Modelling Patient Duration of Stay to Facilitate Resource Management of Geriatric Hospitals

A fundamental aspect of health care management is the effective allocation of resources. This is of particular importance in geriatric hospitals where elderly patients tend to have more complex needs. Hospital managers would benefit immensely if they had advance knowledge of patient duration of stay in hospital. Managers could assess the costs of patient care and make allowances for these in their budget. In this paper, we tackle this important problem via a model which predicts the duration of stay distribution of patients in hospital. The approach uses phase-type distributions conditioned on a Bayesian belief network.

Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions to Identify Patient Characteristics for Duration of Stay in Hospital

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that describes duration until an event occurs in terms of a process consisting of a sequence of latent phases. This paper considers the use of Coxian phase-type distributions for modelling patient duration of stay for the elderly in hospital and investigates the potential for using the resulting distribution as a classifying variable to identify common characteristics between different groups of patients according to their (anticipated) length of stay in hospital. The identification of common characteristics for patient length of stay groups would offer hospital managers and clinicians possible insights into the overall management and bed allocation of the hospital wards.

Multi-pulse scheme for enhancing electron localization through vibrational wavepacket manipulation

A novel scheme for enhancing electron localization in intense-field dissociation is outlined. Through manipulation of a bound vibrational wavepacket in the exemplar deuterium molecular ion, simulations demonstrate that the application of multiple phase-locked, few-cycle IR pulses can provide a powerful scheme for directing the molecular dissociation pathway. By tuning the time delay and carrier–envelope–phase for a sequence of pulse interactions, the probability of the electron being localized to a chosen nucleus can be enhanced to above 80%.

Laser pulse compression and amplification via Raman backscattering in plasma

A simple theoretical model is proposed for the interaction between two counter-propagating laser pulses (a pump and a seed pulse) in unmagnetized plasma. Pulse compression and amplification are observed via numerical simulation. A one dimensional fluid model for stimulated Raman backscattering is proposed to investigate the pulse compression and pulse amplification mechanisms. To accomplish this, energy is transferred from the long pump pulse to a seed pulse, with a Langmuir plasma wave mediating the transfer. The study focuses on the intensity profile of the pump laser pulse. A Gaussian and a ring intensity profile are, separately, considered for the pump laser pulse.

Characterisation of virus transport and attenuation in epikarst using short pulse and prolonged injection multi-tracer testing

Attenuation processes controlling virus fate and transport in the vadose zone of karstified systems can strongly influence groundwater quality. This research compares the breakthrough of two bacteriophage tracers (H40/1 and T7), with contrasting properties, at subsurface monitoring points following application onto an overlying composite sequence of thin organic soil and weathered limestone (epikarst). Short pulse multi-tracer test results revealed that T7 (Source concentration, Co=1.8x106pfu/mL) and H40/1(Co=5.9x106pfu/mL) could reach sampling points 10m below ground less than 30 minutes after tracer application. Contrasting deposition rates, determined from simulated tracer responses, reflected the potential of the ground to differentially attenuate viruses. Prolonged application of both T7 (Co=2.3x104pfu/mL) and H40/1 (Co=1.3x105pfu/mL) over a five hour period during a subsequent test, in which ionic strength levels observed at monitoring points rose consistently, corresponded to a rapid rise in T7 levels, followed by a gradual decline before the end of tracer injection; this reflected reaction-limited deposition in the system. T7’s response contrasted with that of H40/1, whose concentration remained constant over a three hour period before declining dramatically prior to the end of tracer injection. Subsequent application of lower ionic strength tracer-free flush water generated a rapid rise in H40/1 levels and a more gradual release of T7. Results highlight the benefits of employing prolonged injection multi-tracer tests for identifying processes not apparent from conventional short pulse tests. Study findings demonstrate that despite rapid transport rates, the epikarst is capable of physicochemical filtration of viruses and their remobilization, depending on virus type and hydrochemical conditions.