The implications of the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy reforms for land use and landscape quality in England

The assessment of the potential landscape impacts of the latest Common Agricultural Policy reforms constitutes a challenge for policy makers and it requires the development of models that can reliably project the likely spatial distribution of land uses. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of 2003 CAP reforms to land uses and rural landscapes across England. For this purpose we modified an existing economic model of agriculture, the Land-Use Allocation Model (LUAM) to provide outputs at a scale appropriate for informing a semi-quantitative landscape assessment at the level of ‘Joint Character Areas’ (JCAs). Overall a decline in the cereal and oilseed production area is projected but intensive arable production will persist in specific locations (East of England, East Midlands and South East), having ongoing negative effects on the character of many JCAs. The impacts of de-coupling will be far more profound on the livestock sector; extensification of production will occur in traditional mixed farming regions (e.g. the South West), a partial displacement of cattle by sheep in the upland regions and an increase in the sheep numbers is expected in the lowlands (South East, Eastern and East Midlands). This extensification process will affect positively those JCAs of mixed farming conditions, but it will have negative impacts on the JCAs of historically low intensity farming (e.g. the uplands of north-west) because they will suffer from under-management and land idling. Our analysis shows that the territorialisation between intensively and extensively agricultural landscapes will continue.

Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm

We study the feasibility of using the singular vector technique to create initial condition perturbations for short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPS) focussing on predictability of severe local storms and in particular deep convection. For this a new final time semi-norm based on the convective available potential energy (CAPE) is introduced. We compare singular vectors using the CAPE-norm with SVs using the more common total energy (TE) norm for a 2-week summer period in 2007, which includes a case of mesoscale extreme rainfall in the south west of Finland. The CAPE singular vectors perturb the CAPE field by increasing the specific humidity and temperature of the parcel and increase the lapse rate above the parcel in the lower troposphere consistent with physical considerations. The CAPE-SVs are situated in the lower troposphere. This in contrast to TE-SVs with short optimization times which predominantly remain in the high troposphere. By examining the time evolution of the CAPE singular values we observe that the convective event in the south west of Finland is clearly associated with high CAPE singular values.

The impact of installer business models on the uptake of residential microgeneration in the UK: Evidence from a nation-wide survey

This paper arises from a doctoral thesis comparing the impact of alternative installer business models on the rate at which microgeneration is taken up in homes and installation standards across the UK. The paper presents the results of the first large-scale academic survey of businesses certified to install residential microgeneration. The aim is to systematically capture those characteristics which define the business model of each surveyed company, and relate these to the number, location and type of technologies that they install, and the quality of these installations. The methodology comprised a pilot web survey of 235 certified installer businesses, which was carried out in June last year and achieved a response rate of 30%. Following optimisation of the design, the main web survey was emailed to over 2000 businesses between October and December 2011, with 317 valid responses received. The survey is being complemented during summer 2012 by semi-structured interviews with a representative sample of installers who completed the main survey. The survey results are currently being analysed. The early results indicate an emerging and volatile market where solar PV, solar hot water and air source heat pumps are the dominant technologies. Three quarters of respondents are founders of their installer business, while only 22 businesses are owned by another company. Over half of the 317 businesses have five employees or less, while 166 businesses are no more than four years old. In addition, half of the businesses stated that 100% of their employees work on microgeneration-related activities. 85% of the surveyed companies have only one business location in the UK. A third of the businesses are based either in the South West or South East regions of England. This paper outlines the interim results of the survey combined with the outcomes from additional interviews with installers to date. The research identifies some of the business models underpinning microgeneration installers and some of the ways in which installer business models impact on the rate and standards of microgeneration uptake. A tentative conclusion is that installer business models are profoundly dependent on the levels and timing of support from the UK Feed-in Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive.

File Transfer Protocol

The discourse surrounding the virtual has moved away from the utopian thinking accompanying the rise of the Internet in the 1990s. The Cyber-gurus of the last decades promised a technotopia removed from materiality and the confines of the flesh and the built environment, a liberation from old institutions and power structures. But since then, the virtual has grown into a distinct yet related sphere of cultural and political production that both parallels and occasionally flows over into the old world of material objects. The strict dichotomy of matter and digital purity has been replaced more recently with a more complex model where both the world of stuff and the world of knowledge support, resist and at the same time contain each other. Online social networks amplify and extend existing ones; other cultural interfaces like youtube have not replaced the communal experience of watching moving images in a semi-public space (the cinema) or the semi-private space (the family living room). Rather the experience of viewing is very much about sharing and communicating, offering interpretations and comments. Many of the web’s strongest entities (Amazon, eBay, Gumtree etc.) sit exactly at this juncture of applying tools taken from the knowledge management industry to organize the chaos of the material world along (post-)Fordist rationality. Since the early 1990s there have been many artistic and curatorial attempts to use the Internet as a platform of producing and exhibiting art, but a lot of these were reluctant to let go of the fantasy of digital freedom. Storage Room collapses the binary opposition of real and virtual space by using online data storage as a conduit for IRL art production. The artworks here will not be available for viewing online in a 'screen' environment but only as part of a downloadable package with the intention that the exhibition could be displayed (in a physical space) by any interested party and realised as ambitiously or minimally as the downloader wishes, based on their means. The artists will therefore also supply a set of instructions for the physical installation of the work alongside the digital files. In response to this curatorial initiative, File Transfer Protocol invites seven UK based artists to produce digital art for a physical environment, addressing the intersection between the virtual and the material. The files range from sound, video, digital prints and net art, blueprints for an action to take place, something to be made, a conceptual text piece, etc. About the works and artists: Polly Fibre is the pseudonym of London-based artist Christine Ellison. Ellison creates live music using domestic devices such as sewing machines, irons and slide projectors. Her costumes and stage sets propose a physical manifestation of the virtual space that is created inside software like Photoshop. For this exhibition, Polly Fibre invites the audience to create a musical composition using a pair of amplified scissors and a turntable. http://www.pollyfibre.com John Russell, a founding member of 1990s art group Bank, is an artist, curator and writer who explores in his work the contemporary political conditions of the work of art. In his digital print, Russell collages together visual representations of abstract philosophical ideas and transforms them into a post apocalyptic landscape that is complex and banal at the same time. www.john-russell.org The work of Bristol based artist Jem Nobel opens up a dialogue between the contemporary and the legacy of 20th century conceptual art around questions of collectivism and participation, authorship and individualism. His print SPACE concretizes the representation of the most common piece of Unicode: the vacant space between words. In this way, the gap itself turns from invisible cipher to sign. www.jemnoble.com Annabel Frearson is rewriting Mary Shelley's Frankenstein using all and only the words from the original text. Frankenstein 2, or the Monster of Main Stream, is read in parts by different performers, embodying the psychotic character of the protagonist, a mongrel hybrid of used language. www.annabelfrearson.com Darren Banks uses fragments of effect laden Holywood films to create an impossible space. The fictitious parts don't add up to a convincing material reality, leaving the viewer with a failed amalgamation of simulations of sophisticated technologies. www.darrenbanks.co.uk FIELDCLUB is collaboration between artist Paul Chaney and researcher Kenna Hernly. Chaney and Hernly developed together a project that critically examines various proposals for the management of sustainable ecological systems. Their FIELDMACHINE invites the public to design an ideal agricultural field. By playing with different types of crops that are found in the south west of England, it is possible for the user, for example, to create a balanced, but protein poor, diet or to simply decide to 'get rid' of half the population. The meeting point of the Platonic field and it physical consequences, generates a geometric abstraction that investigates the relationship between modernist utopianism and contemporary actuality. www.fieldclub.co.uk Pil and Galia Kollectiv, who have also curated the exhibition are London-based artists and run the xero, kline & coma gallery. Here they present a dialogue between two computers. The conversation opens with a simple text book problem in business studies. But gradually the language, mimicking the application of game theory in the business sector, becomes more abstract. The two interlocutors become adversaries trapped forever in a competition without winners. www.kollectiv.co.uk

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part II: Eddy feedbacks

Many global climate models (GCMs) have trouble simulating Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variability correctly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer season where it tends to be too persistent. In this two part study, a suite of experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is analyzed to improve our understanding of the dynamics of SAM variability and its deficiencies in GCMs. Here, an examination of the eddy-mean flow feedbacks is presented by quantification of the feedback strength as a function of zonal scale and season using a new methodology that accounts for intraseasonal forcing of the SAM. In the observed atmosphere, in the summer season, a strong negative feedback by planetary scale waves, in particular zonal wavenumber 3, is found in a localized region in the south west Pacific. It cancels a large proportion of the positive feedback by synoptic and smaller scale eddies in the zonal mean, resulting in a very weak overall eddy feedback on the SAM. CMAM is deficient in this negative feedback by planetary scale waves, making a substantial contribution to its bias in summertime SAM persistence. Furthermore, this bias is not alleviated by artificially improving the climatological circulation, suggesting that climatological circulation biases are not the cause of the planetary wave feedback deficiency in the model. Analysis of the summertime eddy feedbacks in the CMIP-5 models confirms that this is indeed a common problem among GCMs, suggesting that understanding this planetary wave feedback and the reason for its deficiency in GCMs is key to improving the fidelity of simulated SAM variability in the summer season.

Do phytoplankton communities evolve through a self-regulatory abundance-diversity relationship?

A small group of phytoplankton species that produce toxic or allelopathic chemicals has a significant effect on plankton dynamics in marine ecosystems. The species of non-toxic phytoplankton, which are large in number, are affected by the toxin-allelopathy of those species. By analysis of the abundance data of marine phytoplankton collected from the North-West coast of the Bay of Bengal, an empirical relationship between the abundance of the potential toxin-producing species and the species diversity of the non-toxic phytoplankton is formulated. A change-point analysis demonstrates that the diversity of non-toxic phytoplankton increases with the increase of toxic species up to a certain level. However, for a massive increase of the toxin-producing species the diversity of phytoplankton at species level reduces gradually. Following the results, a deterministic relationship between the abundance of toxic phytoplankton and the diversity of non-toxic phytoplankton is developed. The abundance–diversity relationship develops a unimodal pathway through which the abundance of toxic species regulates the diversity of phytoplankton. These results contribute to the current understanding of the coexistence and biodiversity of phytoplankton, the top-down vs. bottom-up debate, and to that of abundance–diversity relationship in marine ecosystems.

Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season

The Indian monsoon is an important component of Earth's climate system, accurate forecasting of its mean rainfall being essential for regional food and water security. Accurate measurement of the rainfall is essential for various water-related applications, the evaluation of numerical models and detection and attribution of trends, but a variety of different gridded rainfall datasets are available for these purposes. In this study, six gridded rainfall datasets are compared against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall dataset, chosen as the most representative of the observed system due to its high gauge density. The datasets comprise those based solely on rain gauge observations and those merging rain gauge data with satellite-derived products. Various skill scores and subjective comparisons are carried out for the Indian region during the south-west monsoon season (June to September). Relative biases and skill metrics are documented at all-India and sub-regional scales. In the gauge-based (land-only) category, Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) and Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) datasets perform better relative to the others in terms of a variety of skill metrics. In the merged category, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset is shown to perform better than the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) for the Indian monsoon in terms of various metrics, when compared with the IMD gridded data. Most of the datasets have difficulty in representing rainfall over orographic regions including the Western Ghats mountains, in north-east India and the Himalayan foothills. The wide range of skill scores seen among the datasets and even the change of sign of bias found in some years are causes of concern. This uncertainty between datasets is largest in north-east India. These results will help those studying the Indian monsoon region to select an appropriate dataset depending on their application and focus of research.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Meta-morphs: – being a mediator of the ‘thin’ place and ‘thin’ experience in the HE classroom. A paper on the experience of creating transformations in HE teaching and learning

The research which underpins this paper began as a doctoral project exploring archaic beliefs concerning Otherworlds and Thin Places in two particular landscapes - the West Coast of Wales and the West Coast of Ireland. A Thin Place is an ancient Celtic Christian term used to describe a marginal, liminal realm, beyond everyday human experience and perception, where mortals could pass into the Otherworld more readily, or make contact with those in the Otherworld more willingly. To encounter a Thin Place in ancient folklore was significant because it engendered a state of alertness, an awakening to what the theologian John O’ Donohue (2004: 49) called “the primal affection.” These complex notions and terms will be further explored in this paper in relation to Education. Thin Teaching is a pedagogical approach which offers students the space to ruminate on the possibility that their existence can be more and can mean more than the categories they believed they belonged to or felt they should inhabit. Central to the argument then, is that certain places and their inhabitants can become revitalised by sensitively considered teaching methodologies. This raises interesting questions about the role spirituality plays in teaching practice as a tool for healing in the twenty first century.

The Patriarchal Palace at Constantinople in the seventh century: locating the Thomaites and the Makron

New archaeological evidence suggests that the important patriarchal buildings called the Thomaites and Makron were immediately south-west of the sixth-century church of Hagia Sophia, rather than to its north-east as usually supposed. These structures were built in the sixth-century, suggesting only limited rebuilding of the Patriarchate by patriarch Thomas in the early seventh century.

Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data

The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding is affected by its soil moisture prior to an extreme rainfall event. While soil moisture is routinely observed by satellite instruments, results from previous work on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into hydrologic models have been mixed. This may have been due in part to the low spatial resolution of the observations used. In this study, the remote sensing aspects of a project attempting to improve flow predictions from a distributed hydrologic model by assimilating soil moisture measurements are described. Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath data were used to measure soil moisture as, unlike low resolution microwave data, they have sufficient resolution to allow soil moisture variations due to local topography to be detected, which may help to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Surface soil moisture content (SSMC) was measured over the catchments of the Severn and Avon rivers in the South West UK. To reduce the influence of vegetation, measurements were made only over homogeneous pixels of improved grassland determined from a land cover map. Radar backscatter was corrected for terrain variations and normalized to a common incidence angle. SSMC was calculated using change detection. To search for evidence of a topographic signal, the mean SSMC from improved grassland pixels on low slopes near rivers was compared to that on higher slopes. When the mean SSMC on low slopes was 30–90%, the higher slopes were slightly drier than the low slopes. The effect was reversed for lower SSMC values. It was also more pronounced during a drying event. These findings contribute to the scant information in the literature on the use of high resolution SAR soil moisture measurement to improve hydrologic models.

Application of two-dimensional wavelet transform in near-shore X-band radar images

Among existing remote sensing applications, land-based X-band radar is an effective technique to monitor the wave fields, and spatial wave information could be obtained from the radar images. Two-dimensional Fourier Transform (2-D FT) is the common algorithm to derive the spectra of radar images. However, the wave field in the nearshore area is highly non-homogeneous due to wave refraction, shoaling, and other coastal mechanisms. When applied in nearshore radar images, 2-D FT would lead to ambiguity of wave characteristics in wave number domain. In this article, we introduce two-dimensional Wavelet Transform (2-D WT) to capture the non-homogeneity of wave fields from nearshore radar images. The results show that wave number spectra by 2-D WT at six parallel space locations in the given image clearly present the shoaling of nearshore waves. Wave number of the peak wave energy is increasing along the inshore direction, and dominant direction of the spectra changes from South South West (SSW) to West South West (WSW). To verify the results of 2-D WT, wave shoaling in radar images is calculated based on dispersion relation. The theoretical calculation results agree with the results of 2-D WT on the whole. The encouraging performance of 2-D WT indicates its strong capability of revealing the non-homogeneity of wave fields in nearshore X-band radar images.

Nuclear and extended spectra of NGC 1068-II. Near-infrared stellar population synthesis

We performed stellar population synthesis on the nuclear and extended regions of NGC 1068 by means of near-infrared spectroscopy to disentangle their spectral energy distribution components. This is the first time that such a technique is applied to the whole 0.8-2.4 mu m wavelength interval in this galaxy. NGC 1068 is one of the nearest and probably the most studied Seyfert 2 galaxy, becoming an excellent laboratory to study the interaction between black holes, the jets that they can produce and the medium in which they propagate. Our main result is that traces of young stellar population are found at similar to 100 pc south of the nucleus. The contribution of a power-law continuum in the centre is about 25 per cent, which is expected if the light is scattered from a Seyfert 1 nucleus. We find peaks in the contribution of the featureless continuum about 100-150 pc from the nucleus on both sides. They might be associated with regions where the jet encounters dense clouds. Further support to this scenario is given by the peaks of hot dust distribution found around these same regions and the H(2) emission-line profile, leading us to propose that the peaks might be associated to regions where stars are being formed. Hot dust also has an important contribution to the nuclear region, reinforcing the idea of the presence of a dense, circumnuclear torus in this galaxy. Cold dust appears mostly in the south direction, which supports the view that the south-west emission is behind the plane of the galaxy and is extinguished very likely by dust in the plane. Intermediate-age stellar population contributes significantly to the continuum, especially in the inner 200 pc.

The genus Prosphaerosyllis (Polychaeta: Syllidae: Exogoninae) in Brazil, with description of a new species

In studies carried out off the north-eastern and south-eastern coast of Brazil, three species of Prosphaerosyllis were found: P. isabellae, which was already recorded for Brazilian waters; P. xarifae, a newly recorded species for the area; and P. brachycephala sp. nov., a new to science species. Prosphaerosyllis brachycephala sp. nov., is characterized by having swollen anterior part of the body, prostomium retractable within the peristomium and anterior segments, short antennae, short peristomial and dorsal cirri, and falcigers with short, unidentate blades throughout. All these species are herein described and compared to the most similar congeners.

Food resources influencing the asexual reproductive cycle of coronate Scyphozoa

The study of the strobilation process, a feature unique in the class Scyphozoa, is an issue that helps understanding the patterns of asexual reproduction in sessile invertebrates. Many inducers of asexual reproduction are known for scyphozoans. However, the influence of food resources on the strobilation of Coronate Scyphozoa has never been tested. WO observed strobilation of a large number of polyps of Nausithoe aurea, from a wide sampling area along the South Atlantic coast of Brazil, through the administration of controlled number of hatched nauplii of Artemia franciscana under a previous tested starvation and feeding protocol. The number of strobilations between and within groups varied and the fate and shape of strobilation deviated from the biology reported in the original description. Artificial seawater was used to reduce the influence of dissolved organic matter as likely important alternative nourishment.