Modelling risk at low exposure railway level crossings : supporting an argument for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity

This paper describes a risk model for estimating the likelihood of collisions at low-exposure railway level crossings, demonstrating the effect that differences in safety integrity can have on the likelihood of a collision. The model facilitates the comparison of safety benefits between level crossings with passive controls (stop or give-way signs) and level crossings that have been hypothetically upgraded with conventional or low-cost warning devices. The scenario presented illustrates how treatment of a cross-section of level crossings with low cost devices can provide a greater safety benefit compared to treatment with conventional warning devices for the same budget.

Late Oligocene to Middle Miocene rifting and synextensional magmatism in the southwestern Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico : the beginning of the Gulf of California rift

Although Basin and Range–style extension affected large areas of western Mexico after the Late Eocene, most consider that extension in the Gulf of California region began as subduction waned and ended ca. 14–12.5 Ma. A general consensus also exists in considering Early and Middle Miocene volcanism of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Comondú Group as subduction related, whereas volcanism after ca. 12.5 Ma is extension related. Here we present a new regional geologic study of the eastern Gulf of California margin in the states of Nayarit and Sinaloa, Mexico, backed by 43 new Ar-Ar and U-Pb mineral ages, and geochemical data that document an earlier widespread phase of extension. This extension across the southern and central Gulf Extensional Province began between Late Oligocene and Early Miocene time, but was focused in the region of the future Gulf of California in the Middle Miocene. Late Oligocene to Early Miocene rocks across northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa were affected by major approximately north-south– to north-northwest– striking normal faults prior to ca. 21 Ma. Between ca. 21 and 11 Ma, a system of north-northwest–south-southeast high angle extensional faults continued extending the southwestern side of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Rhyolitic domes, shallow intrusive bodies, and lesser basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 20–17 Ma. Rhyolitic rocks, in particular the domes and lavas, often show strong antecrystic inheritance but only a few Mesozoic or older xenocrysts, suggesting silicic magma generation in the mid-upper crust triggered by an extension induced basaltic infl ux. In northern Sinaloa, large grabens were occupied by huge volcanic dome complexes ca. 21–17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated as 15–14 Ma, a stratigraphy and timing very similar to those found in central Sonora (northeastern Gulf of California margin). Early to Middle Miocene volcanism occurred thus in rift basins, and was likely associated with decompression melting of upper mantle (inducing crustal partial melting) rather than with fluxing by fluids from the young and slow subducting microplates. Along the eastern side of the Gulf of California coast, from Farallón de San Ignacio island offshore Los Mochis, Sinaloa, to San Blas, Nayarit, a strike distance of >700 km, flat lying basaltic lavas dated as ca. 11.5–10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here crustal thickness is almost half that in the unextended core of the adjacent Sierra Madre Occidental, implying signifi cant lithosphere stretching before ca. 11 Ma. This mafic pulse, with subdued Nb-Ta negative spikes, may be related to the detachment of the lower part of the subducted slab, allowing an upward asthenospheric flow into an upper mantle previously modified by fluid fluxes related to past subduction. Widespread eruption of very uniform oceanic island basalt–like lavas occurred by the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, only 20 m.y. after the onset of rifting and ~9 m.y. after the end of subduction, implying that preexisting subduction-modified mantle had now become isolated from melt source regions. Our study shows that rifting across the southern-central Gulf Extensional Province began much earlier than the Late Miocene and provided a fundamental control on the style and composition of volcanism from at least 30 Ma. We envision a sustained period of lithospheric stretching and magmatism during which the pace and breadth of extension changed ca. 20–18 Ma to be narrower, and again after ca. 12.5 Ma, when the kinematics of rifting became more oblique.

Examining the stability of transport behaviours for high-risk early adolescents

Transport related injury is a leading cause of death and disability for adolescents and represents a substantial burden on public health and the community as a whole. Adolescents appear to have a growing risk of harm due to the co-existence of increasing alcohol use and engagement in risky transport behaviours. Understanding more about the development and stability of these behaviours by young adolescents over time could be beneficial in targeting transport injury prevention interventions for high-risk adolescents. In Australia alcohol use begins to increase significantly through the early and middle adolescent years even though the majority of these young people are still in school. Aim This paper reports on changes over a six month period in alcohol use, anger management experiences and transport risk taking behaviours including riding a bicycle without a helmet and under-age driving for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk early adolescents. Year 9 students (N=1,005) from 20 schools in Queensland, Australia completed a baseline survey in the first half of 2012 and at a six month follow up. Respondents at both times were asked about their engagement in risk taking behaviours measured by Mak’s adolescent delinquency scale, which included five transport related items. They were also asked to rate their alcohol use for the preceding three month period. The stability of these risk taking indicators was measured by comparing baseline results with the six month follow up. Results High-risk adolescents were more likely to report change in their alcohol use and transport behaviours when compared with non high-risk adolescents over a six month period. There were no significant changes in control of anger for either group. Demographic characteristics were not shown to have any significant effect on the stability of risk indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. Differences were found in the stability of risk taking indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. The findings of this paper have implications in targeting transport risk behaviour change interventions to meet the needs of high-risk adolescents.

What it means to be green : an examination of early stage environmental and sustainability focused firms

This paper examines ‘green’ entrepreneurial nascent and young firms in Australia. Findings of interest in this paper include: • Green entrepreneurs are more likely to be highly educated and have an extended depth of experience within their industry and are more likely to have started a business prior to their current venture. • Green entrepreneurs exhibit increased levels of innovation, with an increased focus on new & high technology, R&D and the development of proprietary technology. • Green entrepreneurs are most likely to be based upon a product rather than a service and have a higher emphasis upon growth when compared with non-green entrepreneurs. • Green entrepreneurial firms tend to have a longer venture creation process and draw financial resources from a larger number of sources and rely more upon equity as a means of financing their venture.

Randomized controlled trial : a randomized controlled clinical trial comparing a remineralizing paste with an antibacterial gel to prevent early childhood caries

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to compare twice daily tooth-brushing using 0.304 percent fluoride toothpaste alone with: (1) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 10% casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP-ACP) paste; and (2) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 0.12% chlorhexidine gel (CHX) for reducing early childhood caries (ECC) and mutans streptococci (MS) colonization. METHODS: Subjects (n=622) recruited at birth were randomized to receive either CPP-ACP or CHX or no product (study control [SC]). All children were examined at 6, 12, and 18 months old in their homes, and at 24 months old in a community dental clinic. RESULTS: At 24 months old, the caries incidence was 1% (2/163) in CPP-ACP, 2% (4/180) in CHX, and 2% (3/188) in SC groups. In children who were previously MS colonized at 12 and 18 months old, 0% (0/11) and 5% (3/63), respectively, of the CPP-ACP group remained MS-positive versus 22% (2/9) and 72% (18/25) in CHX and 16% (4/25) and 50% (7/14) in SC groups (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to justify the daily use of casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate or chlorhexidine gel to control early childhood caries.

A randomised, controlled clinical trial comparing chlorhexidine gel and low-dose fluoride toothpaste to prevent early childhood caries

Objectives This randomised, controlled trial compared the effectiveness of 0.12% chlorhexidine (CHX) gel and 304% fluoride toothpaste to prevent early childhood caries (ECC) in a birth cohort by 24 months. Methods The participants were randomised to receive either (i) twice daily toothbrushing with toothpaste and once daily 0.12% CHX gel (n = 110) or (ii) twice daily toothbrushing with toothpaste only (study controls) (n = 89). The primary outcome measured was caries incidence and the secondary outcome was percentage of children with mutans streptococci (MS). All mothers were contacted by telephone at 6, 12, and 18 months. At 24 months, all children were examined at a community dental clinic. Results At 24 months, the caries prevalence was 5% (3/61) in the CHX and 7% (4/58) in the controls (P = 0.7). There were no differences in percentages of MS-positive children between the CHX and control groups (54%vs 53%). Only 20% applied the CHX gel once daily and 80% less than once daily. Conclusions Toothbrushing using 304% fluoride toothpaste with or without the application of chlorhexidine gel (0.12%) reduces ECC from 23% found in the general community to 5–7%. The lack of effect with chlorhexidine is likely to be due to low compliance.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered education programme to prevent early childhood caries in a disadvantaged area : a cohort study

Objectives Early childhood caries is a highly destructive dental disease which is compounded by the need for young children to be treated under general anaesthesia. In Australia, there are long waiting periods for treatment at public hospitals. In this paper, we examined the costs and patient outcomes of a prevention programme for early childhood caries to assess its value for government services. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. Setting Public dental patients in a low socioeconomic, socially disadvantaged area in the State of Queensland, Australia. Participants Children aged 6 months to 6 years received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Primary and secondary outcome measures A mathematical model was used to assess caries incidence and public dental treatment costs for a cohort of children. Healthcare costs, treatment probabilities and caries incidence were modelled from 6 months to 6 years of age based on trial data from mothers and their children who received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the findings to uncertainty in the model estimates. Results By age 6 years, the telephone intervention programme had prevented an estimated 43 carious teeth and saved £69 984 in healthcare costs per 100 children. The results were sensitive to the cost of general anaesthesia (cost-savings range £36 043–£97 298) and the incidence of caries in the prevention group (cost-savings range £59 496–£83 368) and usual care (cost-savings range £46 833–£93 328), but there were cost savings in all scenarios. Conclusions A telephone intervention that aims to prevent early childhood caries is likely to generate considerable and immediate patient benefits and cost savings to the public dental health service in disadvantaged communities.