Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies

External forcing and internal dynamics result in climate system variability ranging from sub-daily weather to multi-centennial trends and beyond1, 2. State-of-the-art palaeoclimatic methods routinely use hydroclimatic proxies to reconstruct temperature (for example, refs 3, 4), possibly blurring differences in the variability continuum of temperature and precipitation before the instrumental period. Here, we assess the spectral characteristics of temperature and precipitation fluctuations in observations, model simulations and proxy records across the globe. We find that whereas an ensemble of different general circulation models represents patterns captured in instrumental measurements, such as land–ocean contrasts and enhanced low-frequency tropical variability, the tree-ring-dominated proxy collection does not. The observed dominance of inter-annual precipitation fluctuations is not reflected in the annually resolved hydroclimatic proxy records. Likewise, temperature-sensitive proxies overestimate, on average, the ratio of low- to high-frequency variability. These spectral biases in the proxy records seem to propagate into multi-proxy climate reconstructions for which we observe an overestimation of low-frequency signals. Thus, a proper representation of the high- to low-frequency spectrum in proxy records is needed to reduce uncertainties in climate reconstruction efforts.

Recent environmental change and trace metal pollution in World Heritage Bathurst Harbour, southwest Tasmania, Australia

Bathurst Harbour in World Heritage southwest Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s most pristine estuarine systems. At present there is a lack of data on pollution impacts or long-term natural variability in the harbor. A ca. 350-year-old 210Pb-dated sediment core was analysed for trace metals to track pollution impacts from local and long-range sources. Lead and antimony increased from AD 1870 onwards, which likely reflects remote (i.e. mainland Australian and global) atmospheric pollution sources. Variability in the concentrations of copper and zinc closely followed the history of mining activities in western Tasmania, which began in the AD 1880s. Tin was generally low throughout the core, except for a large peak in AD 1989 ± 0.5 years, which may be a consequence of input from a local small-scale alluvial tin mine. Changes in diatom assemblages were also investigated. The diatom flora was composed mostly of planktonic freshwater and benthic brackish-marine species, consistent with stratified estuarine conditions. Since mining began, however, an overall decrease in the proportion of planktonic to benthic taxa occurred, with the exception of two distinct peaks in the twentieth century that coincided with periods of high rainfall. Despite the region’s remoteness, trace metal analyses revealed evidence of atmospheric pollution from Tasmanian and possibly longer-range mining activities. This, together with recent low rainfall, appears to have contributed to altering the diatom assemblages in one of the most pristine temperate estuaries in the world.

Charm mass effects in bulk channel correlations

The bulk viscosity of thermalized QCD matter at temperatures above a few hundred MeV could be significantly influenced by charm quarks because their contribution arises four perturbative orders before purely gluonic effects. In an attempt to clarify the challenges of a lattice study, we determine the relevant imaginary-time correlator (of massive scalar densities) up to NLO in perturbation theory, and compare with existing data. We find discrepancies much larger than in the vector channel; this may hint, apart from the importance of taking a continuum limit, to larger non-perturbative effects in the scalar channel. We also recall how a transport peak related to the scalar density spectral function encodes non-perturbative information concerning the charm quark chemical equilibration rate close to equilibrium.

Calculating track thrust with track functions

In e+e− event shapes studies at LEP, two different measurements were sometimes performed: a “calorimetric” measurement using both charged and neutral particles and a “track-based” measurement using just charged particles. Whereas calorimetric measurements are infrared and collinear safe, and therefore calculable in perturbative QCD, track-based measurements necessarily depend on nonperturbative hadronization effects. On the other hand, track-based measurements typically have smaller experimental uncertainties. In this paper, we present the first calculation of the event shape “track thrust” and compare to measurements performed at ALEPH and DELPHI. This calculation is made possible through the recently developed formalism of track functions, which are nonperturbative objects describing how energetic partons fragment into charged hadrons. By incorporating track functions into soft-collinear effective theory, we calculate the distribution for track thrust with next-to-leading logarithmic resummation. Due to a partial cancellation between nonperturbative parameters, the distributions for calorimeter thrust and track thrust are remarkably similar, a feature also seen in LEP data.

Calculating Track-Based Observables for the LHC

By using observables that only depend on charged particles (tracks), one can efficiently suppress pileup contamination at the LHC. Such measurements are not infrared safe in perturbation theory, so any calculation of track-based observables must account for hadronization effects. We develop a formalism to perform these calculations in QCD, by matching partonic cross sections onto new nonperturbative objects called track functions which absorb infrared divergences. The track function Ti(x) describes the energy fraction x of a hard parton i which is converted into charged hadrons. We give a field-theoretic definition of the track function and derive its renormalization group evolution, which is in excellent agreement with the pythia parton shower. We then perform a next-to-leading order calculation of the total energy fraction of charged particles in e+e−→ hadrons. To demonstrate the implications of our framework for the LHC, we match the pythia parton shower onto a set of track functions to describe the track mass distribution in Higgs plus one jet events. We also show how to reduce smearing due to hadronization fluctuations by measuring dimensionless track-based ratios.

Thermal 2-loop master spectral function at finite momentum

When considering NLO corrections to thermal particle production in the “relativistic” regime, in which the invariant mass squared of the produced particle is K2 ~ (πT)2, then the production rate can be expressed as a sum of a few universal “master” spectral functions. Taking the most complicated 2-loop master as an example, a general strategy for obtaining a convergent 2-dimensional integral representation is suggested. The analysis applies both to bosonic and fermionic statistics, and shows that for this master the non-relativistic approximation is only accurate for K2 ~(8πT)2, whereas the zero-momentum approximation works surprisingly well. Once the simpler masters have been similarly resolved, NLO results for quantities such as the right-handed neutrino production rate from a Standard Model plasma or the dilepton production rate from a QCD plasma can be assembled for K2 ~ (πT)2.

Bayesian Approach to Spectral Function Reconstruction for Euclidean Quantum Field Theories

We present a novel approach to the inference of spectral functions from Euclidean time correlator data that makes close contact with modern Bayesian concepts. Our method differs significantly from the maximum entropy method (MEM). A new set of axioms is postulated for the prior probability, leading to an improved expression, which is devoid of the asymptotically flat directions present in the Shanon-Jaynes entropy. Hyperparameters are integrated out explicitly, liberating us from the Gaussian approximations underlying the evidence approach of the maximum entropy method. We present a realistic test of our method in the context of the nonperturbative extraction of the heavy quark potential. Based on hard-thermal-loop correlator mock data, we establish firm requirements in the number of data points and their accuracy for a successful extraction of the potential from lattice QCD. Finally we reinvestigate quenched lattice QCD correlators from a previous study and provide an improved potential estimation at T2.33TC.