Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.

Analysis of dietary pattern impact on weight status for personalised nutrition through on-line advice: the Food4Me Spanish cohort

Obesity prevalence is increasing. The management of this condition requires a detailed analysis of the global risk factors in order to develop personalised advice. This study is aimed to identify current dietary patterns and habits in Spanish population interested in personalised nutrition and investigate associations with weight status. Self-reported dietary and anthropometrical data from the Spanish participants in the Food4Me study, were used in a multidimensional exploratory analysis to define specific dietary profiles. Two opposing factors were obtained according to food groups’ intake: Factor 1 characterised by a more frequent consumption of traditionally considered unhealthy foods; and Factor 2, where the consumption of “Mediterranean diet” foods was prevalent. Factor 1 showed a direct relationship with BMI (β = 0.226; r2 = 0.259; p < 0.001), while the association with Factor 2 was inverse (β = −0.037; r2 = 0.230; p = 0.348). A total of four categories were defined (Prudent, Healthy, Western, and Compensatory) through classification of the sample in higher or lower adherence to each factor and combining the possibilities. Western and Compensatory dietary patterns, which were characterized by high-density foods consumption, showed positive associations with overweight prevalence. Further analysis showed that prevention of overweight must focus on limiting the intake of known deleterious foods rather than exclusively enhance healthy products.

Dying young: a palaeopathological analysis of child health in Roman Britain

Children represent the most vulnerable members of society, and as such provide valuable insight into past lifeways. Adverse environmental conditions translate more readily into the osteological record of children, making them primary evidence for the investigation of ill-health in the past. To date, most information on growing up in Roman Britain has been based on the Classical literature, or discussed in palaeopathological studies with a regional focus, e.g. Dorset or Durnovaria. Thus, the lifestyles and everyday realities of children throughout Britannia remained largely unknown. This study sets out to fill this gap by providing the first large scale analysis of Romano-British children from town and country. The palaeopathological analysis of 1643 non-adult (0-17 years) skeletons, compiled from the literature (N=690) and primary osteological analysis (N=953), from 27 urban and rural settlements has highlighted diverse patterns in non-adult mortality and morbidity. The distribution of ages-at-death suggest that older children and adolescents migrated from country to town, possibly for commencing their working lives. True prevalence rates suggest that caries (1.8%) and enamel hypoplasia (11.4%) were more common in children from major urban towns, whereas children in the countryside displayed higher frequencies of scurvy (6.9%), cribra orbitalia (27.7%), porotic hyperostosis (6.2%) and endocranial lesions (10.9%). Social inequality in late Roman Britain may have been the driving force behind these urban-rural dichotomies. The results may point to exploitation of the peasantry on the one hand, and higher status of the urban population as a more ‘Romanised’ group on the other. Comparison with Iron Age and post-medieval non-adults also demonstrated a decline in health in the Roman period, with some levels of ill-health, particularly in the rural children, similar to those from post-medieval London. This research provides the most comprehensive study of non-adult morbidity and mortality in Roman Britain to date. It has provided new insights into Romano-British lifeways and presents suggestions for further work.

The impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland: a Bayesian chronological analysis using ‘activity events’ as a population proxy

The potential impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on human demography, settlement patterns and culture in Europe and the Near East has emerged as a key theme in current discussion and debate. We test whether this event had an impact on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland, a case study located within the North Atlantic region where the environmental impact of the 8.2 ka event is likely to have been the most severe. By undertaking a Bayesian analysis of the radiocarbon record and using the number of activity events as a proxy for the size of the human population, we find evidence for a dramatic reduction in the Mesolithic population synchronous with the 8.2 ka event. We interpret this as reflecting the demographic collapse of a low density population that lacked the capability to adapt to the rapid onset of new environmental conditions. This impact of the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region lends credence to the possibility of a similar impact on populations in Continental Europe and the Near East.

Osteocyte Density in the Peri-Implant Bone of Immediately Loaded and Submerged Dental Implants

Background: The role of osteocytes in bone structure and function remains partially unresolved. Their participation in mechanotransduction, i.e., the conversion of a physical stimulus into a cellular response, has been hypothesized. The present study was an evaluation of the osteocyte density in the peri-implant bone of immediately loaded and submerged dental implants. Methods: Fourteen male patients were included in the study; all of them were partially edentulous and needed a posterior mandibular restoration. Implants were inserted in these areas; half of the sample was loaded immediately (included in a fixed provisional prosthesis on the same day as implant surgery), whereas the other half was left to heal submerged. Fourteen implants (seven immediately loaded and seven unloaded) were retrieved with a trephine after a healing period of 8 weeks. The specimens were treated to obtain thin ground sections, and histomorphometry was used to evaluate the osteocyte index in the peri-implant bone. Results: A higher and statistically significant number of osteocytes was found in the peri-implant bone around immediately loaded implants (P=0.0081). A correlation between the percentage of bone-implant contact and osteocyte density was found for immediately loaded implants (P=0.0480) but not for submerged implants (P=0.2667). Conclusion: The higher number of osteocytes in the peri-implant bone around immediately loaded implants could be related to the functional adaptation required by the loading stimulus, which also explains the hypothesized involvement of the osteocytes in the maintenance of the bone matrix. J Periodontol 2009;80:499-504.

Outcome analysis of immediately placed, immediately restored implants in the esthetic area: The clinical relevance of different interimplant distances

Background: The purpose of this study was to compare and evaluate bone and soft tissue levels between immediately placed, immediately restored implants positioned in the esthetic anterior region with different interimplant distances (IID). Methods: Forty-nine patients requiring multiple implant restorations in the anterior regions received 152 implants, which were restored immediately. Periapical radiographs and digital images of 99 interimplant sites were taken at the regular follow-up examinations at 0, 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery. They were digitally recorded and analyzed. The presence of the interproximal papilla was assessed and compared to the distances between the bone crest and the contact point between the natural teeth and the restoration crowns. Results: Implants with an IID <2 mm seemed to lose less bone laterally. When the IID was <2 mm, vertical crestal bone loss was significantly greater than in the group with IID >4 mm. The percentage of the interproximal papilla presence decreased when the distance between the bone crest and the contact point between the two restoration crowns was >6 mm and when two implants were placed at a distance >= 4 mm. Conclusions: To guarantee a better esthetic result in immediately placed, immediately restored implants, the contact point between the two prosthetic crowns should be placed at 3 to 4 mm, and never >6 mm, from the bone peak. Two adjacent implants should be placed at a distance >2 and <4 mm.

Response surface analysis of extract yield and flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) obtained by supercritical carbon dioxide extraction

This work evaluated the effect of pressure and temperature on yield and characteristic flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L) extracts obtained by supercritical CO(2) using response surface analysis, which is a simple and efficient method for first inquiries. A complete central composite 2(2) factorial experimental design was applied using temperature (ranging from 40 to 60 degrees C) and pressure (from 150 to 250 bar) as independent variables. A second order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) for the extract yield as affected by pressure and temperature, with better results being achieved at the central point (200 bar and 50 degrees C). For the flavour intensity, a first order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) showing the influence of temperature. Greater characteristic flavour intensity in extracts was obtained for relatively high temperature (> 50 degrees C), Therefore, as far as Brazilian cherry is concerned, optimum conditions for achieving higher extract yield do not necessarily coincide to those for obtaining richer flavour intensity. Industrial relevance: Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) is an emerging clean technology through which one may obtain extracts free from organic solvents. Extract yields from natural products for applications in food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries have been widely disseminated in the literature. Accordingly, two lines of research have industrial relevance, namely, (i) operational optimization studies for high SFE yields and (ii) investigation on important properties extracts are expected to present (so as to define their prospective industrial application). Specifically, this work studied the optimization of SFE process to obtain extracts from a tropical fruit showing high intensity of its characteristic flavour, aiming at promoting its application in natural aroma enrichment of processed foods. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GHASP: an H alpha kinematic survey of spiral and irregular galaxies - IX. The near-infrared, stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relations

We studied, for the first time, the near-infrared, stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relations for a sample of field galaxies taken from a homogeneous Fabry-Perot sample of galaxies [the Gassendi HAlpha survey of SPirals (GHASP) survey]. The main advantage of GHASP over other samples is that the maximum rotational velocities were estimated from 2D velocity fields, avoiding assumptions about the inclination and position angle of the galaxies. By combining these data with 2MASS photometry, optical colours, HI masses and different mass-to-light ratio estimators, we found a slope of 4.48 +/- 0.38 and 3.64 +/- 0.28 for the stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relation, respectively. We found that these values do not change significantly when different mass-to-light ratio recipes were used. We also point out, for the first time, that the rising rotation curves as well as asymmetric rotation curves show a larger dispersion in the Tully-Fisher relation than the flat ones or the symmetric ones. Using the baryonic mass and the optical radius of galaxies, we found that the surface baryonic mass density is almost constant for all the galaxies of this sample. In this study we also emphasize the presence of a break in the NIR Tully-Fisher relation at M(H,K) similar to -20 and we confirm that late-type galaxies present higher total-to-baryonic mass ratios than early-type spirals, suggesting that supernova feedback is actually an important issue in late-type spirals. Due to the well-defined sample selection criteria and the homogeneity of the data analysis, the Tully-Fisher relation for GHASP galaxies can be used as a reference for the study of this relation in other environments and at higher redshifts.

Towards the main sequence: detailed analysis of weak line and post-T Tauri stars

A detailed study was performed for a sample of low-mass pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars, previously identified as weak-line T Tauri stars, which are compared to members of the Tucanae and Horologium Associations. Aiming to verify if there is any pattern of abundances when comparing the young stars at different phases, we selected objects in the range from 1 to 100 Myr, which covers most of PMS evolution. High-resolution optical spectra were acquired at European Southern Observatory and Observatorio do Pico dos Dias. The stellar fundamental parameters effective temperature and gravity were calculated by excitation and ionization equilibria of iron absorption lines. Chemical abundances were obtained via equivalent width calculations and spectral synthesis for 44 per cent of the sample, which shows metallicities within 0.5 dex solar. A classification was developed based on equivalent width of Li I 6708 angstrom and Ha lines and spectral types of the studied stars. This classification allowed a separation of the sample into categories that correspond to different evolutive stages in the PMS. The position of these stars in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram was also inspected in order to estimate their ages and masses. Among the studied objects, it was verified that our sample actually contains seven weak-line T Tauri stars, three are Classical T Tauri, 12 are Fe/Ge PMS stars and 21 are post-T Tauri or young main-sequence stars. An estimation of circumstellar luminosity was obtained using a disc model to reproduce the observed spectral energy distribution. Most of the stars show low levels of circumstellar emission, corresponding to less than 30 per cent of the total emission.

DENSITY PROFILE, VELOCITY ANISOTROPY, AND LINE-OF-SIGHT EXTERNAL CONVERGENCE OF SLACS GRAVITATIONAL LENSES

Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.

Dynamic picture of the inner asteroid belt: implications for the density, size and taxonomic distributions of real objects

In this paper, we construct a dynamic portrait of the inner asteroidal belt. We use information about the distribution of test particles, which were initially placed on a perfectly rectangular grid of initial conditions, after 4.2 Myr of gravitational interactions with the Sun and five planets, from Mars to Neptune. Using the spectral analysis method introduced by Michtchenko et al., the asteroidal behaviour is illustrated in detail on the dynamical, averaged and frequency maps. On the averaged and frequency maps, we superpose information on the proper elements and proper frequencies of real objects, extracted from the data base, AstDyS, constructed by Milani and Knezevic. A comparison of the maps with the distribution of real objects allows us to detect possible dynamical mechanisms acting in the domain under study; these mechanisms are related to mean-motion and secular resonances. We note that the two- and three-body mean-motion resonances and the secular resonances (strong linear and weaker non-linear) have an important role in the diffusive transportation of the objects. Their long-lasting action, overlaid with the Yarkovsky effect, may explain many observed features of the density, size and taxonomic distributions of the asteroids.

Note on ""Continuous matter creation and the acceleration of the universe: the growth of density fluctuations""

Recently, de Roany and Pacheco (Gen Relativ Gravit, doi:10.1007/s10714-010-1069-2) performed a Newtonian analysis on the evolution of perturbations for a class of relativistic cosmological models with Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM) proposed by the present authors (Lima et al. in JCAP 1011:027, 2010). In this note we demonstrate that the basic equations adopted in their work do not recover the specific (unperturbed) CCDM model. Unlike to what happens in the original CCDM cosmology, their basic conclusions refer to a decelerating cosmological model in which there is no transition from a decelerating to an accelerating regime as required by SNe type Ia and complementary observations.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

THE VORONOI TESSELLATION CLUSTER FINDER IN 2+1 DIMENSIONS

We present a detailed description of the Voronoi Tessellation (VT) cluster finder algorithm in 2+1 dimensions, which improves on past implementations of this technique. The need for cluster finder algorithms able to produce reliable cluster catalogs up to redshift 1 or beyond and down to 10(13.5) solar masses is paramount especially in light of upcoming surveys aiming at cosmological constraints from galaxy cluster number counts. We build the VT in photometric redshift shells and use the two-point correlation function of the galaxies in the field to both determine the density threshold for detection of cluster candidates and to establish their significance. This allows us to detect clusters in a self-consistent way without any assumptions about their astrophysical properties. We apply the VT to mock catalogs which extend to redshift 1.4 reproducing the ACDM cosmology and the clustering properties observed in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data. An objective estimate of the cluster selection function in terms of the completeness and purity as a function of mass and redshift is as important as having a reliable cluster finder. We measure these quantities by matching the VT cluster catalog with the mock truth table. We show that the VT can produce a cluster catalog with completeness and purity > 80% for the redshift range up to similar to 1 and mass range down to similar to 10(13.5) solar masses.

The effects of stocking density in physiological parameters and growth of the endangered teleost species piabanha, Brycon insignis (Steindachner, 1877)

This study investigated the effects of stocking density on the growth and fatty acid (FA) of Brycon insignis metabolism. Fingerlings (360) were distributed into eight ponds at two stocking densities (105 and 210 g/m(3)). The analysis of growth showed that the condition factor (K) and the coefficient of variation (CV) for body mass were not affected by stocking density. However, final body mass and length, specific growth rate (SGR), and weight gain (WG) were higher in the low stocking density group, which also presented a higher feed efficiency (FE) and survival (S). By contrast, muscle protein levels were higher in the high stocking density group. The plasma and muscle lipid content were not affected by stocking density, but fish reared at lower stocking density presented higher lipid concentration in the liver, with no differences in hepatosomatic index values. Even with the differences observed in metabolic and growth parameters, plasma cortisol was not affected by stocking density. The FA profile in the muscle and liver neutral fraction were not affected by stocking density, but the FA in the polar fractions differed between the two stocking densities. In the liver, total polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and PUFA n - 3 increased in higher stocking density, mainly due to an increase in docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). In addition, PUFA n - 6 were also increased in the higher stocking density group, mainly due to an increase in arachidonic acid (AA) and docosadienoic acid (22:2n - 6). In the muscle polar fraction, the saturated fatty acids (SFA) and monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) decreased in the animals from the higher stocking density group, and this reduction was compensated by an increase in PUFA n - 3 and PUFA n - 6, mainly the FA with 20-22 carbons (20:4n - 6: 22:4:n - 6; 22:5n - 6, 22:5n - 3, and 22:6n - 3). A different profile was observed for the C18 PUFAs, mainly 18:2n - 6 and 18:4n - 6, which were higher in the lower density stocking group. The data suggest that when living in high stocking density, B. insignis differentially utilizes the hepatic lipids as energy source and remodels the membrane fatty acids, with higher amounts of DHA in the polar muscle fraction compensated for by a decrease in MUFA. The zootechnical and physiological indices reveal that the lower stocking density group achieve overall better performance. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.