Fractional electrical impedances in botanical elements

Fractional calculus (FC) is no longer considered solely from a mathematical viewpoint, and is now applied in many emerging scientific areas, such as electricity, magnetism, mechanics, fluid dynamics, and medicine. In the field of dynamical systems, significant work has been carried out proving the importance of fractional order mathematical models. This article studies the electrical impedance of vegetables and fruits from a FC perspective. From this line of thought, several experiments are developed for measuring the impedance of botanical elements. The results are analyzed using Bode and polar diagrams, which lead to electrical circuit models revealing fractional-order behaviour.

Projeto de um conversor eletrónico para utilização num sistema eólico de produção de energia

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica no Ramo de Automação e Electrónica Industrial

Maximum level and time to peak of dam-break waves on mobile horizontal bed

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 135, No. 11, November 1, 2009

Fractional Order Junctions

Gottfried Leibniz generalized the derivation and integration, extending the operators from integer up to real, or even complex, orders. It is presently recognized that the resulting models capture long term memory effects difficult to describe by classical tools. Leon Chua generalized the set of lumped electrical elements that provide the building blocks in mathematical models. His proposal of the memristor and of higher order elements broadened the scope of variables and relationships embedded in the development of models. This paper follows the two directions and proposes a new logical step, by generalizing the concept of junction. Classical junctions interconnect system elements using simple algebraic restrictions. Nevertheless, this simplistic approach may be misleading in the presence of unexpected dynamical phenomena and requires including additional “parasitic” elements. The novel γ-junction includes, as special cases, the standard series and parallel connections and allows a new degree of freedom when building models. The proposal motivates the search for experimental and real world manifestations of the abstract conjectures.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Effects of treatment, awareness and condom use in a coinfection model for HIV and HCV in MSM

We develop a new a coinfection model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We consider treatment for both diseases, screening, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, and the use of condoms. We study the local stability of the disease-free equilibria for the full model and for the two submodels (HCV only and HIV only submodels). We sketch bifurcation diagrams for different parameters, such as the probabilities that a contact will result in a HIV or an HCV infection. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the HIV, HCV and double endemic equilibria can be observed. We also show numerically the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. We extrapolate the results from the model for actual measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Estudo e análise do sequenciamento de tarefas de produção: job shop scheduling

Esta dissertação apresenta um estudo sobre os problemas de sequenciamento de tarefas de produção do tipo job shop scheduling. Os problemas de sequenciamento de tarefas de produção pretendem encontrar a melhor sequência para o processamento de uma lista de tarefas, o instante de início e término de cada tarefa e a afetação de máquinas para as tarefas. Entre estes, encontram-se os problemas com máquinas paralelas, os problemas job shop e flow shop. As medidas de desempenho mais comuns são o makespan (instante de término da execução de todas as tarefas), o tempo de fluxo total, a soma dos atrasos (tardiness), o atraso máximo, o número de tarefas que são completadas após a data limite, entre outros. Num problema do tipo job shop, as tarefas (jobs) consistem num conjunto de operações que têm de ser executadas numa máquina pré-determinada, obedecendo a um determinado sequenciamento com tempos pré-definidos. Estes ambientes permitem diferentes cenários de sequenciamento das tarefas. Normalmente, não são permitidas interrupções no processamento das tarefas (preemption) e pode ainda ser necessário considerar tempos de preparação dependentes da sequência (sequence dependent setup times) ou atribuir pesos (prioridades) diferentes em função da importância da tarefa ou do cliente. Pretende-se o estudo dos modelos matemáticos existentes para várias variantes dos problemas de sequenciamento de tarefas do tipo job shop e a comparação dos resultados das diversas medidas de desempenho da produção. Este trabalho contribui para demonstrar a importância que um bom sequenciamento da produção pode ter na sua eficiência e consequente impacto financeiro.

LABORATORY EVALUATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF Aedes aegypti IN TWO SEASONS: INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT PLACES AND DIFFERENT DENSITIES

Aedes aegypti is an important vector in Brazil being the main vector of the dengue-fever. This paper employs survival curves to describe the time in days from larvae to adult forms of Aedes aegypti raised, individually and collectively, and compares it during winter and spring when positioned inside and outside a laboratory. The study was conducted in São Vicente, a coastal city in Southeastern Brazil. The lowest water temperature in winter and in spring was 20 °C and the highest was 26 °C in spring. Higher and more stable temperatures were measured in the intra compared to the peri in both seasons. Consequently, larvae positioned in the intra resulted in the lowest median time to develop in the individual and collective experiment (nine and ten days, respectively). At least 25% of the larvae positioned in the intra in the individual experiment in the spring took only seven days to reach adulthood. Sex ratios and the median time development by sex did not show significant differences. These results indicate that efforts to control Aedes aegypti must be continuous and directed mainly to prevent the intra-domiciliary sites that can be infested in a week in order to reduce the human-vector contact.

Criação de programa informático em ambiente Matlab® para estudo de estruturas planas pelo Método de Elementos Finitos.

Os modelos a ser analisados pelo Método de Elementos Finitos são cada vez mais complexos e, nos tempos que correm, seria impensável realizar tais análises sem um apoio computorizado. Existe para esta finalidade uma vasta gama de programas que permitem realizar tarefas que passam pelo desenho de estruturas, análise estática de cargas, análise dinâmica e vibrações, visualização do comportamento físico (deformações) em tempo real, que permitem a otimização da estrutura. Sob o pretexto de permitir a qualquer utilizador uma análise de estruturas simples com o Método dos Elementos Finitos, surge esta tese, onde se irá criar de raiz um programa com interface gráfica no ambiente MATLAB® para análise de estruturas simples com dois tipos de elemento finito, triangular de deformação constante e quadrangular de deformação linear. O software desenvolvido, verificado por comparação com um software comercial dedicado para o efeito, efetua malhagem com elementos bidimensionais triangulares e quadriláteros e resolve modelos arbitrados pelo Método de Elementos Finitos, representando estes resultados visualmente e em formato tabular.

Demora desde o aparecimento dos primeiros sintomas até ao diagnóstico da tuberculose pulmonar em Portugal : análise de sobrevivência

RESUMO - O presente estudo tem como objetivo contribuir para a Saúde Pública no controlo da tuberculose pulmonar (TBP), estudando a demora desde o aparecimento dos primeiros sintomas até ao diagnóstico da doença. As consequências da demora no diagnóstico podem ser fatais para os doentes e intensificar a proliferação do bacilo, influenciando a incidência da doença. Este estudo analisou os casos notificados com TBP pelo SVIG-TB, em Portugal Continental, no período de 2000 a 2009, com demora no diagnóstico de 1 a 365 dias. Foram utilizadas técnicas de estatística clássica para caracterização da base de dados e de análise de sobrevivência para caracterizar a demora até ao diagnóstico e modelar o risco de diagnóstico. As variáveis incluídas no estudo foram: género, idade, grupo etário, distrito de residência, área crítica de incidência da tuberculose, presença ou ausência da infeção pelo VIH, caso novo e reincidência, número de tratamentos anteriores, presença ou ausência de fatores de risco (álcool, tabaco, outras drogas, reclusão e sem-abrigo) e número de fatores de risco. Verificou-se que nos 35 711 casos notificados a mediana da demora até ao diagnóstico foi de 55 dias. Todas as variáveis referidas anteriormente demostraram estar correlacionadas com a demora, exceto no que diz respeito às áreas críticas ou não críticas e aos sem-abrigo. No modelo de Cox as variáveis que se mostraram relevantes ao diagnóstico foram o género em 10,2%, grupos etários, distritos, presença ou ausência de VIH em 12%, dependência alcoólica em 6,3% e dependência de tabaco em 8,8%. Estes resultados apontam para a efetividade de medidas de controlo da tuberculose, principalmente no caso de a pessoa apresentar alguns fatores de risco.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Rio Grande, RS, Brazil

We conducted a molecular epidemiological study to investigate HIV-1 strains in Rio Grande, southern Brazil, searching for an association with transmission mode and risk behavior. Patients (185) identified at an AIDS treatment reference Hospital, from 1994 to 1997, were included; from which 107 blood samples were obtained. Nested PCR was realized once for each sample; for amplified samples (69) HIV subtypes were classified using the heteroduplex mobility assay. Subtypes identified were B (75%), C (22%) and F (3%). All infections with C were diagnosed after 1994. Comparing patients with B and C, no differences were detected regarding demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics; survival analysis did not reveal differences in HIV to AIDS evolution. A higher proportion of injecting drug users, IDU (not significant, p<.07) was found among those with C. This suggests that C may have been introduced in this area through IDU, and is being spread, probably by their sexual partners, to persons with other risk practices.

A Constructivist perspective on EU'S democracy promotion in Turkey

The European Union, as a regional actor and an example of stability and well-being, has embraced a set of principles it has stood for and which constitute its own identity. The diffusion of these values among third countries is one of the objectives of EU’s External Policy. Democracy can be found among the principles that are sought to be exported through comprehensive and complex strategies within different frameworks, such as neighbourhood relations, trade partnerships and the accession process. Focusing on the latter, candidates are object of an intensive process of Europeanisation that operates through different mechanisms like socialisation and conditionality. Turkey, on the other side, has decided to apply for full membership several decades ago and, ever since, it has been pressured to Europeanise, which includes improving its unstable democracy. This case, however, is different from all other previous enlargements; for its special socio-cultural and civilisational features, Turkey constitutes a more complex novelty for the European Union. Therefore, this thesis aims to study the influence of the European Union on the democratisation process of Turkey, focusing on the period ranging between 1999, the year the European Council recognised Turkey’s candidacy status, and 2009 that marks the 10-year period of that condition. It is the intention of this project to assess the impact of the European Union at that level through the study of the democratic evolution of the country and its co-relation with other variables related to the presence or pressure of the EU. As this is a challenging objective, it will require a deep reflection upon central concepts like democracy and democratic consolidation, and a diversified use of methodological techniques, such as statistical analysis and mathematical co-relations, historical analysis, literature review and in-depth interviews. This study will privilege a Constructivist approach, emphasising the social construction of reality and the role of the ideational aspects – identity, perceptions and the broader socio-cultural dimension – in Turkey-EU relations.

Fostering e-participation sustainability through a BPM-driven semantic model

According to a recent Eurobarometer survey (2014), 68% of Europeans tend not to trust national governments. As the increasing alienation of citizens from politics endangers democracy and welfare, governments, practitioners and researchers look for innovative means to engage citizens in policy matters. One of the measures intended to overcome the so-called democratic deficit is the promotion of civic participation. Digital media proliferation offers a set of novel characteristics related to interactivity, ubiquitous connectivity, social networking and inclusiveness that enable new forms of societal-wide collaboration with a potential impact on leveraging participative democracy. Following this trend, e-Participation is an emerging research area that consists in the use of Information and Communication Technologies to mediate and transform the relations among citizens and governments towards increasing citizens’ participation in public decision-making. However, despite the widespread efforts to implement e-Participation through research programs, new technologies and projects, exhaustive studies on the achieved outcomes reveal that it has not yet been successfully incorporated in institutional politics. Given the problems underlying e-Participation implementation, the present research suggested that, rather than project-oriented efforts, the cornerstone for successfully implementing e-Participation in public institutions as a sustainable added-value activity is a systematic organisational planning, embodying the principles of open-governance and open-engagement. It further suggested that BPM, as a management discipline, can act as a catalyst to enable the desired transformations towards value creation throughout the policy-making cycle, including political, organisational and, ultimately, citizen value. Following these findings, the primary objective of this research was to provide an instrumental model to foster e-Participation sustainability across Government and Public Administration towards a participatory, inclusive, collaborative and deliberative democracy. The developed artefact, consisting in an e-Participation Organisational Semantic Model (ePOSM) underpinned by a BPM-steered approach, introduces this vision. This approach to e-Participation was modelled through a semi-formal lightweight ontology stack structured in four sub-ontologies, namely e-Participation Strategy, Organisational Units, Functions and Roles. The ePOSM facilitates e-Participation sustainability by: (1) Promoting a common and cross-functional understanding of the concepts underlying e-Participation implementation and of their articulation that bridges the gap between technical and non-technical users; (2) Providing an organisational model which allows a centralised and consistent roll-out of strategy-driven e-Participation initiatives, supported by operational units dedicated to the execution of transformation projects and participatory processes; (3) Providing a standardised organisational structure, goals, functions and roles related to e-Participation processes that enhances process-level interoperability among government agencies; (4) Providing a representation usable in software development for business processes’ automation, which allows advanced querying using a reasoner or inference engine to retrieve concrete and specific information about the e-Participation processes in place. An evaluation of the achieved outcomes, as well a comparative analysis with existent models, suggested that this innovative approach tackling the organisational planning dimension can constitute a stepping stone to harness e-Participation value.

Impacto da crise no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH-SIDA em Portugal Continental : análise temporal 2001-2012

RESUMO - Contexto: O início da crise económica em Portugal no ano de 2009 colocou o país numa grave recessão económica aliada a diversas medidas de austeridade. Como consequência assistiu-se, ao nível nacional, uma diminuição do PIB, aumento do desemprego e assim como uma série de restrições orçamentais em várias áreas, nomeadamente a da saúde. Apesar de existir inúmeros estudos que avaliaram o impacto das recessões económicas na saúde os resultados são controversos e não existe um consenso quanto a esta associação. No que se refere às doenças infeciosas o número de estudos é bastante mais reduzido. O objetivo deste estudo foi o de analisar o impacto da crise atual no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH/SIDA, de forma a complementar a escassa evidência existente neste domínio. Metodologia: Foram analisados 53,296 episódios de internamento nos hospitais do SNS entre o ano de 2001 e 2012, cujo diagnóstico principal é a infeção pelo VIH/SIDA. Considerou-se o ano de 2009 como o ano inicial da crise. Através de regressões multivariadas avaliou-se o impacto da crise no volume de doentes internados, duração de internamento, número de co-morbilidades, risco de ser admitido via urgência e risco de mortalidade no internamento. Adicionalmente repetiu-se a análise por região NUTS II de Portugal Continental (Norte, Alentejo, LVT, Centro e Algarve). Resultados: A crise não teve impacto no volume de doentes internados. No entanto, após o ano de 2009, registou-se uma diminuição de 5.6% na duração de internamento; um aumento de 1.6% no número de co-morbilidades; um aumento de 11.1% no risco de ser admitido via urgência e um aumento de 8.6% do risco de mortalidade no internamento. As análises por região permitiram verificar que as regiões mais afetadas pela crise foram a região LVT e a região Norte. Conclusão: A crise em Portugal não teve impacto na incidência de internamentos por VIH/SIDA. Porém o aumento do número de co-morbilidades, do risco de ser admitido via urgência e do risco de mortalidade no internamento parece refletir um agravamento da severidade dos casos após o ano de 2009. Adicionalmente a diminuição da duração de internamento com o efeito da crise poderá refletir tanto aumento da eficiência dos cuidados prestados ou ao contrário, uma diminuição da sua qualidade.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.