A Parameter Estimation and Identifiability Analysis Methodology Applied to a Street Canyon Air Pollution Model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.

Spatial modeling of data with excessive zeros applied to reindeer pellet-group counts

We analyze a real data set pertaining to reindeer fecal pellet-group counts obtained from a survey conducted in a forest area in northern Sweden. In the data set, over 70% of counts are zeros, and there is high spatial correlation. We use conditionally autoregressive random effects for modeling of spatial correlation in a Poisson generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), quasi-Poisson hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and hurdle models. The quasi-Poisson HGLM allows for both under- and overdispersion with excessive zeros, while the ZIP and hurdle models allow only for overdispersion. In analyzing the real data set, we see that the quasi-Poisson HGLMs can perform better than the other commonly used models, for example, ordinary Poisson HGLMs, spatial ZIP, and spatial hurdle models, and that the underdispersed Poisson HGLMs with spatial correlation fit the reindeer data best. We develop R codes for fitting these models using a unified algorithm for the HGLMs. Spatial count response with an extremely high proportion of zeros, and underdispersion can be successfully modeled using the quasi-Poisson HGLM with spatial random effects.

Determination of a Total Body Model of Efficiency Applied to a Rowing Movement in Humans

Efficiency represents the ratio of work done to energy expended. In human movement, it is desirable to maximise the work done or minimise the energy expenditure. Whilst research has examined the efficiency of human movement for the lower and upper body, there is a paucity of research which considers the efficiency of a total body movement. Rowing is a movement which encompasses all parts of the body to generate locomotion and is a useful modality to measure total body efficiency. It was the aim of this research to develop a total body model of efficiency and explore how skill level of participants and assumptions of the modelling process affected the efficiency estimates Three studies were used to develop and evaluate the efficiency model. Firstly, the efficiency of ten healthy males was established using rowing, cycling and arm cranking. The model included internal work from motion capture and efficiency estimates were comparable to published literature, indicating the suitability of the model to estimate efficiency. Secondly, the model was developed to include a multi-segmented trunk and twelve novice and twelve skilled participants were assessed for efficiency. Whilst the efficiency estimates were similar to published results, novice participants were assessed as more efficient. Issues such as the unique physiology of trained rowers and a lack of energy transfers in the model were considered contributing factors. Finally the model was redeveloped to account for energy transfers, where skilled participants had higher efficiency at large workloads. This work presents a novel model for estimating efficiency during a rowing motion. The specific inclusion of energy transfers expands previous knowledge of internal work and efficiency, demonstrating a need to include energy transfers in the assessment of efficiency of a total body action.

The Inverse Jacobian Control Method Applied to a Four Degree of Freedom Confined Space Robot

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Afrofuturism as Applied to Self-Perception: an Experimental Vignette Study

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

On independent component analysis applied to unmixing hyperspectral data

One of the most challenging task underlying many hyperspectral imagery applications is the spectral unmixing, which decomposes a mixed pixel into a collection of reectance spectra, called endmember signatures, and their corresponding fractional abundances. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) have recently been proposed as a tool to unmix hyperspectral data. The basic goal of ICA is to nd a linear transformation to recover independent sources (abundance fractions) given only sensor observations that are unknown linear mixtures of the unobserved independent sources. In hyperspectral imagery the sum of abundance fractions associated to each pixel is constant due to physical constraints in the data acquisition process. Thus, sources cannot be independent. This paper address hyperspectral data source dependence and its impact on ICA performance. The study consider simulated and real data. In simulated scenarios hyperspectral observations are described by a generative model that takes into account the degradation mechanisms normally found in hyperspectral applications. We conclude that ICA does not unmix correctly all sources. This conclusion is based on the a study of the mutual information. Nevertheless, some sources might be well separated mainly if the number of sources is large and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high.

The shallow water approximation applied to the aluminium electrolysis process

The industrial production of aluminium is an electrolysis process where two superposed horizontal liquid layers are subjected to a mainly vertical electric current supplied by carbon electrodes. The lower layer consists of molten aluminium and lies on the cathode. The upper layer is the electrolyte and is covered by the anode. The interface between the two layers is often perturbed, leading to oscillations, or waves, similar to the waves on the surface of seas or lakes. The presence of electric currents and the resulting magnetic field are responsible for electromagnetic (Lorentz) forces within the fluid, which can amplify these oscillations and have an adverse influence on the process. The electrolytic bath vertical to horizontal aspect ratio is such, that it is advantageous to use the shallow water equations to model the interface motion. These are the depth-averaging the Navier-Stokes equations so that nonlinear and dispersion terms may be taken into account. Although these terms are essential to the prediction of wave dynamics, they are neglected in most of the literature on interface instabilities in aluminium reduction cells where only the linear theory is usually considered. The unknown variables are the two horizontal components of the fluid velocity, the height of the interface and the electric potential. In this application, a finite volume resolution of the double-layer shallow water equations including the electromagnetic sources has been developed, for incorporation into a generic three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code that also deals with heat transfer within the cell.

Modern Portfolio Theory Applied to Electricity Resource Planning

To meet electricity demand, electric utilities develop growth strategies for generation, transmission, and distributions systems. For a long time those strategies have been developed by applying least-cost methodology, in which the cheapest stand-alone resources are simply added, instead of analyzing complete portfolios. As a consequence, least-cost methodology is biased in favor of fossil fuel-based technologies, completely ignoring the benefits of adding non-fossil fuel technologies to generation portfolios, especially renewable energies. For this reason, this thesis introduces modern portfolio theory (MPT) to gain a more profound insight into a generation portfolio’s performance using generation cost and risk metrics. We discuss all necessary assumptions and modifications to this finance technique for its application within power systems planning, and we present a real case of analysis. Finally, the results of this thesis are summarized, pointing out the main benefits and the scope of this new tool in the context of electricity generation planning.

Random path sampling applied to vector models of magnetism

The recently reported Monte Carlo Random Path Sampling method (RPS) is here improved and its application is expanded to the study of the 2D and 3D Ising and discrete Heisenberg models. The methodology was implemented to allow use in both CPU-based high-performance computing infrastructures (C/MPI) and GPU-based (CUDA) parallel computation, with significant computational performance gains. Convergence is discussed, both in terms of free energy and magnetization dependence on field/temperature. From the calculated magnetization-energy joint density of states, fast calculations of field and temperature dependent thermodynamic properties are performed, including the effects of anisotropy on coercivity, and the magnetocaloric effect. The emergence of first-order magneto-volume transitions in the compressible Ising model is interpreted using the Landau theory of phase transitions. Using metallic Gadolinium as a real-world example, the possibility of using RPS as a tool for computational magnetic materials design is discussed. Experimental magnetic and structural properties of a Gadolinium single crystal are compared to RPS-based calculations using microscopic parameters obtained from Density Functional Theory.

A Binary Classifier for Test Case Feasibility Applied to Automatically Generated Tests of Event-Driven Software

Modern software application testing, such as the testing of software driven by graphical user interfaces (GUIs) or leveraging event-driven architectures in general, requires paying careful attention to context. Model-based testing (MBT) approaches first acquire a model of an application, then use the model to construct test cases covering relevant contexts. A major shortcoming of state-of-the-art automated model-based testing is that many test cases proposed by the model are not actually executable. These \textit{infeasible} test cases threaten the integrity of the entire model-based suite, and any coverage of contexts the suite aims to provide. In this research, I develop and evaluate a novel approach for classifying the feasibility of test cases. I identify a set of pertinent features for the classifier, and develop novel methods for extracting these features from the outputs of MBT tools. I use a supervised logistic regression approach to obtain a model of test case feasibility from a randomly selected training suite of test cases. I evaluate this approach with a set of experiments. The outcomes of this investigation are as follows: I confirm that infeasibility is prevalent in MBT, even for test suites designed to cover a relatively small number of unique contexts. I confirm that the frequency of infeasibility varies widely across applications. I develop and train a binary classifier for feasibility with average overall error, false positive, and false negative rates under 5\%. I find that unique event IDs are key features of the feasibility classifier, while model-specific event types are not. I construct three types of features from the event IDs associated with test cases, and evaluate the relative effectiveness of each within the classifier. To support this study, I also develop a number of tools and infrastructure components for scalable execution of automated jobs, which use state-of-the-art container and continuous integration technologies to enable parallel test execution and the persistence of all experimental artifacts.

A rehabilitation intervention to promote physical recovery following intensive care: a detailed description of construct development, rationale and content together with proposed taxonomy to capture processes in a randomised controlled trial.

Background: increasing numbers of patients are surviving critical illness, but survival may be associated with a constellation of physical and psychological sequelae that can cause on going disability and reduced health-related quality of life. Limited evidence currently exists to guide the optimum structure, timing, and content of rehabilitation programmes. There is a need to both develop and evaluate interventions to support and expedite recovery during the post-ICU discharge period. This paper describes the construct development for a complex rehabilitation intervention intended to promote physical recovery following critical illness. The intervention is currently being evaluated in a randomised trial (ISRCTN09412438; funder Chief Scientists Office, Scotland). Methods: the intervention was developed using the Medical Research Council (MRC) framework for developing complex healthcare interventions. We ensured representation from a wide variety of stakeholders including content experts from multiple specialties, methodologists, and patient representation. The intervention construct was initially based on literature review, local observational and audit work, qualitative studies with ICU survivors, and brainstorming activities. Iterative refinement was aided by the publication of a National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline (No. 83), publicly available patient stories (Healthtalkonline), a stakeholder event in collaboration with the James Lind Alliance, and local piloting. Modelling and further work involved a feasibility trial and development of a novel generic rehabilitation assistant (GRA) role. Several rounds of external peer review during successive funding applications also contributed to development. Results: the final construct for the complex intervention involved a dedicated GRA trained to pre-defined competencies across multiple rehabilitation domains (physiotherapy, dietetics, occupational therapy, and speech/language therapy), with specific training in post-critical illness issues. The intervention was from ICU discharge to 3 months post-discharge, including inpatient and post-hospital discharge elements. Clear strategies to provide information to patients/families were included. A detailed taxonomy was developed to define and describe the processes undertaken, and capture them during the trial. The detailed process measure description, together with a range of patient, health service, and economic outcomes were successfully mapped on to the modified CONSORT recommendations for reporting non-pharmacologic trial interventions. Conclusions: the MRC complex intervention framework was an effective guide to developing a novel post-ICU rehabilitation intervention. Combining a clearly defined new healthcare role with a detailed taxonomy of process and activity enabled the intervention to be clearly described for the purpose of trial delivery and reporting. These data will be useful when interpreting the results of the randomised trial, will increase internal and external trial validity, and help others implement the intervention if the intervention proves clinically and cost effective.