Essays on the political economy of European integration

Recently, a rising interest in political and economic integration/disintegration issues has been developed in the political economy field. This growing strand of literature partly draws on traditional issues of fiscal federalism and optimum public good provision and focuses on a trade-off between the benefits of centralization, arising from economies of scale or externalities, and the costs of harmonizing policies as a consequence of the increased heterogeneity of individual preferences in an international union or in a country composed of at least two regions. This thesis stems from this strand of literature and aims to shed some light on two highly relevant aspects of the political economy of European integration. The first concerns the role of public opinion in the integration process; more precisely, how economic benefits and costs of integration shape citizens' support for European Union (EU) membership. The second is the allocation of policy competences among different levels of government: European, national and regional. Chapter 1 introduces the topics developed in this thesis by reviewing the main recent theoretical developments in the political economy analysis of integration processes. It is structured as follows. First, it briefly surveys a few relevant articles on economic theories of integration and disintegration processes (Alesina and Spolaore 1997, Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina et al. 2000, Casella and Feinstein 2002) and discusses their relevance for the study of the impact of economic benefits and costs on public opinion attitude towards the EU. Subsequently, it explores the links existing between such political economy literature and theories of fiscal federalism, especially with regard to normative considerations concerning the optimal allocation of competences in a union. Chapter 2 firstly proposes a model of citizens’ support for membership of international unions, with explicit reference to the EU; subsequently it tests the model on a panel of EU countries. What are the factors that influence public opinion support for the European Union (EU)? In international relations theory, the idea that citizens' support for the EU depends on material benefits deriving from integration, i.e. whether European integration makes individuals economically better off (utilitarian support), has been common since the 1970s, but has never been the subject of a formal treatment (Hix 2005). A small number of studies in the 1990s have investigated econometrically the link between national economic performance and mass support for European integration (Eichenberg and Dalton 1993; Anderson and Kalthenthaler 1996), but only making informal assumptions. The main aim of Chapter 2 is thus to propose and test our model with a view to providing a more complete and theoretically grounded picture of public support for the EU. Following theories of utilitarian support, we assume that citizens are in favour of membership if they receive economic benefits from it. To develop this idea, we propose a simple political economic model drawing on the recent economic literature on integration and disintegration processes. The basic element is the existence of a trade-off between the benefits of centralisation and the costs of harmonising policies in presence of heterogeneous preferences among countries. The approach we follow is that of the recent literature on the political economy of international unions and the unification or break-up of nations (Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina and Wacziarg 1999, Alesina et al. 2001, 2005a, to mention only the relevant). The general perspective is that unification provides returns to scale in the provision of public goods, but reduces each member state’s ability to determine its most favoured bundle of public goods. In the simple model presented in Chapter 2, support for membership of the union is increasing in the union’s average income and in the loss of efficiency stemming from being outside the union, and decreasing in a country’s average income, while increasing heterogeneity of preferences among countries points to a reduced scope of the union. Afterwards we empirically test the model with data on the EU; more precisely, we perform an econometric analysis employing a panel of member countries over time. The second part of Chapter 2 thus tries to answer the following question: does public opinion support for the EU really depend on economic factors? The findings are broadly consistent with our theoretical expectations: the conditions of the national economy, differences in income among member states and heterogeneity of preferences shape citizens’ attitude towards their country’s membership of the EU. Consequently, this analysis offers some interesting policy implications for the present debate about ratification of the European Constitution and, more generally, about how the EU could act in order to gain more support from the European public. Citizens in many member states are called to express their opinion in national referenda, which may well end up in rejection of the Constitution, as recently happened in France and the Netherlands, triggering a European-wide political crisis. These events show that nowadays understanding public attitude towards the EU is not only of academic interest, but has a strong relevance for policy-making too. Chapter 3 empirically investigates the link between European integration and regional autonomy in Italy. Over the last few decades, the double tendency towards supranationalism and regional autonomy, which has characterised some European States, has taken a very interesting form in this country, because Italy, besides being one of the founding members of the EU, also implemented a process of decentralisation during the 1970s, further strengthened by a constitutional reform in 2001. Moreover, the issue of the allocation of competences among the EU, the Member States and the regions is now especially topical. The process leading to the drafting of European Constitution (even if then it has not come into force) has attracted much attention from a constitutional political economy perspective both on a normative and positive point of view (Breuss and Eller 2004, Mueller 2005). The Italian parliament has recently passed a new thorough constitutional reform, still to be approved by citizens in a referendum, which includes, among other things, the so called “devolution”, i.e. granting the regions exclusive competence in public health care, education and local police. Following and extending the methodology proposed in a recent influential article by Alesina et al. (2005b), which only concentrated on the EU activity (treaties, legislation, and European Court of Justice’s rulings), we develop a set of quantitative indicators measuring the intensity of the legislative activity of the Italian State, the EU and the Italian regions from 1973 to 2005 in a large number of policy categories. By doing so, we seek to answer the following broad questions. Are European and regional legislations substitutes for state laws? To what extent are the competences attributed by the European treaties or the Italian Constitution actually exerted in the various policy areas? Is their exertion consistent with the normative recommendations from the economic literature about their optimum allocation among different levels of government? The main results show that, first, there seems to be a certain substitutability between EU and national legislations (even if not a very strong one), but not between regional and national ones. Second, the EU concentrates its legislative activity mainly in international trade and agriculture, whilst social policy is where the regions and the State (which is also the main actor in foreign policy) are more active. Third, at least two levels of government (in some cases all of them) are significantly involved in the legislative activity in many sectors, even where the rationale for that is, at best, very questionable, indicating that they actually share a larger number of policy tasks than that suggested by the economic theory. It appears therefore that an excessive number of competences are actually shared among different levels of government. From an economic perspective, it may well be recommended that some competences be shared, but only when the balance between scale or spillover effects and heterogeneity of preferences suggests so. When, on the contrary, too many levels of government are involved in a certain policy area, the distinction between their different responsibilities easily becomes unnecessarily blurred. This may not only leads to a slower and inefficient policy-making process, but also risks to make it too complicate to understand for citizens, who, on the contrary, should be able to know who is really responsible for a certain policy when they vote in national,local or European elections or in referenda on national or European constitutional issues.

Perturbative and non perturbative effects in the Standard Model and orbifolded ADS/CFT based theories

We study some perturbative and nonperturbative effects in the framework of the Standard Model of particle physics. In particular we consider the time dependence of the Higgs vacuum expectation value given by the dynamics of the StandardModel and study the non-adiabatic production of both bosons and fermions, which is intrinsically non-perturbative. In theHartree approximation, we analyze the general expressions that describe the dissipative dynamics due to the backreaction of the produced particles. Then, we solve numerically some relevant cases for the Standard Model phenomenology in the regime of relatively small oscillations of the Higgs vacuum expectation value (vev). As perturbative effects, we consider the leading logarithmic resummation in small Bjorken x QCD, concentrating ourselves on the Nc dependence of the Green functions associated to reggeized gluons. Here the eigenvalues of the BKP kernel for states of more than three reggeized gluons are unknown in general, contrary to the large Nc limit (planar limit) case where the problem becomes integrable. In this contest we consider a 4-gluon kernel for a finite number of colors and define some simple toy models for the configuration space dynamics, which are directly solvable with group theoretical methods. In particular we study the depencence of the spectrum of thesemodelswith respect to the number of colors andmake comparisons with the planar limit case. In the final part we move on the study of theories beyond the Standard Model, considering models built on AdS5 S5/Γ orbifold compactifications of the type IIB superstring, where Γ is the abelian group Zn. We present an appealing three family N = 0 SUSY model with n = 7 for the order of the orbifolding group. This result in a modified Pati–Salam Model which reduced to the StandardModel after symmetry breaking and has interesting phenomenological consequences for LHC.

Mitochondrial dysfunction in a cell model of thyroid oncocytoma

The role of mitochondrial dysfunction in cancer has long been a subject of great interest. In this study, such dysfunction has been examined with regards to thyroid oncocytoma, a rare form of cancer, accounting for less than 5% of all thyroid cancers. A peculiar characteristic of thyroid oncocytic cells is the presence of an abnormally large number of mitochondria in the cytoplasm. Such mitochondrial hyperplasia has also been observed in cells derived from patients suffering from mitochondrial encephalomyopathies, where mutations in the mitochondrial DNA(mtDNA) encoding the respiratory complexes result in oxidative phosphorylation dysfunction. An increase in the number of mitochondria occurs in the latter in order to compensate for the respiratory deficiency. This fact spurred the investigation into the presence of analogous mutations in thyroid oncocytic cells. In this study, the only available cell model of thyroid oncocytoma was utilised, the XTC-1 cell line, established from an oncocytic thyroid metastasis to the breast. In order to assess the energetic efficiency of these cells, they were incubated in a medium lacking glucose and supplemented instead with galactose. When subjected to such conditions, glycolysis is effectively inhibited and the cells are forced to use the mitochondria for energy production. Cell viability experiments revealed that XTC-1 cells were unable to survive in galactose medium. This was in marked contrast to the TPC-1 control cell line, a thyroid tumour cell line which does not display the oncocytic phenotype. In agreement with these findings, subsequent experiments assessing the levels of cellular ATP over incubation time in galactose medium, showed a drastic and continual decrease in ATP levels only in the XTC-1 cell line. Furthermore, experiments on digitonin-permeabilised cells revealed that the respiratory dysfunction in the latter was due to a defect in complex I of the respiratory chain. Subsequent experiments using cybrids demonstrated that this defect could be attributed to the mitochondrially-encoded subunits of complex I as opposed to the nuclearencoded subunits. Confirmation came with mtDNA sequencing, which detected the presence of a novel mutation in the ND1 subunit of complex I. In addition, a mutation in the cytochrome b subunit of complex III of the respiratory chain was detected. The fact that XTC-1 cells are unable to survive when incubated in galactose medium is consistent with the fact that many cancers are largely dependent on glycolysis for energy production. Indeed, numerous studies have shown that glycolytic inhibitors are able to induce apoptosis in various cancer cell lines. Subsequent experiments were therefore performed in order to identify the mode of XTC-1 cell death when subjected to the metabolic stress imposed by the forced use of the mitochondria for energy production. Cell shrinkage and mitochondrial fragmentation were observed in the dying cells, which would indicate an apoptotic type of cell death. Analysis of additional parameters however revealed a lack of both DNA fragmentation and caspase activation, thus excluding a classical apoptotic type of cell death. Interestingly, cleavage of the actin component of the cytoskeleton was observed, implicating the action of proteases in this mode of cell demise. However, experiments employing protease inhibitors failed to identify the specific protease involved. It has been reported in the literature that overexpression of Bcl-2 is able to rescue cells presenting a respiratory deficiency. As the XTC-1 cell line is not only respiration-deficient but also exhibits a marked decrease in Bcl-2 expression, it is a perfect model with which to study the relationship between Bcl-2 and oxidative phosphorylation in respiratory-deficient cells. Contrary to the reported literature studies on various cell lines harbouring defects in the respiratory chain, Bcl-2 overexpression was not shown to increase cell survival or rescue the energetic dysfunction in XTC-1 cells. Interestingly however, it had a noticeable impact on cell adhesion and morphology. Whereas XTC-1 cells shrank and detached from the growth surface under conditions of metabolic stress, Bcl-2-overexpressing XTC-1 cells appeared much healthier and were up to 45% more adherent. The target of Bcl-2 in this setting appeared to be the actin cytoskeleton, as the cleavage observed in XTC-1 cells expressing only endogenous levels of Bcl-2, was inhibited in Bcl-2-overexpressing cells. Thus, although unable to rescue XTC-1 cells in terms of cell viability, Bcl-2 is somehow able to stabilise the cytoskeleton, resulting in modifications in cell morphology and adhesion. The mitochondrial respiratory deficiency observed in cancer cells is thought not only to cause an increased dependency on glycolysis but it is also thought to blunt cellular responses to anticancer agents. The effects of several therapeutic agents were thus assessed for their death-inducing ability in XTC-1 cells. Cell viability experiments clearly showed that the cells were more resistant to stimuli which generate reactive oxygen species (tert-butylhydroperoxide) and to mitochondrial calcium-mediated apoptotic stimuli (C6-ceramide), as opposed to stimuli inflicting DNA damage (cisplatin) and damage to protein kinases(staurosporine). Various studies in the literature have reported that the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-coactivator 1(PGC-1α), which plays a fundamental role in mitochondrial biogenesis, is also involved in protecting cells against apoptosis caused by the former two types of stimuli. In accordance with these observations, real-time PCR experiments showed that XTC-1 cells express higher mRNA levels of this coactivator than do the control cells, implicating its importance in drug resistance. In conclusion, this study has revealed that XTC-1 cells, like many cancer cell lines, are characterised by a reduced energetic efficiency due to mitochondrial dysfunction. Said dysfunction has been attributed to mutations in respiratory genes encoded by the mitochondrial genome. Although the mechanism of cell demise in conditions of metabolic stress is unclear, the potential of targeting thyroid oncocytic cancers using glycolytic inhibitors has been illustrated. In addition, the discovery of mtDNA mutations in XTC-1 cells has enabled the use of this cell line as a model with which to study the relationship between Bcl-2 overexpression and oxidative phosphorylation in cells harbouring mtDNA mutations and also to investigate the significance of such mutations in establishing resistance to apoptotic stimuli.

Comparison of model potentials for molecular dynamics simulation of crystalline silica

Simulationen von SiO2 mit dem von van Beest, Kramer und vanSanten (BKS) entwickelten Paarpotenzial erzeugen vielezufriedenstellende Ergebnisse, aber auch charakteristischeSchwachstellen. In dieser Arbeit wird das BKS-Potenzial mitzwei kürzlich vorgeschlagenen Potenzialen verglichen, dieeffektiv Mehrteilchen-Wechselwirkungen beinhalten. Der ersteAnsatz erlaubt dazu fluktuierende Ladungen, der zweiteinduzierbare Polarisierungen auf den Sauerstoffatomen. Die untersuchten Schwachstellen des BKS Potenzialsbeinhalten das Verhältnis der zwei Gitterkonstanten a und cim Quarzübergang, das von BKS falsch beschrieben wird.Cristobalit und Tridymit erscheinen instabil mit BKS.Weiterhin zeigt die BKS-Zustandsdichte charakteristischeAbweichungen von der wahren Zustandsdichte. DerÜbergangsdruck für den Stishovit I-II Übergang wird deutlichüberschätzt. Das Fluktuierende-Ladungs-Modell verbesserteinige der genannten Punkte, reproduziert aber viele andereEigenschaften schlechter als BKS. DasFluktierende-Dipol-Modell dagegen behebt alle genanntenArtefakte. Zusätzlich wird der druckinduzierte Phasenübergang imalpha-Quarz untersucht. Alle Potentiale finden die selbeStruktur für Quarz II. Bei anschliessender Dekompressionerzeugt BKS eine weitere Phase, während die beiden anderenPotentiale wieder zum alpha-Quarz zurückkehren. Weiterhinwerden zwei Methoden entwickelt, um die piezoelektrischenKonstanten bei konstantem Druck zu bestimmen. Die Ergebnissegeben Hinweise auf eine möglicherweisenicht-elektrostatische Natur der Polarisierungen imFluktuierende-Dipole-Modell. Mit dieser Interpretation scheint das Fluktuierende-DipolPotential alle verfügbaren experimentellen Daten am bestenvon allen drei untersuchten Ansätzen zu reproduzieren.

Gamma-secretase modulators and inhibitors in Alzheimer's disease: influence of genetic background on efficacy and mechanism of action

According to the amyloid hypothesis, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is caused by aberrant production or clearance of the amyloid-β (Aβ) peptides, and in particular of the longer more aggregation-prone Aβ42. The Aβ peptides are generated through successive proteolytic cleavage of the amyloid precursor protein (APP) by the β-site APP cleaving enzyme (BACE) and γ-secretase. γ-secretase produces Aβ peptides with variable C-termini ranging from Aβ34 to Aβ48, presumably by sequential trimming of longer into shorter peptides. γ-secretase is a multiprotein complex consisting of at least four different proteins and the presenilin proteins (PS1 or PS2) contain the catalytic center of the complex. In 2001 several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as the founding members of a new class of γ-secretase modulators (GSMs) that can selectively reduce production of Aβ42. Concomitantly, these GSMs increase Aβ38 production indicating closely coordinated generation of Aβ42 and Aβ38 and a potential precursor-product relationship between these peptides. GSMs seem to exert their activity by direct modulation of γ-secretase. Support for this hypothesis is drawn from the finding that some PS mutations associated with early-onset familial AD (FAD) can modulate the cellular response to GSMs and to γ-secretase inhibitors (GSIs), which inhibit production of all Aβ peptides and are known to directly interact with PS. A particularly interesting FAD PS mutation is PS1-ΔExon9, a complex deletion mutant that blocks endoproteolysis of PS1 and renders cells completely non-responsive to GSMs. Studies presented in this thesis show that the diminished response of PS1-ΔExon9 to GSMs is mainly caused by its lack of endoproteolytic cleavage. Furthermore, we were able to demonstrate that a reduced response to GSMs and GSIs is not limited to PS1-ΔExon9 but is a common effect of aggressive FAD-associated PS1 mutations. Surprisingly, we also found that while the Aβ42 response to GSMs is almost completely abolished by these PS1 mutations, the accompanying Aβ38 increase was indistinguishable to wild-type PS1. Finally, the reduced response to GSIs was confirmed in a mouse model with transgenic expression of an aggressive FAD-associated PS1 mutation as a highly potent GSI failed to reduce Aβ42 levels in brain of these mice. Taken together, our findings provide clear evidence for independent generation of Aβ42 and Aβ38 peptides, and argue that the sequential cleavage model might be an oversimplification of the molecular mechanism of γ-secretase. Most importantly, our results highlight the significance of genetic background in drug discovery efforts aimed at γ-secretase, and indicate that the use of cellular models with transgenic expression of FAD-associated PS mutations might confound studies of the potency and efficacy of GSMs and GSIs. Therefore, such models should be strictly avoided in the ongoing preclinical development of these promising and potentially disease-modifying therapeutics for AD.

Radar based improvements and diagnosis of the convective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model

In the last few years the resolution of numerical weather prediction (nwp) became higher and higher with the progresses of technology and knowledge. As a consequence, a great number of initial data became fundamental for a correct initialization of the models. The potential of radar observations has long been recognized for improving the initial conditions of high-resolution nwp models, while operational application becomes more frequent. The fact that many nwp centres have recently taken into operations convection-permitting forecast models, many of which assimilate radar data, emphasizes the need for an approach to providing quality information which is needed in order to avoid that radar errors degrade the model's initial conditions and, therefore, its forecasts. Environmental risks can can be related with various causes: meteorological, seismical, hydrological/hydraulic. Flash floods have horizontal dimension of 1-20 Km and can be inserted in mesoscale gamma subscale, this scale can be modeled only with nwp model with the highest resolution as the COSMO-2 model. One of the problems of modeling extreme convective events is related with the atmospheric initial conditions, in fact the scale dimension for the assimilation of atmospheric condition in an high resolution model is about 10 Km, a value too high for a correct representation of convection initial conditions. Assimilation of radar data with his resolution of about of Km every 5 or 10 minutes can be a solution for this problem. In this contribution a pragmatic and empirical approach to deriving a radar data quality description is proposed to be used in radar data assimilation and more specifically for the latent heat nudging (lhn) scheme. Later the the nvective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model are investigated through some case studies. Finally, this work shows some preliminary experiments of coupling of a high resolution meteorological model with an Hydrological one.

3D-electron microscopy of different conformations of cephalopod hemocyanins

Die Hämocyanine der Cephalopoden Nautilus pompilius und Sepia officinalis sorgen für den Sauerstofftransport zwischen den Kiemen und den Geweben. Sie bestehen aus einem zylindrischen Dekamer mit interner Kragenstruktur. Während eine Untereinheit (also eine Polypeptidkette) bei NpH aus sieben paralogen funktionellen Domänen (FU-a bis FU-g) besteht, führte ein Genduplikationsereignis der FU-d zu acht FUs in SoH (a, b, c, d, d´, e, f, g). In allen Mollusken Hämocyaninen bilden sechs dieser FUs den äußeren Ring und die restlichen die interne Kragenstruktur. rnrnIn dieser Arbeit wurde ein dreidimensionales Modell des Hämocyanins von Sepia officinalis (SoH) erstellt. Die Rekonstruktion, mit einer Auflösung von 8,8Å (FSC=0,5), erlaubt das Einpassen von Homolologiemodellen und somit das Erstellen eines molekularen Modells mit pseudo atomarer Auflösung. Des Weiteren wurden zwei Rekonstruktionen des Hämocyanins von Nautilus pompilius (NpH) in verschiedenen Oxygenierungszuständen erstellt. Die auf 10 und 8,1Å aufgelösten Modelle zeigen zwei verschiedene Konformationen des Proteins. Daraus ließ sich eine Modellvorstellung über die allosterische Funktionsweise ableiten. Die hier erreichte Auflösung von 8Å ist die momentan höchste eines Molluskenhämocyanins. rnAuf Grundlage des molekularen Modells von SoH konnte die Topologie des Proteins aufgeklärt werden. Es wurde gezeigt, dass die zusätzliche FU-d´ in den Kragen integriert ist und somit die prinzipielle Wandarchitektur aller Mollusken Hämocyanine identisch ist. Wie die Analyse des erstellten molekularen Modells zeigt werden sind die beiden Isoformen (SoH1 und SoH2) in den Bereichen der Interfaces nahezu identisch; auch der Vergleich mit NpH zeigt grosse Übereinstimmungen. Des weiteren konnte eine Fülle von Informationen bezüglich der allosterischen Signalübertragung innerhalb des Moleküls gewonnen werden. rnDer Versuch, NpH in verschiedenen Oxygenierungszuständen zu zeigen, war erfolgreich. Die Datensätze, die unter zwei atmosphärischen Bedingungen präpariert wurden, führten reproduzierbar zu zwei unterschiedlichen Rekonstruktionen. Dies zeigt, daß der hier entwickelte experimentelle Ansatz funktioniert. Er kann nun routinemäßig auf andere Proteine angewandt werden. Wie der strukturelle Vergleich zeigte, verändert sich die Orientierung der FUs durch die Oxygenierung leicht. Dies wiederum beeinflusst die Anordnung innerhalb der Interfaces sowie die Abstände zwischen den beteiligten Aminosäuren. Aus dieser Analyse konnte eine Modellvorstellung zum allosterischen Signaltransfer innerhalb des Moleküls abgeleitet werden, die auf einer Umordnung von Salzbrücken basiert.

Econometrics of default risk

This thesis is the result of a project aimed at the study of a crucial topic in finance: default risk, whose measurement and modelling have achieved increasing relevance in recent years. We investigate the main issues related to the default phenomenon, under both a methodological and empirical perspective. The topics of default predictability and correlation are treated with a constant attention to the modelling solutions and reviewing critically the literature. From the methodological point of view, our analysis results in the proposal of a new class of models, called Poisson Autoregression with Exogenous Covariates (PARX). The PARX models, including both autoregressive end exogenous components, are able to capture the dynamics of default count time series, characterized by persistence of shocks and slowly decaying autocorrelation. Application of different PARX models to the monthly default counts of US industrial firms in the period 1982-2011 allows an empirical insight of the defaults dynamics and supports the identification of the main default predictors at an aggregate level.

Micro and Macro essays in Applied Fiscal Policy

This thesis analysis micro and macro aspect of applied fiscal policy issues. The first chapter investigates the extent to which local budget spending composition reacts to fiscal rules variations. I consider the budget of Italian municipalities and exploit specific changes in the Domestic Stability Pact’s rules, to perform a difference-in-discontinuities analysis. The results show that imposing a cap on the total amount of consumption and investment is not as binding as two caps, one for consumption and a different one for investment. More specifically, consumption is triggered by changes in wages and services spending, while investment relies on infrastructure movements. In addition, there is evidence that when an increase in investment is achieved, there is also a higher budget deficit level. The second chapter intends to analyze the extent to which fiscal policy shocks are able to affect macrovariables during business cycle fluctuations, differentiating among three intervention channels: public taxation, consumption and investment. The econometric methodology implemented is a Panel Vector Autoregressive model with a structural characterization. The results show that fiscal shocks have different multipliers in relation to expansion or contraction periods: output does not react during good times while there are significant effects in bad ones. The third chapter evaluates the effects of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the long-term sovereign bond spread of Italy relative to Germany. After collecting data on relevant fiscal policy announcements, we perform an econometric comparative analysis between the three cabinets that followed one another during the period 2009-2013. The results suggest that only fiscal policy announcements made by members of Monti’s cabinet have been effective in influencing significantly the Italian spread in the expected direction, revealing a remarkable credibility gap between Berlusconi’s and Letta’s governments with respect to Monti’s administration.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Pricing in stochastic-local volatility models with default

In recent years is becoming increasingly important to handle credit risk. Credit risk is the risk associated with the possibility of bankruptcy. More precisely, if a derivative provides for a payment at cert time T but before that time the counterparty defaults, at maturity the payment cannot be effectively performed, so the owner of the contract loses it entirely or a part of it. It means that the payoff of the derivative, and consequently its price, depends on the underlying of the basic derivative and on the risk of bankruptcy of the counterparty. To value and to hedge credit risk in a consistent way, one needs to develop a quantitative model. We have studied analytical approximation formulas and numerical methods such as Monte Carlo method in order to calculate the price of a bond. We have illustrated how to obtain fast and accurate pricing approximations by expanding the drift and diffusion as a Taylor series and we have compared the second and third order approximation of the Bond and Call price with an accurate Monte Carlo simulation. We have analysed JDCEV model with constant or stochastic interest rate. We have provided numerical examples that illustrate the effectiveness and versatility of our methods. We have used Wolfram Mathematica and Matlab.

Stochastic foundations of dynamic trade and labor market models

This dissertation consists of three self-contained papers that are related to two main topics. In particular, the first and third studies focus on labor market modeling, whereas the second essay presents a dynamic international trade setup.rnrnIn Chapter "Expenses on Labor Market Reforms during Transitional Dynamics", we investigate the arising costs of a potential labor market reform from a government point of view. To analyze various effects of unemployment benefits system changes, this chapter develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous employed and unemployed workers.rn rnIn Chapter "Endogenous Markup Distributions", we study how markup distributions adjust when a closed economy opens up. In order to perform this analysis, we first present a closed-economy general-equilibrium industry dynamics model, where firms enter and exit markets, and then extend our analysis to the open-economy case.rn rnIn Chapter "Unemployment in the OECD - Pure Chance or Institutions?", we examine effects of aggregate shocks on the distribution of the unemployment rates in OECD member countries.rn rnIn all three chapters we model systems that behave randomly and operate on stochastic processes. We therefore exploit stochastic calculus that establishes clear methodological links between the chapters.

A multi-regional view on aging societies accounting for the existence of non-tradable goods

This thesis assesses the question, whether accounting for non-tradable goods sectors in a calibrated Auerbach-Kotlikoff multi-regional overlapping-generations-model significantly affects this model’s results when simulating the economic impact of demographic change. Non-tradable goods constitute a major part of up to 80 percent of GDP of modern economies. At the same time, multi-regional overlapping-generations-models presented by literature on demographic change so far ignored their existence and counterfactually assumed perfect tradability between model regions. Moreover, this thesis introduces the assumption of an increasing preference share for non-tradable goods of old generations. This fact-based as-sumption is also not part of models in relevant literature. rnThese obvious simplifications of common models vis-à-vis reality notwithstanding, this thesis concludes that differences in results between a model featuring non-tradable goods and a common model with perfect tradability are very small. In other words, the common simplifi-cation of ignoring non-tradable goods is unlikely to lead to significant distortions in model results. rnIn order to ensure that differences in results between the ‘new’ model, featuring both non-tradable and tradable goods, and the common model solely reflect deviations due to the more realistic structure of the ‘new’ model, both models are calibrated to match exactly the same benchmark data and thus do not show deviations in their respective baseline steady states.rnA variation analysis performed in this thesis suggests that differences between the common model and a model with non-tradable goods can theoretically be large, but only if the bench-mark tradable goods sector is assumed to be unrealistically small.rnFinally, this thesis analyzes potential real exchange rate effects of demographic change, which could occur due to regional price differences of non-tradable goods. However, results show that shifts in real exchange rate based on these price differences are negligible.rn

Femur Specific Polyaffine Model to Regularize the Log-Domain Demons Registration

Osteoarticular allograft transplantation is a popular treatment method in wide surgical resections with large defects. For this reason hospitals are building bone data banks. Performing the optimal allograft selection on bone banks is crucial to the surgical outcome and patient recovery. However, current approaches are very time consuming hindering an efficient selection. We present an automatic method based on registration of femur bones to overcome this limitation. We introduce a new regularization term for the log-domain demons algorithm. This term replaces the standard Gaussian smoothing with a femur specific polyaffine model. The polyaffine femur model is constructed with two affine (femoral head and condyles) and one rigid (shaft) transformation. Our main contribution in this paper is to show that the demons algorithm can be improved in specific cases with an appropriate model. We are not trying to find the most optimal polyaffine model of the femur, but the simplest model with a minimal number of parameters. There is no need to optimize for different number of regions, boundaries and choice of weights, since this fine tuning will be done automatically by a final demons relaxation step with Gaussian smoothing. The newly developed synthesis approach provides a clear anatomically motivated modeling contribution through the specific three component transformation model, and clearly shows a performance improvement (in terms of anatomical meaningful correspondences) on 146 CT images of femurs compared to a standard multiresolution demons. In addition, this simple model improves the robustness of the demons while preserving its accuracy. The ground truth are manual measurements performed by medical experts.

Lesion characteristics of patients with chronic critical limb ischemia that determine choice of treatment modality

This paper will review the literature in order to define lesion characteristics that determine decision for surgical or endovascular therapy in patients with chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI). The typical pattern of disease is multilevel, infrainguinal disease. The great majority of patients with CLI can be treated by endovascular means, and the pathoanatomical pattern of disease dictates the choice of treatment modality. Long iliac artery occlusions, in particular, if associated with common femoral artery pathology and long superficial femoral artery occlusions crossing the knee joint so far remain a domain of surgery. However, there is an ongoing shift from surgery to endovascular treatment.