Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Ellerman Bombs - Evidence for Magnetic Reconnection in the Lower Solar Atmosphere

The presence of photospheric magnetic reconnection has long been thought to give rise to short and impulsive events, such as Ellerman bombs (EBs) and Type II spicules. In this article, we combine high-resolution, high-cadence observations from the Interferometric BIdimensional Spectrometer and Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere instruments at the Dunn Solar Telescope, National Solar Observatory, New Mexico, with co-aligned Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) data to observe small-scale events situated within an active region. These data are then compared with state-of-the-art numerical simulations of the lower atmosphere made using the MURaM code. It is found that brightenings, in both the observations and the simulations, of the wings of the Hα line profile, interpreted as EBs, are often spatially correlated with increases in the intensity of the Fe I λ6302.5 line core. Bipolar regions inferred from Hinode/SOT magnetic field data show evidence of flux cancellation associated, co-spatially, with these EBs, suggesting that magnetic reconnection could be a driver of these high-energy events. Through the analysis of similar events in the simulated lower atmosphere, we are able to infer that line profiles analogous to the observations occur co-spatially with regions of strong opposite-polarity magnetic flux. These observed events and their simulated counterparts are interpreted as evidence of photospheric magnetic reconnection at scales observable using current observational instrumentation.

The influence of the magnetic field on running penumbral waves in the solar chromosphere

We use images of high spatial and temporal resolution, obtained using both ground- and space-based instrumentation, to investigate the role magnetic field inclination angles play in the propagation characteristics of running penumbral waves in the solar chromosphere. Analysis of a near-circular sunspot, close to the center of the solar disk, reveals a smooth rise in oscillatory period as a function of distance from the umbral barycenter. However, in one directional quadrant, corresponding to the north direction, a pronounced kink in the period-distance diagram is found. Utilizing a combination of the inversion of magnetic Stokes vectors and force-free field extrapolations, we attribute this behavior to the cut-off frequency imposed by the magnetic field geometry in this location. A rapid, localized inclination of the magnetic field lines in the north direction results in a faster increase in the dominant periodicity due to an accelerated reduction in the cut-off frequency. For the first time, we reveal how the spatial distribution of dominant wave periods, obtained with one of the highest resolution solar instruments currently available, directly reflects the magnetic geometry of the underlying sunspot, thus opening up a wealth of possibilities in future magnetohydrodynamic seismology studies. In addition, the intrinsic relationships we find between the underlying magnetic field geometries connecting the photosphere to the chromosphere, and the characteristics of running penumbral waves observed in the upper chromosphere, directly supports the interpretation that running penumbral wave phenomena are the chromospheric signature of upwardly propagating magneto-acoustic waves generated in the photosphere.

Modelling lay-up automation and production rate interaction on the cost of large stiffened panel components

This paper presents an integrated design and costing method for large stiffened panels for the purpose of investigating the influence and interaction of lay-up technology and production rate on manufacturing cost. A series of wing cover panels (≈586kg, 19·9m2) have been sized with realistic requirements considering manual and automated lay-up routes. The integrated method has enabled the quantification of component unit cost sensitivity to changes in annual production rate and employed equipment maximum deposition rate. Moreover the results demonstrate the interconnected relationship between lay-up process and panel design, and unit cost. The optimum unit cost solution when using automated lay-up is a combination of the minimum deposition rate and minimum number of lay-up machines to meet the required production rate. However, the location of the optimum unit cost, at the boundaries between the number of lay-up machines required, can make unit cost very sensitive to small changes in component design, production rate, and equipment maximum deposition rate. - See more at: http://aerosociety.com/News/Publications/Aero-Journal/Online/1941/Modelling-layup-automation-and-production-rate-interaction-on-the-cost-of-large-stiffened-panel-components#sthash.0fLuu9iG.dpuf

Tracking magnetic bright point motions through the solar atmosphere

High-cadence, multiwavelength observations and simulations are employed for the analysis of solar photospheric magnetic bright points (MBPs) in the quiet Sun. The observations were obtained with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) imager and the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer at the Dunn Solar Telescope. Our analysis reveals that photospheric MBPs have an average transverse velocity of approximately 1 km s-1, whereas their chromospheric counterparts have a slightly higher average velocity of 1.4 km s-1. Additionally, chromospheric MBPs were found to be around 63 per cent larger than the equivalent photospheric MBPs. These velocity values were compared with the output of numerical simulations generated using the muram code. The simulated results were similar, but slightly elevated, when compared to the observed data. An average velocity of 1.3 km s-1 was found in the simulated G-band images and an average of 1.8 km s-1 seen in the velocity domain at a height of 500 km above the continuum formation layer. Delays in the change of velocities were also analysed. Average delays of ˜4 s between layers of the simulated data set were established and values of ˜29 s observed between G-band and Ca ii K ROSA observations. The delays in the simulations are likely to be the result of oblique granular shock waves, whereas those found in the observations are possibly the result of a semi-rigid flux tube.

Alfvén Waves in the Solar Atmosphere: From Theory to Observations

Alfvén waves are considered to be viable transporters of the non-thermal energy required to heat the Sun's quiescent atmosphere. An abundance of recent observations, from state-of-the-art facilities, have reported the existence of Alfvén waves in a range of chromospheric and coronal structures. Here, we review the progress made in disentangling the characteristics of transverse kink and torsional linear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. We outline the simple, yet powerful theory describing their basic properties in (non-)uniform magnetic structures, which closely resemble the building blocks of the real solar atmosphere.

Synergy Between an Improved Covariate Unit Root Test and Cross-sectionally Dependent Panel Data Unit Root Tests, with two Applications

This paper proposes the use of an improved covariate unit root test which exploits the cross-sectional dependence information when the panel data null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected. More explicitly, to increase the power of the test, we suggest the utilization of more than one covariate and offer several ways to select the ‘best’ covariates from the set of potential covariates represented by the individuals in the panel. Employing our methods, we investigate the Prebish-Singer hypothesis for nine commodity prices. Our results show that this hypothesis holds for all but the price of petroleum.

Anatomy and Neurophysiology of Coughing: CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report

Bronchopulmonary C-fibers and a subset of mechanically sensitive, acid-sensitive myelinated sensory nerves play essential roles in regulating cough. These vagal sensory nerves terminate primarily in the larynx, trachea, carina and large intrapulmonary bronchi. Other bronchopulmonary sensory nerves, sensory nerves innervating other viscera as well as somatosensory nerves innervating the chest wall, diaphragm and abdominal musculature regulate cough patterning and cough sensitivity. The responsiveness and morphology of the airway vagal sensory nerve subtypes and the extrapulmonary sensory nerves that regulate coughing are described. The brainstem and higher brain control systems that process this sensory information are complex, but our current understanding of them is considerable and increasing. The relevance of these neural systems to clinical phenomena, such as urge to cough and psychological methods for treatment of dystussia, is high and modern imaging methods have revealed potential neural substrates for some features of cough in the human.

Overview of the Management of Cough: CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report

This overview will demonstrate that cough is a common and potentially expensive health-care problem. Improvement in the quality of care of those with cough has been the focus of study for a variety of disciplines in medicine. The purpose of the Cough Guideline and Expert Panel is to synthesize current knowledge in a form that will aid clinical decision-making for the diagnosis and management of cough across disciplines and also identify gaps in knowledge and treatment options.

Investigation of Aircraft Panel Deformations during Riveting Process

In collaboration with Airbus-UK, the dimensional growth of small panels while being riveted with stiffeners is investigated. The stiffeners have been fastened to the panels with rivets and it has been observed that during this operation the panels expand in the longitudinal and transverse directions. It has been observed that the growth is variable and the challenge is to control the riveting process to minimize this variability. In this investigation, the assembly of the small panels and longitudinal stiffeners has been simulated using low and high fidelity nonlinear finite element models. The models have been validated against a limited set of experimental measurements; it was found that more accurate predictions of the riveting process are achieved using high fidelity explicit finite element models. Furthermore, through a series of numerical simulations and probabilistic analyses, the manufacturing process control parameters that influence panel growth have been identified. Alternative fastening approaches were examined and it was found that dimensional growth can be controlled by changing the design of the dies used for forming the rivets.

Impact of composite ply continuity constraints on aerospace stiffened panel design

Considering the development of aerospace composite components, designing for reduced manufacturing layup cost and structural complexity is increasingly important. While the advantage of composite materials is the ability to tailor designs to various structural loads for minimum mass, the challenge is obtaining a design that is manufacturable and minimizes local ply incompatibility. The focus of the presented research is understanding how the relationships between mass, manufacturability and design complexity, under realistic loads and design requirements, can be affected by enforcing ply continuity in the design process. Presented are a series of sizing case studies on an upper wing cover, designed using conventional analyses and the tabular laminate design process. Introducing skin ply continuity constraints can generate skin designs with minimal ply discontinuities, fewer ply drops and larger ply areas than designs not constrained for continuity. However, the reduced design freedom associated with the addition of these constraints results in a weight penalty over the total wing cover. Perhaps more interestingly, when considering manual hand layup the reduced design complexity is not translated into a reduced recurring manufacturing cost. In contrast, heavier wing cover designs appear to take more time to layup regardless of the laminate design complexity. © 2012 AIAA.

Nanoflare Activity In the Solar Chromosphere

We use ground-based images of high spatial and temporal resolution to search for evidence of nanoflare activity in the solar chromosphere. Through close examination of more than 1 x 10(9) pixels in the immediate vicinity of an active region, we show that the distributions of observed intensity fluctuations have subtle asymmetries. A negative excess in the intensity fluctuations indicates that more pixels have fainter-than-average intensities compared with those that appear brighter than average. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we reveal how the negative excess can be explained by a series of impulsive events, coupled with exponential decays, that are fractionally below the current resolving limits of low-noise equipment on high-resolution ground-based observatories. Importantly, our Monte Carlo simulations provide clear evidence that the intensity asymmetries cannot be explained by photon-counting statistics alone. A comparison to the coronal work of Terzo et al. suggests that nanoflare activity in the chromosphere is more readily occurring, with an impulsive event occurring every similar to 360 s in a 10,000 km(2) area of the chromosphere, some 50 times more events than a comparably sized region of the corona. As a result, nanoflare activity in the chromosphere is likely to play an important role in providing heat energy to this layer of the solar atmosphere.

The radiated energy budget of Chromospheric Plasma in a major solar flare deduced from multi-wavelength observations

This paper presents measurements of the energy radiated by the lower solar atmosphere, at optical, UV, and EUV wavelengths, during an X-class solar flare (SOL2011-02-15T01:56) in response to an injection of energy assumed to be in the form of nonthermal electrons. Hard X-ray observations from RHESSI were used to track the evolution of the parameters of the nonthermal electron distribution to reveal the total power contained in flare accelerated electrons. By integrating over the duration of the impulsive phase, the total energy contained in the nonthermal electrons was found to be >2 × 1031 erg. The response of the lower solar atmosphere was measured in the free–bound EUV continua of H i (Lyman), He i, and He ii, plus the emission lines of He ii at 304 Å and H i (Lyα) at 1216 Å by SDO/EVE, the UV continua at 1600 Å and 1700 Å by SDO/AIA, and the white light continuum at 4504 Å, 5550 Å, and 6684 Å, along with the Ca ii H line at 3968 Å using Hinode/SOT. The summed energy detected by these instruments amounted to ~3 × 1030 erg; about 15% of the total nonthermal energy. The Lyα line was found to dominate the measured radiative losses. Parameters of both the driving electron distribution and the resulting chromospheric response are presented in detail to encourage the numerical modeling of flare heating for this event, to determine the depth of the solar atmosphere at which these line and continuum processes originate, and the mechanism(s) responsible for their generation.

Developing an international Pseudomonas aeruginosa reference panel

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major opportunistic pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and causes a wide range of infections among other susceptible populations. Its inherent resistance to many antimicrobials also makes it difficult to treat infections with this pathogen. Recent evidence has highlighted the diversity of this species, yet despite this, the majority of studies on virulence and pathogenesis focus on a small number of strains. There is a pressing need for a P. aeruginosa reference panel to harmonize and coordinate the collective efforts of the P. aeruginosa research community. We have collated a panel of 43 P. aeruginosa strains that reflects the organism's diversity. In addition to the commonly studied clones, this panel includes transmissible strains, sequential CF isolates, strains with specific virulence characteristics, and strains that represent serotype, genotype or geographic diversity. This focussed panel of P. aeruginosa isolates will help accelerate and consolidate the discovery of virulence determinants, improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of infections caused by this pathogen, and provide the community with a valuable resource for the testing of novel therapeutic agents.