Co-movements in commodity prices : a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co-movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co-movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid-2008 to the end of 2009 co-movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co-movement during the sampled period.

Development of realistic design fire time-temperature curves for the testing of cold-formed steel wall system

Fire resistance rating of light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems is obtained from fire tests based on the standard fire time-temperature curve. However, fire severity has increased in modern buildings due to higher fuel loads as a result of modern furniture and light weight constructions that make use of thermoplastics materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. Some of these materials are high in calorific values and increase both the spread of fire growth and heat release rate, thus increasing the fire severity beyond that of the standard fire curve. Further, the standard fire curve does not include a decay phase that is present in natural fires. Despite the increasing usage of LSF walls, their behaviour in real building fires is not fully understood. This paper presents the details of a research study aimed at developing realistic design fire curves for use in the fire tests of LSF walls. It includes a review of the characteristics of building fires, previously developed fire time-temperature curves, computer models and available parametric equations. The paper highlights that real building fire time-temperature curves depend on the fuel load representing the combustible building contents, ventilation openings and thermal properties of wall lining materials, and provides suitable values of many required parameters including fuel loads in residential buildings. Finally, realistic design fire time-temperature curves simulating the fire conditions in modern residential buildings are proposed for the testing of LSF walls.

Configuring retroreflective markings to enhance the night-time conspicuity of road workers

This study investigated whether the night-time conspicuity of road workers can be enhanced by positioning retroreflective strips on the moveable joints in patterns that convey varying degrees of biological motion. Participants were 24 visually normal adults (12 young M = 26.8 years; 12 older M = 72.9 years). Visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and glare sensitivity were recorded for each participant. Experimenters acting as road workers walked in place on a closed road circuit within simulated road work sites, facing either the oncoming driver or the roadway (presenting sideways to the driver) and wearing one of four clothing conditions: (i) standard road worker vest; (ii) standard vest plus thigh-mounted retroreflective strips; (iii) standard vest plus retroreflective strips on ankles and knees; (iv) standard vest plus retroreflective strips positioned on the extremities in a configuration that conveyed biological motion (“biomotion”). As they drove along the closed road participants were instructed to press a button to indicate when they first recognized that a road worker was present. The results demonstrated that regardless of the direction of walking, road workers wearing biomotion clothing were recognized at significantly (p < 0.05) longer distances (3×), relative to the standard vest alone. Response distances were significantly shorter for the older drivers. Contrast sensitivity was a better predictor of the ability to recognize road workers than was visual acuity or glare sensitivity. We conclude that adding retroreflective strips in the biomotion configuration can significantly improve road worker conspicuity regardless of the road worker's orientation and the age of the driver.

Differential effects of refractive blur on day and night-time driving performance

Purpose To investigate the effect of different levels of refractive blur on real-world driving performance measured under day and nighttime conditions. Methods Participants included 12 visually normal, young adults (mean age = 25.8 ± 5.2 years) who drove an instrumented research vehicle around a 4 km closed road circuit with three different levels of binocular spherical refractive blur (+0.50 diopter sphere [DS], +1.00 DS, +2.00 DS) compared with a baseline condition. The subjects wore optimal spherocylinder correction and the additional blur lenses were mounted in modified full-field goggles; the order of testing of the blur conditions was randomized. Driving performance was assessed in two different sessions under day and nighttime conditions and included measures of road signs recognized, hazard detection and avoidance, gap detection, lane-keeping, sign recognition distance, speed, and time to complete the course. Results Refractive blur and time of day had significant effects on driving performance (P < 0.05), where increasing blur and nighttime driving reduced performance on all driving tasks except gap judgment and lane keeping. There was also a significant interaction between blur and time of day (P < 0.05), such that the effects of blur were exacerbated under nighttime driving conditions; performance differences were evident even for +0.50 DS blur relative to baseline for some measures. Conclusions The effects of blur were greatest under nighttime conditions, even for levels of binocular refractive blur as low as +0.50 DS. These results emphasize the importance of accurate and up-to-date refractive correction of even low levels of refractive error when driving at night.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

A time for everything : reviewing an institution’s virtual learning environment

This paper outlines a review carried out at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in 2013 to identify the extent to which the centrally supported virtual learning environment met current and future learning and teaching needs. A range of consultation and investigation activities occurred from May to November to encourage open stakeholder feedback as well as to allow for reflection on alternative digital technologies, systems and strategies. This resulted in the development of nine recommendations, which, following a planning phase, will commence being implemented from mid-2014.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence : systematic review and meta-analysis

A systematic literature review and a comprehensive meta-analysis that combines the findings from existing studies, was conducted in this thesis to analyse the impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the quality, publication bias and outlier bias of the various studies, and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were considered. Based on this comprehensive and systematic review, and the results of the subsequent meta-analysis, major issues in study design, traffic and crash data, and model development and evaluation are discussed.

Exploring parents' beliefs about their young child's physical activity and screen time behaviours

Drawing on the belief-based framework of the theory of planned behaviour, 20 adults living in Queensland, Australia participated in semi-structured interviews to elicit salient beliefs regarding their young child’s physical activity (PA) and screen time behaviours. Data were analysed separately for PA and screen time with a range of beliefs emerging that guided parents’ decisions for these important health behaviours. Underlying advantages (e.g., improve family interactions, improve child behaviour), disadvantages (e.g., mess and noise factor, increase in parental distress), barriers (e.g., lack of time, parental fatigue), and facilitators (e.g., access to parks, social support) to engaging their child in adequate PA and limited screen time emerged. Normative pressures were also identified as affecting parents’ decisions for their child in these contexts. Parents experience unique difficulties in engaging their child in adequate PA and limited screen time that interventions can draw on when designing and implementing programs aimed at modifying these important child health behaviours.

Impact of high PV penetration on distribution transformer life time

Integration of rooftop photovoltaics (PVs) in residential networks at moderate penetration levels is becoming a reality in many countries including Australia. Despite the technical challenges in properly accommodating PV units, one of the major benefits is the ability of PV units to extend useful life time of distribution transformers. This effect is not quantified in the existing literature. This paper carries out an analysis into the impacts of rooftop PVs at different penetration levels on the performance of distribution transformers and residential networks. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the benefit of the distribution transformer life extension brought about by customer-owned rooftop PV units. The proposed methodology is applied to a real distribution system with various scenarios, including different penetration levels. The results show the distribution transformer loss-of-life function, as a function of the rooftop PV penetration level, is monotonically decreasing function which saturates after a certain penetration level. The best life improvements occur with transformers that are highly loaded and the presence of a significant PV installation may support the deferral of transformer upgrades.

A continental-scale tool for acoustic identification of European bats

Summary 1. Acoustic methods are used increasingly to survey and monitor bat populations. However, the use of acoustic methods at continental scales can be hampered by the lack of standardized and objective methods to identify all species recorded. This makes comparable continent-wide monitoring difficult, impeding progress towards developing biodiversity indicators, transboundary conservation programmes and monitoring species distribution changes. 2. Here we developed a continental-scale classifier for acoustic identification of bats, which can be used throughout Europe to ensure objective, consistent and comparable species identifications. We selected 1350 full-spectrum reference calls from a set of 15 858 calls of 34 European species, from EchoBank, a global echolocation call library. We assessed 24 call parameters to evaluate how well they distinguish between species and used the 12 most useful to train a hierarchy of ensembles of artificial neural networks to distinguish the echolocation calls of these bat species. 3. Calls are first classified to one of five call-type groups, with a median accuracy of 97·6%. The median species-level classification accuracy is 83·7%, providing robust classification for most European species, and an estimate of classification error for each species. 4. These classifiers were packaged into an online tool, iBatsID, which is freely available, enabling anyone to classify European calls in an objective and consistent way, allowing standardized acoustic identification across the continent. 5. Synthesis and applications. iBatsID is the first freely available and easily accessible continental- scale bat call classifier, providing the basis for standardized, continental acoustic bat monitoring in Europe. This method can provide key information to managers and conservation planners on distribution changes and changes in bat species activity through time.

Wing morphology, echolocation calls, diet and emergence time of black-bearded tomb bats (Taphozous melanopogon, Emballonuridae) from southwest China

We studied the wing morphology, echolocation calls, diet and emergence time of the black-bearded tomb bat (Taphozous melanopogon) from May to October 2006 in Guangxi Province, southwest China. Taphozous melanopogon has wings with high aspect ratio, high loading and pointed wing-tip shape-characteristics associated with fast flight in open space. This species usually produces low-intensity, low frequency, and frequency-modulated (FM) calls usually containing up to four harmonics, with most energy in the second (or sometimes third) harmonic. The diet of this species consists mostly of Lepidoptera and Hemiptera. Timing of evening emergence is correlated with the time of sunset. This is the first study to describe the flight and echolocation behavior of this species in China, and opens the way for future studies of its biology.

Calibration of treatment time intensity modulated EPID images for anatomical imaging

Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) is a well established technique for delivering highly conformal radiation dose distributions. The complexity of the delivery techniques and high dose gradients around the target volume make verification of the patient treatment crucial to the success of the treatment. Conventional treatment protocols involve imaging the patient prior to treatment, comparing the patient set-up to the planned set-up and then making any necessary shifts in the patient position to ensure target volume coverage. This paper presents a method for calibrating electronic portal imaging device (EPID) images acquired during IMRT delivery so that they can be used for verifying the patient set-up.

Hydrological consequences of land-cover change: Quantifying the influence of plants on soil moisture with time-lapse electrical resistivity

Electrical resistivity of soils and sediments is strongly influenced by the presence of interstitial water. Taking advantage of this dependency, electrical-resistivity imaging (ERI) can be effectively utilized to estimate subsurface soil-moisture distributions. The ability to obtain spatially extensive data combined with time-lapse measurements provides further opportunities to understand links between land use and climate processes. In natural settings, spatial and temporal changes in temperature and porewater salinity influence the relationship between soil moisture and electrical resistivity. Apart from environmental factors, technical, theoretical, and methodological ambiguities may also interfere with accurate estimation of soil moisture from ERI data. We have examined several of these complicating factors using data from a two-year study at a forest-grassland ecotone, a boundary between neighboring but different plant communities.At this site, temperature variability accounts for approximately 20-45 of resistivity changes from cold winter to warm summer months. Temporal changes in groundwater conductivity (mean=650 S/cm =57.7) and a roughly 100-S/cm spatial difference between the forest and grassland had only a minor influence on the moisture estimates. Significant seasonal fluctuations in temperature and precipitation had negligible influence on the basic measurement errors in data sets. Extracting accurate temporal changes from ERI can be hindered by nonuniqueness of the inversion process and uncertainties related to time-lapse inversion schemes. The accuracy of soil moisture obtained from ERI depends on all of these factors, in addition to empirical parameters that define the petrophysical soil-moisture/resistivity relationship. Many of the complicating factors and modifying variables to accurately quantify soil moisture changes with ERI can be accounted for using field and theoretical principles.