973 resultados para Monte - Carlo study
Resumo:
We have performed multicanonical simulations to study the critical behavior of the two-dimensional Ising model with dipole interactions. This study concerns the thermodynamic phase transitions in the range of the interaction delta where the phase characterized by striped configurations of width h = 1 is observed. Controversial results obtained from local update algorithms have been reported for this region, including the claimed existence of a second-order phase transition line that becomes first order above a tricritical point located somewhere between delta = 0.85 and 1. Our analysis relies on the complex partition function zeros obtained with high statistics from multicanonical simulations. Finite size scaling relations for the leading partition function zeros yield critical exponents. that are clearly consistent with a single second-order phase transition line, thus excluding such a tricritical point in that region of the phase diagram. This conclusion is further supported by analysis of the specific heat and susceptibility of the orientational order parameter.
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The study of proportions is a common topic in many fields of study. The standard beta distribution or the inflated beta distribution may be a reasonable choice to fit a proportion in most situations. However, they do not fit well variables that do not assume values in the open interval (0, c), 0 < c < 1. For these variables, the authors introduce the truncated inflated beta distribution (TBEINF). This proposed distribution is a mixture of the beta distribution bounded in the open interval (c, 1) and the trinomial distribution. The authors present the moments of the distribution, its scoring vector, and Fisher information matrix, and discuss estimation of its parameters. The properties of the suggested estimators are studied using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the authors present an application of the TBEINF distribution for unemployment insurance data.
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Measurements of the sphericity of primary charged particles in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at root s = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC are presented. The observable is measured in the plane perpendicular to the beam direction using primary charged tracks with p(T) > 0.5 GeV/c in vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.8. The mean sphericity as a function of the charged particle multiplicity at mid-rapidity (N-ch) is reported for events with different p(T) scales ("soft" and "hard") defined by the transverse momentum of the leading particle. In addition, the mean charged particle transverse momentum versus multiplicity is presented for the different event classes, and the sphericity distributions in bins of multiplicity are presented. The data are compared with calculations of standard Monte Carlo event generators. The transverse sphericity is found to grow with multiplicity at all collision energies, with a steeper rise at low N-ch, whereas the event generators show an opposite tendency. The combined study of the sphericity and the mean p(T) with multiplicity indicates that most of the tested event generators produce events with higher multiplicity by generating more back-to-back jets resulting in decreased sphericity (and isotropy). The PYTHIA6 generator with tune PERUGIA-2011 exhibits a noticeable improvement in describing the data, compared to the other tested generators.
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Abstract Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV) can be classified into nine genotypes (A-I) defined by sequence divergence of more than 8% based on the complete genome. This study aims to identify the genotypic distribution of HBV in 40 HBsAg-positive patients from Rondônia, Brazil. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising surface and polymerase overlapping genes was amplified by PCR. Amplified DNA was purified and sequenced. Amplified DNA was purified and sequenced on an ABI PRISM® 377 Automatic Sequencer (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). The obtained sequences were aligned with reference sequences obtained from the GenBank using Clustal X software and then edited with Se-Al software. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using BEAST v.1.5.3. Results The subgenotypes distribution was A1 (37.1%), D3 (22.8%), F2a (20.0%), D4 (17.1%) and D2 (2.8%). Conclusions These results for the first HBV genotypic characterization in Rondônia state are consistent with other studies in Brazil, showing the presence of several HBV genotypes that reflects the mixed origin of the population, involving descendants from Native Americans, Europeans, and Africans.
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Abstract Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important human pathogen affecting around 3% of the human population. In Brazil, it is estimated that there are approximately 2 to 3 million HCV chronic carriers. There are few reports of HCV prevalence in Rondônia State (RO), but it was estimated in 9.7% from 1999 to 2005. The aim of this study was to characterize HCV genotypes in 58 chronic HCV infected patients from Porto Velho, Rondônia (RO), Brazil. Methods A fragment of 380 bp of NS5B region was amplified by nested PCR for genotyping analysis. Viral sequences were characterized by phylogenetic analysis using reference sequences obtained from the GenBank (n = 173). Sequences were aligned using Muscle software and edited in the SE-AL software. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) to obtain the MCC tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Results From 58 anti-HCV positive samples, 22 were positive to the NS5B fragment and successfully sequenced. Genotype 1b was the most prevalent in this population (50%), followed by 1a (27.2%), 2b (13.6%) and 3a (9.0%). Conclusions This study is the first report of HCV genotypes from Rondônia State and subtype 1b was found to be the most prevalent. This subtype is mostly found among people who have a previous history of blood transfusion but more detailed studies with a larger number of patients are necessary to understand the HCV dynamics in the population of Rondônia State, Brazil.
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Abstract Background The Brazilian population is mainly descendant from European colonizers, Africans and Native Americans. Some Afro-descendants lived in small isolated communities since the slavery period. The epidemiological status of HBV infection in Quilombos communities from northeast of Brazil remains unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize the HBV genotypes circulating inside a Quilombo isolated community from Maranhão State, Brazil. Methods Seventy-two samples from Frechal Quilombo community at Maranhão were collected. All serum samples were screened by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for the presence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). HBsAg positive samples were submitted to DNA extraction and a fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified by nested PCR and its nucleotide sequence was determined. Viral isolates were genotyped by phylogenetic analysis using reference sequences from each genotype obtained from GenBank (n = 320). Sequences were aligned using Muscle software and edited in the SE-AL software. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to obtain the MCC tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Results Of the 72 individuals, 9 (12.5%) were HBsAg-positive and 4 of them were successfully sequenced for the 1306 bp fragment. All these samples were genotype A1 and grouped together with other sequences reported from Brazil. Conclusions The present study represents the first report on the HBV genotypes characterization of this community in the Maranhão state in Brazil where a high HBsAg frequency was found. In this study, we reported a high frequency of HBV infection and the exclusive presence of subgenotype A1 in an Afro-descendent community in the Maranhão State, Brazil.
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Abstract Background The generalized odds ratio (GOR) was recently suggested as a genetic model-free measure for association studies. However, its properties were not extensively investigated. We used Monte Carlo simulations to investigate type-I error rates, power and bias in both effect size and between-study variance estimates of meta-analyses using the GOR as a summary effect, and compared these results to those obtained by usual approaches of model specification. We further applied the GOR in a real meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies in Alzheimer's disease. Findings For bi-allelic polymorphisms, the GOR performs virtually identical to a standard multiplicative model of analysis (e.g. per-allele odds ratio) for variants acting multiplicatively, but augments slightly the power to detect variants with a dominant mode of action, while reducing the probability to detect recessive variants. Although there were differences among the GOR and usual approaches in terms of bias and type-I error rates, both simulation- and real data-based results provided little indication that these differences will be substantial in practice for meta-analyses involving bi-allelic polymorphisms. However, the use of the GOR may be slightly more powerful for the synthesis of data from tri-allelic variants, particularly when susceptibility alleles are less common in the populations (≤10%). This gain in power may depend on knowledge of the direction of the effects. Conclusions For the synthesis of data from bi-allelic variants, the GOR may be regarded as a multiplicative-like model of analysis. The use of the GOR may be slightly more powerful in the tri-allelic case, particularly when susceptibility alleles are less common in the populations.
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Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.
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The oregano is a plant, rich in essential oil and very used as spice in the preparation of foods. The objective of this paper was to analyze the viability of irrigation for oregano in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo state, Brazil, including economic risk factors, their effect on irrigation total cost, as well as the different pumping kinds. The Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to study the economic factors: fixed cost, labor, maintenance, pumping and water. The use of irrigation for the oregano in the region of Presidente Prudente is indicated because of its economic feasibility and the reduced risks. The average values of the benefit/cost for all water depths tested were higher than 1, indicating viability. The use of irrigation promoted lower risks compared to the non irrigated crop. The micro irrigation system presented greater sensitivity to changes of prices of the equipment associated to the variation of the useful life of the system. The oregano selling price was the most important factor involved in annual net profit. The water cost was the factor of lesser influence on the total cost. Due to the characteristic of high drip irrigation frequency there was no difference between the tariffs based in use hour of electric energy classified as green and blue, which are characterized by applying different rates on the energy consumption and demand according to the hours of day and times of the year. For the studied region it was recommended drip irrigation water management of oregano with the daily application of 100% of pan evaporation Class A using electric motor with tariffs blue or green.
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a flexible tool to represent different types of random variables/processes. However, applications to real, experimental data are still limited. In this article, PCE is used to represent the random time-evolution of metal corrosion growth in marine environments. The PCE coefficients are determined in order to represent data of 45 corrosion coupons tested by Jeffrey and Melchers (2001) at Taylors Beach, Australia. Accuracy of the representation and possibilities for model extrapolation are considered in the study. Results show that reasonably accurate smooth representations of the corrosion process can be obtained. The representation is not better because a smooth model is used to represent non-smooth corrosion data. Random corrosion leads to time-variant reliability problems, due to resistance degradation over time. Time variant reliability problems are not trivial to solve, especially under random process loading. Two example problems are solved herein, showing how the developed PCE representations can be employed in reliability analysis of structures subject to marine corrosion. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to solve the resulting time-variant reliability problems. However, an accurate and more computationally efficient solution is also presented.
Resumo:
This paper addresses the analysis of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to ions chloride penetration. Structural durability is an important criterion which must be evaluated in every type of structure, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. Considering reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate the durability. Therefore, at modelling this phenomenon, corrosion of reinforcements can be better estimated and prevented. These processes begin when a threshold level of chlorides concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in the literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due to the inherently randomness observed in this process. In this regard, the durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. A probabilistic analysis of ions chloride penetration is presented in this paper. The ions chloride penetration is simulated using the Fick's second law of diffusion. This law represents the chloride diffusion process, considering time dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena and a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.
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Abstract Background HBV genotype F is primarily found in indigenous populations from South America and is classified in four subgenotypes (F1 to F4). Subgenotype F2a is the most common in Brazil among genotype F cases. The aim of this study was to characterize HBV genotype F2a circulating in 16 patients from São Paulo, Brazil. Samples were collected between 2006 and 2012 and sent to Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and DNA polymerase coding regions was amplified and sequenced. Viral sequences were genotyped by phylogenetic analysis using reference sequences from GenBank (n=198), including 80 classified as subgenotype F2a. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in BEAST v.1.5.4 was applied to obtain the best possible estimates using the model of nucleotide substitutions GTR+G+I. Findings It were identified three groups of sequences of subgenotype F2a: 1) 10 sequences from São Paulo state; 2) 3 sequences from Rio de Janeiro and one from São Paulo states; 3) 8 sequences from the West Amazon Basin. Conclusions These results showing for the first time the distribution of F2a subgenotype in Brazil. The spreading and the dynamic of subgenotype F2a in Brazil requires the study of a higher number of samples from different regions as it is unfold in almost all Brazilian populations studied so far. We cannot infer with certainty the origin of these different groups due to the lack of available sequences. Nevertheless, our data suggest that the common origin of these groups probably occurred a long time ago.
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We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.
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An out of equilibrium Ising model subjected to an irreversible dynamics is analyzed by means of a stochastic dynamics, on a effort that aims to understand the observed critical behavior as consequence of the intrinsic microscopic characteristics. The study focus on the kinetic phase transitions that take place by assuming a lattice model with inversion symmetry and under the influence of two competing Glauber dynamics, intended to describe the stationary states using the entropy production, which characterize the system behavior and clarifies its reversibility conditions. Thus, it is considered a square lattice formed by two sublattices interconnected, each one of which is in contact with a heat bath at different temperature from the other. Analytical and numerical treatments are faced, using mean-field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations. For the one dimensional model exact results for the entropy production were obtained, though in this case the phase transition that takes place in the two dimensional counterpart is not observed, fact which is in accordance with the behavior shared by lattice models presenting inversion symmetry. Results found for the stationary state show a critical behavior of the same class as the equilibrium Ising model with a phase transition of the second order, which is evidenced by a divergence with an exponent µ ¼ 0:003 of the entropy production derivative.
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There is special interest in the incorporation of metallic nanoparticles in a surrounding dielectric matrix for obtaining composites with desirable characteristics such as for surface plasmon resonance, which can be used in photonics and sensing, and controlled surface electrical conductivity. We investigated nanocomposites produced through metallic ion implantation in insulating substrate, where the implanted metal self-assembles into nanoparticles. During the implantation, the excess of metal atom concentration above the solubility limit leads to nucleation and growth of metal nanoparticles, driven by the temperature and temperature gradients within the implanted sample including the beam-induced thermal characteristics. The nanoparticles nucleate near the maximum of the implantation depth profile (projected range), that can be estimated by computer simulation using the TRIDYN. This is a Monte Carlo simulation program based on the TRIM (Transport and Range of Ions in Matter) code that takes into account compositional changes in the substrate due to two factors: previously implanted dopant atoms, and sputtering of the substrate surface. Our study suggests that the nanoparticles form a bidimentional array buried few nanometers below the substrate surface. More specifically we have studied Au/PMMA (polymethylmethacrylate), Pt/PMMA, Ti/alumina and Au/alumina systems. Transmission electron microscopy of the implanted samples showed the metallic nanoparticles formed in the insulating matrix. The nanocomposites were characterized by measuring the resistivity of the composite layer as function of the dose implanted. These experimental results were compared with a model based on percolation theory, in which electron transport through the composite is explained by conduction through a random resistor network formed by the metallic nanoparticles. Excellent agreement was found between the experimental results and the predictions of the theory. It was possible to conclude, in all cases, that the conductivity process is due only to percolation (when the conducting elements are in geometric contact) and that the contribution from tunneling conduction is negligible.