Hells Angels, positionnement stratégique et réussite criminelle : analyse des transactions monétaires d’un réseau illicite de distribution de drogues

Les travaux traditionnels sur le crime organisé indiquent que le statut d’un individu déterminerait son succès individuel. Des recherches alternatives sur les réseaux des organisations criminelles et de la réussite criminelle indiquent que le rang est moins important que la croyance générale et que les mesures de positionnement stratégique de réseau sont plus susceptibles de déterminer le succès criminel. Ce mémoire étudie les variations des gains criminels au sein de l’organisation de distribution illicite de stupéfiants des Hells Angels. Son objectif est de distinguer, à l’aide de données de comptabilité autorévélées, les éléments influençant ces différences dans le succès criminel en fonction du positionnement plus stratégique ou vulnérable d’un individu au sein de son réseau. Les résultats révèlent des moyennes de volume d’argent transigé beaucoup plus élevées que ce qui est généralement recensé. La distribution de ces capitaux est largement inégale. La disparité des chances liées à l’association criminelle se retrouve aussi dans la polarisation entre les individus fortement privilégiés et les autres qui ont une capacité de positionnement médiocre. Le croisement entre les positions et l’inégalité des gains présente que le positionnement de l’individu dans son réseau est un meilleur prédicteur de réussite criminelle que toute autre variable contextuelle ou de rang. Enfin et surtout, en contradiction avec la littérature, le fait d’atteindre de haut rang hiérarchique nuirait au succès criminel, les résultats montrant que cet état réduit l’accès au crédit, réduit les quantités de drogue par transaction et augmente le prix de la drogue à l’unité.

Bootstrap for panel data models with an application to the evaluation of public policies

Le but de cette thèse est d étendre la théorie du bootstrap aux modèles de données de panel. Les données de panel s obtiennent en observant plusieurs unités statistiques sur plusieurs périodes de temps. Leur double dimension individuelle et temporelle permet de contrôler l 'hétérogénéité non observable entre individus et entre les périodes de temps et donc de faire des études plus riches que les séries chronologiques ou les données en coupe instantanée. L 'avantage du bootstrap est de permettre d obtenir une inférence plus précise que celle avec la théorie asymptotique classique ou une inférence impossible en cas de paramètre de nuisance. La méthode consiste à tirer des échantillons aléatoires qui ressemblent le plus possible à l échantillon d analyse. L 'objet statitstique d intérêt est estimé sur chacun de ses échantillons aléatoires et on utilise l ensemble des valeurs estimées pour faire de l inférence. Il existe dans la littérature certaines application du bootstrap aux données de panels sans justi cation théorique rigoureuse ou sous de fortes hypothèses. Cette thèse propose une méthode de bootstrap plus appropriée aux données de panels. Les trois chapitres analysent sa validité et son application. Le premier chapitre postule un modèle simple avec un seul paramètre et s 'attaque aux propriétés théoriques de l estimateur de la moyenne. Nous montrons que le double rééchantillonnage que nous proposons et qui tient compte à la fois de la dimension individuelle et la dimension temporelle est valide avec ces modèles. Le rééchantillonnage seulement dans la dimension individuelle n est pas valide en présence d hétérogénéité temporelle. Le ré-échantillonnage dans la dimension temporelle n est pas valide en présence d'hétérogénéité individuelle. Le deuxième chapitre étend le précédent au modèle panel de régression. linéaire. Trois types de régresseurs sont considérés : les caractéristiques individuelles, les caractéristiques temporelles et les régresseurs qui évoluent dans le temps et par individu. En utilisant un modèle à erreurs composées doubles, l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires et la méthode de bootstrap des résidus, on montre que le rééchantillonnage dans la seule dimension individuelle est valide pour l'inférence sur les coe¢ cients associés aux régresseurs qui changent uniquement par individu. Le rééchantillonnage dans la dimen- sion temporelle est valide seulement pour le sous vecteur des paramètres associés aux régresseurs qui évoluent uniquement dans le temps. Le double rééchantillonnage est quand à lui est valide pour faire de l inférence pour tout le vecteur des paramètres. Le troisième chapitre re-examine l exercice de l estimateur de différence en di¤érence de Bertrand, Duflo et Mullainathan (2004). Cet estimateur est couramment utilisé dans la littérature pour évaluer l impact de certaines poli- tiques publiques. L exercice empirique utilise des données de panel provenant du Current Population Survey sur le salaire des femmes dans les 50 états des Etats-Unis d Amérique de 1979 à 1999. Des variables de pseudo-interventions publiques au niveau des états sont générées et on s attend à ce que les tests arrivent à la conclusion qu il n y a pas d e¤et de ces politiques placebos sur le salaire des femmes. Bertrand, Du o et Mullainathan (2004) montre que la non-prise en compte de l hétérogénéité et de la dépendance temporelle entraîne d importantes distorsions de niveau de test lorsqu'on évalue l'impact de politiques publiques en utilisant des données de panel. Une des solutions préconisées est d utiliser la méthode de bootstrap. La méthode de double ré-échantillonnage développée dans cette thèse permet de corriger le problème de niveau de test et donc d'évaluer correctement l'impact des politiques publiques.

Analyse de la distribution des génotypes du virus du papillome humain dans les néoplasies anogénitales et de la tête et du cou en Afrique comparativement au reste du monde

Le virus du papillome humain (HPV) est l’infection sexuellement transmise la plus fréquente au monde. Plusieurs études ont établi son implication dans l’étiologie de pratiquement tous les cancers du col de l’utérus, une maladie qui constitue un problème de santé majeur dans les pays pauvres. Le HPV est également responsable de 90% des cancers de l’anus, 40-50% des cancers du pénis, de la vulve et du vagin, et 30% des cancers de la tête et du cou. L’objectif général de cette thèse est de combler les lacunes relatives aux connaissances sur la distribution génotypique du HPV dans les lésions néoplasiques cervicales utérines et de la tête et du cou, plus particulièrement en Afrique. Les objectifs spécifiques sont les suivants: 1) analyser la distribution génotypique du HPV dans les cancers du col de l’utérus et faire une analyse comparative de cette distribution dans cinq pays africains en fonction de la prévalence du VIH; 2) évaluer la présence du HPV dans les cancers de la tête et du cou au Sénégal; 3) faire une revue de la littérature et une méta-analyse sur la distribution du HPV dans les cancers de la tête et du cou dans toutes les régions du monde. Pour le premier et le second objectifs, qui découlent d’un large projet international coordonné par l’Institut Catalan d’Oncologie pour l’Organisation Mondiale de la Santé (OMS), une étude transversale multicentrique a été menée au Mali et au Sénégal pour collecter des blocs de paraffine de patientes diagnostiquées entre 2001 et 2010 du cancer invasif du col et des cancers de la tête et du cou. Pour le troisième objectif, une revue exhaustive de la littérature a permis d’identifier tous les articles qui ont été publiés sur les cancers de la tête et du cou dans tous les pays du monde et d’effectuer une méta-analyse sur la prévalence de l’ADN du HPV selon le site du cancer et la région géographique. Notre analyse montre que les principaux types de HPV ciblés dans les vaccins prophylactiques (HPV16/18) représentent la majorité des types de HPV détectés dans le cancer invasif du col de l’utérus en Afrique subsaharienne. Par contre, le HPV45 vient au second rang dans certains pays d’Afrique, dont le Mali et le Sénégal. Nos données suggèrent également que le VIH aurait un rôle dans la contribution relative du HPV18 et HPV45 dans le développement du cancer du col de l’utérus. Au Sénégal, notre étude montre que la prévalence du HPV dans les cancers de la tête et du cou est très faible et ne semble pas jouer un rôle important dans l’oncogenèse. Finalement, la méta-analyse a mesuré la prévalence des HPV dans les cancers de la cavité orale, de l’oropharynx, du larynx et de l’hypopharynx, et confirme l’importante contribution relative du HPV16 dans ces cancers. Globalement, cette thèse permet de mieux comprendre l’impact potentiel des vaccins prophylactiques sur l’incidence des cancers associés au HPV.

Investigations on the Distribution Characteristics of Heavy Metals in Squid (Loligo spp.) in Relation to Levels in Food Fishes from the West Coast of India with a Perspective on Seafood Safety

The present study entitled "Investigations on the Distribution Characteristics of Heavy Metals in Squid (Loligo spp.) in Relation to Levels in Food Fishes from the West Coast of India with a Perspective on Seafood Safety"attempts to establish the base line data on metal levels in squids along the west coast of India. The study is of great relevance in the present context when utmost importance is being given for producing wholesome seafoods especially in the export market with a perspective on seafood safety.The thesis presents a comprehensive account of the base line data on important heavy metals, viz., Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn Cr and Ni in the edible and non-edible body components of the most abundant Loligo species, viz., L. duvauceli caught along the west coast of India.

Regression models for bivariate survival data

Multivariate lifetime data arise in various forms including recurrent event data when individuals are followed to observe the sequence of occurrences of a certain type of event; correlated lifetime when an individual is followed for the occurrence of two or more types of events, or when distinct individuals have dependent event times. In most studies there are covariates such as treatments, group indicators, individual characteristics, or environmental conditions, whose relationship to lifetime is of interest. This leads to a consideration of regression models.The well known Cox proportional hazards model and its variations, using the marginal hazard functions employed for the analysis of multivariate survival data in literature are not sufficient to explain the complete dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector. Motivated by this, in Chapter 2, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model using vector hazard function of Johnson and Kotz (1975), in which the covariates under study have different effect on two components of the vector hazard function. The proposed model is useful in real life situations to study the dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector . The well known partial likelihood approach is used for the estimation of parameter vectors. We then introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for gap times of recurrent events in Chapter 3. The model incorporates both marginal and joint dependence of the distribution of gap times on the covariate vector . In many fields of application, mean residual life function is considered superior concept than the hazard function. Motivated by this, in Chapter 4, we considered a new semi-parametric model, bivariate proportional mean residual life time model, to assess the relationship between mean residual life and covariates for gap time of recurrent events. The counting process approach is used for the inference procedures of the gap time of recurrent events. In many survival studies, the distribution of lifetime may depend on the distribution of censoring time. In Chapter 5, we introduced a proportional hazards model for duration times and developed inference procedures under dependent (informative) censoring. In Chapter 6, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for competing risks data under right censoring. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of the parameters of different models developed in previous chapters, were studied. The proposed models were applied to various real life situations.

A Study on Aerosol Transport Dynamics over the Indian Landmass and the Adjoining Oceanic Regions Using Satellite Data

The present study brings out the influence of transport dynamics on the aerosol distribution over the Indian region at a few selected geographically distinct locations. Over the Bay of Bengal the dominant pathway of aerosol transport during the pre-monsoon period is through higher altitudes (~ 3 km); directed from the Indian main land. In contrast, the aerosol pathways over the Arabian Sea during the same period are quite complex. They are directed from geographically different environments around the ocean through different altitudes. However in general, the day-to-day variability of AOD at both these regions is significantly influenced by the features of atmospheric circulation especially, the wind convergence at higher altitudes (around 3 km). Over the Ganga Basin during the winter period, the wind convergence at lower altitudes (< I km) govems the shon term variations in AOD, while the mean AOD distribution at this location is mainly governed by the local anthropogenic sources.

Targeted Public Distribution System in Food Grains:Extent of Utlization by the Tribal Population in Kerala

In India, Food Security meant supply of food grains and the medium was Public Distribution System. Public Distribution System (PDS) is a rationing mechanism that entitles households to specified quantities of selected commodities at subsidized prices. The Objectives of PDS are maintaining Price Stability, rationing during times of scarcity, welfare of the poor, and keeping a check on private trade. Kerala has registered remarkable improvement in poverty reduction in general over the years among all social sections, including scheduled caste and scheduled tribe population. As part of the structural adjustment intended to reduce public expenditure, PDS has been modified as Revamped PDS (RPDS) during 1992 and later on as Targeted PDS (TPDS) in 1997, intended to target households on the basis of income criterion, classifying people as Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Above Poverty Line (APL). TPDS provides 25Kg. of food gra.ins through the Fair Price Shops per month @ Rs.3/- per Kg. of rice/ wheat to the BPL category and @Rs.8.90 and Rs.6.7O for rice and wheat respectively to the APL category of people. Since TPDS is intended to target the poor people, the subsidy spent by the government for the scheme should be beneficial to the poor people and naturally they should utilize the benefits by purchasing the food grains allotted under the scheme. Several studies have shown that there is underutilization of the allotments under TPDS. Therefore, the extent of utilization of TPDS in food grains, how and why remains as a major hurdle, in improving the structure and system of PDS. Livelihood of the tribal population being under threat due to increasing degradation of the resources, the targeting system ought to be effective among the tribal population. Therefore, performance of the TPDS in food grains, in terms of the utilization by the tribal population in Kerala, impact thereof and the factors, if any, affecting proper utilization were considered as the research problem in this study. The study concentrated on the pattern of consumption of food grains by the tribal people, whether their hunger needs are met by distribution of food grains through the TPDS, extent to which TPDS in food grains reduce their share of expenditure on food in the total household expenditure, and the factors affecting the utilization of the TPDS in food grains by the tribal population. Going through the literature, it has been noted that only few studies concentrated on the utilization of TPDS in food grains among the tribal population in Kerala.The Research Design used in this study is descriptive in nature, but exploratory in some aspects. Idukki, Palakkad and Wayanad have more than 60% of the population of the tribals in the state. Within the three districts mentioned above, 14 villages with scheduled tribe concentration were selected for the study. 95 tribal colonies were selected from among the various tribal settlements. Collection of primary data was made from 1231 households with in the above tribal colonies. Analysis of data on the socio-economic factors of the tribal people, pattern of food consumption, extent of reduction in the share of expenditure on food among the household expenditure of the tribal people and the impact of TPDS on the tribal families etc. and testing of hypotheses to find out the relation/association of each of the six variables, using the data on BPL and APL categories of households separately have resulted in findings such as six percent of the tribal families do not have Ration Cards, average per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people utilizing TPDS meets 62% of their minimum requirement, whereas the per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people is higher than the national average per capita consumption, 63% deficiency in food grains may be felt by tribal people in general, if TPDS is withdrawn, and the deficit for BPL tribal people may be 82%, TPDS facilitates a reduction of 9.71% in the food expenditure among the total household expenditure of the tribal people in general, share of food to non-food among BPL category of tribals is 55:45 and 40:60 among the APL, Variables, viz. household income, number of members in the family and distance of FPS from tribal settlements etc. have influence on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the Fair Price Shops, and there is influence of household income and distance of FPS from tribal settlements on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the open market. Rationing with differential pricing on phased allotments, rectification of errors in targeting, anomalies in norms and procedures for classifying tribal people as BPL/APL, exclusive Income Generation for tribal population, paddy cultivation in the landholdings possessed by the tribal people, special drive for allotment of Ration Cards to the tribal people, especially those belonging to the BPL category, Mobile Fair Price Shops in tribal settlements, ensure quality of the food grains distributed through the TPDS, distribution of wheat flour in packed condition instead of wheat through the Fair Price Shops are recommended to address the shortcomings and weaknesses of the TPDS vis-avis the tribal population in Kerala.

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

‘Reliability Concepts in Quantile-based Analysis of Lifetime Data

Reliability analysis is a well established branch of statistics that deals with the statistical study of different aspects of lifetimes of a system of components. As we pointed out earlier that major part of the theory and applications in connection with reliability analysis were discussed based on the measures in terms of distribution function. In the beginning chapters of the thesis, we have described some attractive features of quantile functions and the relevance of its use in reliability analysis. Motivated by the works of Parzen (1979), Freimer et al. (1988) and Gilchrist (2000), who indicated the scope of quantile functions in reliability analysis and as a follow up of the systematic study in this connection by Nair and Sankaran (2009), in the present work we tried to extend their ideas to develop necessary theoretical framework for lifetime data analysis. In Chapter 1, we have given the relevance and scope of the study and a brief outline of the work we have carried out. Chapter 2 of this thesis is devoted to the presentation of various concepts and their brief reviews, which were useful for the discussions in the subsequent chapters .In the introduction of Chapter 4, we have pointed out the role of ageing concepts in reliability analysis and in identifying life distributions .In Chapter 6, we have studied the first two L-moments of residual life and their relevance in various applications of reliability analysis. We have shown that the first L-moment of residual function is equivalent to the vitality function, which have been widely discussed in the literature .In Chapter 7, we have defined percentile residual life in reversed time (RPRL) and derived its relationship with reversed hazard rate (RHR). We have discussed the characterization problem of RPRL and demonstrated with an example that the RPRL for given does not determine the distribution uniquely

Bionomics, Resource Characteristics And Distribution Of The Threatened Freshwater Fishes Of Kerala

The previous faunistic studies were concentrated.on the taxonomical and zoogeo— graphical aspects. These studies contributed to many new additions to the fish fauna of Kerala meanwhile many species described earlier are reported missing in recent years. Many fish species were collected only once or twice by scientists. Detailed information on distribution, habitat, feeding habits, reproduction, population size, etc. are available only with regard to a very few fish species. A meaningful assessment on the biodiversity status of the majority of freshwater fishes cannot be done for want of sufficient data base and therefore, no suitable conservation and management programmes are forthcoming for the protection and preservation of the unique fish germplasm resources of Kerala. The present study was conceptualised and undertaken mostly aiming at bridging these gaps by generating an authentic data base on the distribution, resource characteristics and bionomics of the threatened fishes inhabiting the rivers of Kerala. Osteobrama bakeri (Day) is an endemic fish having a very highly restricted and fragmented distribution in Periyar, Chalakudy, Kabini, Kallada and Meenachil rivers of Kerala. This belongs to vulnerable category and is locally known as Mullanpaval which is valued as food fish. Besides, due to its vibrant and attractive colouration and easiness for domestication, it has great potential for being propagated as an ornamental fish. Hitherto, no information is available on the bionomics and resource characteristics of this species. Studies on detailed life history traits are indispensable for fishery management, development of captive breeding technique and implementation of various conservation programmes. In the present study, a pioneer attempt is also made to investigate the life history traits, resource characteristics, proximate composition, etc. of O.baken'.

The Systematics, Distribution and Bionomics of Deep sea fishes beyond depth 200m along the South west coast of India

Reducing fishing pressure in coastal waters is the need of the day in the Indian marine fisheries sector of the country which is fast changing from a mere vocational activity to a capital intensive industry. It requires continuous monitoring of the resource exploitation through a scientifically acceptable methodology, data on production of each species stock, the number and characteristics of the fishing gears of the fleet, various biological characteristics of each stock, the impact of fishing on the environment and the role of fishery—independent on availability and abundance. Besides this, there are issues relating to capabilities in stock assessment, taxonomy research, biodiversity, conservation and fisheries management. Generation of reliable data base over a fixed time frame, their analysis and interpretation are necessary before drawing conclusions on the stock size, maximum sustainable yield, maximum economic yield and to further implement various fishing regulatory measures. India being a signatory to several treaties and conventions, is obliged to carry out assessments of the exploited stocks and manage them at sustainable levels. Besides, the nation is bound by its obligation of protein food security to people and livelihood security to those engaged in marine fishing related activities. Also, there are regional variabilities in fishing technology and fishery resources. All these make it mandatory for India to continue and strengthen its marine capture fisheries research in general and deep sea fisheries in particular. Against this background, an attempt is made to strengthen the deep sea fish biodiversity and also to generate data on the distribution, abundance, catch per unit effort of fishery resources available beyond 200 m in the EEZ of southwest coast ofIndia and also unravel some of the aspects of life history traits of potentially important non conventional fish species inhabiting in the depth beyond 200 m. This study was carried out as part of the Project on Stock Assessment and Biology of Deep Sea Fishes of Indian EEZ (MoES, Govt. of India).

“Population Characteristics, Fishery and Post larval distribution of Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man) and M. idella (Hilgendorf) of Vembanad lake”

Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man) and M.ide77a (Hilgendorf) form two commercially important Palaemonid prawns of the Vembanad lake (9 28' and 10 10’ N and 76 13' and 76 31' E). Both of them were known to have contributed to a very lucrative fishery during the sixties, however, in recent years these natural resources have badly depleted owing to the impact of many man made alterations brought about in the ecosystem such as habitat reduction, physical obstruction imposed in the migratory pathway of these species, pollution hazards, etc,. Changed environmental conditions and increased fishing pressures caused persistent alterations in the stock size of these prawns during the past so many years, however, no serious attempt was made to monitor the stock size from time to time and also to bring out the resource characteristics. Though, the morphotypic differentiation in grow out male population of M.rosenbergii has been documented, no similar studies were conducted with regard to natural male and female population. Based on the data collected during fishery cruise surveys conducted in Vembanad lake from March '94 to February '96, population characteristics. postlarval distribution, fishery and population dynamics of M.rosenbergii and M.ide77a of the lake were studied in detail.

Studies on the horizontal and vertical distribution of clouds and their impact on energetics of the Atmosphere over the Indian Region

Motivation for the present study is to improve the scienti c understanding on the prominent gap areas in the average three-dimensional distribution of clouds and their impact on the energetics of the earth-atmosphere system. This study is focused on the Indian subcontinent and the surrounding oceans bound within the latitude-longitude bands of 30 S to 30 N and 30 E to 110 E. Main objectives of this study are to : (i) estimate the monthly and seasonal mean vertical distributions of clouds and their spatial variations (which provide the monthly and seasonal mean 3-dimensional distributions of clouds) using multi-year satellite data and investigate their association with the general circulation of the atmosphere, (ii) investigate the characteristics of the `pool of inhibited cloudiness' that appear over the southwest Bay of Bengal during the Asian summer monsoon season (revealed by the 3-dimensional distribution of clouds) and identify the potential mechanisms for its genesis, (iii) investigate the role of SST and atmospheric thermo-dynamical parameters in regulating the vertical development and distribution of clouds, (iv) investigate the vertical distribution of tropical cirrus clouds and their descending nature using lidar observations at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5 N, 77 E), a tropical coastal station at the southwest Peninsular India, and (v) assessment of the impact of clouds on the energetics of the earth-atmosphere system, by estimating the regional seasonal mean cloud radiative forcing at top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) and latent heating of the atmosphere by precipitating clouds using satellite data

‘Modeling and Analysis of Competing Risks Data’

there has been much research on analyzing various forms of competing risks data. Nevertheless, there are several occasions in survival studies, where the existing models and methodologies are inadequate for the analysis competing risks data. ldentifiabilty problem and various types of and censoring induce more complications in the analysis of competing risks data than in classical survival analysis. Parametric models are not adequate for the analysis of competing risks data since the assumptions about the underlying lifetime distributions may not hold well. Motivated by this, in the present study. we develop some new inference procedures, which are completely distribution free for the analysis of competing risks data.

Predicted impact of the sea-level rise at VellareColeroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu coast in India: Mainstreaming adaptation as a coastal zone management option

Low-lying coastal areas are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as they are highly prone for inundation to SLR (Sea-Level Rise). This study presents an appraisal of the impacts of SLR on the coastal natural resources and its dependent social communities in the low-lying area of VellareColeroon estuarine region of the Tamil Nadu coast, India. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from SRTM 90M (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) data, along with GIS (Geographic Information System) techniques are used to identify an area of inundation in the study site. The vulnerability of coastal areas in Vellar-Coleroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu coast to inundation was calculated based on the projected SLR scenarios of 0.5 m and 1 m. The results demonstrated that about 1570 ha of the LULC (Land use and Land cover) of the study area would be permanently inundated to 0.5 m and 2407 ha for 1 m SLR and has also resulted in the loss of three major coastal natural resources like coastal agriculture, mangroves and aquaculture. It has been identified that six hamlets of the social communities who depend on these resources are at high-risk and vulnerable to 0.5 m SLR and 12 hamlets for 1 m SLR. From the study, it has been emphasized that mainstreaming adaptation options to SLR should be embedded within a coastal zone management and planning effort, which includes all coastal natural resources (ecosystem-based adaptation), and its dependent social communities (community-based adaptation) involved through capacity building