Integration of knowledge-based, qualitative and numeric tools for real time dynamic systems supervision

The proposal presented in this thesis is to provide designers of knowledge based supervisory systems of dynamic systems with a framework to facilitate their tasks avoiding interface problems among tools, data flow and management. The approach is thought to be useful to both control and process engineers in assisting their tasks. The use of AI technologies to diagnose and perform control loops and, of course, assist process supervisory tasks such as fault detection and diagnose, are in the scope of this work. Special effort has been put in integration of tools for assisting expert supervisory systems design. With this aim the experience of Computer Aided Control Systems Design (CACSD) frameworks have been analysed and used to design a Computer Aided Supervisory Systems (CASSD) framework. In this sense, some basic facilities are required to be available in this proposed framework: ·

Noise levels and hearing conservation in a water treatment facility

This paper describes a study assessing the sound levels and noise exposures of a municipal water treatment plant to determine the level of employee noise exposure dosages and to make any necessary recommendations regarding reducing the risk of noise induced hearing loss in employees.

High frequency audiometry: sound suite versus hospital room

This paper discusses a study to assess and compare frequency audiometric thresholds obtained under two listening environments--a sound suite and a typical hospital room.

Artificial Cavities and Nest Site Selection by Puerto Rican Parrots: a Multiscale Assessment

We examined nest site selection by Puerto Rican Parrots, a secondary cavity nester, at several spatial scales using the nest entrance as the central focal point relative to 20 habitat and spatial variables. The Puerto Rican Parrot is unique in that, since 2001, all known nesting in the wild has occurred in artificial cavities, which also provided us with an opportunity to evaluate nest site selection without confounding effects of the actual nest cavity characteristics. Because of the data limitations imposed by the small population size of this critically endangered endemic species, we employed a distribution-free statistical simulation approach to assess site selection relative to characteristics of used and unused nesting sites. Nest sites selected by Puerto Rican Parrots were characterized by greater horizontal and vertical visibility from the nest entrance, greater density of mature sierra palms, and a more westerly and leeward orientation of nest entrances than unused sites. Our results suggest that nest site selection in this species is an adaptive response to predation pressure, to which the parrots respond by selecting nest sites offering advantages in predator detection and avoidance at all stages of the nesting cycle. We conclude that identifying and replicating the “nest gestalt” of successful nesting sites may facilitate conservation efforts for this and other endangered avian species.

Plagiarism, contract cheating and final year projects

Presentation on pre-emption, detection and redirection in the context of the contract cheating form of plagiarism.

Investigating age related changes in taste and affects on sensory perceptions of oral nutritional supplements

Background: sip feeds are oral nutritional supplements (ONSs) that are commonly prescribed to malnourished patients to improve their nutritional and clinical status. However, ONSs are poorly consumed and frequently wasted, with sweetness being identified as one of the factors leading to patients’ dislike of ONSs. Objectives: to investigate if age affects sweetness thresholds and if this impacts upon perceived sweetness intensity, hedonic (sweetness and overall) and ranked preference of ONS products. Design: prospective, observational. Subjects: thirty-six young adults (18–33 years) and 48 healthy older adults (63–85 years). Setting: Department of Food and Nutritional Sciences and the Clinical Health Sciences at the University of Reading. Methods: detection and recognition threshold levels, basic taste identification and ‘just about right’ level of sweetness were examined. Three ONSs (chocolate, vanilla, strawberry) and sucrose solutions were evaluated for hedonic sweetness, overall hedonic liking, sweetness intensity and rank preference. Results: significant differences were found in both sweetness detection and recognition thresholds (P = 0.0001) between young and older adults, with older adults more likely to incorrectly identify the taste (P = 0.0001). Despite the deterioration in sweetness sensitivity among the older adults, there were no significant differences found in sweetness intensity perceived for the ONS products presented (P > 0.05) when compared with the young adults. However, across both groups sweetness intensity was found to be correlated with overall product dislike across all flavour variants tested (R = 0.398, P = 0.0001). Conclusions: sweetness appears to be one of many factors contributing to the dislike of ONSs. Manufacturers are encouraged to reconsider the formulations of these products so that beneficial effects of ONSs can be delivered in a more palatable and acceptable form and wastage reduced.

Integrating drivers influencing the detection of plant pests carried in the international cut flower trade

This paper analyses the cut flower market as an example of an invasion pathway along which species of non-indigenous plant pests can travel to reach new areas. The paper examines the probability of pest detection by assessing information on pest detection and detection effort associated with the import of cut flowers. We test the link between the probability of plant pest arrivals as a precursor to potential invasion, and volume of traded flowers using count data regression models. The analysis is applied to the UK import of specific genera of cut flowers form Kenya between 1996 and 2004. There is a link between pest detection and the Genus of cut flower imported. Hence, pest detection efforts should focus on identifying and targeting those imported plants with a high risk of carrying pest species. For most of the plants studied efforts allocated to inspection have a significant influence on the probabilty of pest detction. However, by better targetting inspection efforts, it is shown that plant inspection effort could be reduced without increasing the risk of pest entry. Similarly, for most of the plants analysed, an increase in volume traded will not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of pests entering the UK. For some species, such as conclude that analysis at the rank of plant Genus is important both to understand the effectiveness of plant pest detection efforts and consequently to manage the risk of introduction of non-indigenous species.

Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Noise, predation risk compensation and vigilance in the chaffinch Fringilla coelebs

Background noise should in theory hinder detection of auditory cues associated with approaching danger. We tested whether foraging chaffinches Fringilla coelebs responded to background noise by increasing vigilance, and examined whether this was explained by predation risk compensation or by a novel stimulus hypothesis. The former predicts that only inter-scan interval should be modified in the presence of background noise, not vigilance levels generally. This is because noise hampers auditory cue detection and increases perceived predation risk primarily when in the head-down position, and also because previous tests have shown that only interscan interval is correlated with predator detection ability in this system. Chaffinches only modified interscan interval supporting this hypothesis. At the same time they made significantly fewer pecks when feeding during the background noise treatment and so the increased vigilance led to a reduction in intake rate, suggesting that compensating for the increased predation risk could indirectly lead to a fitness cost. Finally, the novel stimulus hypothesis predicts that chaffinches should habituate to the noise, which did not occur within a trial or over 5 subsequent trials. We conclude that auditory cues may be an important component of the trade-off between vigilance and feeding, and discuss possible implications for anti-predation theory and ecological processes

Identifying and understanding factors influencing the uptake of new technologies on dairy farms in SW England using the theory of reasoned action

Whilst much is known of new technology adopters, little research has addressed the role of their attitudes in adoption decisions; particularly, for technologies with evident economic potential that have not been taken up by farmers. This paper presents recent research that has used a new approach which examines the role that adopters' attitudes play in identifying the drivers of and barriers to adoption. The study was concerned with technologies for livestock farming systems in SW England, specifically oestrus detection, nitrogen supply management, and, inclusion of white clover. The adoption behaviour is analysed using the social-psychology theory of reasoned action to identify factors that affect the adoption of technologies, which are confirmed using principal components analysis. The results presented here relate to the specific adoption behaviour regarding the Milk Development Council's recommended observation times for heat detection. The factors that affect the adoption of this technology are: cost effectiveness, improved detection and conception rates as the main drivers, whilst the threat to demean the personal knowledge and skills of a farmer in 'knowing' their cows is a barrier. This research shows clearly that promotion of a technology and transfer of knowledge for a farming system need to take account of the beliefs and attitudes of potential adopters. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exudate flavones and flavanones in Origanum species and their interspecific variation

Surface flavonoids in nine species of Origanum, representing taxa from all three of the currently recognised subgeneric groups, were examined both by HPLC coupled to diode-array detection and APCI-MS. Many of the flavonoids present were characterised by O-substituent at C-6 (OH, OMe) and/or C-8 (OMe). In total, 25 flavones and flavanones are described in this study, of which 13 are new to the genus and 5,4'-dihydroxy-6,7,3'-trimethoxyflavanone is reported for the first time. Taxa in subgeneric Group A accumulated flavonoids with methoxyl groups at both C-6 and C-4'; however, taxa in subgeneric Group B did not accumulate 4'-methoxylated compounds, and taxa in Group C did not accumulate 6-methoxylated compounds. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Symposium on 'nutrition interventions in high-risk groups' - CVD risk in South Asians: the importance of defining adiposity and influence of dietary polyunsaturated fat

The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS), CVD and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is known to be higher in populations from the Indian subcontinent compared with the general UK population. While identification of this increased risk is crucial to allow for effective treatment, there is controversy over the applicability of diagnostic criteria, and particularly measures of adiposity in ethnic minorities. Diagnostic cut-offs for BMI and waist circumference have been largely derived from predominantly white Caucasian populations and, therefore, have been inappropriate and not transferable to Asian groups. Many Asian populations, particularly South Asians, have a higher total and central adiposity for a similar body weight compared with matched Caucasians and greater CVD risk associated with a lower BMI. Although the causes of CVD and T2D are multi-factorial, diet is thought to make a substantial contribution to the development of these diseases. Low dietary intakes and tissue levels of long-chain (LC) n-3 PUFA in South Asian populations have been linked to high-risk abnormalities in the MetS. Conversely, increasing the dietary intake of LC n-3 PUFA in South Asians has proved an effective strategy for correcting such abnormalities as dyslipidaemia in the MetS. Appropriate diagnostic criteria that include a modified definition of adiposity must be in place to facilitate the early detection and thus targeted treatment of increased risk in ethnic minorities.

Development of a liquid chromatographic time-of-flight mass spectrometric method for the determination of unlabelled and deuterium-labelled alpha-tocopherol in blood components

A method is described for the analysis of deuterated and undeuterated alpha-tocopherol in blood components using liquid chromatography coupled to an orthogonal acceleration time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometer. Optimal ionisation conditions for undeuterated (d0) and tri- and hexadeuterated (d3 or d6) alpha-tocopherol standards were found with negative ion mode electrospray ionisation. Each species produced an isotopically resolved single ion of exact mass. Calibration curves of pure standards were linear in the range tested (0-1.5 muM, 0-15 pmol injected). For quantification of d0 and d6 in blood components following a standard solvent extraction, a stable-isotope-labelled internal standard (d3-alpha-tocopherol) was employed. To counter matrix ion suppression effects, standard response curves were generated following identical solvent extraction procedures to those of the samples. Within-day and between-day precision were determined for quantification of d0- and d6-labelled alpha-tocopherol in each blood component and both averaged 3-10%. Accuracy was assessed by comparison with a standard high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method, achieving good correlation (r(2) = 0.94), and by spiking with known concentrations of alpha-tocopherol (98% accuracy). Limits of detection and quantification were determined to be 5 and 50 fmol injected, respectively. The assay was used to measure the appearance and disappearance of deuterium-labelled alpha-tocopherol in human blood components following deuterium-labelled (d6) RRR-alpha-tocopheryl acetate ingestion. The new LC/TOFMS method was found to be sensitive, required small sample volumes, was reproducible and robust, and was capable of high throughput when large numbers of samples were generated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.