903 resultados para Predicting model
Resumo:
A Simulink Matlab control system of a heavy vehicle suspension has been developed. The aim of the exercise presented in this paper was to develop a Simulink Matlab control system of a heavy vehicle suspension. The objective facilitated by this outcome was the use of a working model of a heavy vehicle (HV) suspension that could be used for future research. A working computer model is easier and cheaper to re-configure than a HV axle group installed on a truck; it presents less risk should something go wrong and allows more scope for variation and sensitivity analysis before embarking on further "real-world" testing. Empirical data recorded as the input and output signals of a heavy vehicle (HV) suspension were used to develop the parameters for computer simulation of a linear time invariant system described by a second-order differential equation of the form: (i.e. a "2nd-order" system). Using the empirical data as an input to the computer model allowed validation of its output compared with the empirical data. The errors ranged from less than 1% to approximately 3% for any parameter, when comparing like-for-like inputs and outputs. The model is presented along with the results of the validation. This model will be used in future research in the QUT/Main Roads project Heavy vehicle suspensions – testing and analysis, particularly so for a theoretical model of a multi-axle HV suspension with varying values of dynamic load sharing. Allowance will need to be made for the errors noted when using the computer models in this future work.
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Freeways are divided roadways designed to facilitate the uninterrupted movement of motor vehicles. However, many freeways now experience demand flows in excess of capacity, leading to recurrent congestion. The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1994) uses empirical macroscopic relationships between speed, flow and density to quantify freeway operations and performance. Capacity may be predicted as the maximum uncongested flow achievable. Although they are effective tools for design and analysis, macroscopic models lack an understanding of the nature of processes taking place in the system. Szwed and Smith (1972, 1974) and Makigami and Matsuo (1990) have shown that microscopic modelling is also applicable to freeway operations. Such models facilitate an understanding of the processes whilst providing for the assessment of performance, through measures of capacity and delay. However, these models are limited to only a few circumstances. The aim of this study was to produce more comprehensive and practical microscopic models. These models were required to accurately portray the mechanisms of freeway operations at the specific locations under consideration. The models needed to be able to be calibrated using data acquired at these locations. The output of the models needed to be able to be validated with data acquired at these sites. Therefore, the outputs should be truly descriptive of the performance of the facility. A theoretical basis needed to underlie the form of these models, rather than empiricism, which is the case for the macroscopic models currently used. And the models needed to be adaptable to variable operating conditions, so that they may be applied, where possible, to other similar systems and facilities. It was not possible to produce a stand-alone model which is applicable to all facilities and locations, in this single study, however the scene has been set for the application of the models to a much broader range of operating conditions. Opportunities for further development of the models were identified, and procedures provided for the calibration and validation of the models to a wide range of conditions. The models developed, do however, have limitations in their applicability. Only uncongested operations were studied and represented. Driver behaviour in Brisbane was applied to the models. Different mechanisms are likely in other locations due to variability in road rules and driving cultures. Not all manoeuvres evident were modelled. Some unusual manoeuvres were considered unwarranted to model. However the models developed contain the principal processes of freeway operations, merging and lane changing. Gap acceptance theory was applied to these critical operations to assess freeway performance. Gap acceptance theory was found to be applicable to merging, however the major stream, the kerb lane traffic, exercises only a limited priority over the minor stream, the on-ramp traffic. Theory was established to account for this activity. Kerb lane drivers were also found to change to the median lane where possible, to assist coincident mergers. The net limited priority model accounts for this by predicting a reduced major stream flow rate, which excludes lane changers. Cowan's M3 model as calibrated for both streams. On-ramp and total upstream flow are required as input. Relationships between proportion of headways greater than 1 s and flow differed for on-ramps where traffic leaves signalised intersections and unsignalised intersections. Constant departure onramp metering was also modelled. Minimum follow-on times of 1 to 1.2 s were calibrated. Critical gaps were shown to lie between the minimum follow-on time, and the sum of the minimum follow-on time and the 1 s minimum headway. Limited priority capacity and other boundary relationships were established by Troutbeck (1995). The minimum average minor stream delay and corresponding proportion of drivers delayed were quantified theoretically in this study. A simulation model was constructed to predict intermediate minor and major stream delays across all minor and major stream flows. Pseudo-empirical relationships were established to predict average delays. Major stream average delays are limited to 0.5 s, insignificant compared with minor stream delay, which reach infinity at capacity. Minor stream delays were shown to be less when unsignalised intersections are located upstream of on-ramps than signalised intersections, and less still when ramp metering is installed. Smaller delays correspond to improved merge area performance. A more tangible performance measure, the distribution of distances required to merge, was established by including design speeds. This distribution can be measured to validate the model. Merging probabilities can be predicted for given taper lengths, a most useful performance measure. This model was also shown to be applicable to lane changing. Tolerable limits to merging probabilities require calibration. From these, practical capacities can be estimated. Further calibration is required of traffic inputs, critical gap and minimum follow-on time, for both merging and lane changing. A general relationship to predict proportion of drivers delayed requires development. These models can then be used to complement existing macroscopic models to assess performance, and provide further insight into the nature of operations.
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BACKGROUND: Grafting of autologous hyaline cartilage and bone for articular cartilage repair is a well-accepted technique. Although encouraging midterm clinical results have been reported, no information on the mechanical competence of the transplanted joint surface is available. HYPOTHESIS: The mechanical competence of osteochondral autografts is maintained after transplantation. STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. METHODS: Osteochondral defects were filled with autografts (7.45 mm in diameter) in one femoral condyle in 12 mature sheep. The ipsilateral femoral condyle served as the donor site, and the resulting defect (8.3 mm in diameter) was left empty. The repair response was examined after 3 and 6 months with mechanical and histologic assessment and histomorphometric techniques. RESULTS: Good surface congruity and plug placement was achieved. The Young modulus of the grafted cartilage significantly dropped to 57.5% of healthy tissue after 3 months (P < .05) but then recovered to 82.2% after 6 months. The aggregate and dynamic moduli behaved similarly. The graft edges showed fibrillation and, in some cases (4 of 6), hypercellularity and chondrocyte clustering. Subchondral bone sclerosis was observed in 8 of 12 cases, and the amount of mineralized bone in the graft area increased from 40% to 61%. CONCLUSIONS: The mechanical quality of transplanted cartilage varies considerably over a short period of time, potentially reflecting both degenerative and regenerative processes, while histologically signs of both cartilage and bone degeneration occur. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Both the mechanically degenerative and restorative processes illustrate the complex progression of regeneration after osteochondral transplantation. The histologic evidence raises doubts as to the long-term durability of the osteochondral repair.
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The formation of new blood vessels is a prerequisite for bone healing. CYR61 (CCN1), an extracellular matrix-associated signaling protein, is a potent stimulator of angiogenesis and mesenchymal stem cell expansion and differentiation. A recent study showed that CYR61 is expressed during fracture healing and suggested that CYR61 plays a significant role in cartilage and bone formation. The hypothesis of the present study was that decreased fixation stability, which leads to a delay in healing, would lead to reduced CYR61 protein expression in fracture callus. The aim of the study was to quantitatively analyze CYR61 protein expression, vascularization, and tissue differentiation in the osteotomy gap and relate to the mechanical fixation stability during the course of healing. A mid-shaft osteotomy of the tibia was performed in two groups of sheep and stabilized with either a rigid or semirigid external fixator, each allowing different amounts of interfragmentary movement. The sheep were sacrificed at 2, 3, 6, and 9 weeks postoperatively. The tibiae were tested biomechanically and histological sections from the callus were analyzed immunohistochemically with regard to CYR61 protein expression and vascularization. Expression of CYR61 protein was upregulated at the early phase of fracture healing (2 weeks), decreasing over the healing time. Decreased fixation stability was associated with a reduced upregulation of the CYR61 protein expression and a reduced vascularization at 2 weeks leading to a slower healing. The maximum cartilage callus fraction in both groups was reached at 3 weeks. However, the semirigid fixator group showed a significantly lower CYR61 immunoreactivity in cartilage than the rigid fixator group at this time point. The fraction of cartilage in the semirigid fixator group was not replaced by bone as quickly as in the rigid fixator group leading to an inferior histological and mechanical callus quality at 6 weeks and therefore to a slower healing. The results supply further evidence that CYR61 may serve as an important regulator of bone healing.
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Although player enjoyment is central to computer games, there is currently no accepted model of player enjoyment in games. There are many heuristics in the literature, based on elements such as the game interface, mechanics, gameplay, and narrative. However, there is a need to integrate these heuristics into a validated model that can be used to design, evaluate, and understand enjoyment in games. We have drawn together the various heuristics into a concise model of enjoyment in games that is structured by flow. Flow, a widely accepted model of enjoyment, includes eight elements that, we found, encompass the various heuristics from the literature. Our new model, GameFlow, consists of eight elements -- concentration, challenge, skills, control, clear goals, feedback, immersion, and social interaction. Each element includes a set of criteria for achieving enjoyment in games. An initial investigation and validation of the GameFlow model was carried out by conducting expert reviews of two real-time strategy games, one high-rating and one low-rating, using the GameFlow criteria. The result was a deeper understanding of enjoyment in real-time strategy games and the identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the GameFlow model as an evaluation tool. The GameFlow criteria were able to successfully distinguish between the high-rated and low-rated games and identify why one succeeded and the other failed. We concluded that the GameFlow model can be used in its current form to review games; further work will provide tools for designing and evaluating enjoyment in games.
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In order to achieve meaningful reductions in individual ecological footprints, individuals must dramatically alter their day to day behaviours. Effective interventions will need to be evidence based and there is a necessity for the rapid transfer or communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. A number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being and it is becoming clear that the most practical pathway to achieving this mission is through interdisciplinary collaboration. This paper argues that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate research that results in the rapid transfer of findings into policy and practice. The application of this approach is described in relation to the Green Living project which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in consultation with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay (Queensland, Australia). The Green Living survey explored specific beliefs which included attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as a number of other constructs such as environmental concern and altruism. This research has two beneficial outcomes. First, it will inform a practical model for predicting sustainable living behaviours and a number of local councils have already expressed an interest in making use of the results as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Second, it provides an example of how a collaborative interdisciplinary project can provide a more comprehensive approach to research than can be accomplished by a single disciplinary project.
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A distinctive feature of Chinese test is that a Chinese document is a sequence of Chinese with no space or boundary between Chinese words. This feature makes Chinese information retrieval more difficult since a retrieved document which contains the query term as a sequence of Chinese characters may not be really relevant to the query since the query term (as a sequence Chinese characters) may not be a valid Chinese word in that documents. On the other hand, a document that is actually relevant may not be retrieved because it does not contain the query sequence but contains other relevant words. In this research, we propose a hybrid Chinese information retrieval model by incorporating word-based techniques with the traditional character-based techniques. The aim of this approach is to investigate the influence of Chinese segmentation on the performance of Chinese information retrieval. Two ranking methods are proposed to rank retrieved documents based on the relevancy to the query calculated by combining character-based ranking and word-based ranking. Our experimental results show that Chinese segmentation can improve the performance of Chinese information retrieval, but the improvement is not significant if it incorporates only Chinese segmentation with the traditional character-based approach.
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Australia’s efforts to transition to a low-emissions economy have stagnated following the successive defeats of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This failure should not, however, be regarded as the end of Australia’s efforts to make this transition. In fact, the opportunity now exists for Australia to refine its existing arrangements to enable this transition to occur more effectively. The starting point for this analysis is the legal arrangements applying to the electricity generation sector, which is the largest sectoral emitter of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. Without an effective strategy to mitigate this sector’s contribution to anthropogenic climate change, it is unlikely that Australia will be able to transition towards a low-emissions economy. It is on this basis that this article assesses the dominant national legal arrangement – the Renewable Energy Target – underpinning the electricity generation sector's efforts to become a low-emissions sector.
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Genetic variation is the resource animal breeders exploit in stock improvement programs. Both the process of selection and husbandry practices employed in aquaculture will erode genetic variation levels overtime, hence the critical resource can be lost and this may compromise future genetic gains in breeding programs. The amount of genetic variation in five lines of Sydney Rock Oyster (SRO) that had been selected for QX (Queensland unknown) disease resistance were examined and compared with that in a wild reference population using seven specific SRO microsatellite loci. The five selected lines had significantly lower levels of genetic diversity than did the wild reference population with allelic diversity declining approximately 80%, but impacts on heterozygosity per locus were less severe. Significant deficiencies in heterozygotes were detected at six of the seven loci in both mass selected lines and the wild reference population. Against this trend however, a significant excess of heterozygotes was recorded at three loci Sgo9, Sgo14 and Sgo21 in three QX disease resistant lines (#2, #5 and #13). All populations were significantly genetic differentiated from each other based on pairwise FST values. A neighbour joining tree based on DA genetic distances showed a clear separation between all culture and wild populations. Results of this study show clearly, that the impacts of the stock improvement program for SRO has significantly eroded natural levels of genetic variation in the culture lines. This could compromise long-term genetic gains and affect sustainability of the SRO breeding program over the long-term.
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The Texas Transportation Commission (“the Commission”) is responsible for planning and making policies for the location, construction, and maintenance of a comprehensive system of highways and public roads in Texas. In order for the Commission to carry out its legislative mandate, the Texas Constitution requires that most revenue generated by motor vehicle registration fees and motor fuel taxes be used for constructing and maintaining public roadways and other designated purposes. The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) assists the Commission in executing state transportation policy. It is the responsibility of the legislature to appropriate money for TxDOT’s operation and maintenance expenses. All money authorized to be appropriated for TxDOT’s operations must come from the State Highway Fund (also known as Fund 6, Fund 006, or Fund 0006). The Commission can then use the balance in the fund to fulfill its responsibilities. However, the value of the revenue received in Fund 6 is not keeping pace with growing demand for transportation infrastructure in Texas. Additionally, diversion of revenue to nontransportation uses now exceeds $600 million per year. As shown in Figure 1.1, revenues and expenditures of the State Highway Fund per vehicle mile traveled (VMT) in Texas have remained almost flat since 1993. In the meantime, construction cost inflation has gone up more than 100%, effectively halving the value of expenditure.
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This research report documents work conducted by the Center for Transportation (CTR) at The University of Texas at Austin in analyzing the Joint Analysis using the Combined Knowledge (J.A.C.K.) program. This program was developed by the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) to make projections of revenues and expenditures. This research effort was to span from September 2008 to August 2009, but the bulk of the work was completed and presented by December 2008. J.A.C.K. was subsequently renamed TRENDS, but for consistency with the scope of work, the original name is used throughout this report.
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Effective use of information and communication technologies (ICT) is necessary for delivering efficiency and improved project delivery in the construction industry. Convincing clients or contracting organisations to embrace ICT is a difficult task, there are few templates of an ICT business model for the industry to use. ICT application in the construction industry is relatively low compared to automotive and aerospace industries. The National Museum of Australia project provides a unique opportunity for investigating and reporting on this deficiency in publicly available knowledge. Concentrates on the business model content and objectives, briefly indicates the evaluation framework that was used to evaluate ICT effectiveness.
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Competitive markets are increasingly driving new initiatives for shorter cycle times resulting in increased overlapping of project phases. This, in turn, necessitates improving the interfaces between the different phases to be overlapped (integrated), thus allowing transfer of processes, information and knowledge from one individual or team to another. This transfer between phases, within and between projects, is one of the basic challenges to the philosophy of project management. To make the process transfer more transparent with minimal loss of momentum and project knowledge, this paper draws upon Total Quality Management (TQM) and Business Process Re-engineering (BPR) philosophies to develop a Best Practice Model for managing project phase integration. The paper presents the rationale behind the model development and outlines its two key parts; (1) Strategic Framework and (2) Implementation Plan. Key components of both the Strategic Framework and the Implementation Plan are presented and discussed.
Resumo:
How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.
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A Geant4 based simulation tool has been developed to perform Monte Carlo modelling of a 6 MV VarianTM iX clinac. The computer aided design interface of Geant4 was used to accurately model the LINAC components, including the Millenium multi-leaf collimators (MLCs). The simulation tool was verified via simulation of standard commissioning dosimetry data acquired with an ionisation chamber in a water phantom. Verification of the MLC model was achieved by simulation of leaf leakage measurements performed using GafchromicTM film in a solid water phantom. An absolute dose calibration capability was added by including a virtual monitor chamber into the simulation. Furthermore, a DICOM-RT interface was integrated with the application to allow the simulation of treatment plans in radiotherapy. The ability of the simulation tool to accurately model leaf movements and doses at each control point was verified by simulation of a widely used intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA) technique, the chair test.