Deindustrialisation and structural change during the post-Communist transition

The aim of this paper is to model the evolution of employment structure in post-communist economies in the broader context of deindustrialisation. The paper builds on the model of structural change developed by Rowthorn and Wells (1987). We show that the starting point of high industry sector share in total employment and its direct fall when productivity of sectors changes in favour of services can be explained in terms of this framework. Moreover, the model can also describe the phenomenon of a further expansion of the agriculture, observed in countries classified as "less consistent" in the reforms implementation. Hence, we distinguish two development paths, the efficient one, called "horizontal", and the inefficient one called "vertical". We illustrate it with empirical data, using alternative measures of structural change and patterns of structural evolutions during transition. Finally, we discuss the link between the EBRD indicators of reforms and structural change. We show that the "quality" of reforms, not the initial GDP level determines a country's development path.

Who you are or whom you know? Consumption interdependences in social networks

This paper presents an analysis of whether a consumer's decision to switch from one mobile phone provider to another is driven by individual consumer characteristics or by actions of other consumers in her social network. Such consumption interdependences are estimated using a unique dataset, which contains transaction data based on anonymized call records from a large European mobile phone carrier to approximate a consumer's social network. Results show that network effects have an important impact on consumers' switching decisions: switching decisions are interdependent between consumers who interact with each other and this interdependence increases in the closeness between two consumers as measured by the calling data. In other words, if a subscriber switches carriers, she is also affecting the switching probabilities of other individuals in her social circle. The paper argues that such an approach is of high relevance to both switching of providers and to the adoption of new products. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Correlates of depression in bipolar disorder

We analyse time series from 100 patients with bipolar disorder for correlates of depression symptoms. As the sampling interval is non-uniform, we quantify the extent of missing and irregular data using new measures of compliance and continuity. We find that uniformity of response is negatively correlated with the standard deviation of sleep ratings (ρ = -0.26, p = 0.01). To investigate the correlation structure of the time series themselves, we apply the Edelson-Krolik method for correlation estimation. We examine the correlation between depression symptoms for a subset of patients and find that self-reported measures of sleep and appetite/weight show a lower average correlation than other symptoms. Using surrogate time series as a reference dataset, we find no evidence that depression is correlated between patients, though we note a possible loss of information from sparse sampling. © 2013 The Author(s).

The Wide-Field Plate Database: Development and Access via Internet

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): J.2.

A Bimodality Test in High Dimensions

We present a test for identifying clusters in high dimensional data based on the k-means algorithm when the null hypothesis is spherical normal. We show that projection techniques used for evaluating validity of clusters may be misleading for such data. In particular, we demonstrate that increasingly well-separated clusters are identified as the dimensionality increases, when no such clusters exist. Furthermore, in a case of true bimodality, increasing the dimensionality makes identifying the correct clusters more difficult. In addition to the original conservative test, we propose a practical test with the same asymptotic behavior that performs well for a moderate number of points and moderate dimensionality. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): I.5.3.

Sensitivity Analysis of Some Applied Probability Models

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: Primary 90C31. Secondary 62C12, 62P05, 93C41.

Biomass fast pyrolysis energy balance of a 1kg/h test rig

The present paper offers a methodological approach towards the estimation and definition of enthalpies constituting an energy balance around a fast pyrolysis experiment conducted in a laboratory scale fluid bed with a capacity of 1 kg/ h. Pure N2 was used as fluidization medium at atmospheric pressure and the operating temperature (∼500°C) was adjusted with electrical resistors. The biomass feedstock type that was used was beech wood. An effort was made to achieve a satisfying 92.5% retrieval of products (dry basis mass balance) with the differences mainly attributed to loss of some bio-oil constituents into the quenching medium, ISOPAR™. The chemical enthalpy recovery for bio-oil, char and permanent gases is calculated 64.6%, 14.5% and 7.1%, respectively. All the energy losses from the experimental unit into the environment, namely the pyrolyser, cooling unit etc. are discussed and compared to the heat of fast pyrolysis that was calculated at 1123.5 kJ per kg of beech wood. This only represents 2.4% of the biomass total enthalpy or 6.5% its HHV basis. For the estimation of some important thermo-physical properties such as heat capacity and density, it was found that using data based on the identified compounds from the GC/MS analysis is very close to the reference values despite the small fraction of the bio-oil components detected. The methodology and results can help as a starting point for the proper design of fast pyrolysis experiments, pilot and/or industrial scale plants.

Three essays on the interrelationships among financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm's rate of return

The increase in the number of financial restatements in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of market capitalization for restated companies. Prior literature did not differentiate between single and multiple restatements announcements. This research investigated the inter-relationships among multiple financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm’s rate of return in the form of three essays by differentiating between single and multiple restatement announcement companies. First essay examined the stock performance of companies announcing the financial restatement multiple times. The postulation is that prior research overestimates the abnormal return by not separating single restatement companies from multiple restatement companies. This study investigated how market penalizes the companies that announce restatement more than once. Differentiating the restatement announcement data based on number of restatement announcements, the results supported the non persistence hypothesis that the market has no memory and negative abnormal returns obtained after each of the restatement announcements are completely random. Second essay examined the multiple restatement announcements and its perceived resultant information asymmetry around the announcement day. This study examined the pattern of information asymmetry for these announcements in terms of whether the bid-ask spread widens around the announcement day. The empirical analysis supported the hypotheses that the spread does widen not only around the first restatement announcement day but around every subsequent announcement days as well. The third essay empirically examined the financial and corporate governance characteristics of single and multiple restatement announcements companies. The analysis showed that corporate governance variables influence the occurrence of multiple restatement announcements and can distinguish multiple restatements announcement companies from single restatement announcement companies.

Three Essays on the Interrelationships Among Financial Restatements, Corporate Governance, Market Microstructure and the Firm's Rate of Return

The increase in the number of financial restatements in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of market capitalization for restated companies. Prior literature does not differentiate between single and multiple restatements announcements. This research investigates the inter-relationships among multiple financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm's rate of return in the form of three essays by differentiating between single and multiple restatement announcement companies. First essay examines the stock performance of companies announcing the financial restatement multiple times. The postulation is that prior research overestimates the abnormal return by not separating single restatement companies from multiple restatement companies. This study investigates how market penalizes the companies that announce restatement more than once. Differentiating the restatement announcement data based on number of restatement announcements, the results support for non persistence hypothesis that the market has no memory and negative abnormal returns obtained after each of the restatement announcements are completely random. Second essay examines the multiple restatement announcements and its perceived resultant information asymmetry around the announcement day. This study examines the pattern of information asymmetry for these announcements in terms of whether the bid-ask spread widens around the announcement day. The empirical analysis supports the hypotheses that the spread does widen not only around the first restatement announcement day but around every subsequent announcement days as well. The third essay empirically examines the financial and corporate governance characteristics of single and multiple restatement announcements companies. The analysis shows that corporate governance variables influence the occurrence of multiple restatement announcements and can distinguish multiple restatements announcement companies from single restatement announcement companies.

Last Interglacial synthesis of high-latitude temperature: temperature anomalies and associated errors for 4 time slices

The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.

Investigando o uso do sentido háptico na visualização de dados multivariados em gráficos de dispersão bidimensionais

Data Visualization is widely used to facilitate the comprehension of information and find relationships between data. One of the most widely used techniques for multivariate data (4 or more variables) visualization is the 2D scatterplot. This technique associates each data item to a visual mark in the following way: two variables are mapped to Cartesian coordinates so that a visual mark can be placed on the Cartesian plane; the others variables are mapped gradually to visual properties of the mark, such as size, color, shape, among others. As the number of variables to be visualized increases, the amount of visual properties associated to the mark increases as well. As a result, the complexity of the final visualization is higher. However, increasing the complexity of the visualization does not necessarily implies a better visualization and, sometimes, it provides an inverse situation, producing a visually polluted and confusing visualization—this problem is called visual properties overload. This work aims to investigate whether it is possible to work around the overload of the visual channel and improve insight about multivariate data visualized through a modification in the 2D scatterplot technique. In this modification, we map the variables from data items to multisensoriy marks. These marks are composed not only by visual properties, but haptic properties, such as vibration, viscosity and elastic resistance, as well. We believed that this approach could ease the insight process, through the transposition of properties from the visual channel to the haptic channel. The hypothesis was verified through experiments, in which we have analyzed (a) the accuracy of the answers; (b) response time; and (c) the grade of personal satisfaction with the proposed approach. However, the hypothesis was not validated. The results suggest that there is an equivalence between the investigated visual and haptic properties in all analyzed aspects, though in strictly numeric terms the multisensory visualization achieved better results in response time and personal satisfaction.

O projeto arquitetônico e a antecipação do projeto de segurança contra incêndio: interferência mútua, interação necessária

The great demand for Federal Institutions of High Education (IFES) design, triggered by the favourable political moment, boosts the public works market and brings with it the stigma of seeking the lowest cost and meet the federal Law 8.666/93 (Bids). In this context, this research makes an analysis of compliance with Fire Safety’s normative requirements in IFES’s architectural designs, taking this point as an evaluation of quality of designs. For the study, were used, IFES’s designs, specifically from UFERSA – Universidade Federal Rural do Semiárido and UFRN – Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, selected by the relationship use x public served and yet, in the replication of these buildings’ construction. The research was developed through the identification of the Fire Safety applicable legislation to the designs in question, with the determination of the demanded conditions that are architect’s autonomy or that affect the architectural design. Tabulated the requirements, through data collection and measures gathered in the blueprints, was made a comparison and verification of the compliance with these. The results of this evaluation reveal that the minimum requirements was not fulfilled and that IFES’s architectural designs, taken as object in this study, certainly will suffer restrictions in their regularization process with the Fire Department. It is concluded that is necessary an improvement in the IFES’s designs to meet the minimum fire safety regulations and improvement in quality. Moreover, the results direct to the understanding that level of knowledge about Fire Safety received in undergraduate by architects is insufficient for appropriate elaboration of architectural designs in this area.

Evolução morfotectônica da porção centro-sul da Bacia Paraíba

Recent endogenous processes provide dynamic movements in the lithosphere and generate the varied forms of relief, even in areas of passive continental margins, such as the research area of this work located in northeastern Brazil. The reactivation of Precambrian basement structures, after the breakup between South America and Africa in the Cretaceous played an important role in the evolution of basins, which provided generated forms of relief. These morphodynamic characteristics can be easily observed in marginal basins that exhibit strong evidence fault reactivations. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of morphotectonic processes in the landscape structuring of Paraíba Basin. Therefore, we used aeromagnetic, high–resolution images of the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission–SRTM, structural geological data, deep well data and geological field data. Based on the results of the data was observed that some preexisting structures in the crystalline basement coincide with magnetic and topographic lineaments interpreted as fault reactivation of the Post–Miocene units in the Paraíba Basin. Faults that offset lithostratigraphic units provided evidence that tectonic activity associated with the deposition and erosion in the Paraíba Basin occurred from Cretaceous to the Quaternary. The neotectonic activity that occurred in Paraíba Basin was able to influence the deposition of sedimentary units and landforms. It indicates that the deposition of post–Cretaceous units was influenced by reactivation of Precambrian basement structures in this part of the Brazilian continental margin.

Tsunami simulation and detection using global navigation satellite system reflectometry

In this thesis, research for tsunami remote sensing using the Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) delay-Doppler maps (DDMs) is presented. Firstly, a process for simulating GNSS-R DDMs of a tsunami-dominated sea sur- face is described. In this method, the bistatic scattering Zavorotny-Voronovich (Z-V) model, the sea surface mean square slope model of Cox and Munk, and the tsunami- induced wind perturbation model are employed. The feasibility of the Cox and Munk model under a tsunami scenario is examined by comparing the Cox and Munk model- based scattering coefficient with the Jason-1 measurement. A good consistency be- tween these two results is obtained with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. After con- firming the applicability of the Cox and Munk model for a tsunami-dominated sea, this work provides the simulations of the scattering coefficient distribution and the corresponding DDMs of a fixed region of interest before and during the tsunami. Fur- thermore, by subtracting the simulation results that are free of tsunami from those with presence of tsunami, the tsunami-induced variations in scattering coefficients and DDMs can be clearly observed. Secondly, a scheme to detect tsunamis and estimate tsunami parameters from such tsunami-dominant sea surface DDMs is developed. As a first step, a procedure to de- termine tsunami-induced sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) from DDMs is demon- strated and a tsunami detection precept is proposed. Subsequently, the tsunami parameters (wave amplitude, direction and speed of propagation, wavelength, and the tsunami source location) are estimated based upon the detected tsunami-induced SSHAs. In application, the sea surface scattering coefficients are unambiguously re- trieved by employing the spatial integration approach (SIA) and the dual-antenna technique. Next, the effective wind speed distribution can be restored from the scat- tering coefficients. Assuming all DDMs are of a tsunami-dominated sea surface, the tsunami-induced SSHAs can be derived with the knowledge of background wind speed distribution. In addition, the SSHA distribution resulting from the tsunami-free DDM (which is supposed to be zero) is considered as an error map introduced during the overall retrieving stage and is utilized to mitigate such errors from influencing sub- sequent SSHA results. In particular, a tsunami detection procedure is conducted to judge the SSHAs to be truly tsunami-induced or not through a fitting process, which makes it possible to decrease the false alarm. After this step, tsunami parameter estimation is proceeded based upon the fitted results in the former tsunami detec- tion procedure. Moreover, an additional method is proposed for estimating tsunami propagation velocity and is believed to be more desirable in real-world scenarios. The above-mentioned tsunami-dominated sea surface DDM simulation, tsunami detection precept and parameter estimation have been tested with simulated data based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event.

Perfil exportador e crescimento econômico: uma análise de painel para economias africanas

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the export profile and the African GDP growth rate. Chapter 1 presents the literature on the subject and studies that analyze the specific case of Africa. There seems to be a consensus that exports contribute to economic growth. However, there is no consensus on the benefits that are incorporated from exported products. The divergence lies between the approach of the Natural Resources Curse, where concentration of exports in commodities does not contribute to economic growth. Another work line supports the idea there is no such relation. Chapter 2 presents, through descriptive analysis, macroeconomic and international trade data for African economies data. Based on data from 52 countries for the period 1990-2014, it can be observed that the African continent has improved in macroeconomic terms, with increased exports and economic growth rates, suggesting a positive relationship between the variables. Trade indicators show Africa's integration into the global economy, with European Union, USA, China and some emerging countries as main partners. In addition, the analysis showed that the export is concentrated in oil and agricultural commodities. Most African countries face a negative trade balance, depending of primary products exports with low added value and imports of manufactured goods. Finally, Chapter 3 presents an empirical research using panel data analysis. The results suggest, in general, evidences that exports are important for explaining the African economic growth rate of African economies can be stimulated by the expansion of the share of exports in GDP. The estimated coefficients are positive and statistically significant in both the fixed effect estimation, as the estimation by GMM System. The estimation of growth models for fixed or random effects indicates a direct and statistically significant relationship between export oil / minerals and the growth rate of African countries. Thus, the export profile turns out to be important to determine the growth rate. The results obtained from the estimates do not corroborate the literature arguments called Curse of Natural Resources for the period analyzed, since export natural resources, especially oil and minerals, were relevant to explain the performance of the growth rate of economies.