Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.

When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countriesis through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors risk aversion and behavior. This paper presents a stylized model illustrating how heterogeneous changes in investors risk aversion affect portfolio allocation decisions and stock prices. Our empirical findings suggest that when funds returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In so doing, funds tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were overweight , increasing their exposure to countries in which they were underweight. Based on this insight, the paper constructs an index of financial interdependence which reflects the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. The index helps in explain the pattern of stock market comovement across countries. Moreover, a comparison of this interdependence measure to indices of trade or commercial bank linkages indicates that our index can improve predictions about which countries are more likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

Inundações Urbanas - Desafios ao Ordenamento do Território - O

Pela sua posição geográfica e particulares condições climáticas, devidas à sua inserção na faixa saheliana com caraterísticas de marcada aridez, Cabo Verde é um arquipélago com condições naturais adversas, pautado principalmente pela seca prolongada. Muitas vezes esta conjuntura é interpolada por curtos períodos de fortes chuvadas que podem originar cheias e inundações nos principais centros urbanos. Os eventos ocorridos revelam consequências graves, desde prejuízos na agricultura, perda de animais, destruição de infra-estruturas, perda de bens materiais e, mesmo, vítimas humanas mortais. Este estudo tem como objetivos principais: (i) perceber os problemas e desafios que se colocam à cidade da Praia (maior centro urbano do país, com forte crescimento e expansão urbana) perante situações de inundação; (ii) contribuir para o maior conhecimento das causas e consequências dessas inundações; (iii) definir quais as áreas de maior suscetibilidade às cheias e quais as que possuem um maior risco potencial. Optou-se por uma metodologia integrada, através do levantamento bibliográfico, cartográfico, numérico e percetivo (com base em entrevistas e inquéritos). Para o estudo das bacias hidrográficas foram calculados índices morfométricos, definidas classes de permeabilidade do substrato geológico e aplicado o método multicritério de Reis (2011) para a definição das áreas suscetíveis às cheias. Analisaram-se as precipitações máximas diárias anuais e respetivos períodos de retorno, com a aplicação do método de Gumbel. A análise de notícias de jornais, referentes ao período compreendido entre 1980 e 2011, foi fundamental para o conhecimento da distribuição espácio-temporal dos eventos perigosos de inundação em Cabo Verde e na cidade da Praia. Os resultados obtidos revelam um significativo grau de suscetibilidade às cheias na cidade da Praia. As áreas de maior risco potencial às inundações encontram-se no setor central da cidade, resultante da conjugação da convergência do escoamento das três ribeiras principais, da elevada densidade populacional e de construção desordenada nos leitos de cheia e nas áreas deprimidas, onde se acumulam as águas.

Erosão dos solos em Cabo Verde - Estudos dos Processos e Quantificação de Três Bacias na Ilha de Santiago

L’archipel du Cap Vert constitué de 10 îles volcaniques appartient à la zone sahélienne qui s’étend de l’atlantique jusqu’à la mer rouge. Depuis, plusieurs décennies le Cap Vert est affecté par la désertification causée en grande partie par la récession climatique et l’érosion des sols. Ces facteurs, associés à la forte pression anthropique sur les ressources, à l’orographie accidentée et à des pluies tropicales parfois diluviennes, provoquent de sérieuses pertes du patrimoine foncier. Cependant, depuis son Indépendance en 1975, le Gouvernement a mené un vaste programme d’arborisation, de restauration des terres et d’aménagement des cours d’eau. Pourtant, très peu de recherches ont été menées pour évaluer les actions de protection et de conservation des sols et des eaux. Par conséquent, il n’existe quasiment pas de données sur la problématique de la dégradation des terres ni de bilans. Dans le cadre de ce travail, nous avons étudié les différents facteurs qui contrôlent l’érosion hydrique des sols. Nous avons plus particulièrement cherché à différencier les effets des activités humaines, notamment agricoles, de ceux des facteurs climatiques comme les précipitations et la génération des écoulements. Nous avons également établi les premiers bilans d’exportations de matières en suspension et en solution dans le contexte de l’archipel du Cap Vert. L’étude a été menée à l’échelle de trois bassins versants de l’ile de Santiago Cap-Vert. Ces trois bassins versant (Longueira, Grande et Godim) sont localisés dans la partie centrale de l’île de Santiago et représentatifs des divers modes d’occupation du sol et des différents climats de l’île. Il existe un gradient climatique entre les trois bassins versants. En effet, Longueira qui présente une superficie de 4,18 km2, une pente moyenne de 47 %, se localise dans une zone humide couverte à 69 % par une forêt et une surface agricole de 17 %. Grande avec une superficie de 1,87 km2, se localise en zone sub humide pour une pente moyenne de 50 %, il est essentiellement agricole. Godim, avec une superficie de 2,0 km2, se localise en zone semi aride, il est particulièrement agricole et sa pente moyenne est de 32 %. Pour ces trois bassins versants, les écoulements de crue à l’exutoire ont été mesurés et échantillonnés de 2004 à 2009. Le bassin versant de Longueira a fait l’objet d’un suivi plus poussé, notamment en termes de fréquence d’échantillonnage et de suivi des écoulements hors crue. Sur chaque échantillon nous avons procédé à la détermination de la concentration des matières en suspension ainsi qu’à l’analyse des éléments majeurs. Les résultats obtenus montrent que l’érosion mécanique dans les 3 bassins versants est caractérisée par une forte variabilité spatiale et temporelle. Sur la période 2005-2009, le bilan moyen annuel pour les bassins versants de Longueira, Grande et Godim est de : 4266, 157 et 10,1 t.km2.an-1 respectivement. La saison humide 2006 a été la plus érosive pour l’ensemble des trois bassins versants et particulièrement dans Longueira avec 2 crues exceptionnelles qui ont généré une concentration moyenne de matières en suspension supérieure à 100 g/l. En revanche, les saisons 2005 et 2008 ont été dans l’ensemble peu érosives car les concentrations moyennes ne dépassèrent pas 20 g/l. Par ailleurs, il n’y a pas eu de lames d’eau écoulées pour les saisons 2005 et 2007 pour le bassin de Godim. Sur le bassin de Longueira, l’étude des phénomènes d’hystérésis permet de caractériser chaque crue et de montrer que l’évolution temporelle des exportations de matières en suspension au cours de la saison est fortement influencée par les activités agricoles. En effet, la première crue provoque l’exportation massive des sédiments disponibles et localisés dans le lit du cours d’eau. En conséquence, la seconde est moins exportatrice de sédiments. Un mois après les premières pluies, les activités de sarclage diminuent la densité du couvert végétal et destructurent la partie superficielle des sols, ce qui provoque à nouveau une très forte exportation de sédiments lors de la troisième crue. Les résultats de l’érosion chimique sur le bassin de Longueira indiquent que le taux d’érosion chimique moyen s’élève à 45 t.km2.an-1 avec une forte variabilité temporelle. En effet, les saisons les plus humides de 2006 et 2007 sont les plus exportatrices de matières en solution, alors que 2005 a eu une faible exportation. L’utilisation du modèle de mélanges EMMA (End-Members Mixing Analysis) montre que les écoulements hypodermique et profond, qui alimentent le cours d’eau en éléments dissous, sont les principaux facteurs de l’érosion chimique. On montre ainsi que les écoulements hors crue sont à l’origine de plus de 90% des flux d’érosion chimique. L’écoulement superficiel, qui contribue à environ 70 % du débit du cours d’eau en crue, constitue un facteur de premier plan de l’érosion mécanique des sols.

La ración de mantenimiento, la densidad de mantenimiento y la eficiencia de crecimiento de Engraulis ringens y Sardinops sagax como una medida de su potencia ecológica

Presentamos en este estudio resultados calculados sobre la potencia ecológica de la anchoveta y sardina peruana mediante el procesamiento de datos de los gastos metabólicos, velocidad de natación.e ingestión de alimento en relación a diferentes tallas de peces, temperaturas y densidades de alimento. Como medida de la potencia ecológica hemos calculado: (1) ración de mantenimiento, (2) la eficiencia de crecimiento y (3) densidad del alimento para mantenimiento. (para larvas). Asumiendo un alimento mixto de fito y zooplancton {1 g peso húmedo = 1000 cal) y una eficiencia de asimilación de 0.7 tenemos para la ración de mantenimiento expresada en calorías por individuo por día y en porcentaje del peso húmedo por día.

Toxic effects of essential plant oils in adult Sitophilus oryzae (Linnaeus) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae)

Toxic effects of essential plant oils in adult Sitophilus oryzae (Linnaeus) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae). Stored grains are subject to losses in quality nutritional value and in sanitation from the time they are stored to the time they are consumed. Botanical insecticides may offer an alternative solution for pest control. The objective was to test the insecticidal properties of the essential oils of Cymbopogon citratus (leaf), Zingiber officinale (root) and Mentha sp. (leaf). The efficacy of these oils was tested to control the rice weevil, S. oryzae, using hydrodistillation. Chemical analysis of the essential oils was carried out by gas chromatography. Major components of C. citratus were geranial (48%) and neral (31%), of Z. officinale were α-zingibereno (13%), geranial (16%), neral (10%) and α-farneseno (5%) and of Mentha sp. was menthol (92%). Bioassays were carried out by fumigation and topical application. In topical application assays, the essential oil of C. citratus had greater toxicity (LC50 0.027 µL mL-1) and shorter exposure time than the oils of the other two plants. After 24 h and 48 h, 70% and 100% mortality of S. oryzae occurred, respectively. In fumigation assays, essential oil of Z. officinale had a lower LC50 (1.18 µL cm-2) and 70% mortality after 24 h exposure. Therefore, we recommend the use of essential oils of C. citratus and Z. officinale to control the rice weevil S. oryzae.

Markups, gaps and the welfare costs of business fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted,the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

First report and morphological redescription of Teleonemia morio (Stål) (Hemiptera, Tingidae) in Annona squamosa L. (Annonaceae) in Brazil

First report and morphological redescription of Teleonemia morio (Stål) (Hemiptera, Tingidae) in Annona squamosa L. (Annonaceae) in Brazil. This is the first report of a severe attack of Teleonemia morio (Stål, 1855) (Hemiptera, Heteroptera, Tingidae) on Annona squamosa L. (custard apple), causing up to 80% of losses of infested trees. In order to facilitate the identification of this insect pest, the adult female of T. morio is redescribed based on specimens collected in Palmeira dos Índios, Alagoas, Brazil.

Insurance and safety after September 11, 2001: Coming to grips with the costs and threats of terrorism

This chapter, originally written as a consequence of the terrorist attacksof September 11, 2001, provides an elementary, everyday introduction tothe concepts of risk and insurance. Conceptually, risk has two dimensions:a potential loss, and the chance of that loss being realized. People can,however, transfer risk to insurance companies against the payment ofso-called premiums. In practice, however, one needs accurate assessmentsof both losses and probabilities to judge whether premiums are appropriate.For many risks, this poses little problem (e.g., life insurance); however,it is difficult to assess risks of many other kinds of events such as actsof terrorism. It is emphasized, that through evolution and learning, peopleare able to handle many of the common risks that they face in life. Butwhen people lack experience (e.g., new technologies, threats of terrorism),risk can only be assessed through imagination. Not surprisingly, insurancecompanies demand high prices when risks are poorly understood. In particular,the cost of insurance against possible acts of terrorism soared afterSeptember 11. How should people approach risk after the events of that day?Clearly, the world needs to protect itself from the acts of terrorists andother disturbed individuals. However, it is also important to address the root causes of such antisocial movements. It is, therefore, suggested thatprograms addressed at combatting ignorance, prejudice, and socialinequalities may be more effective premiums for reducing the risk ofterrosrtism than has been recognized to date.

La percepción del riesgo de inundación: experiencias de aprendizaje en la costa brava

Taking as an example three study cases in the Costa Brava area, this paper examines through surveys and interviews the perception of floods among residents living in hazardous areas. perception is then related to vulnerability, flood management, and citizens preferences regarding alternatives to curb flood losses in the future. The study concludes that flood awareness and the willingness to take actions regarding this hazard is clearly related to the degree of social involvement with the affairs of the local community

Definition of tolerable soil erosion values

Although the criteria for defining erosion tolerance are well established, the limits generally used are not consistent with natural, economical and technological conditions. Rates greater than soil formation can be accepted only until a minimum of soil depth is reached, provided that they are not associated with environmental hazard or productivity losses. A sequence of equations is presented to calculate erosion tolerance rates through time. The selection of equation parameters permits the definition of erosion tolerance rates in agreement with environmental, social and technical needs. The soil depth change that is related to irreversible soil degradation can be calculated. The definition of soil erosion tolerance according to these equations can be used as a guideline for sustainable land use planning and is compatible with expert systems.

Performance comparison of two commercial BGO-based PET/CT scanners using NEMA NU 2-2001.

Combined positron emission tomography and computed tomography (PET/CT) scanners play a major role in medicine for in vivo imaging in an increasing number of diseases in oncology, cardiology, neurology, and psychiatry. With the advent of short-lived radioisotopes other than 18F and newer scanners, there is a need to optimize radioisotope activity and acquisition protocols, as well as to compare scanner performances on an objective basis. The Discovery-LS (D-LS) was among the first clinical PET/CT scanners to be developed and has been extensively characterized with older National Electrical Manufacturer Association (NEMA) NU 2-1994 standards. At the time of publication of the latest version of the standards (NU 2-2001) that have been adapted for whole-body imaging under clinical conditions, more recent models from the same manufacturer, i.e., Discovery-ST (D-ST) and Discovery-STE (D-STE), were commercially available. We report on the full characterization both in the two- and three-dimensional acquisition mode of the D-LS according to latest NEMA NU 2-2001 standards (spatial resolution, sensitivity, count rate performance, accuracy of count losses, and random coincidence correction and image quality), as well as a detailed comparison with the newer D-ST widely used and whose characteristics are already published.

Parametrització de contorns oberts

Un dels principals problemes quan es realitza un anàlisi de contorns és la gran quantitat de dades implicades en la descripció de la figura. Per resoldre aquesta problemàtica, s’aplica la parametrització que consisteix en obtenir d’un contorn unes dades representatives amb els mínims coeficients possibles, a partir dels quals es podrà reconstruir de nou sense pèrdues molt evidents d’informació. En figures de contorns tancats, la parametrització més estudiada és l’aplicació de la transformada discreta de Fourier (DFT). Aquesta s’aplica a la seqüència de valors que descriu el comportament de les coordenades x i y al llarg de tots els punts que formen el traç. A diferència, en els contorns oberts no es pot aplicar directament la DFT ja que per fer-ho es necessita que el valor de x i de y siguin iguals tan en el primer punt del contorn com en l’últim. Això és degut al fet que la DFT representa sense error senyals periòdics. Si els senyals no acaben en el mateix punt, representa que hi ha una discontinuïtat i apareixen oscil·lacions a la reconstrucció. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és parametritzar contorns oberts amb la mateixa eficiència que s’obté en la parametrització de contorns tancats. Per dur-ho a terme, s’ha dissenyat un programa que permet aplicar la DFT en contorns oberts mitjançant la modificació de les seqüencies de x i y. A més a més, també utilitzant el programari Matlab s’han desenvolupat altres aplicacions que han permès veure diferents aspectes sobre la parametrització i com es comporten els Descriptors El·líptics de Fourier (EFD). Els resultats obtinguts han demostrat que l’aplicació dissenyada permet la parametrització de contorns oberts amb compressions òptimes, fet que facilitarà l’anàlisi quantitatiu de formes en camps com l’ecologia, medicina, geografia, entre d’altres.

Veus ignorades: representacions socials, subjectivitat i resiliència en persones grans amb pèrdua d’autonomia funcional

Els processos per a l’aprovació i la implementació de la Llei per a l’Autonomia personal i l’Atenció a les Persones en situació de Dependència (LAPAD) han donat lloc a un intens debat polític i social que, coincidint també amb les millores en la provisió de serveis i els avenços mèdics, ha contribuït a un procés de classificació i d’etiquetatge basats en els dèficits de les persones que es troben en aquestes circumstàncies. Aquesta visió anul·la el subjecte i la seva experiència singular i condiciona l’abordatge dels models d’atenció i de cura. L’estudi pretén fer una aproximació a les persones grans amb pèrdua d’autonomia funcional, fent emergir les seves veus, que expressen com perceben, interpreten, afronten i es reajusten a la nova situació. Partint d’un enfocament constructivista, basat en la subjectivitat, es fa un recorregut sobre els models de la discapacitat que han reeixit en l’activitat científica dels darrers anys, els mecanismes de regulació de les pèrdues que defensen les teories del cicle vital i les aportacions que s’han fet sobre el model de la resiliència aplicat a les persones que envelleixen. El resultats de l’estudi mostren com les representacions i els significats que les persones grans atribueixen a la seva experiència s’inscriuen en les seves trajectòries vitals, donant un sentit únic i singular a la forma de viure i de respondre a la pèrdua d’autonomia funcional i les seves conseqüències. Aquelles que expressen una vivència d’integritat respecte de la vida viscuda, amb predomini d’afectes positius envers un mateix i els altres, que conserven l’esperança i el desig de continuar vivint, s’ajusten a les pèrdues de manera més satisfactòria que aquelles que expressen desconfiança i una certa amargor respecte de la pròpia vida. D’això se’n deriva que els espais d’escolta i d’acompanyament poden ser un recurs vàlid i necessari en el qual, a través de la paraula i el testimoni narrat, el subjecte pugui repensar i resignificar les seves experiències.

Monitoring natural hazards

Few subjects have caught the attention of the entire world as much as those dealing with natural hazards. The first decade of this new millennium provides a litany of tragic examples of various hazards that turned into disasters affecting millions of individuals around the globe. The human losses (some 225,000 people) associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the economic costs (approximately 200 billion USD) of the 2011 Tohoku Japan earthquake, tsunami and reactor event, and the collective social impacts of human tragedies experienced during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 all provide repetitive reminders that we humans are temporary guests occupying a very active and angry planet. Any examples may have been cited here to stress the point that natural events on Earth may, and often do, lead to disasters and catastrophes when humans place themselves into situations of high risk. Few subjects share the true interdisciplinary dependency that characterizes the field of natural hazards. From geology and geophysics to engineering and emergency response to social psychology and economics, the study of natural hazards draws input from an impressive suite of unique and previously independent specializations. Natural hazards provide a common platform to reduce disciplinary boundaries and facilitate a beneficial synergy in the provision of timely and useful information and action on this critical subject matter. As social norms change regarding the concept of acceptable risk and human migration leads to an explosion in the number of megacities, coastal over-crowding and unmanaged habitation in precarious environments such as mountainous slopes, the vulnerability of people and their susceptibility to natural hazards increases dramatically. Coupled with the concerns of changing climates, escalating recovery costs, a growing divergence between more developed and less developed countries, the subject of natural hazards remains on the forefront of issues that affect all people, nations, and environments all the time.This treatise provides a compendium of critical, timely and very detailed information and essential facts regarding the basic attributes of natural hazards and concomitant disasters. The Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards effectively captures and integrates contributions from an international portfolio of almost 300 specialists whose range of expertise addresses over 330 topics pertinent to the field of natural hazards. Disciplinary barriers are overcome in this comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. Clear illustrations and numerous color images enhance the primary aim to communicate and educate. The inclusion of a series of unique ?classic case study? events interspersed throughout the volume provides tangible examples linking concepts, issues, outcomes and solutions. These case studies illustrate different but notable recent, historic and prehistoric events that have shaped the world as we now know it. They provide excellent focal points linking the remaining terms in the volume to the primary field of study. This Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards will remain a standard reference of choice for many years.