How is the balance of a forecast ensemble affected by adaptive and non-adaptive localization schemes?

This paper investigates the effect on balance of a number of Schur product-type localization schemes which have been designed with the primary function of reducing spurious far-field correlations in forecast error statistics. The localization schemes studied comprise a non-adaptive scheme (where the moderation matrix is decomposed in a spectral basis), and two adaptive schemes, namely a simplified version of SENCORP (Smoothed ENsemble COrrelations Raised to a Power) and ECO-RAP (Ensemble COrrelations Raised to A Power). The paper shows, we believe for the first time, how the degree of balance (geostrophic and hydrostatic) implied by the error covariance matrices localized by these schemes can be diagnosed. Here it is considered that an effective localization scheme is one that reduces spurious correlations adequately but also minimizes disruption of balance (where the 'correct' degree of balance or imbalance is assumed to be possessed by the unlocalized ensemble). By varying free parameters that describe each scheme (e.g. the degree of truncation in the schemes that use the spectral basis, the 'order' of each scheme, and the degree of ensemble smoothing), it is found that a particular configuration of the ECO-RAP scheme is best suited to the convective-scale system studied. According to our diagnostics this ECO-RAP configuration still weakens geostrophic and hydrostatic balance, but overall this is less so than for other schemes.

Dual mycorrhizal associations of jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) in a nurse-pot system

Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata Donn ex Sm.) plants, like many other eucalypts, can form symbiotic associations with both arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. To study this tripartite relationship we developed a novel nurse-pot system to allow us to investigate the extent and temporal colonisation dynamics of jarrah by two AM species (Rhizophagus irregularis (Błaszk., Wubet, Renker & Buscot) C. Walker & A. Schüßler comb. nov. and Scutellospora calospora Nicol. & Gerd.) and two putative ECM species (Austroboletus occidentalis Watling & N.M. Greg. and Scleroderma sp.) and their potential effects on jarrah growth and nutrition. Our nurse-pot system, using jarrah as both the nurse plant and test plant, was developed to establish extraradical hyphal networks of both AM and ECM fungi that act as single or dual inoculum for test plants. Mycorrhizal colonisation was described and quantified, and growth and nutritional effects measured and analysed. Mycorrhizal colonisation increased with time for the test seedlings exposed to hyphae networks from S. calospora and Scleroderma sp. The nurse-pot system was effective at initiating colonisation of functioning AM or (putative) ECM systems separately but the ECM symbiosis was inhibited where a dual AM + ECM inoculum (R. irregularis and Scleroderma sp.) was present. The presence of S. calospora, A. occidentalis and Scleroderma sp. individually significantly increased the shoot biomass of seedlings compared with non-mycorrhizal controls. The two AM isolates had different physiological effects on jarrah plants. S. calospora improved growth and micronutrient uptake of jarrah seedlings whereas no positive response was observed with R. irregularis. In addition, as an interesting observation, the non-responsive AM fungus R. irregularis suppressed the ECM symbiosis in dually inoculated plants where ECM structures, positive growth response and nutritional effects were absent. When inoculated individually, ECM isolates dominated the growth response and uptake of P and other nutrients in this dual symbiotic plant. Despite the positive growth response in the A. occidentalis treatment, ECM structures were not observed in either nurse or test seedlings. From the effects of A. occidentalis on jarrah we hypothesise that this fungus forms a functional mycorrhizal-type partnership even without forming archetypal structures in and on the root

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Non-genomic actions of estrogens and their interaction with genomic actions in the brain

Ligands for the nuclear receptor superfamily have at least two mechanisms of action: (a) classical transcriptional regulation of target genes (genomic mechanisms); and (b) non-genomic actions, which are initiated at the cell membrane, which could also impact transcription. Though transcriptional mechanisms are increasingly well understood, membrane-initiated actions of these ligands are incompletely understood. This has led to considerable debate over the physiological relevance of membrane-initiated actions of hormones versus genomic actions of hormones, with genomic actions predominating in the endocrine field. There is good evidence that the membrane-limited actions of hormones, particularly estrogens, involve the rapid activation of kinases and the release of calcium and that these are linked to physiologically relevant scenarios in the brain. We show evidence in this review, that membrane actions of estrogens, which activate these rapid signaling cascades, can also potentiate nuclear transcription in both the central nervous system and in non-neuronal cell lines. We present a theoretical scenario which can be used to understand this phenomenon. These signaling cascades may occur in parallel or in series but subsequently, converge at the modification of transcriptionally relevant molecules such as nuclear receptors and/or coactivators. In addition, other non-cognate hormones or neurotransmitters may also activate cascades to crosstalk with estrogen receptor-mediated transcription, though the relevance of this is less clear. The idea that coupling between membrane-initiated and genomic actions of hormones is a novel idea in neuroendocrinology and provides us with a unified view of hormone action in the central nervous system.

A Romano-British settlement with ovens and field system at Theobalds Road, Wivelsfield, East Sussex

Excavation west of Wivelsfield, East Sussex, revealed part of an early Romano-British settlement. One of the round-houses may have had a non-domestic, possibly ritual, function. The settlement appears to have been subsequently incorporated within a rectilinear arrangement of field/enclosure ditches. Along the edge of one of these ditches were built a series of features interpreted as ovens, of varying form and likely use, from which charred waste from cereal processing and charcoal from coppiced woodland were recovered.

Analyses of cataract surgery performed by the Unified Health System in Brazil, 2006-2007

Objective. Estimate cataract surgical rates (CSR) for Brazil and each federal unit in 2006 and 2007 based on the number of surgeries performed by the Unified Health System to help plan a comprehensive ophthalmology network in order to eliminate cataract blindness in compliance with the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 3 000 cataract surgeries per million inhabitants per year. Methods. This descriptive study calculates CSR by using the number of cataract surgeries carried out by the Brazilian Unified Health System for each federal unit and estimates the need for cataract surgery in Brazil for 2006-2007, with official population data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The number of cataract surgeries was compared with the WHO target. Results. To reach the WHO goal for eliminating age-related cataract blindness in Brazil, 560 312 cataract surgeries in 2006 and 568 006 surgeries in 2007 needed to be done. In 2006, 179 121 cataract surgeries were done by the Unified Health System, corresponding to a CSR of 959 per million population; in 2007, 223 317 were performed, with a CSR of 1 179. With the Brazilian Council of Ophthalmology estimation of 165 000 surgeries each year by the non-public services, the CSR for Brazil would be 1 842 for 2006 and 2 051 for 2007. The proportions needed to achieve the proposed target were 38.6% in 2006 and 31.6% in 2007. Conclusions. Human resources, technical expertise, and equipment are crucial to reach the WHO goal. Brazil has enough ophthalmologists but needs improved planning and infrastructure in order to eliminate the problem, aspects that require greater financial investment and stronger political commitment.

Wide-band tracheids (WBTs) of photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic stems in species of Cactaceae

ARRUDA, E. AND G. F. A. MELO-DE-PINNA (Departamento de Botanica, Instituto de Biociencias. Universidade de Sao Paulo, Rua do Matao, travessa 14, Cidade Universitaria, Butanta, Caixa Postal 11461, 05422-970. Sao Paulo, SP, Brasil). Wide-band tracheids (WBTs) of the photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic stems in species of Cactaceae. J. Torrey Bat. Soc. 137: 16-29. 2010.-The absence of WBTs and wood polymorphisms in some species of the Caryophyllales may be related to the particular area of plant analyzed. The present research has the objective of studying the photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic stems of different species and stages of differentiation to register wood polymorphisms and to understand the distribution and occurrence of WBTs. Wood polymorphism was observed in the non-photosynthetic stern of young and adult plants of Opuntioideae and Cactoideae and is also found in the photosynthetic stem of young plants of some species of Cactoideae. Cactoideae present WBT/fibrous dimorphic wood that can be related to cambial variation associated with growth habits and plant development. As expected, in the photosynthetic stem of the adult columnar cacti the wood is monomorphic fibrous in which WBTs were not found. This wood contains a great amount of fibers due to necessity of the mechanical support. In contrast, the globular species do not possess fibers in this area of the stem in either adult or young plants. Opuntia monacantha Haw. had non-fibrous wood in which WBTs were observed in the axial system and in the inner parts of the rays. Fiber clusters were present in the axial system. This wood represents a variation in the wood types described for Opuntioideae. Also, in O. monacantha, cells similar to the WBTs were observed in the pith, which can be interpreted as variation in the morphogenic processes during the ontogeny of the plant, probably a case of homeosis. Monomorphic fibrous wood without WBTs was found along the entire stem of Pereskia bahiensis Gurke. This feature has been observed in other pereskias, and in addition to the others, indicates its proximity to the ancestral cacti.

A novel regeneration system for a wild passion fruit species (Passiflora cincinnata Mast.) based on somatic embryogenesis from mature zygotic embryos

The objective of the present work was to induce somatic embryogenesis from zygotic embryos of Passiflora cincinnata Masters. Zygotic embryos formed calli on media with different concentrations of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and 4.5 mu M benzyladenine (BA) after 30 days of in vitro culture. A concentration of 18.1 mu M 2,4-D resulted in the largest number of somatic embryos. Embryogenic calli were yellowish and friable, forming whitish proembryogenic masses. Morphologically, embryogenic cells were small and had large nuclei and dense cytoplasm, whereas non-embryogenic cells were elongated, with small nuclei and less dense cytoplasm. Calli cultured under white light on basal Murashige and Skoog`s medium with activated charcoal produced embryos in all developmental stages. There were differences among the treatments, with some leading to the production of calli with embryos and some only to callus formation. Some abnormalities were associated with somatic embryos, including fused axes, fused cotyledons and polycotyledonary embryos. Production of secondary somatic embryos occurred in the first cycle of primary embryo development. Secondary embryos differentiated from the surface of the protodermal layer of primary embryos with intense cell proliferation, successive mitotic divisions in the initial phase of embryoid development, and a vascular system formed with no connection to the parental tissue. This secondary embryogenic system of P. cincinnata is characterized by intense proliferation and maintenance of embryogenic competence after successive subcultures. This reproducible protocol opens new prospects for massive propagation and is an alternative to the current organogenesis-based transformation protocol.

Ecological niche similarities of Peponapis bees and non-domesticated Cucurbita species

Peponapis bees are considered specialized pollinators of Cucurbita flowers, a genus that presents several species of economic value (squashes and pumpkins). Both genera originated in the Americas, and their diversity dispersion center is in Mexico. Ten species of Peponapis and ten species of Cucurbita (only non-domesticated species) were analyzed considering the similarity of their ecological niche characteristics with respect to climatic conditions of their occurrence areas (abiotic variables) and interactions between species (biotic variables). The similarity of climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation) was estimated through cluster analyses. The areas of potential occurrence of the most similar species were obtained through ecological niche modeling and summed with geographic information system tools. Three main clusters were obtained: one with species that shared potential occurrence areas mainly in deserts (P. pruinosa, P. timberlakei, C. digitata, C. palmata, C. foetidissima), another in moist forests (P. limitaris, P. atrata, C. lundelliana, C. o. martinezii) and a third mainly in dry forests (C. a. sororia, C. radicans, C. pedatifolia, P. azteca, P. smithi, P. crassidentata, P. utahensis). Some species with similar ecological niche presented potential shared areas that are also similar to their geographical distribution, like those occurring predominantly on deserts. However, some clustered species presented larger geographical areas, such as P. pruinosa and C. foetidissima suggesting other drivers than climatic conditions to shape their distributions. The domestication of Cucurbita and also the natural history of both genera were considered also as important factors. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Culture of Mouse Embryonic Stem Cell-Derived Adherent Neurospheres and Functional Neurons

Innumerous protocols, using the mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells as model for in vitro study of neurons functional properties and features, have been developed. Most of these protocols are short lasting, which, therefore, does not allow a careful analysis of the neurons maturation, aging, and death processes. We describe here a novel and efficient long-lasting protocol for in vitro ES cells differentiation into neuronal cells. It consists of obtaining embryoid bodies, followed by induction of neuronal differentiation with retinoic acid of nonadherent embryoid bodies (three-dimensional model), which further allows their adherence and formation of adherent neurospheres (AN, bi-dimensional model). The AN can be maintained for at least 12 weeks in culture under repetitive mechanical splitting, providing a constant microenvironment (in vitro niche) for the neuronal progenitor cells avoiding mechanical dissociation of AN. The expression of neuron-specific proteins, such as nestin, sox1, beta III-tubulin, microtubule-associated protein 2, neurofilament medium protein, Tau, neuronal nuclei marker, gamma-aminobutyric acid, and 5-hydroxytryptamine, were confirmed in these cells maintained during 3 months under several splitting. Additionally, expression pattern of microtubule-associated proteins, such as lissencephaly (Lis1) and nuclear distribution element-like (Ndel1), which were shown to be essential for differentiation and migration of neurons during embryogenesis, was also studied. As expected, both proteins were expressed in undifferentiated ES cells, AN, and nonrosette neurons, although presenting different spatial distribution in AN. In contrast to previous studies, using cultured neuronal cells derived from embryonic and adult tissues, only Ndel1 expression was observed in the centrosome region of early neuroblasts from AN. Mature neurons, obtained from ES cells in this work, display ionic channels and oscillations of membrane electrical potential typical of electrically excitable cells, which is a characteristic feature of the functional central nervous system (CNS) neurons. Taken together, our study demonstrated that AN are a long-term culture of neuronal cells that can be used to analyze the process of neuronal differentiation dynamics. Thus, the protocol described here provides a new experimental model for studying neurological diseases associated with neuronal differentiation during early development, as well as it represents a novel source of functional cells that can be used as tools for testing the effects of toxins and/or drugs on neuronal cells.

An evaluation of three upwinding approximations for numerical modeling the flow in tubular membrane of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids

In this paper, the laminar fluid flow of Newtonian and non-Newtonian of aqueous solutions in a tubular membrane is numerically studied. The mathematical formulation, with associated initial and boundary conditions for cylindrical coordinates, comprises the mass conservation, momentum conservation and mass transfer equations. These equations are discretized by using the finite-difference technique on a staggered grid system. Comparisons of the three upwinding schemes for discretization of the non-linear (convective) terms are presented. The effects of several physical parameters on the concentration profile are investigated. The numerical results compare favorably with experimental data and the analytical solutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

Clustering and diffusion in a symplectic map lattice with non-local coupling

We study a symplectic chain with a non-local form of coupling by means of a standard map lattice where the interaction strength decreases with the lattice distance as a power-law, in Such a way that one can pass continuously from a local (nearest-neighbor) to a global (mean-field) type of coupling. We investigate the formation of map clusters, or spatially coherent structures generated by the system dynamics. Such clusters are found to be related to stickiness of chaotic phase-space trajectories near periodic island remnants, and also to the behavior of the diffusion coefficient. An approximate two-dimensional map is derived to explain some of the features of this connection. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Final state hadronic interactions and non-resonant B(+/-)-> K(+/-)pi(+)pi(-) decays

We evaluate the non-resonant decay amplitude of the process B(+/-) -> K(+/-)pi(+)pi(-) using an approach based on final state hadronic interactions described in terms of meson exchanges. We conclude that this mechanism generates inhomogeneities in the Dalitz plot of the B decay. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Trotter-Kato product formula for a class of non-autonomous evolution equations

In this article dedicated to Professor V. Lakshmikantham on the occasion of the celebration of his 84th birthday, we announce new results concerning the existence and various properties of an evolution system UA+B(t, s)(0 <= s <= t <= T) generated by the sum -(A(t)+B(t)) of two linear, time-dependent and generally unbounded operators defined on time-dependent domains in a complex and separable Banach space B. In particular, writing G(B) for the algebra of all linear bounded operators on B, we can express UA+B(t, s)(0 <= s <= t <= T) as the strong limit in L(B) of a product of the holomorphic contraction semigroups generated by -A(t) and -B(t), thereby getting a product formula of the Trotter-Kato type under very general conditions which allow the domain D(A(t)+B(t)) to evolve with time provided there exists a fixed set D subset of boolean AND D-t epsilon[0,D-T](A(t)+B(t)) everywhere dense in B. We then mention several possible applications of our product formula to various classes of non-autonomous parabolic initial-boundary value problems, as well as to evolution problems of Schrodinger type related to the theory of time-dependent singular perturbations of self-adjoint operators in quantum mechanics. We defer all the proofs and all the details of the applications to a separate publication. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.