ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations.

BACKGROUND: The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. RESULTS: Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. CONCLUSION: ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

Allergy to betalactam antibiotics in children: results of a 20-year study based on clinical history, skin and challenge tests.

To cite this article: Ponvert C, Perrin Y, Bados-Albiero A, Le Bourgeois M, Karila C, Delacourt C, Scheinmann P, De Blic J. Allergy to betalactam antibiotics in children: results of a 20-year study based on clinical history, skin and challenge tests. Pediatr Allergy Immunol 2011; 22: 411-418. ABSTRACT: Studies based on skin and challenge tests have shown that 12-60% of children with suspected betalactam hypersensitivity were allergic to betalactams. Responses in skin and challenge tests were studied in 1865 children with suspected betalactam allergy (i) to confirm or rule out the suspected diagnosis; (ii) to evaluate diagnostic value of immediate and non-immediate responses in skin and challenge tests; (iii) to determine frequency of betalactam allergy in those children, and (iv) to determine potential risk factors for betalactam allergy. The work-up was completed in 1431 children, of whom 227 (15.9%) were diagnosed allergic to betalactams. Betalactam hypersensitivity was diagnosed in 50 of the 162 (30.9%) children reporting immediate reactions and in 177 of the 1087 (16.7%) children reporting non-immediate reactions (p < 0.001). The likelihood of betalactam hypersensitivity was also significantly higher in children reporting anaphylaxis, serum sickness-like reactions, and (potentially) severe skin reactions such as acute generalized exanthematic pustulosis, Stevens-Johnson syndrome, and drug reaction with systemic symptoms than in other children (p < 0.001). Skin tests diagnosed 86% of immediate and 31.6% of non-immediate sensitizations. Cross-reactivity and/or cosensitization among betalactams was diagnosed in 76% and 14.7% of the children with immediate and non-immediate hypersensitivity, respectively. The number of children diagnosed allergic to betalactams decreased with time between the reaction and the work-up, probably because the majority of children with severe and worrying reactions were referred for allergological work-up more promptly than the other children. Sex, age, and atopy were not risk factors for betalactam hypersensitivity. In conclusion, we confirm in numerous children that (i) only a few children with suspected betalactam hypersensitivity are allergic to betalactams; (ii) the likelihood of betalactam allergy increases with earliness and/or severity of the reactions; (iii) although non-immediate-reading skin tests (intradermal and patch tests) may diagnose non-immediate sensitizations in children with non-immediate reactions to betalactams (maculopapular rashes and potentially severe skin reactions especially), the diagnostic value of non-immediate-reading skin tests is far lower than the diagnostic value of immediate-reading skin tests, most non-immediate sensitizations to betalactams being diagnosed by means of challenge tests; (iv) cross-reactivity and/or cosensitizations among betalactams are much more frequent in children reporting immediate and/or anaphylactic reactions than in the other children; (v) age, sex and personal atopy are not significant risk factors for betalactam hypersensitivity; and (vi) the number of children with diagnosed allergy to betalactams (of the immediate-type hypersensitivity especially) decreases with time between the reaction and allergological work-up. Finally, based on our experience, we also propose a practical diagnostic approach in children with suspected betalactam hypersensitivity.

An integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: The ASTRAL score.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a simple, integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using variables readily available after emergency room admission. METHODS: Logistic regression was performed in the derivation cohort of previously independent patients with AIS (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne [ASTRAL]) to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score >2). An integer-based point-scoring system for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated by their β-coefficients; the overall score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The model was validated internally using a 2-fold cross-validation technique and externally in 2 independent cohorts (Athens and Vienna Stroke Registries). RESULTS: Age (A), severity of stroke (S) measured by admission NIH Stroke Scale score, stroke onset to admission time (T), range of visual fields (R), acute glucose (A), and level of consciousness (L) were identified as independent predictors of unfavorable outcome in 1,645 patients in ASTRAL. Their β-coefficients were multiplied by 4 and rounded to the closest integer to generate the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score in the ASTRAL cohort was 0.850. The score was well calibrated in the derivation (p = 0.43) and validation cohorts (0.22 [Athens, n = 1,659] and 0.49 [Vienna, n = 653]). AUCs were 0.937 (Athens), 0.771 (Vienna), and 0.902 (when pooled). An ASTRAL score of 31 indicates a 50% likelihood of unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score is a simple integer-based score to predict functional outcome using 6 readily available items at hospital admission. It performed well in double external validation and may be a useful tool for clinical practice and stroke research.

Improvement of therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib by Bayesian prediction of trough levels. Personalized drug dosage

Aims: Plasma concentrations of imatinib differ largely between patients despite same dosage, owing to large inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. As the drug concentration at the end of the dosage interval (Cmin) correlates with treatment response and tolerability, monitoring of Cmin is suggested for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib. Due to logistic difficulties, random sampling during the dosage interval is however often performed in clinical practice, thus rendering the respective results not informative regarding Cmin values.Objectives: (I) To extrapolate randomly measured imatinib concentrations to more informative Cmin using classical Bayesian forecasting. (II) To extend the classical Bayesian method to account for correlation between PK parameters. (III) To evaluate the predictive performance of both methods.Methods: 31 paired blood samples (random and trough levels) were obtained from 19 cancer patients under imatinib. Two Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) methods were implemented: (A) a classical method ignoring correlation between PK parameters, and (B) an extended one accounting for correlation. Both methods were applied to estimate individual PK parameters, conditional on random observations and covariate-adjusted priors from a population PK model. The PK parameter estimates were used to calculate trough levels. Relative prediction errors (PE) were analyzed to evaluate accuracy (one-sample t-test) and to compare precision between the methods (F-test to compare variances).Results: Both Bayesian MAP methods allowed non-biased predictions of individual Cmin compared to observations: (A) - 7% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 4 %, p = 0.15) and (B) - 4% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 10 %, p = 0.69). Relative standard deviations of actual observations from predictions were 22% (A) and 30% (B), i.e. comparable to the intraindividual variability reported. Precision was not improved by taking into account correlation between PK parameters (p = 0.22).Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian extrapolation to maximum likelihood Cmin. Classical Bayesian estimation can be applied for TDM without the need to include correlation between PK parameters. Both methods could be adapted in the future to evaluate other individual pharmacokinetic measures correlated to clinical outcomes, such as area under the curve(AUC).

Who wrote the Second Ave maris stella of Tomás Luis de Victoria?

Contrary to what Felipe Pedrell indicates, the second Ave maris stella in his Victoria's collected works (vol. V, 1908, pp. 100-3, n° 33) doesn't appear in the collection published in 1600 in Madrid by the composer, nor in any other of the musician's books. In the 1600 edition, Victoria reissues the two first verses (plainchant followed by polyphony) of the Ave maris stella published in 1576 and then again in 1581. The earliest source of the problematic Ave maris stella is Munich, Bayerische Staatsbibliothek, Musik-Abteilung, 2 Mus. pr. 23 handschriftlicher Beiband, dating from the third quarter oft he seventeenth century. This source is a manuscrit that runs as an appendix to the 1581 edition of Victoria's hymns. No attributions are given in the manuscript. The first attributions of the piece to Victoria arise in the nineteenth century, in manuscripts copied by Johann Michael Hauber, Johann Caspar Aiblinger, August Baumgartner and Carl Proske, and preserved in Munich and Regensburg. Proske pubished the piece in his Musica divina in 1859 (Annus primus, vol. III, pp. 419-24). The most probable hypothesis ist that Pedrell had knowledge of the second Ave maris stella, under the spanish composer's name, via Proske's Musica divina. In all likelihood the piece is not by Victoria, not least because the composer has never written odd polyphonic verses of hymns. In his Studies in the Music of Tomás Luis de Victoria (2001), Eugene Casjen Cramer relies on the supposed authenticity of the work to ascribe the others pieces of Munich, Bayerische Staatsbibliothek, Musik-Abteilung, 2 Mus. pr. 23 handschriftlicher Beiband to the composer. These attributions should therefore be refuted.

Infections and functionnal impairment in nursing home residents : a reciprocal relationship

RESUME: Contexte : l'objectif de cette étude de cohorte prospective était de déterminer la relation entre la survenue d'infections et la dépendance fonctionnelle chez des résidents d'établissements de long séjour durant une période de 6 mois. Population et méthode : les patients inclus (1324 résidents) étaient âgés de 65 ans et plus (âge moyen 85.7 ans, 76.6% de femmes), étaient des résidents de 39 EMS du canton de Vaud. Au baseline, des données démographiques, médicales, concernant les facteurs de risque et protecteurs des infections ont été récoltées. Au cours du suivi de 6 mois, les infirmières des EMS ont documenté la survenue de symptômes et signes d'infection en utilisant les critères développés spécifiquement par l'APIC pour les établissements de long séjour. Les mesures du status fonctionnel ont été évaluées au baseline, à 3 mois et à 6 mois. Deux outcomes différents ont été utilisés : a) le déclin fonctionnel défini comme le décès ou une diminution des capacités fonctionnelles au suivi, b) le status fonctionnel mesuré par une échelle standardisée. Résultats : à la fin du suivi, la mortalité était de 14.6%, similaire pour les résidents avec et sans infection (16.2% versus 13.1%, P .11). Durant les 2 périodes de suivi de 3 mois, les sujets ayant présenté une ou plusieurs infections avaient des odds de déclin fonctionnel plus élevés, y compris après ajustement pour les caractéristiques démographiques, médicales et fonctionnelles du baseline, ainsi que la survenue de nouvelles maladies (odds ratio ajustés (OR) = 1.6, intervalle de confiance à 95% (IC) = 1.2-2.2, P = .002 et OR = 1.5, 95% IC= 1.1-2.0, P= .008, respectivement). Comparés aux résidents non infectés, les odds de déclin fonctionnel augmentaient significativement et graduellement chez ceux ayant eu une, respectivement 2 infections ou plus. L'analyse prédisant le score fonctionnel (restreinte aux sujets ayant survécu) a donné des résultats similaires. Finalement, une analyse de survie prédisant le temps jusqu'à la première infection a confirmé une augmentation progressive de la probabilité d'infection chez les sujets avec dépendance fonctionnelle modérée, respectivement sévère, comparés aux sujets indépendants à la ligne de base. Conclusion : chez les résidents de long séjour, les infections sont à la fois cause et conséquence de la dépendance fonctionnelle. Des études futures devraient être entreprises pour investiguer si des programmes de prévention des infections peuvent également contribuer à prévenir le déclin fonctionnel, un facteur important pour la qualité de vie de ces résidents. ABSTRACT: Objectives: To determine the relationship between infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents. Design: Prospective cohort study (follow-up period, 6 months). Setting: Thirty-nine nursing homes in western Switzerland. Participants: A total of 1,324 residents aged 65 and older (mean age 85.7; 76.6% female) who agreed to participate, or their proxies, by oral informed consent. Measurements: Functional status measured every 3 months. Two different outcomes were used: (a) functional decline defined as death or decreased function at follow-up and (b) functional status score using a standardized measure. Results: At the end of follow-up, mortality was 14.6%, not different for those with and without infection (16.2% vs 13.1%, P= .11) During both 3-month periods, subjects with infection had higher odds of functional decline, even after adjustment for baseline characteristics and occurrence of a new illness (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-2.2, P = .002, and AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.0, P .008, respectively). The odds of decline increased in a stepwise fashion in patients with zero, one, and two or more infections. The analyses predicting functional status score (restricted to subjects who survived) gave similar results. A survival analysis predicting time to first infection confirmed a stepwise greater likelihood of infection in subjects -with moderate and severe impairment at baseline than in subjects with no or mild functional impairment at baseline. Conclusion: Infections appear to be both a cause and a consequence of functional impairment in nursing home residents. Further studies should be undertaken to investigate whether effective infection control programs can also contribute to preventing functional decline, an important component of these residents' quality of life.

Biometrical analysis and selection of tetraploid progenies of Panicum maximum using mixed model methods

The objectives of this work were to estimate the genetic and phenotypic parameters and to predict the genetic and genotypic values of the selection candidates obtained from intraspecific crosses in Panicum maximum as well as the performance of the hybrid progeny of the existing and projected crosses. Seventy-nine intraspecific hybrids obtained from artificial crosses among five apomictic and three sexual autotetraploid individuals were evaluated in a clonal test with two replications and ten plants per plot. Green matter yield, total and leaf dry matter yields and leaf percentage were evaluated in five cuts per year during three years. Genetic parameters were estimated and breeding and genotypic values were predicted using the restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction procedure (REML/BLUP). The dominant genetic variance was estimated by adjusting the effect of full-sib families. Low magnitude individual narrow sense heritabilities (0.02-0.05), individual broad sense heritabilities (0.14-0.20) and repeatability measured on an individual basis (0.15-0.21) were obtained. Dominance effects for all evaluated characteristics indicated that breeding strategies that explore heterosis must be adopted. Less than 5% increase in the parameter repeatability was obtained for a three-year evaluation period and may be the criterion to determine the maximum number of years of evaluation to be adopted, without compromising gain per cycle of selection. The identification of hybrid candidates for future cultivars and of those that can be incorporated into the breeding program was based on the genotypic and breeding values, respectively. The prediction of the performance of the hybrid progeny, based on the breeding values of the progenitors, permitted the identification of the best crosses and indicated the best parents to use in crosses.

Development of MASH TL-3 Transition Between Guardrail and Portable Concrete Barriers, TPF-5(081), 2014

Often, road construction causes the need to create a work zone. In these scenarios, portable concrete barriers (PCBs) are typically installed to shield workers and equipment from errant vehicles as well as prevent motorists from striking other roadside hazards. For an existing W-beam guardrail system installed adjacent to the roadway and near the work zone, guardrail sections are removed in order to place the portable concrete barrier system. The focus of this research study was to develop a proper stiffness transition between W-beam guardrail and portable concrete barrier systems. This research effort was accomplished through development and refinement of design concepts using computer simulation with LS-DYNA. Several design concepts were simulated, and design metrics were used to evaluate and refine each concept. These concepts were then analyzed and ranked based on feasibility, likelihood of success, and ease of installation. The rankings were presented to the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for selection of a preferred design alternative. Next, a Critical Impact Point (CIP) study was conducted, while additional analyses were performed to determine the critical attachment location and a reduced installation length for the portable concrete barriers. Finally, an additional simulation effort was conducted in order to evaluate the safety performance of the transition system under reverse-direction impact scenarios as well as to select the CIP. Recommendations were also provided for conducting a Phase II study and evaluating the nested Midwest Guardrail System (MGS) configuration using three Test Level 3 (TL-3) full-scale crash tests according to the criteria provided in the Manual for Assessing Safety Hardware, as published by the American Association of Safety Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO).

Man-bites-dog business cycles

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it isand this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, weanalyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are morelikely to be observed after unusual events. Such signals may increase both uncertainty anddisagreement among agents and when embedded in a simple business cycle model, can helpus understand why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregatevariables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistentperiods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolutechanges in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations as measuredby survey data. These results are consequences of optimal updating by agents when theavailability of some signals is positively correlated with tail-events. The model is estimatedby likelihood based methods using individual survey responses and a quarterly time seriesof total factor productivity along with standard aggregate time series. The estimated modelsuggests that there have been episodes in recent US history when the impact on outputof innovations to productivity of a given magnitude was more than eight times as largecompared to other times.

Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

The "handwriting brain": a meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies of motor versus orthographic processes.

INTRODUCTION: Handwriting is a modality of language production whose cerebral substrates remain poorly known although the existence of specific regions is postulated. The description of brain damaged patients with agraphia and, more recently, several neuroimaging studies suggest the involvement of different brain regions. However, results vary with the methodological choices made and may not always discriminate between "writing-specific" and motor or linguistic processes shared with other abilities. METHODS: We used the "Activation Likelihood Estimate" (ALE) meta-analytical method to identify the cerebral network of areas commonly activated during handwriting in 18 neuroimaging studies published in the literature. Included contrasts were also classified according to the control tasks used, whether non-specific motor/output-control or linguistic/input-control. These data were included in two secondary meta-analyses in order to reveal the functional role of the different areas of this network. RESULTS: An extensive, mainly left-hemisphere network of 12 cortical and sub-cortical areas was obtained; three of which were considered as primarily writing-specific (left superior frontal sulcus/middle frontal gyrus area, left intraparietal sulcus/superior parietal area, right cerebellum) while others related rather to non-specific motor (primary motor and sensorimotor cortex, supplementary motor area, thalamus and putamen) or linguistic processes (ventral premotor cortex, posterior/inferior temporal cortex). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis provides a description of the cerebral network of handwriting as revealed by various types of neuroimaging experiments and confirms the crucial involvement of the left frontal and superior parietal regions. These findings provide new insights into cognitive processes involved in handwriting and their cerebral substrates.

Benzodiazepine overtreatment in status epilepticus is related to higher need of intubation and longer hospitalization.

Benzodiazepine (BDZ), a widely recognized first-line status epilepticus (SE) treatment, may lead to respiratory depression. This cohort study investigates the effect of BDZ doses in SE patients in terms of morbidity and mortality. It considers incident SE episodes from a prospective registry (2009-2012), comparing patients receiving standard BDZ dose to those receiving exceeding doses (>30% above recommended dose), in terms of likelihood to receive intubation, morbidity, and mortality. Duration of hospitalization was assessed for subjects needing intubation for airways protection (not for refractory SE treatment) versus matched subjects not admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). We identified 29 subjects receiving "excessive" and 173 "standard" BDZ dose; 45% of the overtreated patients were intubated for airways protection, but only 8% in the standard-dose group (p < 0.001). However, both groups presented similar clinical outcomes: 50% returned to baseline, 40% acquired a new handicap, and 10% died. Orotracheal intubation due to airways protection was associated with significantly longer hospitalization (mean 2 weeks vs. 1 week, p = 0.008). In conclusion, although administration of excessive BDZ doses in SE treatment does not seem to influence outcome, it is related to higher respiratory depression risk and longer hospitalization, potentially exposing patients to additional complications and costs.

Heritability of blood pressure in the swiss population: the family-based skipogh study

Objective: Blood pressure is known to aggregate in families. Yet, heritability estimates are population-specific and no Swiss data have been published so far. Moreover, little is known on the heritability of the white-coat effect. We investigated the heritability of various blood pressure (BP) traits in a Swiss population-based sample. Methods: SKIPOGH (Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension) is a family-based multi-centre (Lausanne, Bern, Geneva) cross-sectional study that examines the role of genes in determining BP levels. Office and 24-hour ambulatory BP were measured using validated devices (A&D UM-101 and Diasys Integra). We estimated the heritability of systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), heart rate (HR), pulse pressure (PP), proportional white-coat effect (i.e. [office BP-mean ambulatory daytime BP]/mean ambulatory daytime BP), and nocturnal BP dipping (difference between mean ambulatory daytime and night-time BP) using a maximum likelihood method implemented in the SAGE software. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and study centre. Analyses involving PP were additionally adjusted for DBP. Results: The 517 men and 579 women included in this analysis had a mean (}SD) age of 46.8 (17.8) and 47.8 (17.1) years and a mean BMI of 26.0 (4.2) and 24.2 (4.6) kg/m2, respectively. Heritability estimates (}SE) for office SBP, DBP, HR, and PP were 0.20}0.07, 0.20}0.07, 0.39}0.08, and 0.16}0.07 (all P<0.01). Heritability estimates for 24-hour ambulatory SBP, DBP, HR, and PP were, respectively, 0.39}0.07, 0.30}.08, 0.19}0.09, and 0.25}0.08 (all P<0.05). The heritability of the white-coat effect was 0.29}0.07 for SBP and 0.31}0.07 for DBP (both P<0.001). The heritability of nocturnal BP dipping was 0.15}0.08 for SBP and 0.22}0.07 for DBP (both P<0.05). Conclusions: We found that the white-coat effect is significantly heritable. Our findings show that BP traits are moderately heritable in a multi-centric study in Switzerland, in line with previous population-based studies, justifying the ongoing search for genetic determinants in this field.

Protocol for a systematic review on the extent of non-publication of research studies and associated study characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Methodological research has found that non-published studies often have different results than those that are published, a phenomenon known as publication bias. When results are not published, or are published selectively based on the direction or the strength of the findings, healthcare professionals and consumers of healthcare cannot base their decision-making on the full body of current evidence. METHODS: As part of the OPEN project (http://www.open-project.eu) we will conduct a systematic review with the following objectives:1. To determine the proportion and/or rate of non-publication of studies by systematically reviewing methodological research projects that followed up a cohort of studies that a. received research ethics committee (REC) approval,b. were registered in trial registries, orc. were presented as abstracts at conferences.2. To assess the association of study characteristics (for example, direction and/or strength of findings) with likelihood of full publication.To identify reports of relevant methodological research projects we will conduct electronic database searches, check reference lists, and contact experts. Published and unpublished projects will be included. The inclusion criteria are as follows:a. RECs: methodological research projects that examined the subsequent proportion and/or rate of publication of studies that received approval from RECs;b. Trial registries: methodological research projects that examine the subsequent proportion and/or rate of publication of studies registered in trial registries;c. Conference abstracts: methodological research projects that examine the subsequent proportion and/or rate of full publication of studies which were initially presented at conferences as abstracts.Primary outcomes: Proportion/rate of published studies; time to full publication (mean/median; cumulative publication rate by time).Secondary outcomes: Association of study characteristics with full publication.The different questions (a, b, and c) will be investigated separately. Data synthesis will involve a combination of descriptive and statistical summaries of the included methodological research projects. DISCUSSION: Results are expected to be publicly available in mid 2013.

The effect of n-3 enriched nutrition therapy on post-operative cognitive dysfunction after cardiac surgery

Background: Postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) occurs frequently after cardiac surgery. Some data suggest that inflammation plays a key role in the development of POCD. N-3 fatty acids have been shown to have a beneficial effect on inflammation. We hypothesised that perioperative n-3 enriched nutrition therapy would reduce the incidence of POCD in this group of patients. Methods: Randomized, double blind placebo controlled trial in patients aged 65 or older undergoing elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. 2x 250 mL placebo (Ensure Plus™, Abbott Nutrition) or n-3 enriched nutrition therapy (ProSure™ Abbott Nutrition) were administered for ten days starting 5 days prior to surgery. Cognition was assessed preoperatively and 7 days after surgery with the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease - Neuropsychological Assessment Battery (CERAD-NAB) [1]. Results: 16 patients were included. Mean age was 72 } 5.3 for placebo and 75 } 4.8 for ProSure™ respectively. CRP and IL-6 did not differ significantly between groups preoperatively and on postoperative days 1, 3, and 7. Preoperative CERAD total scores were 86 } 10 and 81 } 9 (p = n.s.) for Placebo and ProSure™, respectively. Postoperative scores were 88 } 12, and 77 } 19 (p = n.s.) The change in score was not different between the two groups (Placebo: +3 } 5; ProSure: -5 } 11). Conclusion: In this very small sample no effect of preoperatively started n-3 enriched nutritional supplements on inflammation or cognitive functions were detected. However, there is a large likelihood of a type II error and more patients need to be included to assess possible beneficial effects of this intervention in elderly patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. 1 Chandler MJ, et al. Neurology. 2005;65:102-6.