Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Response evaluation in third- and fourth-line treatment of GIST: the role of PET

Background: Response evaluation in gastrointestinal stromal tumors is difficult. Computed tomography and size-based assessments have been found inadequate to draw prognostic conclusions in patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). Density criteria (CHOI) have recently been shown to better define prognostic subsets of patients evaluated with CT. Still, positron emission tomography (PET) might be better at identifying responders with good outcome early, as shown for first and recently second-line treatment in GIST (Prior et al.; J Clin Oncol 2009). We wanted to evaluate the role of PET in third- and fourth-line TKI treatment of GIST. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed patients with GIST who had received third- or fourth-line treatment with TKI and had undergone PET for response evaluation. Patient needed to have a baseline and at least one subsequent PET. Results of the first "early" PET after treatment start have been used throughout this analysis and EORTC PET Study Group criteria applied. Results: Twelve treatment courses were evaluable, seven with Nilotinib in third- and five with Sorafenib in fourth-line treatment, in 8 patients, median age 60 y (range 36−78 y), who had all failed prior Imatinib and Sunitinib treatment due to disease progession. Baseline and follow-up PET were performed within a median of 34 days (range 9−84 days). Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 262 days in patients responding to PET versus 76 days in patients with stable or progressing disease (p = 0.15). Conclusions: This small series suggests that PET retains its value for outcome prediction in third- and fourth-line TKI treatment of GIST. This could be of particular clinical value in these vulnerable patients with large tumour masses. Early PET may help in stopping ineffective, but toxic therapy and help switching to a more effective therapy. PET should be evaluated further in this patient population.

Substitution rates at neutral genes depend on population size under fluctuating demography and overlapping generations.

It is widely accepted that the rate of evolution (substitution rate) at neutral genes is unaffected by population size fluctuations. This result has implications for the analysis of genetic data in population genetics and phylogenetics, and provides, in particular, a justification for the concept of the molecular clock. Here, we show that the substitution rate at neutral genes does depend on population size fluctuations in the presence of overlapping generations. As both population size fluctuations and overlapping generations are expected to be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations, this observation may be relevant for understanding variation in substitution rates within and between lineages.

PHE-CRCE-010: Estimating Local Mortality Burdens associated with Particulate Air Pollution

The increase in mortality risk associated with long-term exposure to particulate air pollution is one of the most important, and best-characterised, effects of air pollution on health. This report presents estimates of the size of this effect on mortality in local authority areas in the UK, building upon the attributable fractions reported as an indicator in the public health outcomes framework for England. It discusses the concepts and assumptions underlying these calculations and gives information on how such estimates can be made. The estimates are expected to be useful to health and wellbeing boards when assessing local public health priorities, as well as to others working in the field of air quality and public health. The estimates of mortality burden are based on modelled annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in each local authority area originating from human activities. Local data on the adult population and adult mortality rates is also used. Central estimates of the fraction of mortality attributable to long-term exposure to current levels of anthropogenic (human-made) particulate air pollution range from around 2.5% in some local authorities in rural areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland and between 3 and 5% in Wales, to over 8% in some London boroughs. Because of uncertainty in the increase in mortality risk associated with ambient PM2.5, the actual burdens associated with these modelled concentrations could range from approximately one-sixth to about double these figures. Thus, current levels of particulate air pollution have a considerable impact on public health. Measures to reduce levels of particulate air pollution, or to reduce exposure of the population to such pollution, are regarded as an important public health initiative.

Real-time dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy for extended measurement range with enhanced axial resolution

We report on advanced dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy (DHM) methods, enabling single-acquisition real-time micron-range measurements while maintaining single-wavelength interferometric resolution in the nanometer regime. In top of the unique real-time capability of our technique, it is shown that axial resolution can be further increased compared to single-wavelength operation thanks to the uncorrelated nature of both recorded wavefronts. It is experimentally demonstrated that DHM topographic investigation within 3 decades measurement range can be achieved with our arrangement, opening new applications possibilities for this interferometric technique. ©2008 COPYRIGHT SPIE

What is a serving size: A guide for pre-schools

This guide offers practical help to all those providing food for pre-school age children. It is a pictorial manual giving real life serving sizes to guide care-givers, parents and guardians on suitable size servings. This booklet also provides sound advice on family-style eating habits, the introduction of new foods and the environment which nurtures healthy eating habits for life. Establishing good lifestyle habits, including positive attitudes and behaviours around food is one of the key cornerstones to shaping future health. This starts during the pre-school years when children grow rapidly and begin to learn about the environment around them. Providing an environment that supports healthy eating both at home and at school is important. It is well recognised that gauging portion sizes for young children can besomewhat difficult; they need to be adequate without being excessive.

Primary medical care in Irish prisons

An industrial dispute between prison doctors and the Irish Prison Service (IPS) took place in 2004. Part of the resolution of that dispute was that an independent review of prison medical and support services be carried out by a University Department of Primary Care. The review took place in 2008 and we report here on the principal findings of that review.   This study utilised a mixed methods approach. An independent expert medical evaluator (one of the authors, DT) inspected the medical facilities, equipment and relevant custodial areas in eleven of the fourteen prisons within the IPS. Semistructured interviews took place with personnel who had operational responsibility for delivery of prison medical care. Prison doctors completed a questionnaire to elicit issues such as allocation of clinician's time, nurse and administrative support and resources available.   There was wide variation in the standard of medical facilities and infrastructure provided across the IPS. The range of medical equipment available was generally below that of the equivalent general practice scheme in the community. There is inequality within the system with regard to the ratio of doctor-contracted time relative to the size of the prison population. There is limited administrative support, with the majority of prisons not having a medical secretary. There are few psychiatric or counselling sessions available.   People in prison have a wide range of medical care needs and there is evidence to suggest that these needs are being met inconsistently in Irish prisons.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

From genomes to vaccines via the proteome

An effective vaccine against schistosomiasis mansoni would be a valuable control tool and the high levels of protection elicited in rodents and primates by radiation-attenuated cercariae provide proof of principle. A major obstacle to vaccine development is the difficulty of identifying the antigens that mediate protection, not least because of the size of the genome at 280Mb DNA encoding 14,000 to 20,000 genes. The technologies collectively called proteomics, including 2D electrophoresis, liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry, now permit any protein to be identified provided there is extensive DNA data, and preferably a genome sequence. Applied to soluble (cytosolic) proteins from schistosomes, proteomics reveals the great similarity in composition between life cycle stages, with several WHO vaccine candidates amongst the most abundant constituents. The proteomic approach has been successfully applied to identify the secretions used by cercaria to penetrate host skin, the gut secretions of adult worms and the proteins exposed on the tegument surface. Soluble proteins can also be separated by 2D electrophoresis before western blotting to identify the full range of antigenic targets present in a parasite preparation. The next step is to discover which target proteins represent the weak points in the worm's defences.

Evaluation des modifications anatomiques et fonctionnelles de la macula après chirurgie des membranes néovasculaires rétrofovéolaires dans la dégénérescence maculaire liée à l'âge [Evaluation of functional and anatomical changes in the macula after surgery for retro-foveal neovascularization of membranes in age-related macular degeneration].

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the direct effect of surgical treatment of subfoveolar neovascular membranes in age related macular degeneration to macular functions. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirteen eyes of 13 patients were included in this study. Macular function was assayed by visual acuity and central visual field using the Octopus perimeter before surgery and in the first three post operative months. Pre and post operative fluorescein angiography frames were digitalized and the size of each lesions were compared. RESULTS: After a 3 months follow up, visual acuity remained stable or improved in 66% of the patients. However, visual acuity was better than 0.1 in 15% of the patients. Central visual field comparison disclosed a significant worsening of the retinal sensitivity in the 3 degree field surrounding the central point. On fluorescein frames, submacular scar was 141% of the size of the neovascular membrane. After a mean follow up of 6.9 months (range 3-14), one case of recurrence occurred. A cataract was observed in 85% of the phakic patients followed for more than six months. CONCLUSION: After a short term follow up, surgery can stabilise visual acuity, even though it remains poor. A worsening of the scotoma in the 3 degrees surrounding the central point is observed. However, patients noticed a subjective visual improvement in 62% of the case.

Pathology and first occurrence of the kidney trematode Paratanaisia bragai (Santos, 1934) Freitas, 1959 (Digenea: Eucotylidae) in Phasianus colchicus L., 1758, from Brazil

The kidney trematode Paratanaisia bragai is reported for the first time parasitizing the ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus L., 1758) and the pathological alterations associated to the parasitism are referred on the basis of 50 specimens of this bird from backyard flocks in 11 counties of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil after clinical examination, necropsies, and histopathological analysis. The counting of the kidney flukes was based on worms recovered from one of the kidneys, since the other was fixed in 10% formalin and then routinely processed for histopathological procedures. The prevalence of P. bragai was of 22%, with a mean intensity of 44.3, mean abundance of 9.7, and range of infection of 3-153. Parasitized birds did not present with clinical signs and kidney gross lesions. Microscopic lesions were mild and characterized by dilatation of the renal medullary collecting ducts, occasional flattening of the lining epithelium of the ducts and inflammatory reaction of variable intensity with granulocytes around the ureter branches and medullary collecting ducts. The severity and pattern of the microscopic lesions seem not to be associated to the size of the worm burden and could be related to the mechanic action of the parasites, without traumatism, in despite of the presence of the tegumentar spines in specimens of P. bragai.

Calculation of correction factors for ionization chamber measurements with small fields in low-density media.

The quantity of interest for high-energy photon beam therapy recommended by most dosimetric protocols is the absorbed dose to water. Thus, ionization chambers are calibrated in absorbed dose to water, which is the same quantity as what is calculated by most treatment planning systems (TPS). However, when measurements are performed in a low-density medium, the presence of the ionization chamber generates a perturbation at the level of the secondary particle range. Therefore, the measured quantity is close to the absorbed dose to a volume of water equivalent to the chamber volume. This quantity is not equivalent to the dose calculated by a TPS, which is the absorbed dose to an infinitesimally small volume of water. This phenomenon can lead to an overestimation of the absorbed dose measured with an ionization chamber of up to 40% in extreme cases. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate correction factors based on the Monte Carlo simulations. These correction factors are obtained by the ratio of the absorbed dose to water in a low-density medium □D(w,Q,V1)(low) averaged over a scoring volume V₁ for a geometry where V₁ is filled with the low-density medium and the absorbed dose to water □D(w,QV2)(low) averaged over a volume V₂ for a geometry where V₂ is filled with water. In the Monte Carlo simulations, □D(w,QV2)(low) is obtained by replacing the volume of the ionization chamber by an equivalent volume of water, according to the definition of the absorbed dose to water. The method is validated in two different configurations which allowed us to study the behavior of this correction factor as a function of depth in phantom, photon beam energy, phantom density and field size.

Morphometric analysis of Triatoma dimidiata populations (Reduviidae:Triatominae) from Mexico and Northern Guatemala

Triatoma dimidiata is one of the major vectors of Chagas disease in Latin America. Its range includes Mexico, all countries of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. In light of recent genetic analysis suggesting that the possible origin of this species is the Yucatan peninsula, we have analyzed populations from the state of Yucatan, San Luis Potosi, and Veracruz in Mexico, and a population from the southern region of the Yucatan peninsula located in Northern Guatemala, the region of El Peten. Classical morphometry including principal component, discriminant, sexual dimorphism, and wing asymmetry was analyzed. San Luis Potosi and Veracruz populations were indistinguishable while clearly separate from Yucatan and Peten populations. Despite important genetic differences, Yucatan and Peten populations were highly similar. Yucatan specimens were the smallest in size, while females were larger than males in all populations. Only head characters were necessary to distinguish population level differences, although wing fluctuating asymmetry was present in all populations. These results are discussed in light of recent findings suggesting genetic polymorphism in most populations of Triatoma dimidiata south of Chiapas to Ecuador.

The Size of the Problem: NAO Report - Tackling Obesity in England

Powerpoint presentation by Rob Pridequx from the National Audit office

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

The additive genetic variance after bottlenecks is affected by the number of loci involved in epistatic interactions.

We investigated the role of the number of loci coding for a neutral trait on the release of additive variance for this trait after population bottlenecks. Different bottleneck sizes and durations were tested for various matrices of genotypic values, with initial conditions covering the allele frequency space. We used three different types of matrices. First, we extended Cheverud and Routman's model by defining matrices of "pure" epistasis for three and four independent loci; second, we used genotypic values drawn randomly from uniform, normal, and exponential distributions; and third we used two models of simple metabolic pathways leading to physiological epistasis. For all these matrices of genotypic values except the dominant metabolic pathway, we find that, as the number of loci increases from two to three and four, an increase in the release of additive variance is occurring. The amount of additive variance released for a given set of genotypic values is a function of the inbreeding coefficient, independently of the size and duration of the bottleneck. The level of inbreeding necessary to achieve maximum release in additive variance increases with the number of loci. We find that additive-by-additive epistasis is the type of epistasis most easily converted into additive variance. For a wide range of models, our results show that epistasis, rather than dominance, plays a significant role in the increase of additive variance following bottlenecks.