Does consumption-wealth ratio signal stock returns? VECM results for Germany

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption−wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two−stage method. In this paper, performance of the VECMs and the two−stage method are compared in both German and U.S. data. It is found that the VECMs are more suitable to study the effect of cay on stock returns than the two−stage method. Using the Conditional−Subset VECM, cay signals real stock returns and excess returns in both data sets significantly. The estimated coefficient on cay for stock returns turns out to be two times greater in U.S. data than in German data. When the two−stage method is used, cay has no significant effect on German stock returns. Besides, it is also found that cay signals German wealth growth and U.S. income growth significantly.

Zonal-mean dynamics of extended recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings

The recovery of the Arctic polar vortex following stratospheric sudden warmings is found to take upward of 3 months in a particular subset of cases, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. The anomalous zonal-mean circulation above the pole during this recovery is characterized by a persistently warm lower stratosphere, and above this a cold midstratosphere and anomalously high stratopause, which descends as the event unfolds. Composites of these events in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model show the persistence of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is a result of strongly suppressed wave driving and weak radiative cooling at these heights. The upper-stratospheric and lower-mesospheric anomalies are driven immediately following the warming by anomalous planetary-scale eddies, following which, anomalous parameterized nonorographic and orographic gravity waves play an important role. These details are found to be robust for PJO events (as opposed to sudden warmings in general) in that many details of individual PJO events match the composite mean. Azonal-mean quasigeostrophic model on the sphere is shown to reproduce the response to the thermal and mechanical forcings produced during a PJO event. The former is well approximated by Newtonian cooling. The response can thus be considered as a transient approach to the steady-state, downward control limit. In this context, the time scale of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is determined by the transient, radiative response to the extended absence of wave driving. The extent to which the dynamics of the wave-driven descent of the stratopause can be considered analogous to the descending phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is also discussed.

Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and "best practice" for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

A fast two-grid and finite section method for a class of integral equations on the real line with application to an acoustic scattering problem in the half-plane

We consider the numerical treatment of second kind integral equations on the real line of the form ∅(s) = ∫_(-∞)^(+∞)▒〖κ(s-t)z(t)ϕ(t)dt,s=R〗 (abbreviated ϕ= ψ+K_z ϕ) in which K ϵ L_1 (R), z ϵ L_∞ (R) and ψ ϵ BC(R), the space of bounded continuous functions on R, are assumed known and ϕ ϵ BC(R) is to be determined. We first derive sharp error estimates for the finite section approximation (reducing the range of integration to [-A, A]) via bounds on (1-K_z )^(-1)as an operator on spaces of weighted continuous functions. Numerical solution by a simple discrete collocation method on a uniform grid on R is then analysed: in the case when z is compactly supported this leads to a coefficient matrix which allows a rapid matrix-vector multiply via the FFT. To utilise this possibility we propose a modified two-grid iteration, a feature of which is that the coarse grid matrix is approximated by a banded matrix, and analyse convergence and computational cost. In cases where z is not compactly supported a combined finite section and two-grid algorithm can be applied and we extend the analysis to this case. As an application we consider acoustic scattering in the half-plane with a Robin or impedance boundary condition which we formulate as a boundary integral equation of the class studied. Our final result is that if z (related to the boundary impedance in the application) takes values in an appropriate compact subset Q of the complex plane, then the difference between ϕ(s)and its finite section approximation computed numerically using the iterative scheme proposed is ≤C_1 [kh log⁡〖(1⁄kh)+(1-Θ)^((-1)⁄2) (kA)^((-1)⁄2) 〗 ] in the interval [-ΘA,ΘA](Θ<1) for kh sufficiently small, where k is the wavenumber and h the grid spacing. Moreover this numerical approximation can be computed in ≤C_2 N log⁡N operations, where N = 2A/h is the number of degrees of freedom. The values of the constants C1 and C2 depend only on the set Q and not on the wavenumber k or the support of z.

On the solvability of a class of second kind integral equations on unbounded domains

We consider integral equations of the form ψ(x) = φ(x) + ∫Ωk(x, y)z(y)ψ(y) dy(in operator form ψ = φ + Kzψ), where Ω is some subset ofRn(n ≥ 1). The functionsk,z, and φ are assumed known, withz ∈ L∞(Ω) and φ ∈ Y, the space of bounded continuous functions on Ω. The function ψ ∈ Yis to be determined. The class of domains Ω and kernelskconsidered includes the case Ω = Rnandk(x, y) = κ(x − y) with κ ∈ L1(Rn), in which case, ifzis the characteristic function of some setG, the integral equation is one of Wiener–Hopf type. The main theorems, proved using arguments derived from collectively compact operator theory, are conditions on a setW ⊂ L∞(Ω) which ensure that ifI − Kzis injective for allz ∈ WthenI − Kzis also surjective and, moreover, the inverse operators (I − Kz)−1onYare bounded uniformly inz. These general theorems are used to recover classical results on Wiener–Hopf integral operators of21and19, and generalisations of these results, and are applied to analyse the Lippmann–Schwinger integral equation.

Asymptotic behavior at infinity of solutions of multidimensional second kind integral equations

We consider second kind integral equations of the form x(s) - (abbreviated x - K x = y ), in which Ω is some unbounded subset of Rn. Let Xp denote the weighted space of functions x continuous on Ω and satisfying x (s) = O(|s|-p ),s → ∞We show that if the kernel k(s,t) decays like |s — t|-q as |s — t| → ∞ for some sufficiently large q (and some other mild conditions on k are satisfied), then K ∈ B(XP) (the set of bounded linear operators on Xp), for 0 ≤ p ≤ q. If also (I - K)-1 ∈ B(X0) then (I - K)-1 ∈ B(XP) for 0 < p < q, and (I- K)-1∈ B(Xq) if further conditions on k hold. Thus, if k(s, t) = O(|s — t|-q). |s — t| → ∞, and y(s)=O(|s|-p), s → ∞, the asymptotic behaviour of the solution x may be estimated as x (s) = O(|s|-r), |s| → ∞, r := min(p, q). The case when k(s,t) = к(s — t), so that the equation is of Wiener-Hopf type, receives especial attention. Conditions, in terms of the symbol of I — K, for I — K to be invertible or Fredholm on Xp are established for certain cases (Ω a half-space or cone). A boundary integral equation, which models three-dimensional acoustic propaga-tion above flat ground, absorbing apart from an infinite rigid strip, illustrates the practical application and sharpness of the above results. This integral equation mod-els, in particular, road traffic noise propagation along an infinite road surface sur-rounded by absorbing ground. We prove that the sound propagating along the rigid road surface eventually decays with distance at the same rate as sound propagating above the absorbing ground.

Clitic-doubled left dislocation and focus fronting in L2 Spanish: a case of successful acquisition at the syntax-discourse interface

This experimental study tests the Interface Hypothesis by looking into processes at the syntax– discourse interface, teasing apart acquisition of syntactic, semantic and discourse knowledge. Adopting López’s (2009) pragmatic features [±a(naphor)] and [±c(ontrast)], which in combination account for the constructions of dislocation and fronting, we tested clitic left dislocation and fronted focus in the comprehension of English native speakers learning Spanish. Furthermore, we tested knowledge of an additional semantic property: the relationship between the discourse anaphor and the antecedent in clitic left dislocation (CLLD). This relationship is free: it can be subset, superset, part/whole. Syntactic knowledge of clitics was a condition for inclusion in the main test. Our findings indicate that all learners are sensitive to the semantic constraints. While the near-native speakers display native-like discourse knowledge, the advanced speakers demonstrated some discourse knowledge, and intermediate learners did not display any discourse knowledge. The findings support as well as challenge the Interface Hypothesis.

The syntax-semantics of bare and definite plural subjects in the L2 Spanish of English natives

This study investigates the extent to which advanced native-English L2 learners of Spanish come to acquire restrictions on bare plural preverbal subjects in L2 Spanish (e.g. gatos “cats” vs. definite plurals such as los gatos “the cats”). It tests L2 knowledge of available semantic readings of bare plurals and definite plurals in Spanish, where [+specific] and [+generic] interpretations are syntactically represented differently from English. Assuming L1 transfer, and in view of a potential subset/superset relationship of the two grammars, the learning task in this domain is not a straightforward one. Target acquisition requires both grammatical expansion and retraction; Spanish definite plural subjects require the addition of an L1-unavailable [+generic] reading, while a loss of an L1-available [+generic] reading for preverbal subject bare plurals is required. The results and analysis show that advanced L2 learners of Spanish (English L1) can circumvent a superficial subset/superset learnability problem by means of feature resetting in line with the Nominal Mapping Parameter.

Gradient competence at the syntax-discourse interface

In this article, we present additional support of Duffield's (2003, 2005) distinction between Underlying Competence and Surface Competence. Duffield argues that a more fine-grained distinction between levels of competence and performance is warranted and necessary. While underlying competence is categorical, surface competence is more probabilistic and gradient, being sensitive to lexical and constructional contingencies, including the contextual appropriateness of a given construction. We examine a subset of results from a study comparing native and learner competence of properties at the syntax-discourse interface. Specifically, we look at the acceptability of Clitic Right Dislocation in native and L2 Spanish, in discourse-appropriate context. We argue that Duffield's distinction is a possible explanation of our results.

Poverty-of-the-stimulus and SLA epistemology: considering L2 knowledge of aspectual phrasal semantics

Coupling a review of previous studies on the acquisition of grammatical aspects undertaken from contrasting paradigmatic views of second language acquisition (SLA) with new experimental data from L2 Portuguese, the present study contributes to this specific literature as well as general debates in L2 epistemology. We tested 31 adult English learners of L2 Portuguese across three experiments, examining the extent to which they had acquired the syntax and (subtle) semantics of grammatical aspect. Demonstrating that many individuals acquired target knowledge of what we contend is a poverty-of-the-stimulus semantic entailment related to the checking of aspectual features encoded in Portuguese preterit and imperfect morphology, namely, a [±accidental] distinction that obtains in a restricted subset of contexts, we conclude that UG-based approaches to SLA are in a better position to tap and gauge underlying morphosyntactic competence, since based on independent theoretical linguistic descriptions, they make falsifiable predictions that are amenable to empirical scrutiny, seek to describe and explain beyond performance, and can account for L2 convergence on poverty-of-the-stimulus knowledge as well as L2 variability/optionality.

A comparative review of dimension reduction methods in approximate Bayesian computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods make use of comparisons between simulated and observed summary statistics to overcome the problem of computationally intractable likelihood functions. As the practical implementation of ABC requires computations based on vectors of summary statistics, rather than full data sets, a central question is how to derive low-dimensional summary statistics from the observed data with minimal loss of information. In this article we provide a comprehensive review and comparison of the performance of the principal methods of dimension reduction proposed in the ABC literature. The methods are split into three nonmutually exclusive classes consisting of best subset selection methods, projection techniques and regularization. In addition, we introduce two new methods of dimension reduction. The first is a best subset selection method based on Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and the second uses ridge regression as a regularization procedure. We illustrate the performance of these dimension reduction techniques through the analysis of three challenging models and data sets.

Ethylene and 1-methylcyclopropene differentially regulate gene expression during onion sprout suppression

Onion (Allium cepa) is regarded as a nonclimacteric vegetable. In onions, however, ethylene can suppress sprouting while the ethylene-binding inhibitor 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP) can also suppress sprout growth; yet, it is unknown how ethylene and 1-MCP elicit the same response. In this study, onions were treated with 10 mu L L(-1) ethylene or 1 mu L L(-1) 1-MCP individually or in combination for 24 h at 20 degrees C before or after curing (6 weeks) at 20 degrees C or 28 degrees C and then stored at 1 degrees C. Following curing, a subset of these same onions was stored separately under continuous air or ethylene (10 mu L L(-1)) at 1 degrees C. Onions treated with ethylene and 1-MCP in combination after curing for 24 h had reduced sprout growth as compared with the control 25 weeks after harvest. Sprout growth following storage beyond 25 weeks was only reduced through continuous ethylene treatment. This observation was supported by a higher proportion of down-regulated genes characterized as being involved in photosynthesis, measured using a newly developed onion microarray. Physiological and biochemical data suggested that ethylene was being perceived in the presence of 1-MCP, since sprout growth was reduced in onions treated with 1-MCP and ethylene applied in combination but not when applied individually. A cluster of probes representing transcripts up-regulated by 1-MCP alone but down-regulated by ethylene alone or in the presence of 1-MCP support this suggestion. Ethylene and 1-MCP both down-regulated a probe tentatively annotated as an ethylene receptor as well as ethylene-insensitive 3, suggesting that both treatments down-regulate the perception and signaling events of ethylene.

Genes driving potato tuber initiation and growth: identification based on transcriptional changes using the POCI array

The increasing amount of available expressed gene sequence data makes whole-transcriptome analysis of certain crop species possible. Potato currently has the second largest number of publicly available expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences among the Solanaceae. Most of these ESTs, plus other proprietary sequences, were combined and used to generate a unigene assembly. The set of 246,182 sequences produced 46,345 unigenes, which were used to design a 44K 60-mer oligo array (Potato Oligo Chip Initiative: POCI). In this study, we attempt to identify genes controlling and driving the process of tuber initiation and growth by implementing large-scale transcriptional changes using the newly developed POCI array. Major gene expression profiles could be identified exhibiting differential expression at key developmental stages. These profiles were associated with functional roles in cell division and growth. A subset of genes involved in the regulation of the cell cycle, based on their Gene Ontology classification, exhibit a clear transient upregulation at tuber onset indicating increased cell division during these stages. The POCI array allows the study of potato gene expression on a much broader level than previously possible and will greatly enhance analysis of transcriptional control mechanisms in a wide range of potato research areas. POCI sequence and annotation data are publicly available through the POCI database (http://pgrc.ipk-gatersleben.de/poci).

Geographical variation in total and inorganic arsenic content of polished (white) rice

An extensive data set of total arsenic analysis for 901 polished (white) grain samples, originating from 10 countries from 4 continents, was compiled. The samples represented the baseline (i.e., not specifically collected from arsenic contaminated areas), and all were for market sale in major conurbations. Median total arsenic contents of rice varied 7-fold, with Egypt (0.04 mg/kg) and India (0.07 mg/kg) having the lowest arsenic content while the U.S. (0.25 mg/kg) and France (0.28 mg/kg) had the highest content. Global distribution of total arsenic in rice was modeled by weighting each country’s arsenic distribution by that country’s contribution to global production. A subset of 63 samples from Bangladesh, China, India, Italy, and the U.S. was analyzed for arsenic species. The relationship between inorganic arsenic content versus total arsenic content significantly differed among countries, with Bangladesh and India having the steepest slope in linear regression, and the U.S. having the shallowest slope. Using country-specific rice consumption data, daily intake of inorganic arsenic was estimated and the associated internal cancer risk was calculated using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) cancer slope. Median excess internal cancer risks posed by inorganic arsenic ranged 30-fold for the 5 countries examined, being 0.7 per 10,000 for Italians to 22 per 10,000 for Bangladeshis, when a 60 kg person was considered.

Insights into the molecular architecture of a peptide nanotube using FTIR and solid-state NMR spectroscopic measurements on an aligned sample

The self-assembly of proteins and peptides into b-sheet-rich amyloid fibers is a process that has gained notoriety because of its association with human diseases and disorders. Spontaneous self-assembly of peptides into nonfibrillar supramolecular structures can also provide a versatile and convenient mechanism for the bottom-up design of biocompatible materials with functional properties favoring a wide range of practical applications.[1] One subset of these fascinating and potentially useful nanoscale constructions are the peptide nanotubes, elongated cylindrical structures with a hollow center bounded by a thin wall of peptide molecules.[2] A formidable challenge in optimizing and harnessing the properties of nanotube assemblies is to gain atomistic insight into their architecture, and to elucidate precisely how the tubular morphology is constructed from the peptide building blocks. Some of these fine details have been elucidated recently with the use of magic-angle-spinning (MAS) solidstate NMR (SSNMR) spectroscopy.[3] MAS SSNMR measurements of chemical shifts and through-space interatomic distances provide constraints on peptide conformation (e.g., b-strands and turns) and quaternary packing. We describe here a new application of a straightforward SSNMR technique which, when combined with FTIR spectroscopy, reports quantitatively on the orientation of the peptide molecules within the nanotube structure, thereby providing an additional structural constraint not accessible to MAS SSNMR.