Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Biosecurity threats : the design of surveillance systems, based on power and risk

We consider the problem of designing a surveillance system to detect a broad range of invasive species across a heterogeneous sampling frame. We present a model to detect a range of invertebrate invasives whilst addressing the challenges of multiple data sources, stratifying for differential risk, managing labour costs and providing sufficient power of detection.We determine the number of detection devices required and their allocation across the landscape within limiting resource constraints. The resulting plan will lead to reduced financial and ecological costs and an optimal surveillance system.

Emergency department surge capacity : Recommendations of the Australasian surge strategy working group

Background For more than a decade emergency medicine organizations have produced guidelines, training and leadership for disaster management. However to date, there have been limited guidelines for emergency physicians needing to provide a rapid response to a surge in demand. The aim of this study is to identify strategies which may guide surge management in the Emergency Department. Method A working group of individuals experienced in disaster medicine from the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine Disaster Medicine Subcommittee (the Australasian Surge Strategy Working Group) was established to undertake this work. The Working Group used a modified Delphi technique to examine response actions in surge situations. The Working Group identified underlying assumptions from epidemiological and empirical understanding and then identified remedial strategies from literature and from personal experience and collated these within domains of space, staff, supplies, and system operation. Findings These recommendations detail 22 potential actions available to an emergency physician working in the context of surge. The Working Group also provides detailed guidance on surge recognition, triage, patient flow through the emergency department and clinical goals and practices. Discussion These strategies provide guidance to emergency physicians confronting the challenges of a surge in demand. The paper also identifies areas that merit future research including the measurement of surge capacity, constraints to strategy implementation, validation of surge strategies and measurement of strategy impacts on throughput, cost, and quality of care.

Is there something quantum-like about the human mental lexicon?

This talk proceeds from the premise that IR should engage in a more substantial dialogue with cognitive science. After all, how users decide relevance, or how they chose terms to modify a query are processes rooted in human cognition. Recently, there has been a growing literature applying quantum theory (QT) to model cognitive phenomena. This talk will survey recent research, in particular, modelling interference effects in human decision making. One aspect of QT will be illustrated - how quantum entanglement can be used to model word associations in human memory. The implications of this will be briefly discussed in terms of a new approach for modelling concept combinations. Tentative links to human adductive reasoning will also be drawn. The basic theme behind this talk is QT can potentially provide a new genre of information processing models (including search) more aligned with human cognition.

CTA1-DD is an effective adjuvant for targeting anti-chlamydial immunity to the murine genital mucosa

Chlamydia trachomatis is a significant human pathogen with potentially severe disease sequelae in the genital tract, including infertility. A successful vaccine will need to effectively target immunity to the genital mucosa. Intranasal immunisation with cholera toxin (CT) can target immunity to the genital tract, but has the potential to cause neurological side effects. CTA1-DD is a non-toxic potent mucosal adjuvant which combines the enzymatic properties of CT, with a B cell targeting moiety. Here, we demonstrate that intranasal immunisation with CTA1-DD and chlamydial Major Outer Membrane Protein (MOMP) results in the induction of neutralising systemic and mucosal antibodies, and reduces the level of chlamydial shedding following intravaginal challenge with Chlamydia muridarum. Thus, CTA1-DD is an effective adjuvant for vaccine development against Chlamydia trachomatis, and possibly also a range of other genital pathogens.

Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted chlamydia trachomatis infection

Background. We investigated the likely impact of vaccines on the prevalence of and morbidity due to Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) infections in heterosexual populations. Methods.An individual‐based mathematical model of chlamydia transmission was developed and linked to the infection course in chlamydia‐infected individuals. The model describes the impact of a vaccine through its effect on the chlamydial load required to infect susceptible individuals (the “critical load”), the load in infected individuals, and their subsequent infectiousness. The model was calibrated using behavioral, biological, and clinical data. Results.A fully protective chlamydia vaccine administered before sexual debut can theoretically eliminate chlamydia epidemics within 20 years. Partially effective vaccines can still greatly reduce the incidence of chlamydia infection. Vaccines should aim primarily to increase the critical load in susceptible individuals and secondarily to decrease the peak load and/or the duration of infection in vaccinated individuals who become infected. Vaccinating both sexes has a beneficial impact on chlamydia‐related morbidity, but targeting women is more effective than targeting men. Conclusions.Our findings can be used in laboratory settings to evaluate vaccine candidates in animal models, by regulatory bodies in the promotion of candidates for clinical trials, and by public health authorities in deciding on optimal intervention strategies.

Poly-immunoglobulin receptor-mediated transport of IgA into the male genital tract is important for clearance of chlamydia muridarum infection

Problem: Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common sexually transmitted infection worldwide. While infection in females requires a Th1 response for clearance, such a response in males may disrupt the immune privileged nature of the male reproductive tract, potentially contributing to infertility. Method of study: We investigated the role of IgA in protection against an intrapenile Chlamydia muridarum infection of C57BL/6 and pIgR−/− mice. Results: Here, we show that the poly immunoglobulin receptor is the main pathway for IgA transport into the male reproductive tract. The high levels of IgA seen in prostatic fluid of wild-type mice correlate with reduction in chlamydial infection both in vitro and in vivo. Conclusion: These findings indicate that a Chlamydia vaccine that induces neutralizing IgA in the prostate will aid in the protection against infection in males.

Clinical whole-body skin examination reduces the incidence of thick melanomas

Survival from melanoma is strongly related to tumour thickness, thus earlier diagnosis has the potential to reduce mortality from this disease. However, in the absence of conclusive evidence that clinical skin examination reduces mortality, evidence-based assessments do not recommend population screening. We aimed to assess whether clinical whole-body skin examination is associated with a reduced incidence of thick melanoma and also whether screening is associated with an increased incidence of thin lesions (possible overdiagnosis). A population-based case-control study of all Queensland residents aged 20-75 years with a histologically confirmed first primary invasive cutaneous melanoma diagnosed between January 2000 and December 2003. Telephone interviews were completed by 3,762 eligible cases (78.0%) and 3,824 eligible controls (50.4%) Whole-body clinical skin examination in the three years before diagnosis was associated with a 14% lower risk of being diagnosed with a thick melanoma (>0.75mm) (OR= 0.86, 95% CI=0.75, 0.98). Risk decreased for melanomas of increasing thickness: the risk of being diagnosed with a melanoma 0.76-1.49mm was reduced by 7% (OR=0.93, 95% CI 0.79, 1.10), by 17% for melanomas 1.50-2.99mm (OR=0.83, 95% CI=0.65, 1.05) and by 40% for melanomas ≥3mm (OR=0.60, 95% CI=0.43, 0.83). Screening was associated with a 38% higher risk of being diagnosed with a thin invasive melanoma (≤0.75mm) (OR=1.38, 95% CI=1.22, 1.56). This is the strongest evidence to date that whole-body clinical skin examination reduces the incidence of thick melanoma. Because survival from melanoma is strongly related to tumour thickness, these results suggest that screening would reduce melanoma mortality.

Polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) concentrations decrease with age : analysis of pooled human blood serum in the Australian population

Introduction Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are considered to be a cost effective and efficient way to reduce the possibility of product ignition and inhibit the spread of fire, thereby limiting harm caused by fires. PBDEs are incorporated into a wide variety of manufactured products and are now considered an ubiquitous contaminant found worldwide in biological and environmental samples . In comparison to “traditional” persistent organic pollutants (POPs), the exposure modes of PBDEs in humans are less well defined, although dietary sources, inhalation (air/particulate matter) and dust ingestion have been reported 2-4. Limited investigations of population specific factors such as age or gender and PBDE concentrations report: no conclusive correlation by age in adults ; higher concentrations in children ; similar concentrations in maternal and cord blood ; and no gender differences . After preliminary findings of higher PBDE concentrations in children than in adults in Australia11 we sought to investigate at what age the PBDE concentrations peaked in an effort to focus exposure studies. This investigation involved the collection of blood samples from young age groups and the development of a simple model to predict PBDE concentrations by age in Australia.