953 resultados para Prediction Models for Air Pollution
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CONTEXT: Pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) is considered the most reliable procedure for the detection of lymph node metastases in prostate cancer (PCa); however, the therapeutic benefit of PLND in PCa management is currently under debate. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the available literature concerning the role of PLND and its extent in PCa staging and outcome. All of the existing recommendations and staging tools determining the need for PLND were also assessed. Moreover, a systematic review was performed of the long-term outcome of node-positive patients stratified according to the extent of nodal invasion. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A Medline search was conducted to identify original and review articles as well as editorials addressing the significance of PLND in PCa. Keywords included prostate cancer, pelvic lymph node dissection, radical prostatectomy, imaging, and complications. Data from the selected studies focussing on the role of PLND in PCa staging and outcome were reviewed and discussed by all of the contributing authors. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Despite recent advances in imaging techniques, PLND remains the most accurate staging procedure for the detection of lymph node invasion (LNI) in PCa. The rate of LNI increases with the extent of PLND. Extended PLND (ePLND; ie, removal of obturator, external iliac, hypogastric with or without presacral and common iliac nodes) significantly improves the detection of lymph node metastases compared with limited PLND (lPLND; ie, removal of obturator with or without external iliac nodes), which is associated with poor staging accuracy. Because not all patients with PCa are at the same risk of harbouring nodal metastases, several nomograms and tables have been developed and validated to identify candidates for PLND. These tools, however, are based mostly on findings derived from lPLND dissections performed in older patient series. According to these prediction models, a staging PLND might be omitted in low-risk PCa patients because of the low rate of lymph node metastases found, even after extended dissections (<8%). The outcome for patients with positive nodes is not necessarily poor. Indeed, patients with low-volume nodal metastases experience excellent survival rates, regardless of adjuvant treatment. But despite few retrospective studies reporting an association between PLND and PCa progression and survival, the exact impact of PLND on patient outcomes has not yet been clearly proven because of the lack of prospective randomised trials. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of current data, we suggest that if a PLND is indicated, then it should be extended. Conversely, in view of the low rate of LNI among patients with low-risk PCa, a staging ePLND might be spared in this patient category. Whether this approach is also safe from oncologic perspectives is still unknown. Patients with low-volume nodal metastases have a good long-term prognosis; to what extent this prognosis is the result of a positive impact of PLND on PCa outcomes is still to be determined.
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Lichens are a key component of forest biodiversity. However, a comprehensive study analyzing lichen species richness in relation to several management types, extending over different regions and forest stages and including information on site conditions is missing for temperate European forests. In three German regions (Schwäbische Alb, Hainich-Dün, Schorfheide-Chorin), the so-called Biodiversity Exploratories, we studied lichen species richness in 631 forest plots of 400 m2 comprising different management types (unmanaged, selection cutting, deciduous and coniferous age-class forests resulting from clear cutting or shelterwood logging), various stand ages, and site conditions, typical for large parts of temperate Europe. We analyzed how lichen species richness responds to management and habitat variables (standing biomass, cover of deadwood, cover of rocks). We found strong regional differences with highest lichen species richness in the Schwäbische Alb, probably driven by regional differences in former air pollution, and in precipitation and habitat variables. Overall, unmanaged forests harbored 22% more threatened lichen species than managed age-class forests. In general, total, corticolous, and threatened lichen species richness did not differ among management types of deciduous forests. However, in the Schwäbische-Alb region, deciduous forests had 61% more lichen species than coniferous forests and they had 279% more threatened and 76% more corticolous lichen species. Old deciduous age classes were richer in corticolous lichen species than young ones, while old coniferous age-classes were poorer than young ones. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of stand continuity for conservation. To increase total and threatened lichen species richness we suggest (1) conserving unmanaged forests, (2) promoting silvicultural methods assuring stand continuity, (3) conserving old trees in managed forests, (4) promoting stands of native deciduous tree species instead of coniferous plantations, and (5) increasing the amount of deadwood in forests.
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Alternative fuels are increasingly combusted in diesel- and gasoline engines and the contribution of such exhausts to the overall air pollution is on the rise. Recent findings on the possible adverse effects of biodiesel exhaust are contradictive, at least partly resulting from the various fuel qualities, engine types and different operation conditions that were tested. However, most of the studies are biased by undesired interactions between the exhaust samples and biological culture media. We here report how complete, freshly produced exhausts from fossil diesel (B0), from a blend of 20% rapeseed-methyl ester (RME) and 80% fossil diesel (B20) and from pure rapeseed methyl ester (B100) affect a complex 3D cellular model of the human airway epithelium in vitro by exposing the cells at the air–liquid interface. The induction of pro-apoptotic and necrotic cell death, cellular morphology, oxidative stress, and pro-inflammatory responses were assessed. Compared to B0 exhaust, B20 exhaust decreased oxidative stress and pro-inflammatory responses, whereas B100 exhaust, depending on exposure duration, decreased oxidative stress but increased pro-inflammatory responses. The effects are only very weak and given the compared to fossil diesel higher ecological sustainability of biodiesel, it appears that – at least RME – can be considered a valuable alternative to pure fossil diesel.
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BACKGROUND Persons with cystic fibrosis (CF) are at-risk for health effects from ambient air pollution but little is known about the interaction of nanoparticles (NP) with CF lungs. Here we study the distribution of inhaled NP in a murine CF model and aim to reveal mechanisms contributing to adverse effects of inhaled particles in susceptible populations. METHODS Chloride channel defective CftrTgH (neoim) Hgu mice were used to analyze lung function, lung distribution and whole body biokinetics of inhaled NP, and inflammatory responses after intratracheal administration of NP. Distribution of 20-nm titanium dioxide NP in lungs was assessed on ultrathin sections immediately and 24 h after a one-hour NP inhalation. NP biokinetics was deduced from total and regional lung deposition and from whole body translocation of inhaled 30-nm iridium NP within 24 h after aerosol inhalation. Inflammatory responses were assessed within 7 days after carbon NP instillation. RESULTS Cftr mutant females had moderately reduced lung compliance and slightly increased airway resistance compared to wild type mice. We found no genotype dependent differences in total, regional and head deposition or in secondary-organ translocation of inhaled iridium NP. Titanium dioxide inhalation resulted in higher NP uptake by alveolar epithelial cells in Cftr mutants. Instillation of carbon NP induced a comparable acute and transient inflammatory response in both genotypes. The twofold increase of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) neutrophils in Cftr mutant compared to wild type mice at day 3 but not at days 1 and 7, indicated an impaired capacity in inflammation resolution in Cftr mutants. Concomitant to the delayed decline of neutrophils, BAL granulocyte-colony stimulating factor was augmented in Cftr mutant mice. Anti-inflammatory 15-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid was generally significantly lower in BAL of Cftr mutant than in wild type mice. CONCLUSIONS Despite lacking alterations in lung deposition and biokinetics of inhaled NP, and absence of significant differences in lung function, higher uptake of NP by alveolar epithelial cells and prolonged, acute inflammatory responses to NP exposure indicate a moderately increased susceptibility of lungs to adverse effects of inhaled NP in Cftr mutant mice and provides potential mechanisms for the increased susceptibility of CF patients to air pollution.
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Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in air particulate matter contribute considerably to the health risk of air pollution. The objectives of this study were to assess the occurrence and variation in concentrations and sources of PM2.5-bound PACs [Oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs), nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs] sampled from the atmosphere of a typical Chinese megacity (Xi'an), to study the influence of meteorological conditions on PACs and to estimate the lifetime excess cancer risk to the residents of Xi'an (from inhalation of PM2.5-bound PACs). To achieve these objectives, we sampled 24-h PM2.5 aerosols (once in every 6 days, from 5 July 2008 to 8 August 2009) from the atmosphere of Xi'an and measured the concentrations of PACs in them. The PM2.5-bound concentrations of Σcarbonyl-OPAHs, ∑ hydroxyl + carboxyl-OPAHs, Σnitro-PAHs and Σalkyl + parent-PAHs ranged between 5–22, 0.2–13, 0.3–7, and 7–387 ng m− 3, respectively, being markedly higher than in most western cities. This represented a range of 0.01–0.4% and 0.002–0.06% of the mass of organic C in PM2.5 and the total mass of PM2.5, respectively. The sums of the concentrations of each compound group had winter-to-summer ratios ranging from 3 to 8 and most individual OPAHs and nitro-PAHs had higher concentrations in winter than in summer, suggesting a dominant influence of emissions from household heating and winter meteorological conditions. Ambient temperature, air pressure, and wind speed explained a large part of the temporal variation in PACs concentrations. The lifetime excess cancer risk from inhalation (attributable to selected PAHs and nitro-PAHs) was six fold higher in winter (averaging 1450 persons per million residents of Xi'an) than in summer. Our results call for the development of emission control measures.
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OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess whether prospective follow-up data within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can be used to predict patients who stop smoking; or among smokers who stop, those who start smoking again. METHODS: We built prediction models first using clinical reasoning ('clinical models') and then by selecting from numerous candidate predictors using advanced statistical methods ('statistical models'). Our clinical models were based on literature that suggests that motivation drives smoking cessation, while dependence drives relapse in those attempting to stop. Our statistical models were based on automatic variable selection using additive logistic regression with component-wise gradient boosting. RESULTS: Of 4833 smokers, 26% stopped smoking, at least temporarily; because among those who stopped, 48% started smoking again. The predictive performance of our clinical and statistical models was modest. A basic clinical model for cessation, with patients classified into three motivational groups, was nearly as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the most important predictors (the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits, alcohol or drug dependence, psychiatric comorbidities, recent hospitalization and age). A basic clinical model for relapse, based on the maximum number of cigarettes per day prior to stopping, was not as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting smoking cessation and relapse is difficult, so that simple models are nearly as discriminatory as complex ones. Patients with a history of attempting to stop and those known to have stopped recently are the best candidates for an intervention.
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The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from similar to 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.
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The development of strategies and policies aiming at the reduction of environmental exposure to air pollution requires the assessment of historical emissions. Although anthropogenic emissions from the extended territory of the Soviet Union (SU) considerably influenced concentrations of heavy metals in the Northern Hemisphere, Pb is the only metal with long-term historical emission estimates for this region available, whereas for selected other metals only single values exist. Here we present the first study assessing long-term Cd, Cu, Sb, and Zn emissions in the SU during the period 1935–1991 based on ice-core concentration records from Belukha glacier in the Siberian Altai and emission data from 12 regions in the SU for the year 1980. We show that Zn primarily emitted from the Zn production in Ust-Kamenogorsk (East Kazakhstan) dominated the SU heavy metal emission. Cd, Sb, Zn (Cu) emissions increased between 1935 and the 1970s (1980s) due to expanded non-ferrous metal production. Emissions of the four metals in the beginning of the 1990s were as low as in the 1950s, which we attribute to the economic downturn in industry, changes in technology for an increasing metal recovery from ores, the replacement of coal and oil by gas, and air pollution control.
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While several studies have investigated winter-time air pollution with a wide range of concentration levels, hardly any results are available for longer time periods covering several winter-smog episodes at various locations; e.g., often only a few weeks from a single winter are investigated. Here, we present source apportionment results of winter-smog episodes from 16 air pollution monitoring stations across Switzerland from five consecutive winters. Radiocarbon (14C) analyses of the elemental (EC) and organic (OC) carbon fractions, as well as levoglucosan, major water-soluble ionic species and gas-phase pollutant measurements were used to characterize the different sources of PM10. The most important contributions to PM10 during winter-smog episodes in Switzerland were on average the secondary inorganic constituents (sum of nitrate, sulfate and ammonium = 41 ± 15%) followed by organic matter (OM) (34 ± 13%) and EC (5 ± 2%). The non-fossil fractions of OC (fNF,OC) ranged on average from 69 to 85 and 80 to 95% for stations north and south of the Alps, respectively, showing that traffic contributes on average only up to ~ 30% to OC. The non-fossil fraction of EC (fNF,EC), entirely attributable to primary wood burning, was on average 42 ± 13 and 49 ± 15% for north and south of the Alps, respectively. While a high correlation was observed between fossil EC and nitrogen oxides, both primarily emitted by traffic, these species did not significantly correlate with fossil OC (OCF), which seems to suggest that a considerable amount of OCF is secondary, from fossil precursors. Elevated fNF,EC and fNF,OC values and the high correlation of the latter with other wood burning markers, including levoglucosan and water soluble potassium (K+) indicate that residential wood burning is the major source of carbonaceous aerosols during winter-smog episodes in Switzerland. The inspection of the non-fossil OC and EC levels and the relation with levoglucosan and water-soluble K+ shows different ratios for stations north and south of the Alps (most likely because of differences in burning technologies) for these two regions in Switzerland.
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BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.
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Determining the contribution of wood smoke to air pollution in large cities such as London is becoming increasingly important due to the changing nature of domestic heating in urban areas. During winter, biomass burning emissions have been identified as a major cause of exceedances of European air quality limits. The aim of this work was to quantify the contribution of biomass burning in London to concentrations of PM2:5 and determine whether local emissions or regional contributions were the main source of biomass smoke. To achieve this, a number of biomass burning chemical tracers were analysed at a site within central London and two sites in surrounding rural areas. Concentrations of levoglucosan, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC) and K+ were generally well correlated across the three sites. At all the sites, biomass burning was found to be a source of OC and EC, with the largest contribution of EC from traffic emissions, while for OC the dominant fraction included contributions from secondary organic aerosols, primary biogenic and cooking sources. Source apportionment of the EC and OC was found to give reasonable estimation of the total carbon from non-fossil and fossil fuel sources based upon comparison with estimates derived from 14C analysis. Aethalometer-derived black carbon data were also apportioned into the contributions frombiomass burning and traffic and showed trends similar to those observed for EC. Mean wood smoke mass at the sites was estimated to range from 0.78 to 1.0 μgm-3 during the campaign in January–February 2012. Measurements on a 160m tower in London suggested a similar ratio of brown to black carbon (reflecting wood burning and traffic respectively) in regional and London air. Peaks in the levoglucosan and K+ concentrations were observed to coincide with low ambient temperature, consistent with domestic heating as a major contributing local source in London. Overall, the source of biomass smoke in London was concluded to be a background regional source overlaid by contributions from local domestic burning emissions. This could have implications when considering future emission control strategies during winter and may be the focus of future work in order to better determine the contributing local sources.
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BACKGROUND Associations between social status and health behaviours are well documented, but the mechanisms involved are less understood. Cultural capital theory may contribute to a better understanding by expanding the scope of inequality indicators to include individuals' knowledge, skills, beliefs and material goods to examine how these indicators impact individuals' health lifestyles. We explore the structure and applicability of a set of cultural capital indicators in the empirical exploration of smoking behaviour among young male adults. METHODS We analysed data from the Swiss Federal Survey of Adolescents (CH-X) 2010-11 panel of young Swiss males (n = 10 736). A set of nine theoretically relevant variables (including incorporated, institutionalized and objectified cultural capital) were investigated using exploratory factor analysis. Regression models were run to observe the association between factor scores and smoking outcomes. Outcome measures consisted of daily smoking status and the number of cigarettes smoked by daily smokers. RESULTS Cultural capital indicators aggregated in a three-factor solution representing 'health values', 'education and knowledge' and 'family resources'. Each factor score predicted the smoking outcomes. In young males, scoring low on health values, education and knowledge and family resources was associated with a higher risk of being a daily smoker and of smoking more cigarettes daily. CONCLUSION Cultural capital measures that include, but go beyond, educational attainment can improve prediction models of smoking in young male adults. New measures of cultural capital may thus contribute to our understanding of the social status-based resources that individuals can use towards health behaviours.
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Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.
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BACKGROUND Ambrosia artemisiifolia (short name = Ambrosia common ragweed) pollen is a potent allergen and has recently been found in Switzerland, spreading from the southwest of the country. The aim of this study is to describe Ambrosia sensitisation rates in the population-based SAPALDIA cohort (Swiss Study on Air Pollution And Lung Diseases In Adults) and to test whether an increase in these rates could be observed. METHODS Among the 6345 participants from 8 areas who provided blood samples in 1991 and 2002, 5823 had valid results for specific IgE against common inhalant allergens tested with Phadiatop. In 2002 Ambrosia sensitisation was measured and positive tests were analysed for Artemisia vulgaris (mugwort). Blood samples taken in 1991 in Ticino and Geneva were also tested for Ambrosia. RESULTS Sensitisation rate (Phadiatop) did not increase significantly between the two surveys and sensitisation was found in 30% of the participants. A proportion of 7.9% showed specific IgE to Ambrosia pollen. The sensitisation rate in Lugano and Geneva had not changed substantially since 1991. Among those sensitised to Ambrosia 82% also showed specific IgE against Artemisia, suggesting a high rate of cross-reactivity. Only 1.3% were sensitized to Ambrosia alone. The incidence of asthma or hay fever in participants with specific IgE to Ambrosia pollen was not higher than in the general study population. CONCLUSION Currently Ambrosia pollen does not appear to be an important cause of inhalant allergies in Switzerland. Sensitisation rates are low and have not increased since 1991. Due to cross-reactivity Ambrosia sensitisation may be a consequence of primary sensitisation to Artemisia. Elimination of Ambrosia plants is nevertheless mandatory to avoid a future increase.
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Residential wood combustion has only recently been recognized as a major contributor to air pollution in Switzerland and in other European countries. A source apportionment method using the aethalometer light absorption parameters was applied to five winter campaigns at three sites in Switzerland: a village with high wood combustion activity in winter, an urban background site and a highway site. The particulate mass from traffic (PMtraffic) and wood burning (PMwb) emissions obtained with this model compared fairly well with results from the 14C source apportionment method. PMwb from the model was also compared to well known wood smoke markers such as anhydrosugars (levoglucosan and mannosan) and fine mode potassium, as well as to a marker recently suggested from the Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer (mass fragment m/z 60). Additionally the anhydrosugars were compared to the 14C results and were shown to be comparable to literature values from wood burning emission studies using different types of wood (hardwood, softwood). The levoglucosan to PMwb ratios varied much more strongly between the different campaigns (4–13%) compared to mannosan to PMwb with a range of 1–1.5%. Possible uncertainty aspects for the various methods and markers are discussed.