Winter.

Forma parte de una serie, que introduce a los lectores de primaria en los cambios de las estaciones. Explica cuándo y cómo se produce el invierno en el Reino Unido, y sus efectos sobre el comportamiento de las personas, otros seres vivos y las celebraciones que se llevan a cabo durante esa temporada. Para que los niños se familiaricen y aprendan en la lectura de textos con temas de la vida real. Incluye un glosario.

Innovació i desestacionalització de la demanda hotelera en un districte turístic: el paper de les xarxes relacionals

La tesi es planteja en quina mesura l'estructura de la xarxa social existent en un districte turístic entre els diferents actors que la conformen, i la posició que aquests ocupen en la mateixa, afecta a la estacionalitat de la demanda hotelera del districte. S'assumeix que els fluxos d'informació i coneixement entre els actors del districte, i també entre aquests i d'altres actors externs determinaran la seva capacitat d'innovació, i per tant, la seva capacitat de creació de nous productes i ofertes turístiques capaces d'atraure turistes fora de la temporada alta. Així, es pretén analitzar si els hotels millor posicionats dins de l'estructura de relacions d'un districte turístic d'àmbit comarcal es corresponen amb els que presenten una millor estacionalitat en termes d'allargament de la temporada, de mesos d'obertura i de millora de l'ocupació en els dos darrers períodes. Addicionalment, s'analitza en quina mesura els segments de mercat turístic als que els hotels dirigeixen els seus esforços expliquen les diferencies d'estacionalitat entre ells.

Anàlisi de la capacitat de regeneració en estadis inicials del desenvolupament en diverses espècies mediterrànies del gènere Quercus

Aquest treball es centra en l'estudi de la regeneració vegetativa en els estadis inicials del desenvolupament de Quercus coccifera, Q. humilis, Q. ilex i Q. suber, analitzant la capacitat de rebrotada després de l'eliminació de la biomassa aèria. S'ha realitzat una descripció, a nivell histològic, de l'ontogènesi del nus cotiledonar des de l'embrió fins a la plàntula de mig any d'edat de Q. coccifera, Q. humilis i Q. ilex. Així mateix, s'ha analitzat el contingut de midó i de nitrogen a la primavera, l'estiu i l'hivern en diferents parts de les plàntules de les quatre espècies, avaluant, alhora, l'efecte de la tala. D'altra banda, també s'ha estudiat la biometria de les glans, la capacitat de germinació i el creixement de les plàntules de les quatre espècies de Quercus. A partir dels resultats s'ha comprovat que les glans de Q. suber, en general, són més grans, tant en diàmetre com en longitud, i tenen un pes superior, mentre que les de Q. ilex són més petites i pesen menys. En les quatre espècies estudiades, el pes de la llavor està determinat per la longitud i el diàmetre, si bé, també hi ha un cert efecte de l'espècie. Amb les dades obtingudes de les tres variables de la gla s'ha calculat una funció discriminant a partir de la qual es pot determinar, amb un alt grau d'encert, a quina espècie pertany una determinada gla coneixent la mida i el pes. En relació a la capacitat de germinació, en Q. coccifera i Q. ilex la germinació depèn del pes de la gla, mentre que en Q. humilis i Q. suber és independent. Així mateix, també s'ha comprovat que el pes de la llavor afecta positivament en el creixement de les plàntules de tres i sis mesos d'edat. Possiblement un major pes de la gla implica un contingut de substàncies de reserva més elevat, i per tant representa un major subministrament de nutrients cap a la planta, repercutint així en el seu creixement inicial. En plàntules de nou mesos d'edat ja no s'ha trobat relació entre el pes de la gla i el creixement de la planta, la qual cosa es podria explicar pel fet que les substàncies de reserva de la llavor s'han esgotat. Pel que fa al creixement de la plàntula, les plàntules de Q. ilex han tingut la major taxa de creixement per quasi totes les variables estudiades. En aquesta espècie, al principi de l'experiment la grandària de les plàntules ha estat baixa, però al final han crescut més que les de les altres espècies. Les plàntules de Q. coccifera han presentat la menor taxa. En les plàntules de les quatre espècies s'ha constatat, també, que la biomassa del sistema radicular és superior a la de l'aeri. Les plàntules de Q. coccifera i Q. humilis han tingut una relació BA/BR (biomassa aèria/biomassa radicular) més baixa que les de Q. ilex i Q. suber. En espècies mediterrànies s'ha relacionat sovint una baixa relació BA/BR com una adaptació a la sequera. No obstant això, Q. humilis és una espècie que viu en zones més humides que la resta d'espècies estudiades. En referència a la regeneració vegetativa, amb aquest estudi es demostra que les plàntules de les quatre espècies tenen una elevada capacitat d'emissió de rebrots, quan s'elimina la biomassa aèria per sobre la zona d'inserció dels cotilèdons. Tanmateix, el grau de supervivència difereix segons l'espècie i la intervenció. Així, per exemple, les plàntules de Q. ilex han presentat una major mortalitat tant en la primera com en la segona tala, mentre que en Q. humilis i Q. suber la supervivència de les plàntules ha disminuït després de talar dues vegades. En el cas de Q. coccifera el grau de supervivència és bastant similar tant en la primera com en la segona intervenció. La tala successiva afecta negativament al vigor dels rebrots en Q. coccifera, Q. humilis i Q. ilex. Ara bé, en el cas de Q. suber s'ha trobat que els rebrots emesos després de talar dues vegades han estat més grans que els obtinguts després d'una sola tala. Després de tallar la biomassa aèria per sobre la zona d'inserció dels cotilèdons, els rebrots s'originen a partir de les gemmes del nus cotiledonar. L'estudi de l'ontogènesi del nus cotiledonar ens ha permès de constatar que el patró de desenvolupament d'aquest en Q. coccifera, Q. humilis i Q. ilex és similar, però difereix del descrit per a Q. suber. En les tres primeres espècies el nus cotiledonar pràcticament no s'allarga i només es desenvolupen gemmes cotiledonars just en l'axil·la del pecíol cotiledonar. En aquest sentit, cal ressaltar que en el cas de Q. coccifera i Q. ilex les gemmes es formen després de germinar la gla, mentre que en Q. humilis i Q. suber són ja presents en l'embrió. Tal i com també s'ha descrit en Q. suber, en l'estadi de plàntula, en Q. coccifera, Q. humilis i Q. ilex a l'axil·la de la gemma cotiledonar proliferen noves gemmes, de tal manera que es formen plaques de gemmes. Les anàlisis del contingut de midó han permès de determinar que el sistema radicular de les plàntules de Q. coccifera, Q. humilis, Q. ilex i Q. suber conté aproximadament un 90% del midó de tota la planta. Concretament de les diferents fraccions del sistema radicular (nus cotiledonar, 11 pimers centímetres de l'arrel i resta de l'arrel) la major concentració de midó es troba ens els 11 primers cm de l'arrel, que en el cas de Q. suber correspon al nus cotiledonar. Quant a les estacions, a l'estiu la concentració de midó de la part aèria i radicular disminueix en Q. coccifera, Q. humilis i Q. ilex, si bé es recuperen a l'hivern. En canvi en el cas de Q. suber els nivells més baixos de midó s'han obtingut a l'hivern. La tala provoca una disminució dels nivells de midó, ja que una part d'aquest és mobilitzat per a la síntesi dels nous brots. En les quatre espècies la major proporció de midó mobilitzat és en els primers 11 cm de l'arrel, és a dir, el nus cotiledonar en el cas de Q. suber. Per tant, amb aquest estudi es reafirma que el nus cotiledonar de Q. suber és un lignotúber. Tanmateix, Q. coccifera, Q. humilis i Q. ilex no presenten cap lignotúber o estructura especialitzada en la rebrotada, si bé el fet de tenir gemmes i substàncies de reserva els confereix igualment una elevada capacitat per rebrotar. En relació al nitrogen, en les quatre espècies el sistema radicular presenta aproximadament el 70% del nitrogen total de la planta. A l'estiu, la concentració de nitrogen del sistema radicular de Q. humilis i Q. suber és més baixa que a l'hivern, mentre que en Q. coccifera i Q. ilex els valors són bastant similars en ambdues estacions. La tala no provoca una davallada dels nivells de midó, això possiblement es degui a que les plàntules van rebre continuament un aport de nitrogen a través de l'aigua de reg.

Improvement of strategies for the management of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora). Evaluation and optimization of physical and chemical control methods, and use of decision support systems

El foc bacterià és una malaltia que afecta a plantes de la família de la rosàcies, causada pel bacteri Erwinia amylovora. El seu rang d'hostes inclou arbres fruiters, com la perera, la pomera o el codonyer, i plantes ornamentals de gran interès comercial i econòmic. Actualment, la malaltia s'ha dispersat i es troba àmpliament distribuïda en totes les zones de clima temperat del món. A Espanya, on la malaltia no és endèmica, el foc bacterià es va detectar per primer cop al 1995 al nord del país (Euskadi) i posteriorment, han aparegut varis focus en altres localitzacions, que han estat convenientment eradicats. El control del foc bacterià, és molt poc efectiu en plantes afectades per la malaltia, de manera que es basa en mesures encaminades a evitar la dispersió del patogen, i la introducció de la malaltia en regions no endèmiques. En aquest treball, la termoteràpia ha estat avaluada com a mètode d'eradicació d'E. amylovora de material vegetal de propagació asimptomàtic. S'ha demostrat que la termoteràpia és un mètode viable d'eradicar E. amylovora de material de propagació. Gairebé totes les espècies i varietats de rosàcies mantingudes en condicions d'humitat sobrevivien 7 hores a 45 ºC i més de 3 hores a 50 ºC, mentre que més d'1 hora d'exposició a 50 ºC amb calor seca produïa danys en el material vegetal i reduïa la brotació. Tractaments de 60 min a 45 ºC o 30 min a 50 ºC van ser suficients per reduir la població epífita d'E. amylovora a nivells no detectables (5 x 102 ufc g-1 p.f.) en branques de perera. Els derivats dels fosfonats i el benzotiadiazol són efectius en el control del foc bacterià en perera i pomera, tant en condicions de laboratori, com d'hivernacle i camp. Els inductors de defensa de les plantes redueixen els nivells de malaltia fins al 40-60%. Els intervals de temps mínims per aconseguir el millor control de la malaltia van ser 5 dies pel fosetil-Al, i 7 dies per l'etefon i el benzotiadiazol, i les dosis òptimes pel fosetil-Al i el benzotiadiazol van ser 3.72 g HPO32- L-1 i 150 mg i.a. L-1, respectivament. Es millora l'eficàcia del fosetil-Al i del benzotiadiazol en el control del foc bacterià, quan es combinen amb els antibiòtics a la meitat de la dosi d'aquests últims. Tot i que l'estratègia de barrejar productes és més pràctica i fàcil de dur a terme a camp, que l'estratègia de combinar productes, el millor nivell de control de la malaltia s'aconsegueix amb l'estratègia de combinar productes. Es va analitzar a nivell histològic i ultrastructural l'efecte del benzotiadiazol i dels fosfonats en la interacció Erwinia amylovora-perera. Ni el benzotiadiazol, ni el fosetil-Al, ni l'etefon van induir canvis estructurals en els teixits de perera 7 dies després de la seva aplicació. No obstant, després de la inoculació d'E. amylovora es va observar en plantes tractades amb fosetil-Al i etefon una desorganització estructural cel·lular, mentre que en les plantes tractades amb benzotiadiazol aquestes alteracions tissulars van ser retardades. S'han avaluat dos models (Maryblyt, Cougarblight) en un camp a Espanya afectat per la malaltia, per determinar la precisió de les prediccions. Es van utilitzar dos models per elaborar el mapa de risc, el BRS-Powell combinat i el BIS95 modificat. Els resultats van mostrar dos zones amb elevat i baix risc de la malaltia. Maryblyt i Cougarblight són dos models de fàcil ús, tot i que la seva implementació en programes de maneig de la malaltia requereix que siguin avaluats i validats per un període de temps més llarg i en àrees on la malaltia hi estigui present.

Estágio no escalão de iniciados (sub-15) no clube atlético e cultural 2010-2011

RESUMO: O Clube Atlético e Cultural (C.A.C.), apesar de ser relativamente recente, é reconhecido como um Clube Desportivo de formação de atletas de referência na zona de Lisboa. O seu pico de reconhecimento e a sua maior “montra” de formação é sem dúvida o Torneio Internacional da Pontinha (escalão Sub-13), onde é palco de jogos durante 4 dias entre os maiores clubes nacionais, bem como, alguns clubes mundialmente conhecidos. Como prova desse facto, se analisarmos alguns jogadores de elite profissional, têm no seu percurso de formação o C.A.C. como instituição representada. O relatório que de seguida se apresenta, surge no âmbito do estágio de Mestrado em Treino Desportivo e pretende divulgar todas as decisões, acções e reflexões subjacentes ao Treino Desportivo de jovens jogadores. O contexto onde foi realizado foi na equipa de Iniciados “A” (Sub-15), que disputou o Campeonato da Divisão de Honra da Associação Futebol de Lisboa. O relatório encontra-se estruturado do geral para o particular, estando dividido em três tipos de planificação: (1) Planificação Conceptual – na qual abrange uma análise ao Clube em questão, o seu contexto, os seus recursos e os vários constrangimentos. Compreende ainda um estudo prévio de situações anteriores, leia-se, épocas anteriores, bem como, a formação da equipa e dos seus jogadores, em função dos objectivos traçados e assumidos no inicio da época desportiva. Integra também a preparação de todo o período Pré-Competitivo e o recurso a meios de observação e análise visando a melhoria de todo o processo de planeamento do treino. (2) Planificação Estratégica – Esta prevê todas as acções que dizem respeito ao Período Competitivo da equipa, como por exemplo a recolha de dados tanto da nossa equipa como dos adversários, a antecipação dos graus de dificuldade dos nossos adversários, o planeamento mais operacional (Microciclos) e a escolha de estratégias consoante os diferentes adversários e por fim, as reflexões necessárias entre os vários intervenientes no processo. (3) Planificação Táctica – Por fim este tipo de planificação abarca todas as acções, decisões e reacções nos momentos que antecedem o jogo, no momento em que este decorre e ainda após este terminar. Em suma, o relatório pretende expor toda a preparação de uma equipa ao longo de uma época desportiva, visto de uma perspectiva das funções de um treinador principal. ABSTRACT: The Clube Atlético e Cultural (C.A.C.), although relatively recent, is recognized as a reference club in youths training in the Lisbon area. The peak recognition and more “showcase” training ins undoubtedly the Torneio Internacional da Pontinha (Under-13), which is host to games during four days among the biggest national clubs, as well as some world-renowned clubs. As proof thereof, if we look at some elite professional players, have in their educational path C.A.C. represented as an institution. The report that presents itself, appears in the stage of Master of Sports Training and intends to disclose all the decisions, actions and thoughts behind the Sports Training of young players. The report is structured from general to particular, being divided into three types of planning: (1) Conceptual Planning - which includes an analysis on the club in question, its context, its resources and various constraints. It also includes a previous study of past situations like earlier seasons, as well as the formation of the team and its players, according to the objectives and commitments outlined in the beginning of the season. Also includes the preparation of all pre-competition period and the use of means of observation and analysis aimed at improving the entire process of planning the training. (2) Strategic Planning - This provides all the activities that concern the competitive period of the team, such as collecting information both from our team as well as opponents, anticipating the degree of difficulty of our adversaries, the more operational planning (microcycles) and the choice of strategies depending on different opponents and finally the necessary reflections between the various actors in the process. (3) Tactical Planning - Finally this type of planning includes all actions, decisions and reactions in the moments before, during and even after the game. To resume, the report seeks to expose all the preparation of the team throughout a sports season, by the perspective of the functions of a head coach.

Population Assessment of an Endangered Shorebird: the Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in Eastern Canada

Small, at-risk populations are those for which accurate demographic information is most crucial to conservation and recovery, but also where data collection is constrained by logistical challenges and small sample sizes. Migratory animals in particular may experience a wide range of threats to survival and reproduction throughout each annual cycle, and identification of life stages most critical to persistence may be especially difficult for these populations. The endangered eastern Canadian breeding population of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) was estimated at only 444 adults in 2005, and extensive effort has been invested in conservation activities, reproductive monitoring, and marking of individual birds, providing a comprehensive data set on population dynamics since 1998. We used these data to build a matrix projection model for two Piping Plover population segments that nest in eastern Canada in order to estimate both deterministic and stochastic rates of population growth (λd and λs, respectively). Annual population censuses suggested moderate growth in abundance between 1998–2003, but vital rate estimates indicated that this temporary growth may be replaced by declines in the long term, both in southern Nova Scotia (λd = 1.0043, λs = 0.9263) and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (λd = 0.9651, λs = 0.8214). Nonetheless, confidence intervals on λ estimates were relatively wide, highlighting remaining uncertainty in future population trajectories. Differences in projected growth between regions appear to be driven by low estimated juvenile post-fledging survival in the Gulf, but threats to juveniles of both population segments following departure from nesting beaches remain unidentified. Similarly, λ in both population segments was particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival as expected for most migratory birds, but very little is understood about the threats to Piping Plover survival during migration and overwintering. Consequently, we suggest that future recovery efforts for these and other vulnerable migrants should quantify and manage the largely unknown sources of both adult and juvenile mortality during non-breeding seasons while maintaining current levels of nesting habitat protection.

Lesser Scaup Population Dynamics: What Can Be Learned from Available Data?

Populations of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) have declined markedly in North America since the early 1980s. When considering alternatives for achieving population recovery, it would be useful to understand how the rate of population growth is functionally related to the underlying vital rates and which vital rates affect population growth rate the most if changed (which need not be those that influenced historical population declines). To establish a more quantitative basis for learning about life history and population dynamics of Lesser Scaup, we summarized published and unpublished estimates of vital rates recorded between 1934 and 2005, and developed matrix life-cycle models with these data for females breeding in the boreal forest, prairie-parklands, and both regions combined. We then used perturbation analysis to evaluate the effect of changes in a variety of vital-rate statistics on finite population growth rate and abundance. Similar to Greater Scaup (Aythya marila), our modeled population growth rate for Lesser Scaup was most sensitive to unit and proportional change in adult female survival during the breeding and non-breeding seasons, but much less so to changes in fecundity parameters. Interestingly, population growth rate was also highly sensitive to unit and proportional changes in the mean of nesting success, duckling survival, and juvenile survival. Given the small samples of data for key aspects of the Lesser Scaup life cycle, we recommend additional research on vital rates that demonstrate a strong effect on population growth and size (e.g., adult survival probabilities). Our life-cycle models should be tested and regularly updated in the future to simultaneously guide science and management of Lesser Scaup populations in an adaptive context.

Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i) non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii) non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii) broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv) changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1) more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2) an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3) the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

Numerical Response of Breeding Birds Following Experimental Selection Harvesting in Northern Hardwood Forests

Silvicultural treatments have been shown to alter the composition of species assemblages in numerous taxa. However, the intensity and persistence of these effects have rarely been documented. We used a before-after, control-impact (BACI) paired design, i.e., five pairs of 25-ha study plots, 1-control and 1-treated plot, to quantify changes in the density of eight forest bird species in response to selection harvesting over six breeding seasons, one year pre- and five years postharvest. Focal species included mature forest associates, i.e., Northern Parula (Setophaga americana) and Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens), forest generalists, i.e., Yellow-bellied Sapsucker (Sphyrapicus varius) and Swainson’s Thrush (Catharus ustulatus), early-seral specialists, i.e., Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) and Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica), species associated with shrubby forest gaps, i.e., Black-throated Blue Warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), and mid-seral species, i.e., American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). As predicted, we found a negative numerical response to the treatment in the Black-throated Green Warbler, no treatment effect in the Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, and a positive treatment effect in early-seral specialists. We only detected a year effect in the Northern Parula and the American Redstart. There was evidence for a positive treatment effect on the Swainson’s Thrush when the regeneration started to reach the pole stage, i.e., fifth year postharvest. These findings suggest that selection harvesting has the potential to maintain diverse avian assemblages while allowing sustainable management of timber supply, but future studies should determine whether mature-forest associates can sustain second- and third-entry selection harvest treatments.

Predicting origins of passerines migrating through Canadian migration monitoring stations using stable-hydrogen isotope analyses of feathers: a new tool for bird conservation

The Canadian Migration Monitoring Network (CMMN) consists of standardized observation and migration count stations located largely along Canada’s southern border. A major purpose of CMMN is to detect population trends of migratory passerines that breed primarily in the boreal forest and are otherwise poorly monitored by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). A primary limitation of this approach to monitoring is that it is currently not clear which geographic regions of the boreal forest are represented by the trends generated for each bird species at each station or group of stations. Such information on “catchment areas” for CMMN will greatly enhance their value in contributing to understanding causes of population trends, as well as facilitating joint trend analysis for stations with similar catchments. It is now well established that naturally occurring concentrations of deuterium in feathers grown in North America can provide information on their approximate geographic origins, especially latitude. We used stable hydrogen isotope analyses of feathers (δ²Hf) from 15 species intercepted at 22 CMMN stations to assign approximate origins to populations moving through stations or groups of stations. We further constrained the potential catchment areas using prior information on potential longitudinal origins based upon bird migration trajectories predicted from band recovery data and known breeding distributions. We detected several cases of differences in catchment area of species passing through sites, and between seasons within species. We discuss the importance of our findings, and future directions for using this approach to assist conservation of migratory birds at continental scales.

Bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) population increases in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland: evidence for habitat saturation?

Across North America, Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations appear to be recovering following bans of DDT. A limited number of studies from across North America have recorded a surplus of nonbreeding adult Bald Eagles in dense populations when optimal habitat and food become limited. Placentia Bay, Newfoundland is one of these. The area has one of the highest densities of Bald Eagles in eastern North America, and has recently experienced an increase in the proportion of nonbreeding adults within the population. We tested whether the observed Bald Eagle population trends in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland during the breeding seasons 1990-2009 are due to habitat saturation. We found no significant differences in habitat or food resource characteristics between occupied territories and pseudo-absence data or between nest sites with high vs. low nest activity/occupancy rates. Therefore there is no evidence for habitat saturation for Bald Eagles in Placentia Bay and alternative hypotheses for the high proportion of nonbreeding adults should be considered. The Newfoundland population provides an interesting case for examination because it did not historically appear to be affected by pollution. An understanding of Bald Eagle population dynamics in a relatively pristine area with a high density can be informative for restoration and conservation of Bald Eagle populations elsewhere.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

Evaluation of reanalysis rainfall estimates over Ethiopia

There is a pressing need for good rainfall data for the African continent both for humanitarian and climatological purposes. Given the sparseness of ground-based observations, one source of rainfall information is Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs. The aim of this article is to investigate the quality of two NWP products using Ethiopia as a test case. The two products evaluated are the ERA-40 and NCEP reanalysis rainfall products. Spatial, seasonal and interannual variability of rainfall have been evaluated for Kiremt (JJAS) and Belg (FMAM) seasons at a spatial scale that reflects the local variability of the rainfall climate using a method which makes optimum use of sparse gauge validation data. We found that the spatial pattern of the rainfall climatology is captured well by both models especially for the main rainy season Kiremt. However, both models tend to overestimate the mean rainfall in the northwest, west and central regions but underestimate in the south and east. The overestimation is greater for NCEP in Belg season and greater for ERA-40 in Kiremt Season. ERA-40 captures the annual cycle over most of the country better than NCEP, but strongly exaggerates the Kiremt peak in the northwest and west. The overestimation in Kiremt appears to have been reduced since the assimilation of satellite data increased around 1990. For both models the interannual variability is less well captured than the spatial and seasonal variability. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Seasonal variations of the physical and optical characteristics of Saharan Dust: results from the Dust outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) experiment

North African dust is important for climate through its direct radiative effect on solar and terrestrial radiation and its role in the biogeochemical system. The Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean project (DODO) aimed to characterize the physical and optical properties of airborne North African dust in two seasons and to use these observations to constrain model simulations, with the ultimate aim of being able to quantify the deposition of iron to the North Atlantic Ocean. The in situ properties of dust from airborne campaigns measured during February and August 2006, based at Dakar, Senegal, are presented here. Average values of the single scattering albedo (0.99, 0.98), mass specific extinction (0.85 m^2 g^-1 , 1.14 m^2 g^-1 ), asymmetry parameter (0.68, 0.68), and refractive index (1.53--0.0005i,1.53--0.0014i) for the accumulation mode were found to differ by varying degrees between the dry and wet season, respectively. It is hypothesized that these differences are due to different source regions and transport processes which also differ between the DODO campaigns. Elemental ratios of Ca/Al were found to differ between the dry and wet season (1.1 and 0.5, respectively). Differences in vertical profiles are found between seasons and between land and ocean locations and reflect the different dynamics of the seasons. Using measurements of the coarse mode size distribution and illustrative Mie calculations, the optical properties are found to be very sensitive to the presence and amount of coarse mode of mineral dust, and the importance of accurate measurements of the coarse mode of dust is highlighted.