991 resultados para Sudden change


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We consider the classical problem of sequential detection of change in a distribution (from hypothesis 0 to hypothesis 1), where the fusion centre receives vectors of periodic measurements, with the measurements being i.i.d. over time and across the vector components, under each of the two hypotheses. In our problem, the sensor devices ("motes") that generate the measurements constitute an ad hoc wireless network. The motes contend using a random access protocol (such as CSMA/CA) to transmit their measurement packets to the fusion centre. The fusion centre waits for vectors of measurements to accumulate before taking decisions. We formulate the optimal detection problem, taking into account the network delay experienced by the vectors of measurements, and find that, under periodic sampling, the detection delay decouples into network delay and decision delay. We obtain a lower bound on the network delay, and propose a censoring scheme, where lagging sensors drop their delayed observations in order to mitigate network delay. We show that this scheme can achieve the lower bound. This approach is explored via simulation. We also use numerical evaluation and simulation to study issues such as: the optimal sampling rate for a given number of sensors, and the optimal number of sensors for a given measurement rate

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Analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow by perturbing the climate inputs has been a concern for many authors in the past few years, but there are few analyses for the impacts on water quality. To examine the impact of change in climate variables on the water quality parameters, the water quality input variables have to be perturbed. The primary input variables that can be considered for such an analysis are streamflow and water temperature, which are affected by changes in precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Using hypothetical scenarios to represent both greenhouse warming and streamflow changes, the sensitivity of the water quality parameters has been evaluated under conditions of altered river flow and river temperature in this article. Historical data analysis of hydroclimatic variables is carried out, which includes flow duration exceedance percentage (e.g. Q90), single low- flow indices (e.g. 7Q10, 30Q10) and relationships between climatic variables and surface variables. For the study region of Tunga-Bhadra river in India, low flows are found to be decreasing and water temperatures are found to be increasing. As a result, there is a reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels found in recent years. Water quality responses of six hypothetical climate change scenarios were simulated by the water quality model, QUAL2K. A simple linear regression relation between air and water temperature is used to generate the scenarios for river water temperature. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause impairment in water quality. It was found that there is a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows, even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies (PCAs). The necessity to improve the standards of PCA and develop adaptation policies for the dischargers to account for climate change is examined through a fuzzy waste load allocation model developed earlier. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

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In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978-2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37A degrees C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June-September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee (Coffea arabica), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea (Thea sinensis) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis.

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Understanding the volume change behaviour of expansive soils/clays becomes a dire necessity to obtain engineering solutions to structures founded on these soils. Behaviour of expansive soils does not conform to the natural behaviour of fine grained soils. Most of the cases, the permissible heave/settlement forms the design criteria. The paper discusses the basic properties, the role of effective stress concept, basic mechanism in controlling the volume change behaviour, the role of double layer repulsion and its validity and certain basic considerations of footing resting on an expansive soil with respect to heave or settlement and the soil reinforcement as a possible engineering solution.

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Thin films of Sb40Se20S40 with thickness 1000 nm were prepared by thermal evaporation technique. The amorphous nature of the thin films was verified by X-ray diffractometer. The chemical composition of the deposited thin films was examined by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX). The changes in optical properties due to the influence of laser radiation on amorphous thin films of Sb40Se20S40 glassy alloy were calculated from absorbance spectra as a function of photon energy in the wavelength region 450-900 nm. Analysis of the optical absorption data shows that the rule of non-direct transitions predominates. It has been observed that laser-irradiation of the films leads to a decrease in optical band gap while increase in absorption coefficient. The decrease in the optical band gap is explained on the basis of change in nature of films due to disorderness. The optical changes are supported by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Laminar forced convection heat transfer from two-dimensional sudden expansion flow of different nanofluids is studied numerically. The governing equations are solved using the unsteady stream function-vorticity method. The effect of volume fraction of the nanoparticles and type of nanoparticles on heat transfer is examined and found to have a significant impact. Local and average Nusselt numbers are reported in connection with various nanoparticle, volume fraction, and Reynolds number for expansion ratio 2. The Nusselt number reaches peak values near the reattachment point and reaches asymptotic value in the downstream. Bottom wall eddy and volume fraction shows a significant impact on the average Nusselt number.

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A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Compositional dependent investigations of the bulk GeTe chalcogenides alloys added with different selenium concentrations are carried out by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Raman spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), electron probe micro-analyzer (EPMA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The measurements reveal that GeTe crystals are predominant in alloys up to 0.20 at.% of Se content indicating interstitial occupancy of Se in the Ge vacancies. Raman modes in the GeTe alloys changes to GeSe modes with the addition of Se. Amorphousness in the alloy increases with increase of Se and 0.50 at.% Se alloy forms a homogeneous amorphous phase with a mixture of Ge-Se and Te-Se bonds. Structural changes are explained with the help of bond theory of solids. Crystallization temperature is found to be increasing with increase of Se, which will enable the amorphous stability. For the optimum 0.50 at.% Se alloy, the melting temperature has reduced which will reduce the RESET current requirement for the phase change memory applications. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Thin films of Sb20S40Se40 of thickness 800 nm were prepared by thermal evaporation method. The as-prepared and illuminated thin films were studied by X-ray diffraction, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The optical band gap was reduced due to photo induced effects along with the increase in disorder. These optical properties changes are due to the change of homopolar bond densities. The core level peak shifting in XPS and Raman spectra supports the optical changes happening in the film due to light exposure.

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Bilayer thin films of Bi/As2S3 were prepared from Bi and As2S3 by thermal evaporation technique under high vacuum. We have prepared three bilayer films of 905nm, 910nm and 915nm thickness with with As2S3 as bottom layer (900nm) and Bi as top layer (5,10,15 nm). We have compared the optical changes due to the thickness variation of Bi layer on As2S3 film. The changes were characterized by FTIR and XPS techniques.