the thermal activities during cooling/heating of oil. In this work coconut oil has been chosen as representative vegetable oil for the analysis and improvement cold flow properties since it is abundantly available in the tropics and has a very high pour point of 24 °C. DSC is used for the analysis of unmodified and modified vegetable oil. The modified oils (with acceptable pour points) were then subjected to different tests for the valuation of important lubricant properties such as viscometric, tribological (friction and wear properties), oxidative and corrosion properties.A commercial polymethacrylate based PPD was added in different percentages and the pour points were determined in each case. Styrenated phenol(SP) was added in different concentration to coconut oil and each solution was subjected to ASTM D97 test and analysis by DSC. Refined coconut oil and other oils like castor oil, sunflower oil and keranja oil were mixed in different proportions and interesterification procedure was carried out. Interesterification of coconut oil with other vegetable oils was not found to be effective in lowering the pour point of coconut oil as the reduction attained was only to the extent of 2 to 3 °C.Chemical modification by acid catalysed condensation reaction with coconut oil castor oil mixture resulted in significant reduction of pour point (from 24 ºC to -3 ºC). Instead of using triacylglycerols, when their fatty acid derivatives (lauric acid- the major fatty acid content of coconut oil and oleic acid- the major fatty acid constituents of monoand poly- unsaturated vegetable oils like olive oil, sunflower oil etc.) were used for the synthesis , the pour point could be brought down to -42 ºC. FTIR and NMR spectroscopy confirmed the ester structure of the product which is fundamental to the biodegradability of vegetable oils. The tribological performance of the synthesised product with a suitable AW/EP additive was comparable to the commercial SAE20W30 oil. The viscometric properties (viscosity and viscosity index) were also (with out additives) comparable to commercial lubricants. The TGA experiment confirmed the better oxidative performance of the product compared to vegetable oils. The sample passed corrosion test as per ASTM D130 method.

POPULATION GENETIC STUDIES ON THE OIL SARDINE ( Sardinella longiceps )

The objective of present investigation was to study the population genetic structure of S. longiceps by applying three different basic population genetic techniques such as cytogenetics, non-enzymatic biochemicalgenetics (general protein) and morphomeristics/metrics.

Effects of the Piscicides, Mahua Oil Cake and Croton Seed on the Prawn Culture System

Department of Marine Biology, Microbiology and Biochemistry

BIOCHEMICAL GENETIC STUDIES ON THE OIL SARDINE, Sardinella longiceps (CUVIER AND VALENCIENNES, 1847) FROM SELECTED CENTRES OF THE WEST COAST OF INDIA

The main objective of the present investigation was to study the biochemical genetic variability within the species and genetic structure of its regional populations from west coast. Realising the recent report of occurrence of oil sardine fishery in east coast of India, population samples from Mandapam and Madras were also included in the present investigation. The original data gathered on the population genetics of the species have helped to interpret and evaluate the results objectively. The important conclusions drawn from a detailed discussions on the subject would throw some light on the probable process of problematic fluctuations in the abundance of oil sardine fishery of India. The academic and applied values of present discoveries need not be emphasised. The data used for the doctoral thesis were generated during the ICAR ad-hoc project on the "Population genetic studies on oil sardine, sardinella longiceps to identity distinct genetic stocks", carried out at CMFRI, Cochin during the years, 1988-1991