986 resultados para Probability and Statistics
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical significance of transient ischemic dilation of the left ventricle during myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with stress/rest sestamibi. METHODS: The study retrospectively analyzed 378 patients who underwent myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with stress/rest sestamibi, 340 of whom had a low probability of having ischemia and 38 had significant transient defects. Transient ischemic dilation was automatically calculated using Autoquant software. Sensitivity, specificity, and the positive and negative predictive values were established for each value of transient ischemic dilation. RESULTS: The values of transient ischemic dilation for the groups of low probability and significant transient defects were, respectively, 1.01 ± 0.13 and 1.18 ± 0.17. The values of transient ischemic dilation for the group with significant transient defects were significantly greater than those obtained for the group with a low probability (P<0.001). The greatest positive predictive values, around 50%, were obtained for the values of transient ischemic dilation above 1.25. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that transient ischemic dilation assessed using the stress/rest sestamibi protocol may be useful to separate patients with extensive myocardial ischemia from those without ischemia.
Resumo:
Background: Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in Brazil. Objective: To estimate total CVD, cerebrovascular disease (CBVD), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in adults in the counties of the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ), from 1979 to 2010. Methods: The counties of the SRJ were analysed according to their denominations stablished by the geopolitical structure of 1950, Each new county that have since been created, splitting from their original county, was grouped according to their former origin. Population Data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and data on deaths were obtained from DataSus/MS. Mean CVD, CBVD, and IHD mortality rates were estimated, compensated for deaths from ill-defined causes, and adjusted for age and sex using the direct method for three periods: 1979–1989, 1990–1999, and 2000–2010, Such results were spatially represented in maps. Tables were also constructed showing the mortality rates for each disease and year period. Results: There was a significant reduction in mortality rates across the three disease groups over the the three defined periods in all the county clusters analysed, Despite an initial mortality rate variation among the counties, it was observed a homogenization of such rates at the final period (2000–2010). The drop in CBVD mortality was greater than that in IHD mortality. Conclusion: Mortality due to CVD has steadily decreased in the SRJ in the last three decades. This reduction cannot be explained by greater access to high technology procedures or better control of cardiovascular risk factors as these facts have not occurred or happened in low proportion of cases with the exception of smoking which has decreased significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to seek explanations for this decrease, which may be related to improvements in the socioeconomic conditions of the population.
Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods
Resumo:
Background:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country.Objective:To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010.Methods:This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA.Results:There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males.Conclusion:The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions.
Resumo:
Abstract Background: Studies have questioned the downward trend in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brazil in recent years. Objective: to analyze recent trends in mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in the Brazilian population. Methods: Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Ministry of Health. Risk of death was adjusted by the direct method, using as reference the world population of 2000. We analyzed trends in mortality from CVD, IHD and stroke in women and men in the periods of 1980-2006 and 2007-2012. Results: there was a decrease in CVD mortality and stroke in women and men for both periods (p < 0.001). Annual mortality variations for periods 1980-2006 and 2007-2012 were, respectively: CVD (total): -1.5% and -0.8%; CVD men: -1.4% and -0.6%; CVD women: -1.7% and -1.0%; DIC (men): -1.1% and 0.1%; stroke (men): -1.7% and -1.4%; DIC (women): -1.5% and 0.4%; stroke (women): -2.0% and -1.9%. From 1980 to 2006, there was a decrease in IHD mortality in men and women (p < 0.001), but from 2007 to 2012, changes in IHD mortality were not significant in men [y = 151 + 0.04 (R2 = 0.02; p = 0.779)] and women [y = 88-0.54 (R2 = 0.24; p = 0.320). Conclusion: Trend in mortality from IHD stopped falling in Brazil from 2007 to 2012.
Resumo:
The main object of the present paper consists in giving formulas and methods which enable us to determine the minimum number of repetitions or of individuals necessary to garantee some extent the success of an experiment. The theoretical basis of all processes consists essentially in the following. Knowing the frequency of the desired p and of the non desired ovents q we may calculate the frequency of all possi- ble combinations, to be expected in n repetitions, by expanding the binomium (p-+q)n. Determining which of these combinations we want to avoid we calculate their total frequency, selecting the value of the exponent n of the binomium in such a way that this total frequency is equal or smaller than the accepted limit of precision n/pª{ 1/n1 (q/p)n + 1/(n-1)| (q/p)n-1 + 1/ 2!(n-2)| (q/p)n-2 + 1/3(n-3) (q/p)n-3... < Plim - -(1b) There does not exist an absolute limit of precision since its value depends not only upon psychological factors in our judgement, but is at the same sime a function of the number of repetitions For this reasen y have proposed (1,56) two relative values, one equal to 1-5n as the lowest value of probability and the other equal to 1-10n as the highest value of improbability, leaving between them what may be called the "region of doubt However these formulas cannot be applied in our case since this number n is just the unknown quantity. Thus we have to use, instead of the more exact values of these two formulas, the conventional limits of P.lim equal to 0,05 (Precision 5%), equal to 0,01 (Precision 1%, and to 0,001 (Precision P, 1%). The binominal formula as explained above (cf. formula 1, pg. 85), however is of rather limited applicability owing to the excessive calculus necessary, and we have thus to procure approximations as substitutes. We may use, without loss of precision, the following approximations: a) The normal or Gaussean distribution when the expected frequency p has any value between 0,1 and 0,9, and when n is at least superior to ten. b) The Poisson distribution when the expected frequecy p is smaller than 0,1. Tables V to VII show for some special cases that these approximations are very satisfactory. The praticai solution of the following problems, stated in the introduction can now be given: A) What is the minimum number of repititions necessary in order to avoid that any one of a treatments, varieties etc. may be accidentally always the best, on the best and second best, or the first, second, and third best or finally one of the n beat treatments, varieties etc. Using the first term of the binomium, we have the following equation for n: n = log Riim / log (m:) = log Riim / log.m - log a --------------(5) B) What is the minimun number of individuals necessary in 01der that a ceratin type, expected with the frequency p, may appaer at least in one, two, three or a=m+1 individuals. 1) For p between 0,1 and 0,9 and using the Gaussean approximation we have: on - ó. p (1-p) n - a -1.m b= δ. 1-p /p e c = m/p } -------------------(7) n = b + b² + 4 c/ 2 n´ = 1/p n cor = n + n' ---------- (8) We have to use the correction n' when p has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. The greek letters delta represents in the present esse the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution for the three conventional limits of precision : 1,64; 2,33; and 3,09 respectively. h we are only interested in having at least one individual, and m becomes equal to zero, the formula reduces to : c= m/p o para a = 1 a = { b + b²}² = b² = δ2 1- p /p }-----------------(9) n = 1/p n (cor) = n + n´ 2) If p is smaller than 0,1 we may use table 1 in order to find the mean m of a Poisson distribution and determine. n = m: p C) Which is the minimun number of individuals necessary for distinguishing two frequencies p1 and p2? 1) When pl and p2 are values between 0,1 and 0,9 we have: n = { δ p1 ( 1-pi) + p2) / p2 (1 - p2) n= 1/p1-p2 }------------ (13) n (cor) We have again to use the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution. The correction n' should be used if at least one of the valors pl or p2 has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. A more complicated formula may be used in cases where whe want to increase the precision : n (p1 - p2) δ { p1 (1- p2 ) / n= m δ = δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p2 ( 1 - p2) c= m / p1 - p2 n = { b2 + 4 4 c }2 }--------- (14) n = 1/ p1 - p2 2) When both pl and p2 are smaller than 0,1 we determine the quocient (pl-r-p2) and procure the corresponding number m2 of a Poisson distribution in table 2. The value n is found by the equation : n = mg /p2 ------------- (15) D) What is the minimun number necessary for distinguishing three or more frequencies, p2 p1 p3. If the frequecies pl p2 p3 are values between 0,1 e 0,9 we have to solve the individual equations and sue the higest value of n thus determined : n 1.2 = {δ p1 (1 - p1) / p1 - p2 }² = Fiim n 1.2 = { δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p1 ( 1 - p1) }² } -- (16) Delta represents now the bilateral limits of the : Gaussean distrioution : 1,96-2,58-3,29. 2) No table was prepared for the relatively rare cases of a comparison of threes or more frequencies below 0,1 and in such cases extremely high numbers would be required. E) A process is given which serves to solve two problemr of informatory nature : a) if a special type appears in n individuals with a frequency p(obs), what may be the corresponding ideal value of p(esp), or; b) if we study samples of n in diviuals and expect a certain type with a frequency p(esp) what may be the extreme limits of p(obs) in individual farmlies ? I.) If we are dealing with values between 0,1 and 0,9 we may use table 3. To solve the first question we select the respective horizontal line for p(obs) and determine which column corresponds to our value of n and find the respective value of p(esp) by interpolating between columns. In order to solve the second problem we start with the respective column for p(esp) and find the horizontal line for the given value of n either diretly or by approximation and by interpolation. 2) For frequencies smaller than 0,1 we have to use table 4 and transform the fractions p(esp) and p(obs) in numbers of Poisson series by multiplication with n. Tn order to solve the first broblem, we verify in which line the lower Poisson limit is equal to m(obs) and transform the corresponding value of m into frequecy p(esp) by dividing through n. The observed frequency may thus be a chance deviate of any value between 0,0... and the values given by dividing the value of m in the table by n. In the second case we transform first the expectation p(esp) into a value of m and procure in the horizontal line, corresponding to m(esp) the extreme values om m which than must be transformed, by dividing through n into values of p(obs). F) Partial and progressive tests may be recomended in all cases where there is lack of material or where the loss of time is less importent than the cost of large scale experiments since in many cases the minimun number necessary to garantee the results within the limits of precision is rather large. One should not forget that the minimun number really represents at the same time a maximun number, necessary only if one takes into consideration essentially the disfavorable variations, but smaller numbers may frequently already satisfactory results. For instance, by definition, we know that a frequecy of p means that we expect one individual in every total o(f1-p). If there were no chance variations, this number (1- p) will be suficient. and if there were favorable variations a smaller number still may yield one individual of the desired type. r.nus trusting to luck, one may start the experiment with numbers, smaller than the minimun calculated according to the formulas given above, and increase the total untill the desired result is obtained and this may well b ebefore the "minimum number" is reached. Some concrete examples of this partial or progressive procedure are given from our genetical experiments with maize.
Resumo:
In IP networks, most of packets, that have been dropped, are recovered after the expiration of retransmission timeouts. These can result in unnecessary retransmissions and needless reduction of congestion window. An inappropriate retransmission timeout has a huge impact on TCP performance. In this paper we have proved that CSMA/CA mechanism can cause TCP retransmissions due to CSMA/CA effects. For this we have observed three wireless connections that use CSMA/CA: with good link quality, poor link quality and in presence of cross traffic. The measurements have been performed using real devices. Through tracking of each transmitted packet it is possible to analyze the relation between one-way delay and packet loss probability and the cumulative distribution of distances between peaks of OWDs. The distribution of OWDs and the distances between peaks of OWDs are the most important parameters of tuning TCP retransmission timeout on CSMA/CA networks. A new perspective through investigating the dynamical relation between one-way delay and packet loss ratio depending on the link quality to enhance the TCP performance has been provided.
Resumo:
Aquest projecte descriu el disseny i desenvolupament d’una eina gràfica per a la depuració de projectes desenvolupats amb un llenguatge de descripció de sistemes com és el SystemC. Amb aquest llenguatge s’ha desenvolupat una NoC (Network on Chip). L’eina desenvolupada mostra de forma visual l’arquitectura de la xarxa NoC, els valors dels senyals que es transmeten a través de la xarxa i estadístiques sobre aquests per tal de poder fer un seguiment exhaustiu i agilitzar la recerca d’errors com interbloquejos, pèrdua de dades i d’altres. Al concentrar en un únic entorn la descripció de la NoC i les dades relatives a les senyals en temps de simulació, proporciona un valor afegit a altres eines disponibles per a realitzar aquesta tasca.
Resumo:
Les comunicacions cooperatives estan guanyant un gran interès en les comunicacions modernes degut a que permeten millorar la transmissió dʼinformació entre un emissor i un receptor utilitzant una sèrie de terminals situats entre ells. Aquest projecte és un estudi complet del sistemes cooperatius, analitzant el seu rendiment i comparant lʼús dʼun sol dʼaquests terminals amb lʼús del codi Alamouti, que utilitza dos terminals. Primer hi ha una introducció als sistemes cooperatius i a la teoria de la informació. Després hem estudiat un sistema cooperatiu amb la teoria de la informació com a base, en termes de probabilitat de fallada del sistema, i posteriorment lʼhem adaptat a un sistema cooperatiu real utilitzant una modulació QPSK, estudiant la seva probabilitat dʼerror de paquet. Finalment es proposen diversos protocols que permeten millorar el rendiment del sistema cooperatiu estudiat.
Resumo:
Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la School of Mathematics and Statistics de la University of Plymouth, United Kingdom, entre abril juliol del 2007.Aquesta investigació és encara oberta i la memòria que presento constitueix un informe de la recerca que estem duent a terme actualment. En aquesta nota estudiem els centres isòcrons dels sistemes Hamiltonians analítics, parant especial atenció en el cas polinomial. Ens centrem en els anomenats quadratic-like Hamiltonian systems. Diverses propietats dels centres isòcrons d'aquest tipus de sistemes van ser donades a [A. Cima, F. Mañosas and J. Villadelprat, Isochronicity for several classes of Hamiltonian systems, J. Di®erential Equations 157 (1999) 373{413]. Aquell article estava centrat principalment en el cas en que A; B i C fossin funcions analítiques. El nostre objectiu amb l'estudi que estem duent a terme és investigar el cas en el que aquestes funcions són polinomis. En aquesta nota formulem una conjectura concreta sobre les propietats algebraiques que venen forçades per la isocronia del centre i provem alguns resultats parcials.
Resumo:
El projecte Aula Matemàtica consta de dues parts. 1. Elaborar un material d'autoaprenentatge en suport digital que cobreixi tots els temes de Matemàtiques de 1r. curs de les carreres de Ciències (Biologia, Química, etc.) i les Enginyeries. Aquest material, accessible des de qualsevol ordinador connectat a Internet, és una base de dades de problemes que els alumnes poden utilitzar per a treballar el temes explicats a classe, o be per cobrir deficiències a la seva formació pre-universitària. Al mateix temps, es poden realitzar exàmens, i els alumnes poden practicar amb els problemes d'examen. 2. Durant unes hores cada dia, oferir una (o diverses) aules d'informàtica al campus de la UAB amb presència de personal de suport (professors, o becaris de darrers cursos de matemàtiques o doctorat) per tal que els alumnes que vulguin (o necessitin) puguin practicar amb ajuda, i consultat els dubtes que tinguin. En la fase actual del projecte s’han fet les següents actuacions: 1. S’ha obert una aula d’informàtica amb suport de becaris a la facultat de Ciències, on a més de practicar els alumnes, s’han efectuat exàmens. 2. S’ha treballat en el programa per tal de fer-lo més amigable. 3. S’ha ampliat la base de problemes fins a 1450, i cobrir totes les assignatures de Matemàtiques i Estadística de 1r. curs de la facultat de Ciències i l’Escola Tècnica Superior d’Enginyeries. 4. S’ha començat a treballar per a la utilització del programa a Secundària. 5. S’han fet avanços molt importants per tal d’incorporar problemes amb resposta oberta. 6. El programa és accessible des de qualsevol ordenador amb Internet.
Resumo:
The effect of exposing the lymnaeid snail Fossaria cubensis to the trematode Fasciola hepatica on the snail population's life-history traits was studied under laboratory conditions. Exposed individuals showed a lower survival rate than control snails, although from week 7 onward a slower decrease of this parameter in relation to the control group was observed. There were higher values of fecundity rate for the controls compared to the exposed group except during weeks 9, 10, 11 and 12, which was the time that followed the period when almost all of the infected snails died. Both the intrinsic and finite rates of natural increase were significantly higher for the control group, but exposed snails still attained a lower mean generation time. Age-specific trade-offs were found, mainly for the weekly increase in size versus the number of eggs per mass, the weekly increase in size versus the number of viable eggs per mass, the number of masses versus the hatching probability and the number of eggs versus the hatching probability. All these negative associations were significant for juveniles of both control and exposed snails and not for adults; however, exposed young individuals exhibited much higher values of the correlation coefficient than control animals.
Resumo:
In the Department of Health, Social Services and Public safety (DHSSPS) Information and Statistics, and Research, are viewed as policies in their own right rather than support functions to other policies. This paper presents - in synoptic form - an overview of the information availability, quality and deficits required for DHSSPS and the HPSS to meet its statutory requirements, as known by Information and Analysis Unit (IAU) in the Department. åÊ
Resumo:
En el nostre projecte, considerem un escenari urbà o interurbà on persones amb dispositius mòbils (smartphones) o vehicles equipats amb interfícies de comunicació, estan interessats en compartir fitxers entre ells o descarregar-los al creuar Punts d’Accés (APs) propers a la carretera. Estudiem la possibilitat d’utilizar la cooperació en les trobades casuals entre nodes per augmentar la velocitat de descàrrega global. Amb aquest objectiu, plantejem algoritmes per a la selecció de quins paquets, per a quins destins i quins transportistes s’escullen en cada moment. Mitjançant extenses simulacions, mostrem com les cooperacions carry&forward dels nodes augmenten significativament la velocitat de descàrrega dels usuaris, i com aquest resultat es manté per a diversos patrons de mobilitat, col•locacions d'AP i càrregues de la xarxa. Per altra banda, aparells com els smartphones, on la targeta de WiFi està encesa contínuament, consumeixen l'energia de la bateria en poques hores. En molts escenaris, una targeta WiFi sempre activa és poc útil, perque sovint no hi ha necessitat de transmissió o recepció. Aquest fet es veu agreujat en les Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), on els nodes intercanvien dades quan es creuen i en tenen l’oportunitat. Les tècniques de gestió de l’estalvi d’energia permeten extendre la duració de les bateries. El nostre projecte analitza els avantatges i inconvenients que apareixen quan els nodes apaguen períodicament la seva targeta wireless per a estalviar energia en escenaris DTN. Els nostres resultats mostren les condicions en que un node pot desconnectar la bateria sense afectar la probabilitat de contacte amb altres nodes, i les condicions en que aquesta disminueix. Per exemple, es demostra que la vida del node pot ser duplicada mantenint la probabilitat de contacte a 1. I que aquesta disminueix ràpidament en intentar augmentar més la vida útil.
Resumo:
Résumé: Ce travail d'histoire comparée de la littérature et de la sociologie s'interroge sur l'émergence de la notion de type dans les pratiques de description du monde social au cours des années 1820-1860. A partir de l'analyse des opérations de schématisation engagées par Honoré Balzac dans La Comédie humaine et par Frédéric Le Play dans Les Ouvriers européens, soit deux oeuvres que tout semble éloigner du point de vue de leurs ambitions, de leur forme, et de la trajectoire de leur auteur, mais qui toutes deux placent cependant la typification au centre de leur dispositif, il s'est agi de produire une histoire de l'imagination typologique, et des ontologies, sociales ou non, qui lui furent associées. Aussi le corpus intègre-t-il des textes d'histoire naturelle, de sciences médicales, d'histoire, de chimie, de géologie, de métallurgie, et, bien évidemment, les genres du roman sentimental, du roman historique et de la littérature panoramique, ainsi que les enquêtes ouvrières et la statistique. Abstract: This work offers a compared history of literature and sociology in France between 1820 and 1860. During that period, the notion of type appears in the literary and sociological descriptions of social reality, and becomes more and more central in the apprehension of the differenciations among classes, communities or groups. Based on the analysis of Honoré Balzac's La Comédie humaine and Frédéric Le Play's Les Ouvriers européens, this study shows that these two series of novels and of workers' monographies put typification at the center of their descriptive ambition. More broadly, it proposes a history of the uses of a typological imagination and of the ontologies, above all social, that were underlying them. That is why the texts also taken into account in this study ranges from natural history, medical sciences, history, chemistry geology and metallurgy, to the sentimental novel, the historical novel and the panoramic literature, as well as social inquiries and statistics.
Resumo:
S’ha demostrat que la pràctica d'estats de relaxació profunda redueix el dolor i incrementa el benestar i la qualitat de vida. Els estats de relaxació profunda i meditació estan al seu torn associats a patrons electroencefalogràfics (EEG) característics. En el present projecte proposem un procediment pal·liatiu del dolor basat en l 'entrenament autodidàctic per aconseguir aquests estats de relaxació. Per a això es proposa retro-alimentar al subjecte un senyal auditiu reflex de la seva activitat EEG que l'ajudi a modificar voluntàriament la seva activitat cerebral, la qual cosa li permet aproximar-la progressivament al patró EEG corresponent al de relaxació profunda desitjat. S’ha dissenyat un protocol d'entrenament d'estats mentals de relaxació i meditació (entre altres) i implementat un programa que processa el senyal EEG i genera un senyal auditiu reflex de l'activitat cerebral de l'individu. També registra les lectures EEG del progrés de l'individu, genera les gràfiques corresponents i genera dades estadístiques per a futur anàlisi.