Estímulos fiscais e a interação entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil

Este trabalho estima, utilizando dados trimestrais de 1999 a 2011, o impacto dinâmico de um estímulo fiscal no Brasil sobre as principais variáveis macroeconômicas Brasileiras. Na estimativa dos impactos permitiu-se que as expectativas dos agentes econômicas fossem afetadas pela existência e probabilidade de alternância de regimes (foram detectados dois regimes) na política monetária do país. Os parâmetros da regra da política monetária, nos dois regimes detectados, foram estimados através de um modelo - composto apenas pela equação da regra da política monetária - que permite uma mudança de regime Markoviana. Os parâmetros do único regime encontrado para a política fiscal foram estimados por um modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (Vector Error Correction Model - VEC), composto apenas pelas variáveis pertencentes à regra da política fiscal. Os parâmetros estimados, para os diversos regimes das políticas monetária e fiscal, foram utilizados como auxiliares na calibragem de um modelo de equilíbrio geral estocástico dinâmico (MEGED), com mudanças de regime, com rigidez nominal de preços e concorrência monopolística (como em Davig e Leeper (2011)). Após a calibragem do MEGED os impactos dinâmicos de um estímulo fiscal foram obtidos através de uma rotina numérica (desenvolvida por Davig e Leeper (2006)) que permite obter o equilíbrio dinâmico do modelo resolvendo um sistema de equações de diferenças de primeira ordem expectacionais dinâmicas não lineares. Obtivemos que a política fiscal foi passiva durante todo o período analisado e que a política monetária foi sempre ativa, porém sendo em determinados momentos menos ativa. Em geral, em ambas as combinações de regimes, um choque não antecipado dos gastos do governo leva ao aumento do hiato do produto, aumento dos juros reais, redução do consumo privado e (em contradição com o resultado convencional) redução da taxa de inflação.

Markets, marketing and production issues for aquaculture in East Africa: the case of Uganda

Aquaculture is currently responsible for an insignificant proportion of total fish production in Uganda. However, given the increasing demand for fresh fish in urban and peri-urban araes, and threats to the supply of fish from natural catch fisheries, the potential exists for a strong market in aquaculture. Small-scale fish farmers located relatively close to markets or all-season roads, and who can supply consistent and high quality produce, will have the widest range of marketing opportunities, and will likely be within the area of operation of potential traders and intermediaries that deliver fish to markets. Fish farmers that are not close to roads, or produce unreliable quantities and variable quality products may face high transaction costs of marketing their product, and decreasing net returns to production. The authors found that significant on-farm labor, and access to input markets are important factors leading to positive net returns to fish production. Areas with high population density and relatively low wages will be well suited to labor intensive aquaculture. The authors concluded that aquaculture development has good potential in certain areas of Uganda and should therefore be pursued as a potential development pathway. However, policy makers should consider the importance of the price of fresh fish relative to the cost of labor, as well as other factors including the importance of smallholder credit and access to extension services, when directing investments in aquaculture technology.

Fish demand and supply projections

It has been predicted that the global demand for fish for human consumption will increase by more than 50% over the next 15 years. The FAO has projected that the increase in supply will originate primarily from marine fisheries, aquaculture and to a lesser extent from inland fisheries, but with a commensurate price increase. However, there are constraints to increased production in both marine and inland fisheries, such as overfishing, overexploitation limited potential increase and environmental degradation due to industrialization. The author sees aquaculture as having the greatest potential for future expansion. Aquaculture practices vary depending on culture, environment, society amd sources of fish. Inputs are generally low-cost, ecologically efficient and the majority of aquaculture ventures are small-scale and family operated. In the future, advances in technology, genetic improvement of cultured species, improvement in nutrition, disease management, reproduction control and environmental management are expected along with opportunities for complimentary activities with agriculture, industrial and wastewater linkages. The main constraints to aquaculture are from reduced access to suitable land and good quality water due to pollution and habitat degradation. Aquaculture itself carries minimal potential for aquatic pollution. State participation in fisheries production has not proven to be the best way to promote the fisheries sector. The role of governments is increasingly seen as creating an environment for economic sectors to make an optimum contribution, through support in areas such as infrastructure, research, training and extension and a legal framework. The author feels that a holistic approach integrating the natural and social sciences is called for when fisheries policy is being examined.

Toward a Rational Seafood Trade Policy

With a record trade deficit of almost $146 billion in 1986, and continued high deficits in 1987, there is growing concern about how continued deficits will affect the U. S. economy. Because fishery products had a record $6.3 billion deficit in 1986, the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has made the reduction of the fisheries trade deficit one of its top priorities. A recent NMFS trade objective was to "increase exports and domestic consumption of U.S. fishery products" which would lead to a reduction in the trade deficit. In this paper we explore this policy in terms of practicality and desirability.

U.S. Fisheries Management and Foreign Trade Linkages: Policy Implications for Groundfish Fisheries in the North Pacific EEZ

The groundfish resources of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off Alaska, dominated by Alaska or walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus, and flatfishes, Pleuronectidae, can sustain annual commercial harvests well in excess of 2 million metric tons (t). As recently as 1979, foreign fisheries took 99 percent of the annual harvest supported by these resources. This has changed dramatically during the 1980's. The foreign fisheries have received rapidly decreasing allocations, first as joint venture fisheries expanded and, more recently, as the domestic fisheries have grown. Joint venture fisheries are fisheries in which domestic fishing vessels deliver their catch directly to foreign processing vessels in the EEZ. By 1986, the joint venture and domestic fisheries accounted for 66 percent and 8 percent, respectively, of the annual harvest. The preliminary corresponding figures for 1987 are 78 and 18 percent.