Interannual and interdecadal oscillations in hydrological variables: Sources and modeling of the persistence in the Elbe River Basin

Wenn man die Existenz von physikalischen Mechanismen ignoriert, die für die Struktur hydrologischer Zeitreihen verantwortlich sind, kann das zu falschen Schlussfolgerungen bzgl. des Vorhandenseins möglicher Gedächtnis (memory) -Effekte, d.h. von Persistenz, führen. Die hier vorgelegte Doktorarbeit spürt der niedrigfrequenten klimatischen Variabilität innerhalb den hydrologischen Zyklus nach und bietet auf dieser "Reise" neue Einsichten in die Transformation der charakteristischen Eigenschaften von Zeitreihen mit einem Langzeitgedächtnis. Diese Studie vereint statistische Methoden der Zeitreihenanalyse mit empirisch-basierten Modelltechniken, um operative Modelle zu entwickeln, die in der Lage sind (1) die Dynamik des Abflusses zu modellieren, (2) sein zukünftiges Verhalten zu prognostizieren und (3) die Abflusszeitreihen an unbeobachteten Stellen abzuschätzen. Als solches präsentiert die hier vorgelegte Dissertation eine ausführliche Untersuchung zu den Ursachen der niedrigfrequenten Variabilität von hydrologischen Zeitreihen im deutschen Teil des Elbe-Einzugsgebietes, den Folgen dieser Variabilität und den physikalisch basierten Reaktionen von Oberflächen- und Grundwassermodellen auf die niedrigfrequenten Niederschlags-Eingangsganglinien. Die Doktorarbeit gliedert sich wie folgt: In Kapitel 1 wird als Hintergrundinformation das Hurst Phänomen beschrieben und ein kurzer Rückblick auf diesbezügliche Studien gegeben. Das Kapitel 2 diskutiert den Einfluss der Präsenz von niedrigfrequenten periodischen Zeitreihen auf die Zuverlässigkeit verschiedener Hurst-Parameter-Schätztechniken. Kapitel 3 korreliert die niedrigfrequente Niederschlagsvariabilität mit dem Index der Nord-Atlantischen Ozillations (NAO). Kapitel 4-6 sind auf den deutschen Teil des Elbe-Einzugsgebietes fokussiert. So werden in Kapitel 4 die niedrigfrequenten Variabilitäten der unterschiedlichen hydro-meteorologischen Parameter untersucht und es werden Modelle beschrieben, die die Dynamik dieser Niedrigfrequenzen und deren zukünftiges Verhalten simulieren. Kapitel 5 diskutiert die mögliche Anwendung der Ergebnisse für die charakteristische Skalen und die Verfahren der Analyse der zeitlichen Variabilität auf praktische Fragestellungen im Wasserbau sowie auf die zeitliche Bestimmung des Gebiets-Abflusses an unbeobachteten Stellen. Kapitel 6 verfolgt die Spur der Niedrigfrequenzzyklen im Niederschlag durch die einzelnen Komponenten des hydrologischen Zyklus, nämlich dem Direktabfluss, dem Basisabfluss, der Grundwasserströmung und dem Gebiets-Abfluss durch empirische Modellierung. Die Schlussfolgerungen werden im Kapitel 7 präsentiert. In einem Anhang werden technische Einzelheiten zu den verwendeten statistischen Methoden und die entwickelten Software-Tools beschrieben.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

A Factor analysis of hidrochemical composition of Llobregat river basin

Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing models between end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework. We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study. We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables that lay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hidden components, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members. We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained total variance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphical representation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysis of diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, except fertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition. This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations are intrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

Analysis of Pleistocene paleodrainage evolution in the Po Basin (Italy) by multivariate statistical techniques

In order to obtain a high-resolution Pleistocene stratigraphy, eleven continuously cored boreholes, 100 to 220m deep were drilled in the northern part of the Po Plain by Regione Lombardia in the last five years. Quantitative provenance analysis (QPA, Weltje and von Eynatten, 2004) of Pleistocene sands was carried out by using multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis, PCA, and similarity analysis) on an integrated data set, including high-resolution bulk petrography and heavy-mineral analyses on Pleistocene sands and of 250 major and minor modern rivers draining the southern flank of the Alps from West to East (Garzanti et al, 2004; 2006). Prior to the onset of major Alpine glaciations, metamorphic and quartzofeldspathic detritus from the Western and Central Alps was carried from the axial belt to the Po basin longitudinally parallel to the SouthAlpine belt by a trunk river (Vezzoli and Garzanti, 2008). This scenario rapidly changed during the marine isotope stage 22 (0.87 Ma), with the onset of the first major Pleistocene glaciation in the Alps (Muttoni et al, 2003). PCA and similarity analysis from core samples show that the longitudinal trunk river at this time was shifted southward by the rapid southward and westward progradation of transverse alluvial river systems fed from the Central and Southern Alps. Sediments were transported southward by braided river systems as well as glacial sediments transported by Alpine valley glaciers invaded the alluvial plain. Kew words: Detrital modes; Modern sands; Provenance; Principal Components Analysis; Similarity, Canberra Distance; palaeodrainage

Propuesta de un curso de formación a distancia para profesores de educación infantil, en el uso de las nuevas tecnologías (ordenador), en la provincia de Paraná, Brasil.

Objetivos: Proporcionar formación para la capacitación del profesor de educación infantil en el uso del ordenador en el proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje, a través de una red de capacitación, basada en la modalidad semipresencial. Desarrollar en los participantes una actitud crítica y reflexiva respecto a la importancia del uso de las Nuevas Tecnologías en educación infantil. Potencia la utilización del ordenador como medio que facilite el aprendizaje en la educación infantil. Muestra: Profesores de educación infantil de la Provincia de Paraná, en Brasil. Proceso: Revisión de la literatura existente relacionada con la temática. Instrumentos: Revisión documental. Técnicas: Análisis de contenido y análisis comparativo. Resultados: La investigación realiza el marco contextual en el cual se va a desarrollar la propuesta formativa, realiza un recorrido por la legislación y la política educativa brasileña, resaltando las características propias de la región donde se llevará a cabo la propuesta formativa. Analiza las posibilidades de las nuevas tecnologías en la educación y la influencia en las teorías del aprendizaje, centrando la investigación en el uso del vídeo, la televisión y el ordenador. Se analiza la formación del profesor de educación infantil en Paraná, Brasil, relativa a las nuevas tecnologías y las modalidades de enseñanza, profundizando sobre la educación a distancia, ya que la propuesta aquí realizada utiliza la modalidad semipresencial para su puesta en práctica, combinando las clases presenciales con la educación a distancia. Finalmente, se presenta una 'Propuesta de formación a distancia para profesores de educación infantil'. Conclusiones: El avance de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación, induce a cambios en la sociedad que modifica las condiciones de trabajo, valores y el perfil sociocultural. La investigación promueve la incorporación de las tecnologías desde educación infantil y para ello es preciso que los educadores estén formados. La propuesta se dirige al profesorado de la provincia de Paraná, en Brasil, está planteada para que el profesorado adquiera las competencias necesarias que les permita incorporar las nuevas tecnologías en los procesos educativos que se desarrollen en los centros educativos. La educación necesita profesionales comprometidos con la realidad social, que lleven a sus aulas las aportaciones tecnológicas y sean capaces de utilizar y aplicar las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación en la educación. Se destaca la importancia de la formación de los futuros profesores en las Universidades y la formación permanente del profesorado que está en ejercicio.

Basin-scale hydrodynamics in a Mediterranean reservoir. Implications for the phytoplankton dynamics

Procesos hidrodinámicos determinan, en un alto grado la calidad del agua en embalse, sin embargo dichos procesos han sido tradicionalmente olvidados en la gestión de embalse. En esta tesis se presentan evidencias de los principales procesos hidrodinámicos que ocurren en un embalse Mediterráneo a escala de cuenca a través de campañas experimentales y modelización numérica; y su influencia en la dinámica de poblaciones de fitoplancton. Dichos procesos son principalmente la generación de ondas internas o secas y la intrusión del río. La presencia de viento periódico genera secas forzadas, amplificando los modos cercanos al periodo del viento, de manera que modos verticales altos, considerados como raros en la naturaleza, tienden a dominar en el sistema.

Mortalidade Materna no Paraná: o que mostra a produção científica nos últimos 10 anos?

A mortalidade materna atrai inúmeras discussões e preocupações no Paraná visto que reflete a qualidade da assistência prestada nos serviços de saúde, bem como a operacionalização das políticas públicas voltadas à saúde da mulher. O objetivo deste trabalho foi conhecer o perfil epidemiológico da mortalidade materna no Estado do Paraná, por meio de revisão de estudos sobre o tema. Trata-se de uma revisão sistemática da literatura, realizada através da busca eletrônica de artigos científicos publicados entre 2000 e 2010, nas bases de dados LILACS e SciELO. Identificaram-se inicialmente 30 artigos. Após aplicação dos critérios de inclusão e exclusão restaram 09 artigos. A comparação dos dados mostrou queda da RMM no Estado. Prevaleceram as causas obstétricas diretas, com predomínio das doenças hipertensivas. Concluiu-se que apesar de sua relevância, são poucos os artigos sobre mortalidade materna no Estado do Paraná. A RMM, embora em declínio, permanece em níveis elevados. Tais dados são absolutamente necessários para se ter uma visão do quadro epidemiológico. Eles permitem identificar os problemas e/ou falhas e possibilitam a formulação de propostas intervencionistas no sentido de diminuir os coeficientes de mortalidade materna. Ações mais efetivas para redução das mortes maternas evitáveis no Estado, ainda são imprescindíveis.

Infância perdida : o retrato do trabalho infantil no Paraná e os reflexos na Educação no final do século XX (década de 1990)

Este estudo pretende refletir acerca do trabalho infantil à luz das condições propostas de erradicação dessa modalidade no Estado do Paraná. Utilizando como fonte de pesquisa a imprensa diária e documentos oficiais da década de 1990 do século XX, buscou-se analisar as matérias estampadas nos jornais do referido Estado que faziam parte do acervo da Casa da Memória e Biblioteca Pública do Paraná, aproximando-os com os dados oficiais apresentados nos mapas de indicativos do trabalho infanto-juvenil, a fim de apontar a realidade em que estes pequenos trabalhadores estavam envolvidos. A referente investigação ressalta a importância do trabalho infantil na construção da história social e da educação, procurando demonstrar os motivos pelos quais crianças faziam parte da população economicamente ativa da época, bem como as consequências que esse tipo de trabalho traz à infância e seus reflexos no sistema educacional e social paranaense.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.