Essays in macroeconometrics

The knowledge of the current state of the economy is crucial for policy makers, economists and analysts. However, a key economic variable, the gross domestic product (GDP), are typically colected on a quartely basis and released with substancial delays by the national statistical agencies. The first aim of this paper is to use a dynamic factor model to forecast the current russian GDP, using a set of timely monthly information. This approach can cope with the typical data flow problems of non-synchronous releases, mixed frequency and the curse of dimensionality. Given that Russian economy is largely dependent on the commodity market, our second motivation relates to study the effects of innovations in the russian macroeconomic fundamentals on commodity price predictability. We identify these innovations through a news index which summarizes deviations of offical data releases from the expectations generated by the DFM and perform a forecasting exercise comparing the performance of different models.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core MD02-2589

Sortable silt mean grain sizes together with oxygen and carbon isotopic data produced on the benthic foraminiferal species Fontbotia wuellerstorfi are used to construct high-resolution records of near-bottom flow vigour and deep water ventilation at a core site MD02-2589 located at 2660 m water depth on the southern Agulhas Plateau. The results suggest that during glacial periods (marine oxygen isotope stages 2 and 6, MIS 2 and MIS 6, respectively), there was a persistent contribution of a well-ventilated water mass within the Atlantic to Indian oceanic gateway with a d13C signature similar to present-day Northern Component Water (NCW), e.g., North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The records of chemical ventilation and near-bottom flow vigor reflect changes in the advection of northern source waters and meridional variability in the location of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its associated fronts. We suggest that during Termination II (TII), changes in chemical ventilation are largely decoupled from near-bottom physical flow speeds. A mid-TII climate optimum is associated with a low-flow speed plateau concurrent with a period of increased ventilation shown in the benthic d13C of other Southern Ocean records but not in our benthic d13C of MD02-2589. The climate optimum is followed by a period of southern cooling around 128 ka coincident with a stronger influence of NCW to interglacial levels at around 124 ka. All proxy records show a near synchronous and rapid shift during the transition from MIS 5a-4 (73 ka). This large event is attributed to a rapid decrease in NADW influence and replacement over the Agulhas Plateau by southern source waters.

Neogene radiolarian datum levels in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans

Fifty radiolarian events of early Pleistocene and Neogene age were identified in an E-W transect of equatorial DSDP sites, extending from the Gulf of Panama to the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans. Our objective was to document the degree of synchroneity or time-transgressiveness of stratigraphically-useful datum levels from this geologic time interval. We restricted our study to low latitudes within which morphological variations of individual taxa are minimal, the total assemblage diversity remains high, and stratigraphic continuity is well-documented by an independent set of criteria. Each of the five sites chosen (503, 573, 289/586, 214) was calibrated to an "absolute" time scale, using a multiple of planktonic foraminiferal, nannofossil, and diatom datum levels which have been independently correlated to the paleomagnetic polarity time scale in piston core material. With these correlations we have assigned "absolute" ages to each radiolarian event, with a precision of 0.1-0.2 m.y. and an accuracy of 0.2-0.4 m.y. On this basis we have classified each of the events as either: (a) synchronous (range of ages <0.4 m.y.); (b) time-transgressive (i.e., range of ages >1.0 m.y.); and (c) not resolvable (range of ages 0.4-1.0 m.y.). Our results show that, among the synchronous datum levels, a large majority (15 out of 19) are last occurrences. Among those events which are clearly time-transgressive, most are first appearances (10 out of 13). In many instances taxa appear to evolve first in the Indian Ocean, and subsequently in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern is particularly unexpected in view of the strong east-to-west zonal flow in equatorial latitudes. Three of the time-transgressive events have been used to define zonal boundaries: the first appearances of Spongaster pentas, Diartus hughesi, and D. petterssoni. Our results suggest that biostratigraphic non-synchroneity may be substantial (i.e., greater than 1 m.y.) within a given latitudinal zone; one would expect this effect to be even more pronounced across oceanographic and climatic gradients. We anticipate that the extent of diachroneity may be comparable for diatom, foraminiferal, and nannofossil datum levels as well. If this proves true, global "time scales" may need to be re-formulated on the basis of a smaller number of demonstrably synchronous events.

Planktonic foraminiferal preservation in Plio/Pleistocene sediments from the western equatorial Atlantic and Caribbean

Records of mean sortable silt and planktonic foraminiferal preservation from the Ceará Rise (western equatorial Atlantic) and from the Caribbean are presented to analyze the Pliocene (3.5-2.2 Ma) to Pleistocene (1.6-0.3 Ma) evolution of near-bottom current strength and the carbonate corrosiveness of deep water. During the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (~1 Ma) a drastic decrease in glacial bottom current strength and an increase in carbonate corrosiveness is registered, demonstrating a substantial decrease in the glacial contribution of the Lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW) to the Atlantic Ocean. Also, an increased sensitivity to eccentricity orbital forcing is registered after the MPT. By contrast, carbonate preservation increases considerably in the deep Caribbean in response to a strong and persistent stable contribution of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water (UNADW). We found evidence for the strongest and most stable circulation within the LNADW cell during the Northern Hemisphere cooling period between ~3.2 and 2.75 Ma. This is in agreement with the 'superconveyor model' which postulates that the highest NADW production took place prior to ~2.7 Ma. A considerable decrease in bottom current strength and planktonic foraminiferal preservation is observed synchronous with the first occurrence of large-scale continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. This documents the final termination of the 'superconveyor' at ca. 2.75 Ma. However, our data do not support a 'superconveyor' in the interval between 3.5 and 3.2 Ma when high-amplitude fluctuations in bottom current flow and preservation in planktonic foraminifera are observed. Because of the great sensitivity of NADW production to changes in surface water salinity, we assume that the high-amplitude fluctuations of LNADW circulation prior to ~3.2 Ma are linked to changes in the Atlantic salinity budget. After 2.75 Ma they are primarily controlled by ice-sheet forcing. In contrast to the stepwise deterioration of planktonic foraminiferal preservation in the western deep Atlantic, a trend toward better preservation from the Pliocene to Pleistocene is observed in the deep Caribbean. This indicates a long-term increase in the contribution of UNADW to the Atlantic Ocean.

(Table) Radiocarbon datings of sediment core BLK-1 obtained from Barkol Lake, China

The Barkol Lake, as a closed inland lake, is located at the northeast Xinjiang in northwest China. A combination of geochemical indicators including d18O and d13C of carbonate, TOC, carbonate contents, as well as grain size proxies and magnetic susceptibility of sediments obtained from a newly recovered section at this lake, provides a high-resolution history of climatic change in the past 9400 years. Multi-indicators reflect that Holocene climatic change in the study region generally follows the Westerly Wind pattern of Holocene, and three climatic periods can be identified. Between 9400 and 7500 cal a B.P., climate was characterized by relatively drier and colder condition. From 7500 to 5800 cal a B.P., a relatively warmer and moister climate prevailed, but between 5800 and 3500 cal a B.P., climate shifted towards warmer and drier conditions. A relatively colder and wetter climate prevailed during 3500~1000 cal a B.P., then it changed towards cold and dry between 1000 and 500 cal a B.P.; after 500 cal a B.P., climate changed towards warm and dry conditions again. This study reflects that during the Middle Holocene (from ca 7000 to 3500 cal a B.P.), variations of carbonate d18O of sediments from several lakes in the northern Xinjiang were synchronous with that of Qinghai Lake, where was strongly influenced by the South Asian monsoon; however, after 3500 cal a B.P. this consistency was interrupted, possibly resulting from a re-domination of the Westerly Wind and the retreat of South Asian monsoon in the northern Xinjiang.

Chronostratigraphic summary and raw counts of selected dinoflagellate cysts and architarch taxa of ODP Hole 151-907A

A detailed dinoflagellate cyst investigation of the almost continuous Middle Miocene through Pliocene of Ocean Drilling Program Hole 907A in the Iceland Sea has been conducted at 100-kyr resolution. The investigated section is well constrained by magnetostratigraphy, providing for the first time an independent temporal control on a succession of northern high-latitude dinoflagellate cyst bioevents. Based on the highest/lowest occurrences (HO/LO) and highest common occurrence (HCO) of 20 dinoflagellate cyst taxa and one acritarch species, 26 bioevents have been defined and compared with those recorded at selected DSDP, ODP, and IODP sites from the North Atlantic and contiguous seas, and in outcrops and boreholes from the onshore and offshore eastern U.S.A., and the North Sea and Mediterranean basins. Comparisons reveal near-synchronous HOs of the dinoflagellate cysts Batiacasphaera micropapillata (3.8-3.4 Ma, mid-Pliocene) and Reticulatosphaera actinocoronata (4.8-4.2 Ma, Lower Pliocene) across the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic, highlighting their value on a supraregional scale. This probably applies also to Hystrichosphaeropsis obscura (upper Tortonian), when excluding ODP Hole 907A where its sporadic upper stratigraphic range presumably relates to cooling in the early Tortonian. Over a broader time span within the upper Tortonian, the HO of Operculodinium piaseckii likely also permits correlation across the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic, and the HO of Labyrinthodinium truncatum appears useful in the Labrador and Nordic Seas. Biostratigraphic markers useful for regional rather than supraregional correlation are the HOs of Batiacasphaera hirsuta (c. 8.4 Ma, upper Tortonian) and Unipontidinium aquaeductus (c. 13.6-13.9 Ma, upper Langhian), the HCO of the acritarch Decahedrella martinheadii (c. 6.7-6.3 Ma, Messinian), and possibly the LO of Cerebrocysta irregulare sp. nov. (c. 13.8 Ma, uppermost Langhian) across the Nordic Seas. Since Habibacysta tectata, B. micropapillata, R. actinocoronata and D. martinheadii have been observed in the Arctic Ocean, they are potentially useful for high latitude correlations in the polar domain. The LOs of Habibacysta tectata and Unipontidinium aquaeductus suggest a mid- to late Langhian age (15.1-13.7 Ma) for deposits at the base of Hole 907A, thus providing new constraints on the age of basalts at the base of ODP Hole 907A. The stratigraphically important dinoflagellate cysts Cerebrocysta irregulare sp. nov., and Impagidinium elongatum sp. nov. are formally described.

Late Miocene and Pliocene dinoflagellate cysts, acritarchs and terrestrial palynomorphs from ODP Hole 642B, Vøring Plateau, Norwegian Sea

The globally warm climate of the early Pliocene gradually cooled from 4 million years ago, synchronous with decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In contrast, palaeoceanographic records indicate that the Nordic Seas cooled during the earliest Pliocene, before global cooling. However, a lack of knowledge regarding the precise timing of Nordic Seas cooling has limited our understanding of the governing mechanisms. Here, using marine palynology, we show that cooling in the Nordic Seas was coincident with the first trans-Arctic migration of cool-water Pacific mollusks around 4.5 million years ago, and followed by the development of a modern-like Nordic Seas surface circulation. Nordic Seas cooling precedes global cooling by 500,000 years; as such, we propose that reconfiguration of the Bering Strait and Central American Seaway triggered the development of a modern circulation in the Nordic Seas, which is essential for North Atlantic Deep Water formation and a precursor for more widespread Greenland glaciation in the late Pliocene.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core PS51/092-12

Diatom assemblages were employed to study temporal changes of Siberian river runoff on the Laptev Sea shelf. Using a correlation between freshwater diatoms (%) in core-top sediments and summer surface water salinities from the inner Kara Sea, salinity conditions were reconstructed for a site northeast of the Lena River Delta (present water depth 32 m) since 9 calendar years (cal) ka. The reconstruction indicate a strong, near-coastal, and river-influenced environment at the site until about 8.6 cal ka. Corroborated by comparison with other proxy records from further to the east, surface salinities increased from 9 to 14 until about 7.4 cal ka, owing to ongoing global sea level rise and synchronous southward shift of the coastline. Although riverine water became less influential at the site since then, salinities still varied between 12.5 and 15, particularly during the last 3.5 kyr. These more recent salinity fluctuations agree well with reconstructions from just north of the Lena Delta, emphasizing the strong linkage between shelf hydrography and riverine discharge patterns in Arctic Siberia.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on alkenones of sediment core M35003-4

Evidence for abrupt climate changes on millennial and shorter timescales is widespread in marine and terrestrial climate records (Dansgard et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/364218a0; Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Charles et al., 1996, doi:10.1016/0012-821X(96)00083-0, Bard et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/385707a0). Rapid reorganization of ocean circulation is considered to exert some control over these changes (Broecker et al., 1985, doi:10.1038/315021a0), as are shifts in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (Broecker, 1994, doi:10.1038/372421a0). The response of the climate system to these two influences is fundamentally different: slowing of thermohaline overturn in the North Atlantic Ocean is expected to decrease northward heat transport by the ocean and to induce warming of the tropical Atlantic (Crowley, 1992, doi:10.1029/92PA01058; Manabe and Stouffer, 1997, doi:10.1029/96PA03932), whereas atmospheric greenhouse forcing should cause roughly synchronous global temperature changes (Manabe et al., 1991, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0785:TROACO>2.0.CO;2). So these two mechanisms of climate change should be distinguishable by the timing of surface-water temperature variations relative to changes in deep-water circulation. Here we present a high-temporal-resolution record of sea surface temperatures from the western tropical North Atlantic Ocean which spans the past 29,000 years, derived from measurements of temperature-sensitive alkenone unsaturation in sedimentary organic matter. We find significant warming is documented for Heinrich event H1 (16,900-15,400 calendar years bp) and the Younger Dryas event (12,900-11,600 cal. yr bp), which were periods of intense cooling in the northern North Atlantic. Temperature changes in the tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic are out of phase, suggesting that the thermohaline circulation was the important trigger for these rapid climate changes.

(Table S1) Age determination of ODP Site 165-1002

A series of 14C measurements in Ocean Drilling Program cores from the tropical Cariaco Basin, which have been correlated to the annual-layer counted chronology for the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, provides a high-resolution calibration of the radiocarbon time scale back to 50,000 years before the present. Independent radiometric dating of events correlated to GISP2 suggests that the calibration is accurate. Reconstructed 14C activities varied substantially during the last glacial period, including sharp peaks synchronous with the Laschamp and Mono Lake geomagnetic field intensity minimal and cosmogenic nuclide peaks in ice cores and marine sediments. Simulations with a geochemical box model suggest that much of the variability can be explained by geomagnetically modulated changes in 14C production rate together with plausible changes in deep-ocean ventilation and the global carbon cycle during glaciation.

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction for sediment core GIK18287-3 in the tropical South China Sea

The timing and magnitude of sea-surface temperature (SST) changes in the tropical southern South China Sea (SCS) during the last 16,500 years have been reconstructed on a high-resolution, 14C-dated sediment core using three different foraminiferal transfer functions (SIMMAX28, RAM, FP-12E) and geochemical (Uk'37) SST estimates. In agreement with CLIMAP reconstructions, both the FP-12E and the Uk'37 SST estimates show an average late glacial-interglacial SST difference of 2.0°C, whereas the RAM and SIMMAX28 foraminiferal transfer functions show only a minor (0.6°C) or no consistent late glacial-interglacial SST change, respectively. Both the Uk'37 and the FP-12E SST estimates, as well as the planktonic foraminiferal delta18O values, indicate an abrupt warming (ca. 1°C in <200 yr) at the end of the last glaciation, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the Bølling transition as recorded in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, whereas the RAM-derived deglacial SST increase appears to lag during this event by ca. 500 yr. The similarity in abruptness and timing of the warming associated with the Bølling transition in Greenland and the southern SCS suggest a true synchrony of the Northern Hemisphere warming at the end of the last glaciation. In contrast to the foraminiferal transfer function estimates that do not indicate any consistent cooling associated with the Younger Dryas (YD) climate event in the tropical SCS, the Uk'37 SST estimates show a cooling of ca. 0.2-0.6°C compared to the Bølling-Allerød period. These Uk'37 SST estimates from the southern SCS argue in favor of a Northern Hemisphere-wide, synchronous cooling during the YD period.

Stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data of Globigerinoides ruber white, water stable oxygen isotope data, SST and MAT records of sediment core GeoB6211-2

During Termination 1, millennial-scale weakening events of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) supposedly produced major changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the western South Atlantic, and in mean air temperatures (MATs) over southeastern South America. It has been suggested, for instance, that the Brazil Current (BC) would strengthen (weaken) and the North Brazil Current (NBC) would weaken (strengthen) during slowdown (speed-up) events of the AMOC. This anti-phase pattern was claimed to be a necessary response to the decreased North Atlantic heat piracy during periods of weak AMOC. However, the thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent is so far largely unknown. Here we address this issue, presenting high-temporal-resolution SST and MAT records from the BC and southeastern South America, respectively. We identify a warming in the western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which is followed first by a drop and then by increasing temperatures during the Bølling-Allerød, in phase with an existing SST record from the NBC. Additionally, a similar SST evolution is shown by a southernmost eastern South Atlantic record, suggesting a South Atlantic-wide pattern in SST evolution during most of Termination 1. Over southeastern South America, our MAT record shows a two-step increase during Termination 1, synchronous with atmospheric CO2 rise (i.e., during the second half of HS1 and during the Younger Dryas), and lagging abrupt SST changes by several thousand years. This delay corroborates the notion that the long duration of HS1 was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.

Colour reflectance and core descriptions from sediment cores from the Weddell Sea

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Biostratigraphic events close to the Tortonian-Messinian boundary at ODP Hole 107-654A (Table 1)

Correlations of biostratigraphic datums to the geomagnetic reversal time scale (GRTS) at Leg 107 sites provide a means of correlating these datums to sections outside the Mediterranean. Unfortunately, poor recovery and core deformation due to rotary drilling at Sites 651, 652, and 654 severely hampered efforts to acquire detailed magnetostratigraphies and biostratigraphies. However, many biostratigraphic markers could be correlated to the GRTS, including those close to the Miocene/Pliocene and Tortonian/Messinian boundaries. These boundaries are interpreted to occur in Chrons 3r and 3B, respectively (chron nomenclature after Cox, 1982). Comparison of the correlation of Plio-Pleistocene calcareous plankton biostratigraphic events to the GRTS in the Mediterranean and in the open oceans indicates that many events are broadly synchronous between the two environments. The outstanding exception is the first occurrence of Globorotalia margaritae which is delayed in the Mediterranean by about 1 m.y.