The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

National and sub-national assessments of soil organic carbon stocks and changes: The GEFSOC modelling system

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in ecosystem function, determining soil fertility, water holding capacity and susceptibility to land degradation. In addition, SOC is related to atmospheric CO, levels with soils having the potential for C release or sequestration, depending on land use, land management and climate. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and other United Nations Conventions to Combat Desertification and on Biodiversity all recognize the importance of SOC and point to the need for quantification of SOC stocks and changes. An understanding of SOC stocks and changes at the national and regional scale is necessary to further our understanding of the global C cycle, to assess the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and to aid policy makers in making land use/management decisions. Several studies have considered SOC stocks at the plot scale, but these are site specific and of limited value in making inferences about larger areas. Some studies have used empirical methods to estimate SOC stocks and changes at the regional scale, but such studies are limited in their ability to project future changes, and most have been carried out using temperate data sets. The computational method outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been used to estimate SOC stock changes at the regional scale in several studies, including a recent study considering five contrasting eco regions. This 'one step' approach fails to account for the dynamic manner in which SOC changes are likely to occur following changes in land use and land management. A dynamic modelling approach allows estimates to be made in a manner that accounts for the underlying processes leading to SOC change. Ecosystem models, designed for site scale applications can be linked to spatial databases, giving spatially explicit results that allow geographic areas of change in SOC stocks to be identified. Some studies have used variations on this approach to estimate SOC stock changes at the sub-national and national scale for areas of the USA and Europe and at the watershed scale for areas of Mexico and Cuba. However, a need remained for a national and regional scale, spatially explicit system that is generically applicable and can be applied to as wide a range of soil types, climates and land uses as possible. The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System was developed in response to this need. The GEFSOC system allows estimates of SOC stocks and changes to be made for diverse conditions, providing essential information for countries wishing to take part in an emerging C market, and bringing us closer to an understanding of the future role of soils in the global C cycle. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prolonged neglect following unilateral disruption of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal system.

We investigated the potential function of the system formed by connections between the medial prefrontal cortex and the dorsomedial striatum in aspects of attentional function in the rat. It has been reported previously that disconnection of the same corticostriatal circuit produced marked deficits in performance of a serial, choice reaction-time task while sparing the acquisition of an appetitive Pavlovian approach behaviour in an autoshaping task (Christakou et al., 2001). Here, we hypothesized that unilateral disruption of the same circuit would lead to hemispatial inattention, contrasting with the global attention deficit following complete disconnection of the system. Combined unilateral lesions of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the medial caudate-putamen (mCPu) within the same hemisphere produced a severe and long-lasting contralesional neglect syndrome while sparing the acquisition of autoshaping. These results provide further evidence for the involvement of the medial prefrontal-dorsomedial striatal circuit in aspects of attentional function, as well as insight into the nature of neglect deficits following lesions at different levels within corticostriatal circuitry.

The CAFS system today and tomorrow

The CAFS search engine is a real machine in a virtual machine world; it is the hardware component of ICL's CAFS system. The paper is an introduction and prelude to the set of papers in this volume on CAFS applications. It defines The CAFS system and its context together with the function of its hardware and software components. It examines CAFS' role in the broad context of application development and information systems; it highlights some techniques and applications which exploit the CAFS system. Finally, it concludes with some suggestions for possible further developments. 'Search out thy wit for secret policies And we will make thee famous through the world' Henry VI, 1:3

Mapping and controlling molecular processes: The application of control theory and system identification algorithms to ASOPS and other fast pulse spectroscopies

Asynchronous Optical Sampling (ASOPS) [1,2] and frequency comb spectrometry [3] based on dual Ti:saphire resonators operated in a master/slave mode have the potential to improve signal to noise ratio in THz transient and IR sperctrometry. The multimode Brownian oscillator time-domain response function described by state-space models is a mathematically robust framework that can be used to describe the dispersive phenomena governed by Lorentzian, Debye and Drude responses. In addition, the optical properties of an arbitrary medium can be expressed as a linear combination of simple multimode Brownian oscillator functions. The suitability of a range of signal processing schemes adopted from the Systems Identification and Control Theory community for further processing the recorded THz transients in the time or frequency domain will be outlined [4,5]. Since a femtosecond duration pulse is capable of persistent excitation of the medium within which it propagates, such approach is perfectly justifiable. Several de-noising routines based on system identification will be shown. Furthermore, specifically developed apodization structures will be discussed. These are necessary because due to dispersion issues, the time-domain background and sample interferograms are non-symmetrical [6-8]. These procedures can lead to a more precise estimation of the complex insertion loss function. The algorithms are applicable to femtosecond spectroscopies across the EM spectrum. Finally, a methodology for femtosecond pulse shaping using genetic algorithms aiming to map and control molecular relaxation processes will be mentioned.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

In vitro microbial inoculum: A review of its function and properties

This review considers microbial inocula used in in vitro systems from the perspective of their ability to degrade or ferment a particular substrate, rather than the microbial species that it contains. By necessity, this required an examination of bacterial, protozoal and fungal populations of the rumen and hindgut with respect to factors influencing their activity. The potential to manipulate these populations through diet or sampling time are examined, as is inoculum preparation and level. The main alternatives to fresh rumen fluid (i.e., caecal digesta or faeces) are discussed with respect to end-point degradabilities and fermentation dynamics. Although the potential to use rumen contents obtained from donor animals at slaughter offers possibilities, the requirement to store it and its subsequent loss of activity are limitations. Statistical modelling of data, although still requiring a deal of developmental work, may offer an alternative approach. Finally, with respect to the range of in vitro methodologies and equipment employed, it is suggested that a degree of uniformity could be obtained through generation of a set of guidelines relating to the host animal, sampling technique and inoculum preparation. It was considered unlikely that any particular system would be accepted as the 'standard' procedure. However, before any protocol can be adopted, additional data are required (e.g., a method to assess inoculum 'quality' with respect to its fermentative and/or degradative activity), preparation/inoculation techniques need to be refined and a methodology to store inocula without loss of efficacy developed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DNA interaction and phosphotransfer of the C-4-dicarboxylate-responsive DcuS-DcuR two-component regulatory system from Escherichia coli

The DcuS-DcuR system of Escherichia coli is a two-component sensor-regulator that controls gene expression in response to external C-4-dicarboxylates and citrate. The DcuS protein is particularly interesting since it contains two PAS domains, namely a periplasmic C-4-dicarboxylate-sensing PAS domain (PASp) and a cytosolic PAS domain (PASc) of uncertain function. For a study of the role of the PASc domain, three different fragments of DcuS were overproduced and examined: they were PASc-kinase, PASc, and kinase. The two kinase-domain-containing fragments were autophosphorylated by [gamma-P-32]ATP. The rate was not affected by fumarate or succinate, supporting the role of the PASp domain in C-4-dicarboxylate sensing. Both of the phosphorylated DcuS constructs were able to rapidly pass their phosphoryl groups to DcuR, and after phosphorylation, DcuR dephosphorylated rapidly. No prosthetic group or significant quantity of metal was found associated with either of the PASc-containing proteins. The DNA-binding specificity of DcuR was studied by use of the pure protein. It was found to be converted from a monomer to a dimer upon acetylphosphate treatment, and native polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis suggested that it can oligomerize. DcuR specifically bound to the promoters of the three known DcuSR-regulated genes (dctA, dcuB, and frdA), with apparent K(D)s of 6 to 32 muM for untreated DcuR and less than or equal to1 to 2 muM for the acetylphosphate-treated form. The binding sites were located by DNase I footprinting, allowing a putative DcuR-binding motif [tandemly repeated (T/A)(A/T)(T/C)(A/T)AA sequences] to be identified. The DcuR-binding sites of the dcuB, dctA, and frdA genes were located 27, 94, and 86 bp, respectively, upstream of the corresponding +1 sites, and a new promoter was identified for dcuB that responds to DcuR.

A system for studying epithelial-stromal interactions reveals distinct inductive abilities of stromal cells from benign prostatic hyperplasia and prostate cancer

The development of normal and abnormal glandular structures in the prostate is controlled at the endocrine and paracrine levels by reciprocal interactions between epithelium and stroma. To study these processes it is useful to have an efficient method of tissue acquisition for reproducible isolation of cells from defined histologies. Here we assessed the utility of a standardized system for acquisition and growth of prostatic cells from different regions of the prostate with different pathologies, and we compared the abilities of stromal cells from normal peripheral zone (PZ-S), benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH-S), and cancer (CA-S) to induce the growth of a human prostatic epithelial cell line (BPH-1) in vivo. Using the tissue recombination method, we showed that grafting stromal cells (from any histology) alone, or BPH-1 epithelial cells alone produced no visible grafts. Recombining PZ-S with BPH-1 cells also produced no visible grafts (n = 15). Recombining BPH-S with BPH-1 cells generated small, well-organized and sharply demarcated grafts approximately 3-4 mm in diameter (n = 9), demonstrating a moderate inductive ability of BPH-S. Recombining CA-S with BPH-1 cells generated highly disorganized grafts that completely surrounded the host kidney and invaded into adjacent renal tissue, demonstrating induction of an aggressive phenotype. We conclude that acquisition of tissue from toluidine blue dye stained specimens is an efficient method to generate high quality epithelial and/or stromal cultures. Stromal cells derived by this method from areas of BPH and cancer induce epithelial cell growth in vivo which mimics the natural history of these diseases.

Tachykinins regulate the function of platelets

Evidence has been mounting for peripheral functions for tachykinins, a family of neuropeptides including substance P (SP), neurokinin A, and neurokinin B, which are recognized for their roles in the central and peripheral nervous system. The recent discovery of 4 new members of this family, the endokinins (EKA, B, C, and 13), which are distributed peripherally, adds support to the notion that tachykinins have physiologic/endocrine roles in the periphery. In the present study we report a fundamental new function for tachykinins in the regulation of platelet function. We show that SP stimulates platelet aggregation, and underlying this is the intracellular mobilization of calcium and degranulation. We demonstrate the presence of the tachykinin receptors NK1 and NK3 in platelets and present evidence for the involvement of NK1 in SP-mediated platelet aggregation. Platelets were found to contain SP-like immunoreactivity that is secreted upon activation implicating SP-like substances in the autocrine/paracrine regulation of these cells. Indeed, NK1-blocking antibodies inhibited aggregation in response to other agonists. Of particular note is the observation that EKA/B cross-react in the SP immunoassay and are also able to stimulate platelet activation. Together our data implicate tachykinins, specifically SP and EKA/B, in the regulation of platelet function. (C) 2004 by The American Society of Hematology.

Extraction behavior of the synergistic system 2,6-bis-(benzoxazolyl)-4-dodecyloxylpyridine and 2-bromodecanoic acid using Am and Eu as radioactive tracers

In this study, the extraction properties of a synergistic system consisting of 2,6-bis-(benzoxazolyl)-4-dodecyloxylpyridine (BODO) and 2-bromodecanoic acid (HA) in tert-butyl benzene (TBB) have been investigated as a function of ionic strength by varying the nitrate ion and perchlorate ion concentrations. The influence of the hydrogen ion concentration has also been investigated. Distribution ratios between 0.03-12 and 0.003-0.8 have been found for Am(III) and Eu(HI), respectively, but there were no attempts to maximize these values. It has been shown that the distribution ratios decrease with increasing amounts of ClO4-, NO3-, and H+. The mechanisms, however, by which the decrease occurs, are different. In the case of increasing perchlorate ion concentration, the decrease in extraction is linear in a log-log plot of the distribution ratio vs. the ionic strength, while in the nitrate case the complexation between nitrate and Am or Eu increases at high nitrate ion concentrations and thereby decreases the distribution ratio in a non-linearway. The decrease in extraction could be caused by changes in activity coefficients that can be explained with specific ion interaction theory (SIT); shielding of the metal ions, and by nitrate complexation with Am and Eu as competing mechanism at high ionic strengths. The separation factor between Am and Eu reaches a maximum at similar to1 M nitrate ion concentration. Thereafter the values decrease with increasing nitrate ion concentrations.

Commentary on 'Prebiotics, immune function, infection and inflammation: a review of the evidence'

There is a growing awareness that the gut microbiota and an appropriately functioning immune system play an important role in maintaining human health. Recent population statistics have highlighted some worrying trends, specifically that there is a growing burden of immunological disease in Western populations, that Western populations are ageing, and that obesity, with its strong inflammatory component, is reaching epidemic proportions.

Hypothesis about mechanisms through which nicotine might exert its effect on the interdependence of inflammation and gut barrier function in ulcerative colitis

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by impairment of the epithelial barrier and the formation of ulcer-type lesions, which result in local leaks and generalized alterations of mucosal tight junctions. Ultimately, this results in increased basal permeability. Although disruption of the epithelial barrier in the gut is a hallmark of inflammatory bowel disease and intestinal infections, it remains unclear whether barrier breakdown is an initiating event of UC or rather a consequence of an underlying inflammation, evidenced by increased production of proinflammatory cytokines. UC is less common in smokers, suggesting that the nicotine in cigarettes may ameliorate disease severity. The mechanism behind this therapeutic effect is still not fully understood, and indeed it remains unclear if nicotine is the true protective agent in cigarettes. Nicotine is metabolized in the body into a variety of metabolites and can also be degraded to form various breakdown products. It is possible these metabolites or degradation products may be the true protective or curative agents. A greater understanding of the pharmacodynamics and kinetics of nicotine in relation to the immune system and enhanced knowledge of out permeability defects in UC are required to establish the exact protective nature of nicotine and its metabolites in UC. This review suggests possible hypotheses for the protective mechanism of nicotine in UC, highlighting the relationship between gut permeability and inflammation, and indicates where in the pathogenesis of the disease nicotine may mediate its effect.

Modelling the interdependence between the stoichiometry of receptor oligomerization and ligand binding for a coexisting dimer/tetramer receptor system

Many G protein-coupled receptors have been shown to exist as oligomers, but the oligomerization state and the effects of this on receptor function are unclear. For some G protein-coupled receptors, in ligand binding assays, different radioligands provide different maximal binding capacities. Here we have developed mathematical models for co-expressed dimeric and tetrameric species of receptors. We have considered models where the dimers and tetramers are in equilibrium and where they do not interconvert and we have also considered the potential influence of the ligands on the degree of oligomerization. By analogy with agonist efficacy, we have considered ligands that promote, inhibit or have no effect on oligomerization. Cell surface receptor expression and the intrinsic capacity of receptors to oligomerize are quantitative parameters of the equations. The models can account for differences in the maximal binding capacities of radioligands in different preparations of receptors and provide a conceptual framework for simulation and data fitting in complex oligomeric receptor situations.

Performance of GPRS coding scheme detection under severe multipath and co-channel interference as a function of soft-bit width

The General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) has been developed for the mobile radio environment to allow the migration from the traditional circuit switched connection to a more efficient packet based communication link particularly for data transfer. GPRS requires the addition of not only the GPRS software protocol stack, but also more baseband functionality for the mobile as new coding schemes have be en defined, uplink status flag detection, multislot operation and dynamic coding scheme detect. This paper concentrates on evaluating the performance of the GPRS coding scheme detection methods in the presence of a multipath fading channel with a single co-channel interferer as a function of various soft-bit data widths. It has been found that compressing the soft-bit data widths from the output of the equalizer to save memory can influence the likelihood decision of the coding scheme detect function and hence contribute to the overall performance loss of the system. Coding scheme detection errors can therefore force the channel decoder to either select the incorrect decoding scheme or have no clear decision which coding scheme to use resulting in the decoded radio block failing the block check sequence and contribute to the block error rate. For correct performance simulation, the performance of the full coding scheme detection must be taken into account.