Modeling construction time in Spanish building projects

The literature states that project duration is affected by various scope factors. Using 168 building projects carried out in Spain, this paper uses the multiple regression analysis to develop a forecast model that allows estimating project duration of new builds. The proposed model uses project type, gross floor area (GFA), the cost/GFA relationship and number of floors as predictor variables. The research identified the logarithmic form of construction speed as the most appropriate response variable. GFA has greater influence than cost on project duration but both factors are necessary to achieve a forecast model with the highest accuracy. We developed an analysis to verify the stability of forecasted values and showed how a model with high values of fit and accuracy may display an anomalous behavior in the forecasted values. The sensitivity of the proposed forecast model was also analyzed versus the variability of construction costs.

Testing a new Free Core Nutation empirical model

The Free Core Nutation (FCN) is a free mode of the Earth's rotation caused by the different material characteristics of the Earth's core and mantle. This causes the rotational axes of those layers to slightly diverge from each other, resulting in a wobble of the Earth's rotation axis comparable to nutations. In this paper we focus on estimating empirical FCN models using the observed nutations derived from the VLBI sessions between 1993 and 2013. Assuming a fixed value for the oscillation period, the time-variable amplitudes and phases are estimated by means of multiple sliding window analyses. The effects of using different a priori Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) in the derivation of models are also addressed. The optimal choice of the fundamental parameters of the model, namely the window width and step-size of its shift, is searched by performing a thorough experimental analysis using real data. The former analyses lead to the derivation of a model with a temporal resolution higher than the one used in the models currently available, with a sliding window reduced to 400 days and a day-by-day shift. It is shown that this new model increases the accuracy of the modeling of the observed Earth's rotation. Besides, empirical models determined from USNO Finals as a priori ERP present a slightly lower Weighted Root Mean Square (WRMS) of residuals than IERS 08 C04 along the whole period of VLBI observations, according to our computations. The model is also validated through comparisons with other recognized models. The level of agreement among them is satisfactory. Let us remark that our estimates give rise to the lowest residuals and seem to reproduce the FCN signal in more detail.

Paleomagnetic and stable isotope measurements and distribution of benthic foraminifera in sediment core PS1388-3 from the Antarctic continental margin in the eastern Weddell Sea

A stable isotope record from the eastern Weddell Sea from 69°S is presented. For the first time, a 250,000-yr record from the Southern Ocean can be correlated in detail to the global isotope stratigraphy. Together with magnetostratigraphic, sedimentological and micropalaeontological data, the stratigraphic control of this record can be extended back to 910,000 yrs B.P. A time scale is constructed by linear interpolation between confirmed stratigraphic data points. The benthic d18O record (Epistominella exigua) reflects global continental ice volume changes during the Brunhes and late Matuyama chrons, whereas the planktonic isotopic record (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma) may be influenced by a meltwater lid caused by the nearby Antarctic ice shelf and icebergs. The worldwide climatic improvement during deglaciations is documented in the eastern Weddell Sea by an increase in production of siliceous plankton followed, with a time lag of approximately 10,000 yrs, by planktonic foraminifera production. Peak values in the difference between planktonic and benthic d13C records, which are 0.5 per mil higher during warm climatic periods than during times with expanded continental ice sheets, also suggest increased surface productivity during interglacials in the Southern Ocean.

(Table S1) Age determination of ODP Site 165-1002

A series of 14C measurements in Ocean Drilling Program cores from the tropical Cariaco Basin, which have been correlated to the annual-layer counted chronology for the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, provides a high-resolution calibration of the radiocarbon time scale back to 50,000 years before the present. Independent radiometric dating of events correlated to GISP2 suggests that the calibration is accurate. Reconstructed 14C activities varied substantially during the last glacial period, including sharp peaks synchronous with the Laschamp and Mono Lake geomagnetic field intensity minimal and cosmogenic nuclide peaks in ice cores and marine sediments. Simulations with a geochemical box model suggest that much of the variability can be explained by geomagnetically modulated changes in 14C production rate together with plausible changes in deep-ocean ventilation and the global carbon cycle during glaciation.

Dynamic Models under Uncertainty for Large-Scale Enterprise Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Lameness, metabolic and digestive disorders, and technical efficiency in Danish dairy herds: a stochastic frontier production function approach

The relationship between reported treatments of lameness, metabolic disorders (milk fever, ketosis), digestive disorders, and technical efficiency (TE) was investigated using neutral and non-neutral stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). TE is estimated relative to the stochastic frontier production function for a sample of 574 Danish dairy herds collected in 1997. Contrary to most published results, but in line with the expected negative impact of disorders on the average cow milk production, herds reporting higher frequencies of milk fever are less technically efficient. Unexpectedly, however, the opposite results were observed for lameness, ketosis, and digestive disorders. The non-neutral stochastic frontier indicated that the opposite results are due to the relative. high productivities of inputs. The productivity of the cows is also reflected by the direction of impact of herd management variables. Whereas efficient farms replace cows more frequently, enroll heifers in production at an earlier age, and have shorter calving intervals, they also report higher frequency of disorder treatments. The average estimated energy corrected milk loss per cow is 1036, 451 and 242 kg for low, medium and high efficient farms. The study demonstrates the benefit of the stochastic frontier production function involving the estimation of individual technical efficiencies to evaluate farm performance and investigate the source of inefficiency. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A physiological product-release model for baculovirus infected insect cells

Existing models describe the product release from baculovirus infected insect cells as an unspecific protein leakage occurring in parallel with protein production. The model presented here shows that the observed product release of normally non-secreted proteins can be described through cell death alone. This model avoids the implicit non-physiological assumption of previous models that cells permeable to recombinant protein as well as trypan blue continue to produce protein. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics is presented. This is the stochastic SIS logistic model with the novel aspect that it incorporates varying carrying capacity. We present results of Kurtz and Barbour, that provide deterministic and diffusion approximations for a wide class of stochastic models, in a form that most easily allows their direct application to population models. These results are used to show that a suitably scaled version of the metapopulation model converges, uniformly in probability over finite time intervals, to a deterministic model previously studied in the ecological literature. Additionally, they allow us to establish a bivariate normal approximation to the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. This allows us to consider the effects of habitat dynamics on metapopulation modelling through a comparison with the stochastic SIS logistic model and provides an effective means for modelling metapopulations inhabiting dynamic landscapes.

Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a refinement calculus for concurrent real-time programs

We define a language and a predicative semantics to model concurrent real-time programs. We consider different communication paradigms between the concurrent components of a program: communication via shared variables and asynchronous message passing (for different models of channels). The semantics is the basis for a refinement calculus to derive machine-independent concurrent real-time programs from specifications. We give some examples of refinement laws that deal with concurrency.

A PALAVRA DE JAVÉ EM JEREMIAS 7,1 8,3: UMA ANÁLISE DA PROFECIA COMO PORTADORA DE UM CONFLITO SOCIAL ORIUNDO DA COBRANÇA EXCESSIVA DE TRIBUTO

Esta pesquisa privilegia o enfoque histórico ao analisar o texto bíblico, como produto histórico-social, a partir do método sociológico. O material disposto ao longo desta investigação pretende ser uma ajuda para a compreensão de alguns textos do profeta Jeremias. Partindo do princípio de que o texto possui um vínculo com a sociedade na qual foi criado e fazendo uso da metodologia exegética, realiza-se uma análise histórico-sociológica da palavra de Javé em Jeremias 7,1 8,3 como portadora de um conflito social oriundo da cobrança excessiva de tributo em uma sociedade judaíta marcadamente tributária. Busca-se, por esse meio, o sentido do texto dentro do provável cenário histórico-social que permeia o escrito. Para isso, faz-se necessária a investigação dos aspectos preliminares que envolvem tanto o livro de Jeremias, sobretudo, os polêmicos caps. 7,1 8,3, como também a questão do estudo da pesquisa moderna acerca dessa magnífica obra. Vale a pena também salientar o conceito semiótico da poética sociológica que procura estudar a interação causal entre literatura e seu meio social. Além disso, avalia-se o âmbito histórico social da unidade literária alvo de nossa pesquisa, situando-a em seu provável contexto histórico social e determinando a datação, o cenário político e o modo de produção vigente nesse período. Não olvidando, contudo, do fator desencadeador do conflito social e o papel da religião nesse cenário. Além do mais, examina-se o sentido dos textos específicos ou unidades literárias concluídas (perícopes) presentes nos caps. 7,1 8,3, tendo como pressuposto o modelo teórico do modo de produção tributário e os passos da exegese histórico-social. O mecanismo socioanalítico do modo de produção tributário servirá como instrumento de análise da condição socioeconômica, centrando-se nos componentes externos incorporados na coletânea, não em sua história redacional, mas sim em sua formação social.

Nuclear magnetic resonance studies of molecular interactions and structures

This thesis is concerned with the investigation, by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, of the molecular interactions occurring in mixtures of benzene and cyclohexane to which either chloroform or deutero-chloroform has been added. The effect of the added polar molecule on the liquid structure has been studied using spin-lattice relaxation time, 1H chemical shift, and nuclear Overhauser effect measurements. The main purpose of the work has been to validate a model for molecular interaction involving local ordering of benzene around chloroform. A chemical method for removing dissolved oxygen from samples has been developed to encompass a number of types of sample, including quantitative mixtures, and its supremacy over conventional deoxygenation technique is shown. A set of spectrometer conditions, the use of which produces the minimal variation in peak height in the steady state, is presented. To separate the general diluting effects of deutero-chloroform from its effects due to the production of local order a series of mixtures involving carbon tetrachloride, instead of deutero-chloroform, have been used as non-interacting references. The effect of molecular interaction is shown to be explainable using a solvation model, whilst an approach involving 1:1 complex formation is shown not to account for the observations. It is calculated that each solvation shell, based on deutero-chloroform, contains about twelve molecules of benzene or cyclohexane. The equations produced to account for the T1 variations have been adapted to account for the 1H chemical shift variations in the same system. The shift measurements are shown to substantiate the solvent cage model with a cage capacity of twelve molecules around each chloroform molecule. Nuclear Overhauser effect data have been analysed quantitatively in a manner consistent with the solvation model. The results show that discrete shells only exist when the mole fraction of deutero-chloroform is below about 0.08.

Modelling nonlinear stochastic dynamics in financial time series

For analysing financial time series two main opposing viewpoints exist, either capital markets are completely stochastic and therefore prices follow a random walk, or they are deterministic and consequently predictable. For each of these views a great variety of tools exist with which it can be tried to confirm the hypotheses. Unfortunately, these methods are not well suited for dealing with data characterised in part by both paradigms. This thesis investigates these two approaches in order to model the behaviour of financial time series. In the deterministic framework methods are used to characterise the dimensionality of embedded financial data. The stochastic approach includes here an estimation of the unconditioned and conditional return distributions using parametric, non- and semi-parametric density estimation techniques. Finally, it will be shown how elements from these two approaches could be combined to achieve a more realistic model for financial time series.

A production planning system for plastic footwear in a seasonal market

Modern injection-moulding machinery which produces several, pairs of plastic footwear at a time brought increased production planning problems to a factory. The demand for its footwear is seasonal but the company's manning policy keeps a fairly constant production level thus determining the aggregate stock. Production planning must therefore be done within the limitations of a specified total stock. The thesis proposes a new production planning system with four subsystems. These are sales forecasting, resource planning, and two levels of production scheduling: (a) aggregate decisions concerning the 'manufacturing group' (group of products) to be produced in each machine each week, and (b) detailed decisions concerning the products within a manufacturing group to be scheduled into each mould-place. The detailed scheduling is least dependent on improvements elsewhere so the sub-systems were tackled in reverse order. The thesis concentrates on the production scheduling sub-systems which will provide most. of the benefits. The aggregate scheduling solution depends principally on the aggregate stocks of each manufacturing group and their division into 'safety stocks' (to prevent shortages) and 'freestocks' (to permit batch production). The problem is too complex for exact solution but a good heuristic solution, which has yet to be implemented, is provided by minimising graphically immediate plus expected future costs. The detailed problem splits into determining the optimal safety stocks and batch quantities given the appropriate aggregate stocks. It.is found that the optimal safety stocks are proportional to the demand. The ideal batch quantities are based on a modified, formula for the Economic Batch Quantity and the product schedule is created week by week using a priority system which schedules to minimise expected future costs. This algorithm performs almost optimally. The detailed scheduling solution was implemented and achieved the target savings for the whole project in favourable circumstances. Future plans include full implementation.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.