A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Applications of Microwave Antenna Array for Wireless Power Transmission and Radar Imaging in Complex Environment

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Ecological drivers of a vector borne pathogen: distribution and abundance of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and its vector Ixodes ricinus in Scotland

Vector-borne disease emergence in recent decades has been associated with different environmental drivers including changes in habitat, hosts and climate. Lyme borreliosis is among the most important vector-borne diseases in the Northern hemisphere and is an emerging disease in Scotland. Transmitted by Ixodid tick vectors between large numbers of wild vertebrate host species, Lyme borreliosis is caused by bacteria from the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species group. Ecological studies can inform how environmental factors such as host abundance and community composition, habitat and landscape heterogeneity contribute to spatial and temporal variation in risk from B. burgdorferi s.l. In this thesis a range of approaches were used to investigate the effects of vertebrate host communities and individual host species as drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. dynamics and its tick vector Ixodes ricinus. Host species differ in reservoir competence for B. burgdorferi s.l. and as hosts for ticks. Deer are incompetent transmission hosts for B. burgdorferi s.l. but are significant hosts of all life-stages of I. ricinus. Rodents and birds are important transmission hosts of B. burgdorferi s.l. and common hosts of immature life-stages of I. ricinus. In this thesis, surveys of woodland sites revealed variable effects of deer density on B. burgdorferi prevalence, from no effect (Chapter 2) to a possible ‘dilution’ effect resulting in lower prevalence at higher deer densities (Chapter 3). An invasive species in Scotland, the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), was found to host diverse genotypes of B. burgdorferi s.l. and may act as a spill-over host for strains maintained by native host species (Chapter 4). Habitat fragmentation may alter the dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. via effects on the host community and host movements. In this thesis, there was lack of persistence of the rodent associated genospecies of B. burgdorferi s.l. within a naturally fragmented landscape (Chapter 3). Rodent host biology, particularly population cycles and dispersal ability are likely to affect pathogen persistence and recolonization in fragmented habitats. Heterogeneity in disease dynamics can occur spatially and temporally due to differences in the host community, habitat and climatic factors. Higher numbers of I. ricinus nymphs, and a higher probability of detecting a nymph infected with B. burgdorferi s.l., were found in areas with warmer climates estimated by growing degree days (Chapter 2). The ground vegetation type associated with the highest number of I. ricinus nymphs varied between studies in this thesis (Chapter 2 & 3) and does not appear to be a reliable predictor across large areas. B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence and genospecies composition was highly variable for the same sites sampled in subsequent years (Chapter 2). This suggests that dynamic variables such as reservoir host densities and deer should be measured as well as more static habitat and climatic factors to understand the drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. infection in ticks. Heterogeneity in parasite loads amongst hosts is a common finding which has implications for disease ecology and management. Using a 17-year data set for tick infestations in a wild bird community in Scotland, different effects of age and sex on tick burdens were found among four species of passerine bird (Chapter 5). There were also different rates of decline in tick burdens among bird species in response to a long term decrease in questing tick pressure over the study. Species specific patterns may be driven by differences in behaviour and immunity and highlight the importance of comparative approaches. Combining whole genome sequencing (WGS) and population genetics approaches offers a novel approach to identify ecological drivers of pathogen populations. An initial analysis of WGS from B. burgdorferi s.s. isolates sampled 16 years apart suggests that there is a signal of measurable evolution (Chapter 6). This suggests demographic analyses may be applied to understand ecological and evolutionary processes of these bacteria. This work shows how host communities, habitat and climatic factors can affect the local transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. and the potential risk of infection to humans. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pathogen dynamics poses challenges for the prediction of risk. New tools such as WGS of the pathogen (Chapter 6) and blood meal analysis techniques will add power to future studies on the ecology and evolution of B. burgdorferi s.l.

COMPREHENSIVE ELECTRICAL/OPTICAL/THERMAL CHARACTERIZATIONS OF HIGH POWER LIGHT EMITTING DIODES AND LASER DIODES

Thermal characterizations of high power light emitting diodes (LEDs) and laser diodes (LDs) are one of the most critical issues to achieve optimal performance such as center wavelength, spectrum, power efficiency, and reliability. Unique electrical/optical/thermal characterizations are proposed to analyze the complex thermal issues of high power LEDs and LDs. First, an advanced inverse approach, based on the transient junction temperature behavior, is proposed and implemented to quantify the resistance of the die-attach thermal interface (DTI) in high power LEDs. A hybrid analytical/numerical model is utilized to determine an approximate transient junction temperature behavior, which is governed predominantly by the resistance of the DTI. Then, an accurate value of the resistance of the DTI is determined inversely from the experimental data over the predetermined transient time domain using numerical modeling. Secondly, the effect of junction temperature on heat dissipation of high power LEDs is investigated. The theoretical aspect of junction temperature dependency of two major parameters – the forward voltage and the radiant flux – on heat dissipation is reviewed. Actual measurements of the heat dissipation over a wide range of junction temperatures are followed to quantify the effect of the parameters using commercially available LEDs. An empirical model of heat dissipation is proposed for applications in practice. Finally, a hybrid experimental/numerical method is proposed to predict the junction temperature distribution of a high power LD bar. A commercial water-cooled LD bar is used to present the proposed method. A unique experimental setup is developed and implemented to measure the average junction temperatures of the LD bar. After measuring the heat dissipation of the LD bar, the effective heat transfer coefficient of the cooling system is determined inversely. The characterized properties are used to predict the junction temperature distribution over the LD bar under high operating currents. The results are presented in conjunction with the wall-plug efficiency and the center wavelength shift.

Physical Design Methodologies for Low Power and Reliable 3D ICs

As the semiconductor industry struggles to maintain its momentum down the path following the Moore's Law, three dimensional integrated circuit (3D IC) technology has emerged as a promising solution to achieve higher integration density, better performance, and lower power consumption. However, despite its significant improvement in electrical performance, 3D IC presents several serious physical design challenges. In this dissertation, we investigate physical design methodologies for 3D ICs with primary focus on two areas: low power 3D clock tree design, and reliability degradation modeling and management. Clock trees are essential parts for digital system which dissipate a large amount of power due to high capacitive loads. The majority of existing 3D clock tree designs focus on minimizing the total wire length, which produces sub-optimal results for power optimization. In this dissertation, we formulate a 3D clock tree design flow which directly optimizes for clock power. Besides, we also investigate the design methodology for clock gating a 3D clock tree, which uses shutdown gates to selectively turn off unnecessary clock activities. Different from the common assumption in 2D ICs that shutdown gates are cheap thus can be applied at every clock node, shutdown gates in 3D ICs introduce additional control TSVs, which compete with clock TSVs for placement resources. We explore the design methodologies to produce the optimal allocation and placement for clock and control TSVs so that the clock power is minimized. We show that the proposed synthesis flow saves significant clock power while accounting for available TSV placement area. Vertical integration also brings new reliability challenges including TSV's electromigration (EM) and several other reliability loss mechanisms caused by TSV-induced stress. These reliability loss models involve complex inter-dependencies between electrical and thermal conditions, which have not been investigated in the past. In this dissertation we set up an electrical/thermal/reliability co-simulation framework to capture the transient of reliability loss in 3D ICs. We further derive and validate an analytical reliability objective function that can be integrated into the 3D placement design flow. The reliability aware placement scheme enables co-design and co-optimization of both the electrical and reliability property, thus improves both the circuit's performance and its lifetime. Our electrical/reliability co-design scheme avoids unnecessary design cycles or application of ad-hoc fixes that lead to sub-optimal performance. Vertical integration also enables stacking DRAM on top of CPU, providing high bandwidth and short latency. However, non-uniform voltage fluctuation and local thermal hotspot in CPU layers are coupled into DRAM layers, causing a non-uniform bit-cell leakage (thereby bit flip) distribution. We propose a performance-power-resilience simulation framework to capture DRAM soft error in 3D multi-core CPU systems. In addition, a dynamic resilience management (DRM) scheme is investigated, which adaptively tunes CPU's operating points to adjust DRAM's voltage noise and thermal condition during runtime. The DRM uses dynamic frequency scaling to achieve a resilience borrow-in strategy, which effectively enhances DRAM's resilience without sacrificing performance. The proposed physical design methodologies should act as important building blocks for 3D ICs and push 3D ICs toward mainstream acceptance in the near future.

Benefits of using a spectral hindcast database for wave power extraction assessment

When considering deployment of wave energy converters at a given site, it is of prime importance from both a technical and an economical point of view to accurately assess the total yearly energy that can be extracted by the given device. Especially, to be considered is the assessment of the efficiency of the device over the widest span of the sea-states spectral bandwidth. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the biases and errors introduced on extracted power classically computed using spectral data derived from analytical functions such as a JONSWAP spectrum, compared to the power derived using actual wave spectra obtained from a spectral hindcast database.

Impact analysis study in a typical solar PV microgrid power system

Microgrid (MG) power system with Distributed Generation (DG) plays an important role to provide reliable, secure, and low carbon emission energy supply for communities, in case of any failure or disturbance of energy supply from the main grid. At the same time, DG also contributes to several technical issues in the MG distribution network. Power quality (PQ) issues are one of the main technical challenges when integrating Renewable Energy (RE) sources in MG network. In this paper, the PQ issues like; power variation, voltage deviation, and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) have been addressed by an impact analysis study on a typical solar PV MG power system in both on-grid and off-grid mode of operation. Analysis results from the study will be helpful in developing an independent MG power system with improved PQ conditions.

Role of energy storage in the power system network

Today’s power system network is more complex with enhanced responsibility to maintain reliable, stable and quality supply of power at transmission and distribution level. Maintaining grid balance is a bigger issue, in case of any unexpected generation shortage or grid disturbance or any participation of an intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power in the energy mix. In order to compensate such imbalance and improve reliability, and stability of power system, an energy storage system (ESS) can be considered as a vital solution. Also ESS can be used to mitigate associated issues of renewable energy sources while integration into the power system network. Thus ESS supports to get a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by means of integrating more renewable energy sources to the grid effectively. There are various types of Energy Storage (ES) technologies which are being used in power systems network for large scale (MW) to small scale (KW) level. Based on the type and characteristics, each storage technology is suitable for a particular role of applications. This paper presents an extensive review study on various types of ES technologies in characteristics and applications point of view. It also demonstrates various applications of ESS in detail. Finally, with the aid of ES-selectTM tool software, a feasibility analysis has been carried out to identify a suitable ES technology for appropriate applications at different grid locations and also helps to develop a smart hybrid storage system for grid applications in future.

Incorporating wind power forecast uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment using neural network-based prediction intervals

Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

Performance analysis of a grid-connected PV system in LV distribution network

Over the past decade, the growing demand of Grid-connected photo voltaic (GCPV) system has been increasing due to an extensive use of renewable energy technologies for sustainable power generation and distribution. High-penetrated GCPV systems enhance the operation of the network by improving the voltage levels and reducing the active power losses along the length of the feeder. This paper aims to investigate the voltage variations and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) of a typical GCPV system modelled in Power system simulator, PSS SINCAL with the change of level of PV integrations in a Low Voltage (LV) distribution network. Five different case studies are considered to investigate the impact of PV integrations on LV nodes and the corresponding voltage variations and harmonics. In addition, this paper also explores and benchmarks the voltage improvement techniques by implementing On Load Tap Changer (OLTC) with respective to the main transformer and addition of Shunt Capacitor (SC) at appropriate node points in LV network,

Prediction interval estimation for wind farm power generation forecasts using support vector machines

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation is quite an important as well as challenging task for the system operators and market participants due to its high uncertainty. It is essential to quantify uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts for their efficient application in optimal management of wind farms and integration into power systems. Prediction intervals (PIs) are well known statistical tools which are used to quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future target variables. This paper investigates the application of a novel support vector machine based methodology to directly estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PIs without expensive computational burden and inaccurate assumptions about the distribution of the data. The efficiency of the method for uncertainty quantification is examined using monthly data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for short term application are generated with a confidence level of 90%. Experimental results confirm the ability of the method in constructing reliable PIs without resorting to complex computational methods.

Impacts of integration of wind and solar PV in a typical power network

Integration of solar PV and wind in to the distribution network is one of the most promising challenges of the modern power system networks to meet the growing demand of energy. Analysis of the effects of solar and wind intermittencies in the network are vital to maintain the power quality. Keeping this in view, this research paper focuses on impact analysis study of a typical power network with hybrid generation: solar PV and wind integration to quantify the level of impacts like power variation and voltage variation in the network through load flow analysis. Initially, a typical network model is developed using PSS-SINCAL and load profile analysis has been carried out based on the typical daily load profile and wind/solar profile to verify the power and voltage variations extensively in the network considering different scenarios. Results of this research analysis can be used as guidelines for utility grid to provide regulated and improved quality of energy supply by implementing appropriate planning of generation reserve and other control measures in the network

Robust control for power sharing in microgrids with low-inertia wind and PV generators

This paper presents a robust control design scheme for a multidistributed energy resource (DER) microgrid for power sharing in both interconnected and islanded modes. The scheme is proposed for micgrogrids consisting of photovoltaic (PV) units and wind turbine driven doubly fed induction generators (DFIGs). A battery is integrated with each of the wind and solar DER units. The control scheme has two levels: 1) one centralized multi-input–multi-output robust controller for regulating the set reference active and reactive powers and 2) local real and reactive power droop con-trollers, one on each DER unit. The robust control scheme utilizes multivariable H1 control to design controllers that are robust to the changes in the network and system nonlinearities. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated through large-distur-bance simulations, with complete nonlinear models, on a test micro-grid. It is found that the power sharing controllers provide excellent performance against large disturbances and load variations during islanding transients and interconnected operation.

Determining the size of PHEV charging stations powered by commercial grid-integrated PV systems considering reactive power support

Due to low electricity rates at nighttime, home charging for electric vehicles (EVs) is conventionally favored. However, the recent tendency in support of daytime workplace charging that absorbs energy produced by solar photovoltaic (PV) panels appears to be the most promising solution to facilitating higher PV and EV penetration in the power grid. This paper studies optimal sizing of workplace charging stations considering probabilistic reactive power support for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which are powered by PV units in medium voltage (MV) commercial networks. In this study, analytical expressions are first presented to estimate the size of charging stations integrated with PV units with an objective of minimizing energy losses. These stations are capable of providing reactive power support to the main grid in addition to charging PHEVs while considering the probability of PV generation. The study is further extended to investigate the impact of time-varying voltage-dependent charging load models on PV penetration. The simulation results obtained on an 18-bus test distribution system show that various charging load models can produce dissimilar levels of PHEV and PV penetration. Particularly, the maximum energy loss and peak load reductions are achieved at 70.17% and 42.95% respectively for the mixed charging load model, where the system accommodates respective PHEV and PV penetration levels of 9.51% and 50%. The results of probabilistic voltage distributions are also thoroughly reported in the paper.

IMPACT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND WIND GENERATORS ON HARMONIC DISTORTION OF ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Harmonic distortion on voltages and currents increases with the increased penetration of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) loads in distribution systems. Wind Generators (WGs), which are source of harmonic currents, have some common harmonic profiles with PEVs. Thus, WGs can be utilized in careful ways to subside the effect of PEVs on harmonic distortion. This work studies the impact of PEVs on harmonic distortions and integration of WGs to reduce it. A decoupled harmonic three-phase unbalanced distribution system model is developed in OpenDSS, where PEVs and WGs are represented by harmonic current loads and sources respectively. The developed model is first used to solve harmonic power flow on IEEE 34-bus distribution system with low, moderate, and high penetration of PEVs, and its impact on current/voltage Total Harmonic Distortions (THDs) is studied. This study shows that the voltage and current THDs could be increased upto 9.5% and 50% respectively, in case of distribution systems with high PEV penetration and these THD values are significantly larger than the limits prescribed by the IEEE standards. Next, carefully sized WGs are selected at different locations in the 34-bus distribution system to demonstrate reduction in the current/voltage THDs. In this work, a framework is also developed to find optimal size of WGs to reduce THDs below prescribed operational limits in distribution circuits with PEV loads. The optimization framework is implemented in MATLAB using Genetic Algorithm, which is interfaced with the harmonic power flow model developed in OpenDSS. The developed framework is used to find optimal size of WGs on the 34-bus distribution system with low, moderate, and high penetration of PEVs, with an objective to reduce voltage/current THD deviations throughout the distribution circuits. With the optimal size of WGs in distribution systems with PEV loads, the current and voltage THDs are reduced below 5% and 7% respectively, which are within the limits prescribed by IEEE.