Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an ``adaptive threshold,'' i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Smartconnect: a system for the design and deployment of wireless sensor networks

We have developed SmartConnect, a tool that addresses the growing need for the design and deployment of multihop wireless relay networks for connecting sensors to a control center. Given the locations of the sensors, the traffic that each sensor generates, the quality of service (QoS) requirements, and the potential locations at which relays can be placed, SmartConnect helps design and deploy a low-cost wireless multihop relay network. SmartConnect adopts a field interactive, iterative approach, with model based network design, field evaluation and relay augmentation performed iteratively until the desired QoS is met. The design process is based on approximate combinatorial optimization algorithms. In the paper, we provide the design choices made in SmartConnect and describe the experimental work that led to these choices. Finally, we provide results from some experimental deployments.

Automatic speech segmentation using probabilistic latent component modeling

Latent variable methods, such as PLCA (Probabilistic Latent Component Analysis) have been successfully used for analysis of non-negative signal representations. In this paper, we formulate PLCS (Probabilistic Latent Component Segmentation), which models each time frame of a spectrogram as a spectral distribution. Given the signal spectrogram, the segmentation boundaries are estimated using a maximum-likelihood approach. For an efficient solution, the algorithm imposes a hard constraint that each segment is modelled by a single latent component. The hard constraint facilitates the solution of ML boundary estimation using dynamic programming. The PLCS framework does not impose a parametric assumption unlike earlier ML segmentation techniques. PLCS can be naturally extended to model coarticulation between successive phones. Experiments on the TIMIT corpus show that the proposed technique is promising compared to most state of the art speech segmentation algorithms.

Mining large-scale response networks reveals `topmost activities' in Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

Mycobacterium tuberculosis owes its high pathogenic potential to its ability to evade host immune responses and thrive inside the macrophage. The outcome of infection is largely determined by the cellular response comprising a multitude of molecular events. The complexity and inter-relatedness in the processes makes it essential to adopt systems approaches to study them. In this work, we construct a comprehensive network of infection-related processes in a human macrophage comprising 1888 proteins and 14,016 interactions. We then compute response networks based on available gene expression profiles corresponding to states of health, disease and drug treatment. We use a novel formulation for mining response networks that has led to identifying highest activities in the cell. Highest activity paths provide mechanistic insights into pathogenesis and response to treatment. The approach used here serves as a generic framework for mining dynamic changes in genome-scale protein interaction networks.

Forming Networks of Strategic Agents with Desired Topologies

Many networks such as social networks and organizational networks in global companies consist of self-interested agents. The topology of these networks often plays a crucial role in important tasks such as information diffusion and information extraction. Consequently, growing a stable network having a certain topology is of interest. Motivated by this, we study the following important problem: given a certain desired network topology, under what conditions would best response (link addition/deletion) strategies played by self-interested agents lead to formation of a stable network having that topology. We study this interesting reverse engineering problem by proposing a natural model of recursive network formation and a utility model that captures many key features. Based on this model, we analyze relevant network topologies and derive a set of sufficient conditions under which these topologies emerge as pairwise stable networks, wherein no node wants to delete any of its links and no two nodes would want to create a link between them.

Scalable Preference Aggregation in Social Networks

In social choice theory, preference aggregation refers to computing an aggregate preference over a set of alternatives given individual preferences of all the agents. In real-world scenarios, it may not be feasible to gather preferences from all the agents. Moreover, determining the aggregate preference is computationally intensive. In this paper, we show that the aggregate preference of the agents in a social network can be computed efficiently and with sufficient accuracy using preferences elicited from a small subset of critical nodes in the network. Our methodology uses a model developed based on real-world data obtained using a survey on human subjects, and exploits network structure and homophily of relationships. Our approach guarantees good performance for aggregation rules that satisfy a property which we call expected weak insensitivity. We demonstrate empirically that many practically relevant aggregation rules satisfy this property. We also show that two natural objective functions in this context satisfy certain properties, which makes our methodology attractive for scalable preference aggregation over large scale social networks. We conclude that our approach is superior to random polling while aggregating preferences related to individualistic metrics, whereas random polling is acceptable in the case of social metrics.

Estimation of Probabilistic Bounds on Phase CPI and Relevance in WCET Analysis

Estimating program worst case execution time(WCET) accurately and efficiently is a challenging task. Several programs exhibit phase behavior wherein cycles per instruction (CPI) varies in phases during execution. Recent work has suggested the use of phases in such programs to estimate WCET with minimal instrumentation. However the suggested model uses a function of mean CPI that has no probabilistic guarantees. We propose to use Chebyshev's inequality that can be applied to any arbitrary distribution of CPI samples, to probabilistically bound CPI of a phase. Applying Chebyshev's inequality to phases that exhibit high CPI variation leads to pessimistic upper bounds. We propose a mechanism that refines such phases into sub-phases based on program counter(PC) signatures collected using profiling and also allows the user to control variance of CPI within a sub-phase. We describe a WCET analyzer built on these lines and evaluate it with standard WCET and embedded benchmark suites on two different architectures for three chosen probabilities, p={0.9, 0.95 and 0.99}. For p= 0.99, refinement based on PC signatures alone, reduces average pessimism of WCET estimate by 36%(77%) on Arch1 (Arch2). Compared to Chronos, an open source static WCET analyzer, the average improvement in estimates obtained by refinement is 5%(125%) on Arch1 (Arch2). On limiting variance of CPI within a sub-phase to {50%, 10%, 5% and 1%} of its original value, average accuracy of WCET estimate improves further to {9%, 11%, 12% and 13%} respectively, on Arch1. On Arch2, average accuracy of WCET improves to 159% when CPI variance is limited to 50% of its original value and improvement is marginal beyond that point.

Frustration induced oscillator death on networks

An array of identical maps with Ising symmetry, with both positive and negative couplings, is studied. We divide the maps into two groups, with positive intra-group couplings and negative inter-group couplings. This leads to antisynchronization between the two groups which have the same stability properties as the synchronized state. Introducing a certain degree of randomness in signs of these couplings destabilizes the anti-synchronized state. Further increasing the randomness in signs of these couplings leads to oscillator death. This is essentially a frustration induced phenomenon. We explain the observed results using the theory of random matrices with nonzero mean. We briefly discuss applications to coupled differential equations. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

Optimal incentive timing strategies for product marketing on social networks

We consider the problem of devising incentive strategies for viral marketing of a product. In particular, we assume that the seller can influence penetration of the product by offering two incentive programs: a) direct incentives to potential buyers (influence) and b) referral rewards for customers who influence potential buyers to make the purchase (exploit connections). The problem is to determine the optimal timing of these programs over a finite time horizon. In contrast to algorithmic perspective popular in the literature, we take a mean-field approach and formulate the problem as a continuous-time deterministic optimal control problem. We show that the optimal strategy for the seller has a simple structure and can take both forms, namely, influence-and-exploit and exploit-and-influence. We also show that in some cases it may optimal for the seller to deploy incentive programs mostly for low degree nodes. We support our theoretical results through numerical studies and provide practical insights by analyzing various scenarios.

Threats and trade-fffs in resource critical crowdsourcing tasks over networks

In recent times, crowdsourcing over social networks has emerged as an active tool for complex task execution. In this paper, we address the problem faced by a planner to incen-tivize agents in the network to execute a task and also help in recruiting other agents for this purpose. We study this mecha-nism design problem under two natural resource optimization settings: (1) cost critical tasks, where the planner’s goal is to minimize the total cost, and (2) time critical tasks, where the goal is to minimize the total time elapsed before the task is executed. We define a set of fairness properties that should beideally satisfied by a crowdsourcing mechanism. We prove that no mechanism can satisfy all these properties simultane-ously. We relax some of these properties and define their ap-proximate counterparts. Under appropriate approximate fair-ness criteria, we obtain a non-trivial family of payment mech-anisms. Moreover, we provide precise characterizations of cost critical and time critical mechanisms.

Packet flow analysis in IP networks using data-flow analysis

Static analysis (aka offline analysis) of a model of an IP network is useful for understanding, debugging, and verifying packet flow properties of the network. Data-flow analysis is a method that has typically been applied to static analysis of programs. We propose a new, data-flow based approach for static analysis of packet flows in networks. We also investigate an application of our analysis to the problem of inferring a high-level policy from the network, which has been addressed in the past only for a single router.

Probabilistic least squares approach to ordinal regression

This paper proposes a novel approach to solve the ordinal regression problem using Gaussian processes. The proposed approach, probabilistic least squares ordinal regression (PLSOR), obtains the probability distribution over ordinal labels using a particular likelihood function. It performs model selection (hyperparameter optimization) using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) technique. PLSOR has conceptual simplicity and ease of implementation of least squares approach. Unlike the existing Gaussian process ordinal regression (GPOR) approaches, PLSOR does not use any approximation techniques for inference. We compare the proposed approach with the state-of-the-art GPOR approaches on some synthetic and benchmark data sets. Experimental results show the competitiveness of the proposed approach.

Sustaining cooperation on networks: an analytical study based on evolutionary game theory

We analytically study the role played by the network topology in sustaining cooperation in a society of myopic agents in an evolutionary setting. In our model, each agent plays the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game with its neighbors, as specified by a network. Cooperation is the incumbent strategy, whereas defectors are the mutants. Starting with a population of cooperators, some agents are switched to defection. The agents then play the PD game with their neighbors and compute their fitness. After this, an evolutionary rule, or imitation dynamic is used to update the agent strategy. A defector switches back to cooperation if it has a cooperator neighbor with higher fitness. The network is said to sustain cooperation if almost all defectors switch to cooperation. Earlier work on the sustenance of cooperation has largely consisted of simulation studies, and we seek to complement this body of work by providing analytical insight for the same. We find that in order to sustain cooperation, a network should satisfy some properties such as small average diameter, densification, and irregularity. Real-world networks have been empirically shown to exhibit these properties, and are thus candidates for the sustenance of cooperation. We also analyze some specific graphs to determine whether or not they sustain cooperation. In particular, we find that scale-free graphs belonging to a certain family sustain cooperation, whereas Erdos-Renyi random graphs do not. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first analytical attempt to determine which networks sustain cooperation in a population of myopic agents in an evolutionary setting.

Joint Routing, Scheduling and Power Control in Multihop MIMO Networks with MAC and Broadcast Links

We consider the problem of joint routing, scheduling and power control in a multihop wireless network when the nodes have multiple antennas. We focus on exploiting the multiple degrees-of-freedom available at each transmitter and receiver due to multiple antennas. Specifically we use multiple antennas at each node to form multiple access and broadcast links in the network rather than just point to point links. We show that such a generic transmission model improves the system performance significantly. Since the complexity of the resulting optimization problem is very high, we also develop efficient suboptimal solutions for joint routing, scheduling and power control in this setup.

On the feasibility of network alignment for three-source three-destination Multiple Unicast networks with delays

A transform approach to network coding was in-troduced by Bavirisetti et al. (arXiv:1103.3882v3 [cs.IT]) as a tool to view wireline networks with delays as k-instantaneous networks (for some large k). When the local encoding kernels (LEKs) of the network are varied with every time block of length k >1, the network is said to use block time varying LEKs. In this work, we propose a Precoding Based Network Alignment (PBNA) scheme based on transform approach and block time varying LEKs for three-source three-destination multiple unicast network with delays (3-S3-D MUN-D). In a recent work, Menget al. (arXiv:1202.3405v1 [cs.IT]) reduced the infinite set of sufficient conditions for feasibility of PBNA in a three-source three-destination instantaneous multiple unicast network as given by Das et al. (arXiv:1008.0235v1 [cs.IT]) to a finite set and also showed that the conditions are necessary. We show that the conditions of Meng et al. are also necessary and sufficient conditions for feasibility of PBNA based on transform approach and block time varying LEKs for 3-S3-D MUN-D.