Contributions of Weather and Predation to Reduced Breeding Success in a Threatened Northern Loggerhead Shrike Population

Populations on the periphery of a species' range may experience more severe environmental conditions relative to populations closer to the core of the range. As a consequence, peripheral populations may have lower reproductive success or survival, which may affect their persistence. In this study, we examined the influence of environmental conditions on breeding biology and nest survival in a threatened population of Loggerhead Shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus) at the northern limit of the range in southeastern Alberta, Canada, and compared our estimates with those from shrike populations elsewhere in the range. Over the 2-year study in 1992–1993, clutch sizes averaged 6.4 eggs, and most nests were initiated between mid-May and mid-June. Rate of renesting following initial nest failure was 19%, and there were no known cases of double-brooding. Compared with southern populations, rate of renesting was lower and clutch sizes tended to be larger, whereas the length of the nestling and hatchling periods appeared to be similar. Most nest failures were directly associated with nest predators, but weather had a greater direct effect in 1993. Nest survival models indicated higher daily nest survival during warmer temperatures and lower precipitation, which may include direct effects of weather on nestlings as well as indirect effects on predator behavior or food abundance. Daily nest survival varied over the nesting cycle in a curvilinear pattern, with a slight increase through laying, approximately constant survival through incubation, and a decline through the nestling period. Partial brood loss during the nestling stage was high, particularly in 1993, when conditions were cool and wet. Overall, the lower likelihood of renesting, lower nest survival, and higher partial brood loss appeared to depress reproductive output in this population relative to those elsewhere in the range, and may have increased susceptibility to population declines.

Evaluating the Potential Impact of a Gas Pipeline on Whimbrel Breeding Habitat in the Outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories

We used ground surveys to identify breeding habitat for Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) in the outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, and to test the value of high-resolution IKONOS imagery for mapping additional breeding habitat in the Delta. During ground surveys, we found Whimbrel nests (n = 28) in extensive areas of wet-sedge low-centered polygon (LCP) habitat on two islands in the Delta (Taglu and Fish islands) in 2006 and 2007. Supervised classification using spectral analysis of IKONOS imagery successfully identified additional areas of wet-sedge habitat in the region. However, ground surveys to test this classification found that many areas of wet-sedge habitat had dense shrubs, no standing water, and/or lacked polygon structure and did not support breeding Whimbrel. Visual examination of the IKONOS imagery was necessary to determine which areas exhibited LCP structure. Much lower densities of nesting Whimbrel were also found in upland habitats near wetlands. We used habitat maps developed from a combination of methods, to perform scenario analyses to estimate the potential effects of the Mackenzie Gas Project on Whimbrel habitat. Assuming effective complete habitat loss within 20 m, 50 m, or 250 m of any infrastructure or pipeline, the currently proposed pipeline development would result in loss of 8%, 12%, or 30% of existing Whimbrel habitat. If subsidence were to occur, most Whimbrel habitat could become unsuitable. If the facility is developed, follow-up surveys will be required to test these models.

Do the Golden-winged Warbler and Blue-winged Warbler Exhibit Species-specific Differences in their Breeding Habitat Use?

We compared habitat features of Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) territories in the presence and absence of the Blue-winged Warbler (V. cyanoptera) on reclaimed coal mines in southeastern Kentucky, USA. Our objective was to determine whether there are species specific differences in habitat that can be manipulated to encourage population persistence of the Golden-winged Warbler. When compared with Blue-winged Warblers, Golden-winged Warblers established territories at higher elevations and with greater percentages of grass and canopy cover. Mean territory size (minimum convex polygon) was 1.3 ha (se = 0.1) for Golden-winged Warbler in absence of Blue-winged Warbler, 1.7 ha (se = 0.3) for Golden-winged Warbler coexisting with Blue-winged Warbler, and 2.1 ha (se = 0.3) for Blue-winged Warbler. Territory overlap occurred within and between species (18 of n = 73 territories, 24.7%). All Golden-winged and Blue-winged Warblers established territories that included an edge between reclaimed mine land and mature forest, as opposed to establishing territories in open grassland/shrubland habitat. The mean distance territories extended from a forest edge was 28.0 m (se = 3.8) for Golden-winged Warbler in absence of Blue-winged Warbler, 44.7 m (se = 5.7) for Golden-winged Warbler coexisting with Blue-winged Warbler, and 33.1 m (se = 6.1) for Blue-winged Warbler. Neither territory size nor distances to forest edges differed significantly between Golden-winged Warbler in presence or absence of Blue-winged Warbler. According to Monte Carlo analyses, orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata), green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica) seedlings and saplings, and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) saplings were indicative of sites with only Golden-winged Warblers. Sericea lespedeza, goldenrod (Solidago spp.), clematis vine (Clematis spp.), and blackberry (Rubus spp.) were indicative of sites where both species occurred. Our findings complement recent genetic studies and add another factor for examining Golden-winged Warbler population decline. Further, information from our study will aid land managers in manipulating habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler.

Breeding Biology of Grassland Birds in Western New York: Conservation and Management Implications

Declining grassland breeding bird populations have led to increased efforts to assess habitat quality, typically by estimating density or relative abundance. Because some grassland habitats may function as ecological traps, a more appropriate metric for determining quality may be breeding success. Between 1994 and 2003 we gathered data on the nest fates of Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna), Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorous), and Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) in a series of fallow fields and pastures/hayfields in western New York State. We calculated daily survival probabilities using the Mayfield method, and used the logistic-exposure method to model effects of predictor variables on nest success. Nest survival probabilities were 0.464 for Eastern Meadowlarks (n = 26), 0.483 for Bobolinks (n = 91), and 0.585 for Savannah Sparrows (n = 152). Fledge dates for first clutches ranged between 14 June and 23 July. Only one obligate grassland bird nest was parasitized by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater), for an overall brood parasitism rate of 0.004. Logistic-exposure models indicated that daily nest survival probabilities were higher in pastures/hayfields than in fallow fields. Our results, and those from other studies in the Northeast, suggest that properly managed cool season grassland habitats in the region may not act as ecological traps, and that obligate grassland birds in the region may have greater nest survival probabilities, and lower rates of Brown-headed Cowbird parasitism, than in many parts of the Midwest.

Identification of Putative Wintering Areas and Ecological Determinants of Population Dynamics of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) Breeding in Northern Italy

To identify the causes of population decline in migratory birds, researchers must determine the relative influence of environmental changes on population dynamics while the birds are on breeding grounds, wintering grounds, and en route between the two. This is problematic when the wintering areas of specific populations are unknown. Here, we first identified the putative wintering areas of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) populations breeding in northern Italy as those areas, within the wintering ranges of these species, where the winter Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which may affect winter survival, best predicted annual variation in population indices observed in the breeding grounds in 1992–2009. In these analyses, we controlled for the potentially confounding effects of rainfall in the breeding grounds during the previous year, which may affect reproductive success; the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), which may account for climatic conditions faced by birds during migration; and the linear and squared term of year, which account for nonlinear population trends. The areas thus identified ranged from Guinea to Nigeria for the Common House-Martin, and were located in southern Ghana for the Common Swift. We then regressed annual population indices on mean NDVI values in the putative wintering areas and on the other variables, and used Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) of variance to assess their relative contribution to population dynamics. We re-ran all the analyses using NDVI values at different spatial scales, and consistently found that our population of Common House-Martin was primarily affected by spring rainfall (43%–47.7% explained variance) and NDVI (24%–26.9%), while the Common Swift population was primarily affected by the NDVI (22.7%–34.8%). Although these results must be further validated, currently they are the only hypotheses about the wintering grounds of the Italian populations of these species, as no Common House-Martin and Common Swift ringed in Italy have been recovered in their wintering ranges.

Costs of Reproduction in Breeding Female Mallards: Predation Risk during Incubation Drives Annual Mortality

The effort expended on reproduction may entail future costs, such as reduced survival or fecundity, and these costs can have an important influence on life-history optimization. For birds with precocial offspring, hypothesized costs of reproduction have typically emphasized nutritional and energetic investments in egg formation and incubation. We measured seasonal survival of 3856 radio-marked female Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from arrival on the breeding grounds through brood-rearing or cessation of breeding. There was a 2.5-fold direct increase in mortality risk associated with incubating nests in terrestrial habitats, whereas during brood-rearing when breeding females occupy aquatic habitats, mortality risk reached seasonal lows. Mortality risk also varied with calendar date and was highest during periods when large numbers of Mallards were nesting, suggesting that prey-switching behaviors by common predators may exacerbate risks to adults in all breeding stages. Although prior investments in egg laying and incubation affected mortality risk, most relationships were not consistent with the cost of reproduction hypothesis; birds with extensive prior investments in egg production or incubation typically survived better, suggesting that variation in individual quality drove both relationships. We conclude that for breeding female Mallards, the primary cost of reproduction is a fixed cost associated with placing oneself at risk to predators while incubating nests in terrestrial habitats.

Numerical Response of Breeding Birds Following Experimental Selection Harvesting in Northern Hardwood Forests

Silvicultural treatments have been shown to alter the composition of species assemblages in numerous taxa. However, the intensity and persistence of these effects have rarely been documented. We used a before-after, control-impact (BACI) paired design, i.e., five pairs of 25-ha study plots, 1-control and 1-treated plot, to quantify changes in the density of eight forest bird species in response to selection harvesting over six breeding seasons, one year pre- and five years postharvest. Focal species included mature forest associates, i.e., Northern Parula (Setophaga americana) and Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens), forest generalists, i.e., Yellow-bellied Sapsucker (Sphyrapicus varius) and Swainson’s Thrush (Catharus ustulatus), early-seral specialists, i.e., Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) and Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica), species associated with shrubby forest gaps, i.e., Black-throated Blue Warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), and mid-seral species, i.e., American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). As predicted, we found a negative numerical response to the treatment in the Black-throated Green Warbler, no treatment effect in the Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, and a positive treatment effect in early-seral specialists. We only detected a year effect in the Northern Parula and the American Redstart. There was evidence for a positive treatment effect on the Swainson’s Thrush when the regeneration started to reach the pole stage, i.e., fifth year postharvest. These findings suggest that selection harvesting has the potential to maintain diverse avian assemblages while allowing sustainable management of timber supply, but future studies should determine whether mature-forest associates can sustain second- and third-entry selection harvest treatments.

Mortality of Migratory Birds from Marine Commercial Fisheries and Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Canada

There is an imminent need for conservation and best-practice management efforts in marine ecosystems where global-scale declines in the biodiversity and biomass of large vertebrate predators are increasing and marine communities are being altered. We examine two marine-based industries that incidentally take migratory birds in Canada: (1) commercial fisheries, through bycatch, and (2) offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production. We summarize information from the scientific literature and technical reports and also present new information from recently analyzed data to assess the magnitude and scope of mortality. Fisheries bycatch was responsible for the highest levels of incidental take of migratory bird species; estimated combined take in the longline, gillnet, and bottom otter trawl fisheries within the Atlantic, including the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Pacific regions was 2679 to 45,586 birds per year. For the offshore oil and gas sector, mortality estimates ranged from 188 to 4494 deaths per year due to the discharge of produced waters resulting in oil sheens and collisions with platforms and vessels; however these estimates for the oil and gas sector are based on many untested assumptions. In spite of the uncertainties, we feel levels of mortality from these two industries are unlikely to affect the marine bird community in Canada, but some effects on local populations from bycatch are likely. Further research and monitoring will be required to: (1) better estimate fisheries-related mortality for vulnerable species and populations that may be impacted by local fisheries, (2) determine the effects of oil sheens from produced waters, and attraction to platforms and associated mortality from collisions, sheens, and flaring, so that better estimates of mortality from the offshore oil and gas sector can be obtained, and (3) determine impacts associated with accidental spills, which are not included in our current assessment. With a better understanding of the direct mortality of marine birds from industry, appropriate mitigation and management actions can be implemented. Cooperation from industry for data collection, research to fill knowledge gaps, and implementation of mitigation approaches will all be needed to conserve marine birds in Canada.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.