Estatística aplicada à química: dez dúvidas comuns

Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

Avaliação do perfil de dissolução de medicamentos utilizando-se espectroscopia eletrônica multivariada

In this work the evaluation of the dissolution profile of captopril-hydrochlorothiazide and zidovudine-lamivudine associations were carried out by multivariate spectroscopic method. The models were developed by partial least square regression from 20 synthetic mixtures using mean-centered spectral data. The external validation was accomplished with 5 synthetic mixtures shown mean prevision error of about 1%. Good agreement was observed in the analyses of commercial drugs (content uniformity and dissolution profile), considering the results obtained by the standard chromatographic method, with prevision error lower than 10%.

Optimization of wood flour acetylation by factorial design and partial least squares regression

Acetylation was performed to reduce the polarity of wood and increase its compatibility with polymer matrices for the production of composites. These reactions were performed first as a function of acetic acid and anhydride concentration in a mixture catalyzed by sulfuric acid. A concentration of 50%/50% (v/v) of acetic acid and anhydride was found to produced the highest conversion rate between the functional groups. After these reactions, the kinetics were investigated by varying times and temperatures using a 3² factorial design, and showed time was the most relevant parameter in determining the conversion of hydroxyl into carbonyl groups.

Least squares regression with errors in both variables: case studies

Analytical curves are normally obtained from discrete data by least squares regression. The least squares regression of data involving significant error in both x and y values should not be implemented by ordinary least squares (OLS). In this work, the use of orthogonal distance regression (ODR) is discussed as an alternative approach in order to take into account the error in the x variable. Four examples are presented to illustrate deviation between the results from both regression methods. The examples studied show that, in some situations, ODR coefficients must substitute for those of OLS, and, in other situations, the difference is not significant.

Experimento didático de quimiometria para calibração multivariada na determinação de paracetamol em comprimidos comerciais utilizando espectroscopia no infravermelho próximo: um tutorial, parte II

The aim of this manuscript was to show the basic concepts and practical application of Partial Least Squares (PLS) as a tutorial, using the Matlab computing environment for beginners, undergraduate and graduate students. As a practical example, the determination of the drug paracetamol in commercial tablets using Near-Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression was shown, an experiment that has been successfully carried out at the Chemical Institute of Campinas State University for chemistry undergraduate course students to introduce the basic concepts of multivariate calibration in a practical way.

Use of multivariate experimental designs for optimizing the reductive degradation of an azo dye in the presence of redox mediators

The optimization of the anaerobic degradation of the azo dye Remazol golden yellow RNL was performed according to multivariate experimental designs: a 2² full-factorial design and a central composite design (CCD). The CCD revealed that the best incubation conditions (90% color removal) for the degradation of the azo dye (50 mg L- 1) were achieved with 350 mg L- 1 of yeast extract and 45 mL of anaerobic supernatant (free cell extract) produced from the incubation of 650 mg L- 1 of anaerobic microorganisms and 250 mg L- 1 of glucose. A first-order kinetics model best fit the experimental data (k = 0.0837 h- 1, R² = 0.9263).

UV determination of epinephrine, uric acid, and acetaminophen in pharmaceutical formulations and some human body fluids using multivariate calibration

In this work, a spectrophotometric methodology was applied in order to determine epinephrine (EP), uric acid (UA), and acetaminophen (AC) in pharmaceutical formulations and spiked human serum, plasma, and urine by using a multivariate approach. Multivariate calibration methods such as partial least squares (PLS) methods and its derivates were used to obtain a model for simultaneous determination of EP, UA and AC with good figures of merit and mixture design was in the range of 1.8 - 35.3, 1.7 - 16.8, and 1.5 - 12.1 µg mL-1. The 2nd derivate PLS showed recoveries of 95.3 - 103.3, 93.3 - 104.0, and 94.0 - 105.5 µg mL-1 for EP, UA, and AC, respectively.

PREDICTING THE BOILING POINT OF PCDD/Fs BY THE QSPR METHOD BASED ON THE MOLECULAR DISTANCE-EDGE VECTOR INDEX

The quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) for the boiling point (Tb) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) was investigated. The molecular distance-edge vector (MDEV) index was used as the structural descriptor. The quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb was modeled by using multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), respectively. Leave-one-out cross validation and external validation were carried out to assess the prediction performance of the models developed. For the MLR method, the prediction root mean square relative error (RMSRE) of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.77 and 1.23, respectively. For the ANN method, the prediction RMSRE of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.65 and 1.16, respectively. A quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb of PCDD/Fs was demonstrated. Both MLR and ANN are practicable for modeling this relationship. The MLR model and ANN model developed can be used to predict the Tb of PCDD/Fs. Thus, the Tb of each PCDD/F was predicted by the developed models.

Determination of sulfur in diesel using ATR/FTIR and multivariate calibration

The aim of this present work was to provide a more fast, simple and less expensive to analyze sulfur content in diesel samples than by the standard methods currently used. Thus, samples of diesel fuel with sulfur concentrations varying from 400 and 2500 mgkg-1 were analyzed by two methodologies: X-ray fluorescence, according to ASTM D4294 and by Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR). The spectral data obtained from FTIR were used to build multivariate calibration models by partial least squares (PLS). Four models were built in three different ways: 1) a model using the full spectra (665 to 4000 cm-1), 2) two models using some specific spectrum regions and 3) a model with variable selected by classic method of variable selection stepwise. The model obtained by variable selection stepwise and the model built with region spectra between 665 and 856 cm-1 and 1145 and 2717 cm-1 showed better results in the determination of sulfur content.

Social capital and health : variations, associations and challenges

Although social capital and health have been extensively studied during the last decade, there are still open issues in current empirical research. These concern for instance the measurement of the concept in different contexts, as well as the association between different types of social capital and different dimensions of health. The present thesis addressed these questions. The general aim was to promote the understanding of social capital and health by investigating the oldest old and the two major language groups in Finland, Swedish- and Finnish-speakers. Another aim was to contribute to the discussion on methodological issues in social capital and health research. The present thesis investigated two empirical data sets, Umeå 85+ and Health 2000. The Umeå 85+ study was a cross-sectional study of 163 individuals aged 85, 90, and 95 or older, living in the municipality of Umeå, Sweden, in the year of 2000. The Health 2000 survey was a national study of 8,028 persons aged 30 or above carried out in Finland in 2000-2001. Different indicators of structural (e.g. social contacts) and cognitive (e.g. trust) social capital, as well as health indicators were used as variables in the analyses. The Umeå 85+ data set was analyzed with factor analysis, as well as univariate and multivariate analysis of variance. The Health 2000 data was analyzed with logistic regression techniques. The results showed that the Swedish-speakers in the Finnish data set Health 2000 had consistently higher prevalence of social capital compared to the Finnish-speakers even after controlling for central sociodemographic variables. The results further showed that even if the language group differences in health were small, the Swedishspeakers experienced in general better self-reported health compared with the Finnish-speakers. Common sociodemographic variables could not explain these observed differences in health. The results imply that social capital is often, but not always, associated with health. This was clearly seen in the Umeå 85+ data set where only one health indicator (depressive symptoms) was associated with structural social capital among the oldest old. The results based on the analysis of the Health 2000 survey demonstrated that the cognitive component of social capital was associated with self-rated health and psychological health rather than with participation in social activities and social contacts. In addition, social capital statistically reduced the health advantage especially for Swedish-speaking men, indicating that high prevalence of social capital may promote health. Finally, the present thesis also discussed the issue of methodological challenges faced with when analyzing social capital and health. It was suggested that certain components of social capital such as bonding and bridging social capital may be more relevant than structural and cognitive components when investigating social capital among the two language groups in Finland. The results concerning the oldest old indicated that the structural aspects of social capital probably reflect current living conditions, whereas cognitive social capital reflects attitudes and traits often acquired decades earlier. This is interpreted as an indication of the fact that structural and cognitive social capital are closely related yet empirically two distinctive concepts. Taken together, some components of social capital may be more relevant to study than others depending on which population group and age group is under study. The results also implied that the choice of cut-off point of dichotomization of selfrated health has an impact on the estimated effects of the explanatory variables. When the whole age interval, 35-64 years, was analyzed with logistic regression techniques the choice of cut-off point did not matter for the estimated effects of marital status and educational level. The results changed, however, when the age interval was divided into three shorter intervals. If self-rated health is explored using wide age intervals that do not account for age-dependent covariates there is a risk of drawing misleading conclusions. In conclusion, the results presented in the thesis suggest that the uneven distribution of social capital observed between the two language groups in Finland are of importance when trying to further understand health inequalities that exist between Swedish- and Finnish-speakers in Finland. Although social capital seemed to be relevant to the understanding of health among the oldest old, the meaning of social capital is probably different compared to a less vulnerable age group. This should be noticed in future empirical research. In the present thesis, it was shown that the relationship between social capital and health is complex and multidimensional. Different aspects of social capital seem to be important for different aspects of health. This reduces the possibility to generalize the results and to recommend general policy implementations in this area. An increased methodological awareness regarding social capital as well as health are called for in order to further understand the cfomplex association between them. However, based on the present data and findings social capital is associated with health. To understand individual health one must also consider social aspects of the individuals’ environment such as social capital.

Outcomes of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infections among mothers in the Finnish Family HPV Study

To understand the natural history of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV)-infections, more information is needed on their genotype-specific prevalence, acquisition, clearance, persistence and progression. This thesis is part of the prospective Finnish Family HPV study. 329 pregnant women (mean age 25.5 years) were recruited during the third trimester of pregnancy and were followed up for 6 years. The outcomes of cervical HPV infections were evaluated among all the mothers participating in the study. Generalized estimating equation (GEE)-models and Poisson regression were used to estimate the risk factors of type-specific acquisition, clearance, persistence and progression of Species 7 and 9 HPV-genotypes. Independent protective factors against incident infections were higher number of life-time sexual partners, initiation of oral contraceptive use after age 20 years and becoming pregnant during FU. Older age and negative oral HR-HPV DNA status at baseline were associated with increased clearance, whereas higher number of current sexual partners decreased the probability of clearance. Early onset of smoking, practicing oral sex and older age increased the risk of type-specific persistence, while key predictors of CIN/SIL were persistent HR-HPV, abnormal Pap smear and new sexual partners. HPV16, together with multiple-type infections were the most frequent incident genotypes, most likely to remain persistent and least likely to clear. Collectively, LR-HPV types showed shorter incidence and clearance times than HR-HPV types. In multivariate models, different predictors were associated with these main viral outcomes, and there is some tentative evidence to suggest that oral mucosa might play a role in controlling some of these outcomes.

Hypoxia-associated biomarkers in rectal cancer treated by preoperative radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy

Hypoksiaan liittyvät biologiset merkkiaineet leikkausta edeltävällä sädehoidolla tai kemosädehoidolla hoidetussa peräsuolisyövässä Peräsuolensyöpä on yleinen pahanlaatuinen kasvain. Leikkausta edeltävä sädehoito annetaan yleensä T3-T4-kasvaimille. Tutkimuksella pyrittiin selvittämään, voidaanko kasvaimen hapenpuutteeseen liittyvillä biologisilla merkkiaineilla arvioida peräsuolisyövän ennustetta leikkausta edeltävän sädehoidon tai kemosädehoidon jälkeen. Tällaisia merkkiaineita ovat hapenpuutteen vaikutuksesta aktivoituva HIF-1alfa hiilihappoanhydraasi IX (CA IX), sokerin kuljetukseen solussa osallistuva GLUT-1 sekä solun tukirankaproteiini ezrin. Tutkimukseen otettiin 178 potilasta, jotka olivat saaneet ennen leikkausta lyhyen (n=77) tai pitkän sädehoidon (n=10), pitkän sädehoidon ja solunsalpaajahoidon (n=37) tai ei mitään hoitoa (n=54). Lisäksi osalta leikkausta edeltävää sädehoitoa saaneelta potilaalta tutkittiin hoitoja edeltävät, diagnostiset näytteet (n=80). Tutkimuksessa käytettiin immunehistokemiallisia värjäysmenetelmiä. Kasvaimen regressiota (TRG) arvioitiin pitkän sädehoidon jälkeisistä näytteistä. Leikkausnäytteissä negatiivinen/heikko CA IX intensiteetti liittyi sekä pidempään tautispesifiseen (p=0.034) että tautivapaaseen elinaikaan (p=0.003) ja pitkän sädehoidon jälkeen HIF-1alfa-negatiivisuus pidempään tautispesifiseen (p=0.001) sekä negatiivinen/heikko GLUT-1 pidempään tautivapaaseen elinaikaan (p=0.066). Voimakas ezrin-ilmentymä diagnostisissa näytteissä liittyi lyhyempään tautivapaaseen ja tautispesifiseen (p=0.027 ja p=0.002) ennusteeseen. Monimuuttuja-analyysissä vahva CA IX intensiteetti leikkausnäytteissä ennusti itsenäisesti huonompaa tautivapaata ja tautispesifistä selviytymistä. Erinomainen TRG liittyi negatiiviseen/heikkoon CA IX- (p=0.057), ezrin- (p=0.012) ja GLUT-1 -ilmentymään (p=0.013) leikkausnäytteissä. Kun kaikki neljä merkkiainetta analysoitiin yhdessä monimuuttuja-analyysissä, CA IX intensiteetti leikkausnäytteissä ennusti itsenäisesti tautispesifistä elinaikaa. Voimakas CA IX-ilmentymä leikkausnäytteissä ja positiivinen HIF-1alfa- ja vahva GLUT-1-ilmentymä pitkän sädehoidon jälkeisissä leikkausnäytteissä sekä vahva ezrin-ilmentymä diagnostisissa näytteissä liittyivät epäsuotuisaan ennusteeseen. Monimuuttujaanalyysissä kohtalainen/voimakas CA IX intensiteetti leikkausnäytteissä ennusti itsenäisesti huonompaa tautivapaata ja tautispesifistä elinaikaa. CA IX on vahva biologinen merkkiaine peräsuolisyövässä.

Fractures in older people - incidence, predictors and consequences

In older populations, fractures are common and the consequences of fractures may be serious both for an individual and for society. However, information is scarce about the incidence, predictors and consequences of fractures in population-based unselected cohorts including both men and women and a long follow-up. The objective of this study was to analyse the incidence and predictors of fractures as well as functional decline and excess mortality due to fractures, among 482 men and 695 women aged 65 or older in the municipality of Lieto, Finland from 1991 until 2002. In analyses, Poisson’s, Cox proportional Hazards and Cumulative Logistic regression models were used for the control of several confounding variables. During the 12-year follow-up with a total of 10 040 person-years (PY), 307 (26%) persons sustained altogether 425 fractures of which 77% were sustained by women. The total incidence of fractures was 53.4 per 1000 PY (95% confidence intervals [95% CI]: 47.9 - 59.5) in women and 24.9 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 20.4 - 30.4) in men. The incidence rates of fractures at any sites and hip fractures were associated with increasing age. No significant changes in the ageadjusted incidence rates of fractures were found in either gender during the 12-year follow-up. The predictors of fractures varied by gender. In multivariate analyses, reduced handgrip strength and body mass index (BMI) lower than 30 in women and a large number of depressive symptoms in men were independent predictors of fractures. A compression fracture in one or more thoracic or upper lumbar vertebras on chest radiography at baseline was associated with subsequent fractures in both genders. Lower body fractures independently predicted both short- (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline in mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) performance during the 8-year follow-up. Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during longterm follow-up. In the 12-year follow-up, hip fractures in men (Hazard Ratio [HR] 8.1, 95% CI: 4.4-14.9) and in women (HR 3.0, 95% CI: 1.9-4.9), and fractures at the proximal humerus in men (HR 5.4, 95% CI: 1.6-17.7) were independently associated with excess mortality. In addition, leisure time inactivity in physical exercise predicted independently both functional decline and excess mortality. Fractures are common among older people posing serious individual consequences. Further studies about the effectiveness of preventing falls and fractures as well as improving care and rehabilitation after fractures are needed.