Low-emission vehicle adoption in a UK local authority fleet:economic barriers and air quality benefits

Local air quality was one of the main stimulants for low carbon vehicle development during the 1990s. Issues of national fuel security and global air quality (climate change) have added pressure for their development, stimulating schemes to facilitate their deployment in the UK. In this case study, Coventry City Council aimed to adopt an in-house fleet of electric and hybrid-electric vehicles to replace business mileage paid for in employee's private vehicles. This study made comparisons between the proposed vehicle technologies, in terms of costs and air quality, over projected scenarios of typical use. The study found that under 2009 conditions, the electric and hybrid fleet could not compete on cost with the current business model because of untested assumptions, but certain emissions were significantly reduced >50%. Climate change gas emissions were most drastically reduced where electric vehicles were adopted because the electricity supply was generated by renewable energy sources. The study identified the key cost barriers and benefits to adoption of low-emission vehicles in current conditions in the Coventry fleet. Low-emission vehicles achieved significant air pollution-associated health cost and atmospheric emission reductions per vehicle, and widespread adoption in cities could deliver significant change. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Photocatalytic decomposition of organophosphonates and fluorophenols in irradiated titanium dioxide suspensions

Dimethyl methyl phosphonate (DMMP), diethyl methyl phosphonate (DEMP), and fluorophenols undergo rapid decomposition upon TiO$\sb2$ catalyzed photooxidation in air saturated aqueous solution. The degradation rates of DMMP were determined over a range of temperatures, under solar and artificial irradiation with and without simultaneous sonication. Solar illumination is effective for the degradation and the use of low energy of sonication increases the rate of mineralization. The surface area and the type of TiO$\sb2$ dramatically affect the photoactivity of the catalyst. A number of intermediate products are formed and ultimately oxidized to phosphate and carbon dioxide. Possible reaction mechanisms and pathways for DMMP and DEMP are proposed. The Langmuir-Hinshelwood kinetic parameters for the photocatalysis of fluorophenols suggest modestly different reactivity for each isomer. The adsorption constant is largest for the ortho isomer consistent with the adsorption onto TiO$\sb2$ through both hydroxyl and fluoride groups to form a chelated type structure. ^

Florida Bay: Water quality status and trends, historic and emerging algal bloom problems

Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary that while historically oligotrophic, has been subjected to both natural and anthropogenic stressors, including hurricanes, coastal eutrophication and other impacts. These stressors have resulted in degradation of water quality in the past several decades, most evidenced by reoccurring blooms of the picocyanobacterium Synechococcus spp. Major nutrient inputs consist of freshwater flows to the eastern region from runoff and regulated canal releases, inputs from the Everglades to the central region via Taylor Slough, exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico, which include intermittent Shark River inputs to the western region, stormwater and wastewater from the Florida Keys, and atmospheric deposition. These nutrient inputs have resulted in a transition from strong phosphorus (P) limitation of phytoplankton in the eastern bay to nitrogen (N) limitation in the western bay. Large blooms of Synechococcus were most pronounced in the central bay region, in the area of transition between P and N limitation, in the mid-1990s. Although non-toxic, these blooms, which have continued intermittently through the early 2000s, resulted in significant sea-grass and benthic organism mortalities. A new suite of stressors in 2005, including the passages of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, additional canal releases, and the initiation of road construction to widen the main roadway leading to the Keys, were correlated with a large Synechococcus bloom in the previously clear, strongly P- limited, northeastern region of the bay. Sustained for 3 years, this bloom was accompanied by a shift from P limitation to N limitation during its course. Nutrient bioassay experiments suggest that this bloom persisted due to the ability of Synechococcus to access organic N and P sources, microbial and geochemical cycling of organic and inorganic nutrients in the water column and between the water column and sediments (both suspended particles and benthos), and decreased grazing by benthic fauna due to their die-off.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

First-year and second-year snow properties on sea ice in the Weddell Sea during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXII/2 (ISPOL) during the drift

Observations of snow properties, superimposed ice, and atmospheric heat fluxes have been performed on first-year and second-year sea ice in the western Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Snow in this region is particular as it does usually survive summer ablation. Measurements were performed during Ice Station Polarstern (ISPOL), a 5-week drift station of the German icebreaker RV Polarstern. Net heat flux to the snowpack was 8 W/m**2, causing only 0.1 to 0.2 m of thinning of both snow cover types, thinner first-year and thicker second-year snow. Snow thinning was dominated by compaction and evaporation, whereas melt was of minor importance and occurred only internally at or close to the surface. Characteristic differences between snow on first-year and second-year ice were found in snow thickness, temperature, and stratigraphy. Snow on second-year ice was thicker, colder, denser, and more layered than on first-year ice. Metamorphism and ablation, and thus mass balance, were similar between both regimes, because they depend more on surface heat fluxes and less on underground properties. Ice freeboard was mostly negative, but flooding occurred mainly on first-year ice. Snow and ice interface temperature did not reach the melting point during the observation period. Nevertheless, formation of discontinuous superimposed ice was observed. Color tracer experiments suggest considerable meltwater percolation within the snow, despite below-melting temperatures of lower layers. Strong meridional gradients of snow and sea-ice properties were found in this region. They suggest similar gradients in atmospheric and oceanographic conditions and implicate their importance for melt processes and the location of the summer ice edge.

(Table 1) Occurrence of selected planktonic foraminifers, other microfossils, and lithologic components at DSDP Hole 96-619

Site 619, located in the Pigmy Basin off the coast of Louisiana, penetrated the late Quaternary Ericson Zones X, Y, and Z. The penetrated section can be divided into four intervals. The lower interval (below 157 m sub-bottom) comprises 51 m of displaced sediments which probably originated from the Louisiana continental shelf. The upper three intervals (above 157 m) are dominated by pelagic/hemipelagic sedimentation associated with a closed basin. These are divided on the basis of planktonic foraminifers into Zones X, Y, and Z. These warm-cool water intervals are identified mainly by using the Globorotalia menardii complex (warm) and G. inflata (cool). The intervals correlate with published curves taken from piston core samples in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Estimation of sea surface temperatures and salinity of ODP Site 177-1089 (Appendix A)

ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermohaline (THC) circulation system, and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium, and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However, it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core, interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture, this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089, as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current, the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the delta13C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms, linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest, in analogy to modern oceanographic observations, this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline, induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation, which are in turn connected to the flow geometry, and intensity, of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the glacial MIS 10, due to the release into the South Atlantic of the heat previously accumulating in the subtropical and equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean. If our explanation for the MIS 10 anomaly in terms of an insolation variability switch is correct, we might expect that a future Agulhas SSST anomaly event will further delay the onset of next glacial age. In fact, the insolation forcing conditions for the Holocene (the current interglacial) are very similar to those present during MIS 11 (the interglacial preceding MIS 10), as both periods are characterized by a low insolation variability for the Agulhas Current source area. Natural climatic variability will force the Earth system in the same direction as the anthropogenic global warming trend, and will thus lead to even warmer than expected global temperatures in the near future.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of benthic foraminifera

Carbon isotopic measurements on the benthic foraminiferal genus Cibicidoides document that mean deep ocean delta13C values were 0.46 per mil lower during the last glacial maximum than during the Late Holocene. The geographic distribution of delta13C was altered by changes in the production rate of nutrient-depleted deep water in the North Atlantic. During the Late Holocene, North Atlantic Deep Water, with high delta13C values and low nutrient values, can be found throughout the Atlantic Ocean, and its effects can be traced into the southern ocean where it mixes with recirculated Pacific deep water. During the glaciation, decreased production of North Atlantic Deep Water allowed southern ocean deep water to penetrate farther into the North Atlantic and across low-latitude fracture zones into the eastern Atlantic. Mean southern ocean delta13C values during the glaciation are lower than both North Atlantic and Pacific delta13C values, suggesting that production of nutrient-depleted water occurred in both oceans during the glaciation. Enriched 13C values in shallow cores within the Atlantic Ocean indicate the existence of a nutrient-depleted water mass above 2000 m in this ocean.

Bridging the Scale Gap from Leaf to Canopy in Biosphere-Atmosphere Gas and Particle Exchanges

Terrestrial ecosystems, occupying more than 25% of the Earth's surface, can serve as

`biological valves' in regulating the anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric aerosol

particles and greenhouse gases (GHGs) as responses to their surrounding environments.

While the signicance of quantifying the exchange rates of GHGs and atmospheric

aerosol particles between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is

hardly questioned in many scientic elds, the progress in improving model predictability,

data interpretation or the combination of the two remains impeded by

the lack of precise framework elucidating their dynamic transport processes over a

wide range of spatiotemporal scales. The diculty in developing prognostic modeling

tools to quantify the source or sink strength of these atmospheric substances

can be further magnied by the fact that the climate system is also sensitive to the

feedback from terrestrial ecosystems forming the so-called `feedback cycle'. Hence,

the emergent need is to reduce uncertainties when assessing this complex and dynamic

feedback cycle that is necessary to support the decisions of mitigation and

adaptation policies associated with human activities (e.g., anthropogenic emission

controls and land use managements) under current and future climate regimes.

With the goal to improve the predictions for the biosphere-atmosphere exchange

of biologically active gases and atmospheric aerosol particles, the main focus of this

dissertation is on revising and up-scaling the biotic and abiotic transport processes

from leaf to canopy scales. The validity of previous modeling studies in determining

iv

the exchange rate of gases and particles is evaluated with detailed descriptions of their

limitations. Mechanistic-based modeling approaches along with empirical studies

across dierent scales are employed to rene the mathematical descriptions of surface

conductance responsible for gas and particle exchanges as commonly adopted by all

operational models. Specically, how variation in horizontal leaf area density within

the vegetated medium, leaf size and leaf microroughness impact the aerodynamic attributes

and thereby the ultrane particle collection eciency at the leaf/branch scale

is explored using wind tunnel experiments with interpretations by a porous media

model and a scaling analysis. A multi-layered and size-resolved second-order closure

model combined with particle

uxes and concentration measurements within and

above a forest is used to explore the particle transport processes within the canopy

sub-layer and the partitioning of particle deposition onto canopy medium and forest

oor. For gases, a modeling framework accounting for the leaf-level boundary layer

eects on the stomatal pathway for gas exchange is proposed and combined with sap

ux measurements in a wind tunnel to assess how leaf-level transpiration varies with

increasing wind speed. How exogenous environmental conditions and endogenous

soil-root-stem-leaf hydraulic and eco-physiological properties impact the above- and

below-ground water dynamics in the soil-plant system and shape plant responses

to droughts is assessed by a porous media model that accommodates the transient

water

ow within the plant vascular system and is coupled with the aforementioned

leaf-level gas exchange model and soil-root interaction model. It should be noted

that tackling all aspects of potential issues causing uncertainties in forecasting the

feedback cycle between terrestrial ecosystem and the climate is unrealistic in a single

dissertation but further research questions and opportunities based on the foundation

derived from this dissertation are also brie

y discussed.

Capacity Investment in Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

This dissertation studies capacity investments in energy sources, with a focus on renewable technologies, such as solar and wind energy. We develop analytical models to provide insights for policymakers and use real data from the state of Texas to corroborate our findings.

We first take a strategic perspective and focus on electricity pricing policies. Specifically, we investigate the capacity investments of a utility firm in renewable and conventional energy sources under flat and peak pricing policies. We consider generation patterns and intermittency of solar and wind energy in relation to the electricity demand throughout a day. We find that flat pricing leads to a higher investment level for solar energy and it can still lead to more investments in wind energy if considerable amount of wind energy is generated throughout the day.

In the second essay, we complement the first one by focusing on the problem of matching supply with demand in every operating period (e.g., every five minutes) from the perspective of a utility firm. We study the interaction between renewable and conventional sources with different levels of operational flexibility, i.e., the possibility

of quickly ramping energy output up or down. We show that operational flexibility determines these interactions: renewable and inflexible sources (e.g., nuclear energy) are substitutes, whereas renewable and flexible sources (e.g., natural gas) are complements.

In the final essay, rather than the capacity investments of the utility firms, we focus on the capacity investments of households in rooftop solar panels. We investigate whether or not these investments may cause a utility death spiral effect, which is a vicious circle of increased solar adoption and higher electricity prices. We observe that the current rate-of-return regulation may lead to a death spiral for utility firms. We show that one way to reverse the spiral effect is to allow the utility firms to maximize their profits by determining electricity prices.

(Table 1) Maximal daily erythemally effective UVB radiation and total ozone content at Vernadsky Station, Antarctica

One of the research programs carried out within the Czech-Ukrainian scientific co-operation is the monitoring of global solar and ultraviolet radiation at the Vernadsky Station (formerly the British Faraday Station), Antarctica. Radiation measurements have been made since 2002. Recently, a special attention is devoted to the measurements of the erythemally effective UVB radiation using a broadband Robertson Berger 501 UV-Biometer (Solar Light Co. Inc., USA). This paper brings some results from modelling the daily sums of erythemally effective UVB radiation intensity in relation to the total ozone content (TOC) in atmosphere and surface intensity of the global solar radiation. Differences between the satellite- and ground-based measurements of the TOC at the Vernadsky Station are taken into consideration. The modelled erythemally effective UVB radiation differed slightly depending on the seasons and sources of the TOC. The model relative prediction error for ground- and satellite-based measurements varied between 9.5% and 9.6% in the period of 2002-2003, while it ranged from 7.4% to 8.8% in the period of 2003-2004.

Meteorological observations and eddy covariance raw data from polygonal tundra in the Lena River Delta, Siberia

We present the first ecosystem-scale methane flux data from a northern Siberian tundra ecosystem covering the entire snow-free period from spring thaw until initial freeze-back. Eddy covariance measurements of methane emission were carried out from the beginning of June until the end of September in the southern central part of the Lena River Delta (72°22' N, 126°30' E). The study site is located in the zone of continuous permafrost and is characterized by Arctic continental climate with very low precipitation and a mean annual temperature of -14.7°C. We found relatively low fluxes of on average 18.7 mg/m**2/d, which we consider to be because of (1) extremely cold permafrost, (2) substrate limitation of the methanogenic archaea, and (3) a relatively high surface coverage of noninundated, moderately moist areas. Near-surface turbulence as measured by the eddy covariance system in 4 m above the ground surface was identified as the most important control on ecosystem-scale methane emission and explained about 60% of the variance in emissions, while soil temperature explained only 8%. In addition, atmospheric pressure was found to significantly improve an exponential model based on turbulence and soil temperature. Ebullition from waterlogged areas triggered by decreasing atmospheric pressure and near-surface turbulence is thought to be an important pathway that warrants more attention in future studies. The close coupling of methane fluxes and atmospheric parameters demonstrated here raises questions regarding the reliability of enclosure-based measurements, which inherently exclude these parameters.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment cores CH07-98-22 and KNR140-2-59

Western subtropical North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric circulations connect tropical and subpolar climates. Variations in these circulations can generate regional climate anomalies that are not reflected in Northern Hemisphere averages. Assessing the significance of anthropogenic climate change at regional scales requires proxy records that allow recent trends to be interpreted in the context of long-term regional variability. We present reconstructions of Gulf Stream sea surface temperature (SST) and hydrographic variability during the past two millennia based on the magnesium/calcium ratio and oxygen isotopic composition of planktic foraminifera preserved in two western subtropical North Atlantic sediment cores. Reconstructed SST suggests low-frequency variability of ~1°C during an interval that includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). A warm interval near 1250 A.D. is distinct from regional and hemispheric temperature, possibly reflecting regional variations in ocean-atmosphere heat flux associated with changes in atmospheric circulation (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation) or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Seawater d18O, which is marked by a fresher MCA and a more saline LIA, covaries with meridional migrations of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone. The northward advection of tropical salinity anomalies by mean surface currents provides a plausible mechanism linking Carolina Slope and tropical Atlantic hydrology.