Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Circulating tumor cell detection in high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer

Purpose The detection of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) provides important prognostic information in men with metastatic prostate cancer. We aim to determine the rate of detection of CTCs in patients with high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer using the CellSearch® method. Method Samples of peripheral blood (7.5 mL) were drawn from 36 men with newly diagnosed high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer, prior to any initiation of therapy and analyzed for CTCs using the CellSearch® method. Results The median age was 70 years, median PSA was 14.1, and the median Gleason score was 9. The median 5-year risk of progression of disease using a validated nomogram was 39 %. Five out of 36 patients (14 %, 95 % CI 5–30 %) had CTCs detected in their circulation. Four patients had only 1 CTC per 7.5 mL of blood detected. One patient had 3 CTCs per 7.5 mL of blood detected, which included a circulating tumor microemboli. Both on univariate analysis and multivariate analysis, there were no correlations found between CTC positivity and the classic prognostic factors including PSA, Gleason score, T-stage and age. Conclusion This study demonstrates that patients with high-risk, non-metastatic prostate cancer present infrequently with small number of CTCs in peripheral blood. This finding is consistent with the limited literature available in this setting. Other CTC isolation and detection technologies with improved sensitivity and specificity may enable detection of CTCs with mesenchymal phenotypes, although none as yet have been validated for clinical use. Newer assays are emerging for detection of new putative biomarkers for prostate cancer. Correlation of disease control outcomes with CTC detection will be important.

Disaster management in Nepal: Media engagement in the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Nepal, as a consequence of its geographical location and changing climate, faces frequent threats of natural disasters. According to the World Bank’s 2005 Natural Disasters Hotspots Report, Nepal is ranked the 11th most vulnerable country to earthquake and 30th to flood risk. Geo-Hazards International (2011) has classified Kathmandu as one of the world’s most vulnerable cities to earthquakes. In the last four decades more than 32,000 people in Nepal have lost their lives and annual monetary loss is estimated at more than 15 million (US) dollars. This review identifies gaps in knowledge, and progress towards implementation of the Post Hyogo Framework of Action. Nepal has identified priority areas: community resilience, sustainable development and climate change induced disaster risk reduction. However, one gap between policy and action lies in the ability of Nepal to act effectively in accordance with an appropriate framework for media activities. Supporting media agencies include the Press Council, Federation of Nepalese Journalists, Nepal Television, Radio Nepal and Telecommunications Authority and community based organizations. The challenge lies in further strengthening traditional and new media to undertake systematic work supported by government bodies and the National Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC). Within this context, the ideal role for media is one that is proactive where journalists pay attention to a range of appropriate angles or frames when preparing and disseminating information. It is important to develop policy for effective information collection, sharing and dissemination in collaboration with Telecommunication, Media and Journalists. The aim of this paper is to describe the developments in disaster management in Nepal and their implications for media management. This study provides lessons for government, community and the media to help improve the framing of disaster messages. Significantly, the research highlights the prominence that should be given to flood, landslides, lightning and earthquakes.

Risk analysis of prostate cancer in PRACTICAL, a multinational consortium, using 25 known prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS).We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived agespecific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact:We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.

Study of miRNA polymorphisms and their potential association with breast cancer risk in Australian Caucasian populations

This project established a large and well characterised prospective breast cancer DNA biobank and used this biobank to conduct genetic studies in breast cancer. The thesis presented the results of these high-throughput genotyping studies in two separate Australian Caucasian case-control populations and identified association between three novel genetic variants in microRNA genes and breast cancer risk.

Phoenix activity: Regulatory challenges and the law

Remedying the mischief of phoenix activity is of practical importance. The benefits include continued confidence in our economy, law that inspires best practice among directors, and law that is articulated in a manner such that penalties act as a sufficient deterrent and the regulatory system is able to detect offenders and bring them to account. Any further reforms must accommodate and tolerate legal phoenix activity. Phoenix activity pushes tolerance of entrepreneurial activity to its absolute limits. The wisest approach would be to front end the reforms so as to alleviate the considerable detection and enforcement burden upon regulatory bodies. There is little doubt that breach of the existing law is difficult and expensive to detect; and this is a significant burden when regulators have shrinking budgets and are rapidly losing feet on the ground. This front end approach may need to include restrictions on access to limited liability. The more limited liability is misused, the stronger the argument to limit access to limited liability. This paper proposes that such an approach is a legitimate next step for a robust and mature capitalist economy.

Crash risk perception of sleepy driving and its comparisons with drink driving and speeding: Which behavior is perceived as the riskiest?

- Objective Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor, but may be under-recognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. - Methods In total, 300 Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants perception of crash risk was assessed for five different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, night-time) of driving. - Results The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior, but not as risky as high levels of speeding (p < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 am was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky due to time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk. - Conclusions The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community’s awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.

Spontaneous and episodic volunteers: The legislative, insurance and risk management framework

Baby Boomers are a generation of life long association joiners, but following generations prefer spontaneous and episodic volunteering. This trend is apparent not only during natural disasters, but in most other spheres of volunteering. Legal liability for such volunteers is a growing concern, which unresolved, may dampen civic participation. We critically examine the current treatment of these liabilities through legislation, insurance and risk management.

Identification of putative regulatory motifs in the upstream regions of co-expressed functional groups of genes in Plasmodium falciparum

Background: Regulation of gene expression in Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) remains poorly understood. While over half the genes are estimated to be regulated at the transcriptional level, few regulatory motifs and transcription regulators have been found. Results: The study seeks to identify putative regulatory motifs in the upstream regions of 13 functional groups of genes expressed in the intraerythrocytic developmental cycle of Pf. Three motif-discovery programs were used for the purpose, and motifs were searched for only on the gene coding strand. Four motifs – the 'G-rich', the 'C-rich', the 'TGTG' and the 'CACA' motifs – were identified, and zero to all four of these occur in the 13 sets of upstream regions. The 'CACA motif' was absent in functional groups expressed during the ring to early trophozoite transition. For functional groups expressed in each transition, the motifs tended to be similar. Upstream motifs in some functional groups showed 'positional conservation' by occurring at similar positions relative to the translational start site (TLS); this increases their significance as regulatory motifs. In the ribonucleotide synthesis, mitochondrial, proteasome and organellar translation machinery genes, G-rich, C-rich, CACA and TGTG motifs, respectively, occur with striking positional conservation. In the organellar translation machinery group, G-rich motifs occur close to the TLS. The same motifs were sometimes identified for multiple functional groups; differences in location and abundance of the motifs appear to ensure different modes of action. Conclusion: The identification of positionally conserved over-represented upstream motifs throws light on putative regulatory elements for transcription in Pf.

Antithrombin III associated with fibrinogen predicts the risk of cerebral ischemic stroke

Background and purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the feasibility of developing plasma predictive value biomarkers of cerebral ischemic stroke before imaging evidence is acquired. Methods: Blood samples were obtained from 198 patients who attended our neurology department as emergencies - with symptoms of vertigo, numbness, limb weakness, etc. - within 4.5 h of symptom onset, and before imaging evidence was obtained and medical treatment. After the final diagnosis was made by MRI/DWI/MRA or CTA in the following 24-72 h, the above cases were divided into two groups: stroke group and non-stroke group according to the imaging results. The levels of baseline plasma antithrombin III (AT-III), thrombin-antithrombin III (TAT), fibrinogen, D-dimer and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in the two groups were assayed. Results: The level of the baseline AT-III in the stroke group was 118.07 ± 26.22%, which was lower than that of the non-stroke group (283.83 ± 38.39%). The levels of TAT, fibrinogen, hsCRP were 7.24 ± 2.28 μg/L, 5.49 ± 0.98 g/L, and 2.17 ± 1.07 mg/L, respectively, which were higher than those of the non-stroke group (2.53 ± 1.23 μg/L, 3.35 ± 0.50 g/L, 1.82 ± 0.67 mg/L). All the P-values were less than 0.001. The D-dimer level was 322.57 ± 60.34 μg/L, which was slightly higher than that of the non-stroke group (305.76 ± 49.52 μg/L), but the P-value was 0.667. The sensitivities of AT-III, TAT, fibrinogen, D-dimer and hsCRP for predicting ischemic stroke tendency were 97.37%, 96.05%, 3.29%, 7.89%, but the specificity was 93.62%, 82.61%, 100% and 100%, respectively, and all the P-values were less than 0.001. High levels of D-dimer and hsCRP were mainly seen in the few cases with severe large-vessel infarction. Conclusions: Clinical manifestations of acute focal neurological deficits were associated with plasma AT-III and fibrinogen. These tests might help the risk assessment of acute cerebral ischemic stroke and/or TIA with infarction tendency in the superacute stage before positive imaging evidence is obtained.

Correlation of macrophage location and plaque stress distribution using USPIO-enhanced MRI in a patient with symptomatic severe carotid stenosis: A new insight into risk stratification

High resolution, USPIO-enhanced MR imaging can be used to identify inflamed atherosclerotic plaque. We report a case of a 79-year-old man with a symptomatic carotid stenosis of 82%. The plaque was retrieved for histology and finite element analysis (FEA) based on the preoperative MR imaging was used to predict maximal Von Mises stress on the plaque. Macrophage location correlated with maximal predicted stresses on the plaque. This supports the hypothesis that macrophages thin the fibrous cap at points of highest stress, leading to an increased risk of plaque rupture and subsequent stroke.

Predicting occupant risk indicators for frontal impacts with redirective crash cushions

Crash cushions are devices deployed on the road network in order to shield fixed roadside hazards and the non-crashworthy ends of road safety barriers. However crash cushions vary in terms of configuration and operation, meaning that different devices may also vary in terms of ability to mitigate occupant risk. In this study, data derived from crash testing of eleven redirective crash cushions is used as the base input to a numerical procedure for calculation of occupant risk indicators Occupant Impact Velocity (OIV), Occupant Ridedown Acceleration (ORA) and longitudinal Acceleration Severity Index (ASI) for a range of simulated impacting vehicles (mass 800 kg to 2,500 kg) impacting each crash cushion at a range of impact speeds (18 m/s to 32 m/s). The results may be interpreted as demonstrating firstly that enhanced knowledge of the performance of a device over a range of impact conditions, i.e., beyond the crash testing, may assist in determining the crash cushion most suited to a particular application; secondly that a more appropriate conformance test for occupant risk would be a frontal impact by a small (light) vehicle travelling parallel to and aligned with the centreline of the crash cushion; and thirdly that current documented numerical procedures for calculating occupant risk indicators may require review.

Process Analytical Technology Approach on Fluid Bed Granulation and Drying : Identifying Critical Relationships and Constructing the Design Space

Fluid bed granulation is a key pharmaceutical process which improves many of the powder properties for tablet compression. Dry mixing, wetting and drying phases are included in the fluid bed granulation process. Granules of high quality can be obtained by understanding and controlling the critical process parameters by timely measurements. Physical process measurements and particle size data of a fluid bed granulator that are analysed in an integrated manner are included in process analytical technologies (PAT). Recent regulatory guidelines strongly encourage the pharmaceutical industry to apply scientific and risk management approaches to the development of a product and its manufacturing process. The aim of this study was to utilise PAT tools to increase the process understanding of fluid bed granulation and drying. Inlet air humidity levels and granulation liquid feed affect powder moisture during fluid bed granulation. Moisture influences on many process, granule and tablet qualities. The approach in this thesis was to identify sources of variation that are mainly related to moisture. The aim was to determine correlations and relationships, and utilise the PAT and design space concepts for the fluid bed granulation and drying. Monitoring the material behaviour in a fluidised bed has traditionally relied on the observational ability and experience of an operator. There has been a lack of good criteria for characterising material behaviour during spraying and drying phases, even though the entire performance of a process and end product quality are dependent on it. The granules were produced in an instrumented bench-scale Glatt WSG5 fluid bed granulator. The effect of inlet air humidity and granulation liquid feed on the temperature measurements at different locations of a fluid bed granulator system were determined. This revealed dynamic changes in the measurements and enabled finding the most optimal sites for process control. The moisture originating from the granulation liquid and inlet air affected the temperature of the mass and pressure difference over granules. Moreover, the effects of inlet air humidity and granulation liquid feed rate on granule size were evaluated and compensatory techniques used to optimize particle size. Various end-point indication techniques of drying were compared. The ∆T method, which is based on thermodynamic principles, eliminated the effects of humidity variations and resulted in the most precise estimation of the drying end-point. The influence of fluidisation behaviour on drying end-point detection was determined. The feasibility of the ∆T method and thus the similarities of end-point moisture contents were found to be dependent on the variation in fluidisation between manufacturing batches. A novel parameter that describes behaviour of material in a fluid bed was developed. Flow rate of the process air and turbine fan speed were used to calculate this parameter and it was compared to the fluidisation behaviour and the particle size results. The design space process trajectories for smooth fluidisation based on the fluidisation parameters were determined. With this design space it is possible to avoid excessive fluidisation and improper fluidisation and bed collapse. Furthermore, various process phenomena and failure modes were observed with the in-line particle size analyser. Both rapid increase and a decrease in granule size could be monitored in a timely manner. The fluidisation parameter and the pressure difference over filters were also discovered to express particle size when the granules had been formed. The various physical parameters evaluated in this thesis give valuable information of fluid bed process performance and increase the process understanding.

Engaging at-risk vocational education students with mobile devices

The potential of using mobile devices to increase learner engagement within a small group of at-risk vocational education students was studied through a qualitative case study. It was found that the use of mobile devices could be a strategy educators may use to reduce the barriers these students often encounter within traditional classrooms. Notions of interactivity, ease of use, existing familiarity and fluency were found to be fundamental variables that were central to the group's use of mobile devices. The study provides direction for educators looking for innovative ways to engage students who struggle in a classroom situation.

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region.