A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Incorporating human-factors in car-following models : a review of recent developments and research needs

Over the past decades there has been a considerable development in the modeling of car-following (CF) behavior as a result of research undertaken by both traffic engineers and traffic psychologists. While traffic engineers seek to understand the behavior of a traffic stream, traffic psychologists seek to describe the human abilities and errors involved in the driving process. This paper provides a comprehensive review of these two research streams. It is necessary to consider human-factors in {CF} modeling for a more realistic representation of {CF} behavior in complex driving situations (for example, in traffic breakdowns, crash-prone situations, and adverse weather conditions) to improve traffic safety and to better understand widely-reported puzzling traffic flow phenomena, such as capacity drop, stop-and-go oscillations, and traffic hysteresis. While there are some excellent reviews of {CF} models available in the literature, none of these specifically focuses on the human factors in these models. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing the available literature with a specific focus on the latest advances in car-following models from both the engineering and human behavior points of view. In so doing, it analyses the benefits and limitations of various models and highlights future research needs in the area.

Theorizing the use of multiple conceptual models in combination

Conceptual modelling continues to be an important means for graphically capturing the requirements of an information system. Observations of modelling practice suggest that modellers often use multiple conceptual models in combination, because they articulate different aspects of real-world domains. Yet, the available empirical as well as theoretical research in this area has largely studied the use of single models, or single modelling grammars. We develop a Theory of Combined Ontological Coverage by extending an existing theory of ontological expressiveness of conceptual modelling grammars. Our new theory posits that multiple conceptual models are used to increase the maximum coverage of the real-world domain being modelled, whilst trying to minimize the ontological overlap between the models. We illustrate how the theory can be applied to analyse sets of conceptual models. We develop three propositions of the theory about evaluations of model combinations in terms of users’ selection, understandability and usefulness of conceptual models.

MIMO and SISO identification of radiation force terms for models of marine structures in waves

This paper presents a discussion on the use of MIMO and SISO techniques for identification of the radiation force terms in models for surface vessels. We compare and discuss two techniques recently proposed in literature for this application: time domain identification and frequency domain identification. We compare the methods in terms of estimates model order, accuracy of the fit, use of the available information, and ease of use and implementation.

Automated power semiconductor switching performance feature extraction from experimental double-pulse waveform data

Double-pulse tests are commonly used as a method for assessing the switching performance of power semiconductor switches in a clamped inductive switching application. Data generated from these tests are typically in the form of sampled waveform data captured using an oscilloscope. In cases where it is of interest to explore a multi-dimensional parameter space and corresponding result space it is necessary to reduce the data into key performance metrics via feature extraction. This paper presents techniques for the extraction of switching performance metrics from sampled double-pulse waveform data. The reported techniques are applied to experimental data from characterisation of a cascode gate drive circuit applied to power MOSFETs.

Principles of goal-directed spatial robot navigation in biomimetic models

Mobile robots and animals alike must effectively navigate their environments in order to achieve their goals. For animals goal-directed navigation facilitates finding food, seeking shelter or migration; similarly robots perform goal-directed navigation to find a charging station, get out of the rain or guide a person to a destination. This similarity in tasks extends to the environment as well; increasingly, mobile robots are operating in the same underwater, ground and aerial environments that animals do. Yet despite these similarities, goal-directed navigation research in robotics and biology has proceeded largely in parallel, linked only by a small amount of interdisciplinary research spanning both areas. Most state-of-the-art robotic navigation systems employ a range of sensors, world representations and navigation algorithms that seem far removed from what we know of how animals navigate; their navigation systems are shaped by key principles of navigation in ‘real-world’ environments including dealing with uncertainty in sensing, landmark observation and world modelling. By contrast, biomimetic animal navigation models produce plausible animal navigation behaviour in a range of laboratory experimental navigation paradigms, typically without addressing many of these robotic navigation principles. In this paper, we attempt to link robotics and biology by reviewing the current state of the art in conventional and biomimetic goal-directed navigation models, focusing on the key principles of goal-oriented robotic navigation and the extent to which these principles have been adapted by biomimetic navigation models and why.

Computation of Mathematical Models for Complex Industrial Processes

Designed for undergraduate and postgraduate students, academic researchers and industrial practitioners, this book provides comprehensive case studies on numerical computing of industrial processes and step-by-step procedures for conducting industrial computing. It assumes minimal knowledge in numerical computing and computer programming, making it easy to read, understand and follow. Topics discussed include fundamentals of industrial computing, finite difference methods, the Wavelet-Collocation Method, the Wavelet-Galerkin Method, High Resolution Methods, and comparative studies of various methods. These are discussed using examples of carefully selected models from real processes of industrial significance. The step-by-step procedures in all these case studies can be easily applied to other industrial processes without a need for major changes and thus provide readers with useful frameworks for the applications of engineering computing in fundamental research problems and practical development scenarios.

Improving treatment for obese women with early stage cancer of the uterus : rationale and design of the levonorgestrel intrauterine device ±Metformin ±weight loss in endometrial cancer (feMME) trial

Purpose Endometrial adenocarcinoma (EC) is the most common gynaecologic cancer. Up to 90% of EC patients are obese which poses a health threat to patients post-treatment. Standard treatment for EC includes hysterectomy, although this has significant side effects for obese women at high risk of surgical complications and for women of childbearing age. This trial investigates the effectiveness of non-surgical or conservative treatment options for obese women with early stage EC. The primary aim is to determine the efficacy of: levonorgestrel intrauterine device (LNG-IUD); with or without metformin (an antidiabetic drug); and with or without a weight loss intervention to achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) in EC at six months from study treatment initiation. The secondary aim is to enhance understanding of the molecular processes and to predict a treatment response by investigating EC biomarkers. Methods An open label, three-armed, randomised, phase-II, multi-centre trial of LNG-IUD ± metformin ± weight loss intervention. 165 participants from 28 centres are randomly assigned in a 3:3:5 ratio to the treatment arms. Clinical, quality of life and health behavioural data will be collected at baseline, six weeks, three and six months. EC biomarkers will be assessed at baseline, three and six months. Conclusions There is limited prospective evidence for conservative treatment for EC. Trial results could benefit patients and reduce health system costs through a reduction in hospitalisations and through lower incidence of adverse events currently observed with standard treatment.