CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Improving Pitch Tracking Performance in Hard Noise Conditions by a Preprocessing Based on Mathematical Morphology

In this paper we show how a nonlinear preprocessing of speech signal -with high noise- based on morphological filters improves the performance of robust algorithms for pitch tracking (RAPT). This result happens for a very simple morphological filter. More sophisticated ones could even improve such results. Mathematical morphology is widely used in image processing and has a great amount of applications. Almost all its formulations derived in the two-dimensional framework are easily reformulated to be adapted to one-dimensional context

Sociodemographic Factors and Clinical Conditions Associated to Hospitalization in Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Virus Infected Patients in Spain, 2009-2010

The emergence and pandemic spread of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 resulted in a serious alarm in clinical and public health services all over the world. One distinguishing feature of this new influenza pandemic was the different profile of hospitalized patients compared to those from traditional seasonal influenza infections. Our goal was to analyze sociodemographic and clinical factors associated to hospitalization following infection by influenza A(H1N1) virus. We report the results of a Spanish nationwide study with laboratory confirmed infection by the new pandemic virus in a case-control design based on hospitalized patients. The main risk factors for hospitalization of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 were determined to be obesity (BMI≥40, with an odds-ratio [OR] 14.27), hematological neoplasia (OR 10.71), chronic heart disease, COPD (OR 5.16) and neurological disease, among the clinical conditions, whereas low education level and some ethnic backgrounds (Gypsies and Amerinds) were the sociodemographic variables found associated to hospitalization. The presence of any clinical condition of moderate risk almost triples the risk of hospitalization (OR 2.88) and high risk conditions raise this value markedly (OR 6.43). The risk of hospitalization increased proportionally when for two (OR 2.08) or for three or more (OR 4.86) risk factors were simultaneously present in the same patient. These findings should be considered when a new influenza virus appears in the human population.

Particle shape and orientation in laser diffraction and static image analysis size distribution analysis of micrometer sized rectangular particles

Laser diffraction (LD) and static image analysis (SIA) of rectangular particles [United States Pharmacopeia, USP30-NF25, General Chapter <776>, Optical Miroscopy.] have been systematically studied. To rule out sample dispersion and particle orientation as the root cause of differences in size distribution profiles, we immobilize powder samples on a glass plate by means of a dry disperser. For a defined region of the glass plate, we measure the diffraction pattern as induced by the dispersed particles, and the 2D dimensions of the individual particles using LD and optical microscopy, respectively. We demonstrate a correlation between LD and SIA, with the scattering intensity of the individual particles as the dominant factor. In theory, the scattering intensity is related to the square of the projected area of both spherical and rectangular particles. In traditional LD the size distribution profile is dominated by the maximum projected area of the particles (A). The diffraction diameters of a rectangular particle with length L and breadth B as measured by the LD instrument approximately correspond to spheres of diameter ØL and ØB respectively. Differences in the scattering intensity between spherical and rectangular particles suggest that the contribution made to the overall LD volume probability distribution by each rectangular particle is proportional to A2/L and A2/B. Accordingly, for rectangular particles the scattering intensity weighted diffraction diameter (SIWDD) explains an overestimation of their shortest dimension and an underestimation of their longest dimension. This study analyzes various samples of particles whose length ranges from approximately 10 to 1000 μm. The correlation we demonstrate between LD and SIA can be used to improve validation of LD methods based on SIA data for a variety of pharmaceutical powders all with a different rectangular particle size and shape.

The Optimisation of the Draft Tube of a Hydro Power Plant at Off-Design Conditions

Several possible methods of increasing the efficiency and power of hydro power plants by improving the flow passages are investigated in this stydy. The theoretical background of diffuser design and its application to the optimisation of hydraulic turbine draft tubes is presented in the first part of this study. Several draft tube modernisation projects that have been carried out recently are discussed. Also, a method of increasing the efficiency of the draft tube by injecting a high velocity jet into the boundary layer is presented. Methods of increasing the head of a hydro power plant by using an ejector or a jet pump are discussed in the second part of this work. The theoretical principles of various ejector and jet pump types are presented and four different methods of calculating them are examined in more detail. A self-made computer code is used to calculate the gain in the head for two example power plants. Suitable ejector installations for the example plants are also discussed. The efficiency of the ejector power was found to be in the range 6 - 15 % for conventional head increasers, and 30 % for the jet pump at its optimum operating point. In practice, it is impossible to install an optimised jet pump with a 30 % efficiency into the draft tube as this would considerabely reduce the efficiency of the draft tube at normal operating conditions. This demonstrates, however, the potential for improvement which lies in conventional head increaser technology. This study is based on previous publications and on published test results. No actual laboratory measurements were made for this study. Certain aspects of modelling the flow in the draft tube using computational fluid dynamics are discussed in the final part of this work. The draft tube inlet velocity field is a vital boundary condition for such a calculation. Several previously measured velocity fields that have successfully been utilised in such flow calculations are presented herein.

Elastic properties and secondary structure formation of single-stranded DNA at monovalent and divalent salt conditions

Single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) plays a major role in several biological processes. It is therefore of fundamental interest to understand how the elastic response and the formation of secondary structures are modulated by the interplay between base pairing and electrostatic interactions. Here we measure force-extension curves (FECs) of ssDNA molecules in optical tweezers set up over two orders of magnitude of monovalent and divalent salt conditions, and obtain its elastic parameters by fitting the FECs to semiflexible models of polymers. For both monovalent and divalent salts, we find that the electrostatic contribution to the persistence length is proportional to the Debye screening length, varying as the inverse of the square root of cation concentration. The intrinsic persistence length is equal to 0.7 nm for both types of salts, and the effectivity of divalent cations in screening electrostatic interactions appears to be 100-fold as compared with monovalent salt, in line with what has been recently reported for single-stranded RNA. Finally, we propose an analysis of the FECs using a model that accounts for the effective thickness of the filament at low salt condition and a simple phenomenological description that quantifies the formation of non-specific secondary structure at low forces.

L'événement comme moyen d'expression religieuse et politique : la marche bleue d'Abdoulaye Wade et la marche des Mourides à Harlem ou comment les conditions d'accès à l'espace public outre-atlantique concurrencent l'Europe

Actes de Géoforum 2004 (Poitiers) : "Les migrations internationales : connaitre et comprendre".

The AirView Study: Comparison of Intubation Conditions and Ease between the Airtraq-AirView and the King Vision.

We conducted a study assessing the quality and speed of intubation between the Airtraq with its new iPhone AirView app and the King Vision in a manikin. The primary endpoint was reduction of time needed for intubation. Secondary endpoints included times necessary for intubation. 30 anaesthetists randomly performed 3 intubations with each device on a difficult airway manikin. Participants had a professional experience of 12 years: 60.0% possessed the Airtraq in their hospital, 46.7% the King Vision, and 20.0% both. Median time difference [IQR] to identify glottis (1.1 [-1.3; 3.9] P = 0.019), for tube insertion (2.1 [-2.6; 9.4] P = 0.002) and lung ventilation (2.8 [-2.4; 11.5] P = 0.001), was shorter with the Airtraq-AirView. Median time for glottis visualization was significantly shorter with the Airtraq-AirView (5.3 [4.0; 8.4] versus 6.4 [4.6; 9.1]). Cormack Lehane before intubation was better with the King Vision (P = 0.03); no difference was noted during intubation, for subjective device insertion or quality of epiglottis visualisation. Assessment of tracheal tube insertion was better with the Airtraq-AirView. The Airtraq-AirView allows faster identification of the landmarks and intubation in a difficult airway manikin, while clinical relevance remains to be studied. Anaesthetists assessed the intubation better with the Airtraq-AirView.

Eye-tracking of nodule detection in lung CT volumetric data.

PURPOSE: Signal detection on 3D medical images depends on many factors, such as foveal and peripheral vision, the type of signal, and background complexity, and the speed at which the frames are displayed. In this paper, the authors focus on the speed with which radiologists and naïve observers search through medical images. Prior to the study, the authors asked the radiologists to estimate the speed at which they scrolled through CT sets. They gave a subjective estimate of 5 frames per second (fps). The aim of this paper is to measure and analyze the speed with which humans scroll through image stacks, showing a method to visually display the behavior of observers as the search is made as well as measuring the accuracy of the decisions. This information will be useful in the development of model observers, mathematical algorithms that can be used to evaluate diagnostic imaging systems. METHODS: The authors performed a series of 3D 4-alternative forced-choice lung nodule detection tasks on volumetric stacks of chest CT images iteratively reconstructed in lung algorithm. The strategy used by three radiologists and three naïve observers was assessed using an eye-tracker in order to establish where their gaze was fixed during the experiment and to verify that when a decision was made, a correct answer was not due only to chance. In a first set of experiments, the observers were restricted to read the images at three fixed speeds of image scrolling and were allowed to see each alternative once. In the second set of experiments, the subjects were allowed to scroll through the image stacks at will with no time or gaze limits. In both static-speed and free-scrolling conditions, the four image stacks were displayed simultaneously. All trials were shown at two different image contrasts. RESULTS: The authors were able to determine a histogram of scrolling speeds in frames per second. The scrolling speed of the naïve observers and the radiologists at the moment the signal was detected was measured at 25-30 fps. For the task chosen, the performance of the observers was not affected by the contrast or experience of the observer. However, the naïve observers exhibited a different pattern of scrolling than the radiologists, which included a tendency toward higher number of direction changes and number of slices viewed. CONCLUSIONS: The authors have determined a distribution of speeds for volumetric detection tasks. The speed at detection was higher than that subjectively estimated by the radiologists before the experiment. The speed information that was measured will be useful in the development of 3D model observers, especially anthropomorphic model observers which try to mimic human behavior.

Macroporous Scaffolds for Bone Engineering. Studies on Cell Culture and Ectopic Bone Formation

Bone engineering is a rapidly developing area of reconstructive medicine where bone inducing factors and/or cells are combined with a scaffold material to regenerate the structure and function of the original tissue. The aim of this study was to compare the suitability of different macroporous scaffold types for bone engineering applications. The two scaffold categories studied were a) the mechanically strong and stable titanium fiber meshes and b) the elastic and biodegradable porous polymers. Furthermore, bioactive modifications were applied to these basic scaffold types, and their effect on the osteogenic responses was evaluated in cell culture and ectopic bone formation studies. The osteogenic phenotype of cultured cell-scaffold constructs was heightened with a sol-gel derived titania coating, but not with a mixed titania-silica coating. The latter coating also resulted in delayed ectopic bone formation in bone marrow stromal cell seeded scaffolds. However, the better bone contact in early implantation times and more even bone tissue distribution at later times indicated enhanced osteoconductivity of both the coated scaffold types. Overall, the most promising bone engineering results were obtained with titania coated fiber meshes. Elastic and biodegradable poly(ε-caprolactone/D,L-lactide) based scaffolds were also developed in this study. The degradation rates of the scaffolds in vitro were governed by the hydrophilicity of the polymer matrix, and the porous architecture was controlled by the amount and type of porogen used. A continuous phase macroporosity was obtained using a novel CaCl2 • 6H2O porogen. Dynamic culture conditions increased cell invasion, but decreased cell numbers and osteogenicity, within the scaffolds. Osteogenic differentiation in static cultures and ectopic bone formation in cell seeded scaffolds were enhanced in composites, with 30 wt-% of bioactive glass filler.

Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.