Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

Disaggregation of polygons of surficial geology and soil maps using spatial modelling and legacy data

Examples from the Murray-Darling basin in Australia are used to illustrate different methods of disaggregation of reconnaissance-scale maps. One approach for disaggregation revolves around the de-convolution of the soil-landscape paradigm elaborated during a soil survey. The descriptions of soil ma units and block diagrams in a soil survey report detail soil-landscape relationships or soil toposequences that can be used to disaggregate map units into component landscape elements. Toposequences can be visualised on a computer by combining soil maps with digital elevation data. Expert knowledge or statistics can be used to implement the disaggregation. Use of a restructuring element and k-means clustering are illustrated. Another approach to disaggregation uses training areas to develop rules to extrapolate detailed mapping into other, larger areas where detailed mapping is unavailable. A two-level decision tree example is presented. At one level, the decision tree method is used to capture mapping rules from the training area; at another level, it is used to define the domain over which those rules can be extrapolated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Modelling of post-irradiation events in polymer gel dosimeters

The nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spin-spin relaxation time (T-2) is related to the radiation-dependent concentration of polymer formed in polymer gel dosimeters manufactured from monomers in an aqueous gelatin matrix. Changes in T-2 with time post-irradiation have been reported in the literature but their nature is not fully understood. We investigated those changes with time after irradiation using FT-Raman spectroscopy and the precise determination of T-2 at high magnetic field in a polymer gel dosimeter, A model of fast exchange of magnetization taking into account ongoing gelation and strengthening of the gelatin matrix as well as the polymerization of the monomers with time is presented. Published data on the changes of T-2 in gelatin gels as a function of post-manufacture time are used and fitted closely by the model presented. The same set of parameters characterizing the variations of T-2 in gelatin gels and the increasing concentration of polymer determined from Fr-Raman spectroscopy are used successfully in the modelling of irradiated polymer gel dosimeters. Minimal variations in T-2 in an irradiated PAG dosimeter are observed after 13 h.

Structuring real-time Object-Z specifications

This paper presents a means of structuring specifications in real-time Object-Z: an integration of Object-Z with the timed refinement calculus. Incremental modification of classes using inheritance and composition of classes to form multi-component systems are examined. Two approaches to the latter are considered: using Object-Z's notion of object instantiation and introducing a parallel composition operator similar to those found in process algebras. The parallel composition operator approach is both more concise and allows more general modelling of concurrency. Its incorporation into the existing semantics of real-time Object-Z is presented.

Evaluating design proposals for complex systems with work domain analysis

In this paper we propose a new framework for evaluating designs based on work domain analysis, the first phase of cognitive work analysis. We develop a rationale for a new approach to evaluation by describing the unique characteristics of complex systems and by showing that systems engineering techniques only partially accommodate these characteristics. We then present work domain analysis as a complementary framework for evaluation. We explain this technique by example by showing how the Australian Defence Force used work domain analysis to evaluate design proposals for a new system called Airborne Early Warning and Control. This case study also demonstrates that work domain analysis is a useful and feasible approach that complements standard techniques for evaluation and that promotes a central role for human factors professionals early in the system design and development process. Actual or potential applications of this research include the evaluation of designs for complex systems.

Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Analysis of steady-state heat transfer through mid-crustal vertical cracks with upward throughflow in hydrothermal systems

We conduct a theoretical analysis of steady-state heat transfer problems through mid-crustal vertical cracks with upward throughflow in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we derive analytical solutions for both the far field and near field of the system. In order to investigate the contribution of the forced advection to the total temperature of the system, two concepts, namely the critical Peclet number and the critical permeability of the system, have been presented and discussed in this paper. The analytical solution for the far field of the system indicates that if the pore-fluid pressure gradient in the crust is lithostatic, the critical permeability of the system can be used to determine whether or not the contribution of the forced advection to the total temperature of the system is negligible. Otherwise, the critical Peclet number should be used. For a crust of moderate thickness, the critical permeability is of the order of magnitude of 10(-20) m(2), under which heat conduction is the overwhelming mechanism to transfer heat energy, even though the pore-fluid pressure gradient in the crust is lithostatic. Furthermore, the lower bound analytical solution for the near field of the system demonstrates that the permeable vertical cracks in the middle crust can efficiently transfer heat energy from the lower crust to the upper crust of the Earth. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

α′ phase stability in Nd-Li-sialon systems

The formability and stability of the alpha-sialon (alpha') phase was investigated in multi-cation Nd-Li-sialon systems. Four samples were prepared, ranging from a pure Nd-sialon to a pure Li-sialon, with two intermediate samples being prepared with either lithium or neodymium replacing the other alpha'-stabilising additive by 20 eq.%, as to maintain an equivalent design composition in all samples. After sintering, all samples were subsequently heat treated up to 192 h at 1450 and 1300 degreesC. While significant quantities of the beta'-sialon (beta' phase were found in most samples, the high-lithium Li-Nd-sialon sample was found to be almost pure a' phase after sintering. Furthermore, the long-term stability of the a' phase on heat treatment was also found to be superior in both multi-cation samples than in either of the single-alpha'-stabilising-cation samples. This is thought to be related to improved retention of the lithium in the multi-cation systems, as much of the lithium was found to volatilise during sintering in the neodymium-free sample. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of hot intrusions on pore-fluid flow and heat transfer in fluid-saturated rocks

We use the finite element method to solve coupled problems between pore-fluid flow and heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous rocks. In particular, we investigate the effects of both the hot pluton intrusion and topographically driven horizontal flow on the distributions of the pore-flow velocity and temperature in large-scale hydrothermal systems. Since general mineralization patterns are strongly dependent on distributions of both the pore-fluid velocity and temperature fields, the modern mineralization theory has been used to predict the general mineralization patterns in several realistic hydrothermal systems. The related numerical results have demonstrated that: (1) The existence of a hot intrusion can cause an increase in the maximum value of the pore-fluid velocity in the hydrothermal system. (2) The permeability of an intruded pluton is one of the sensitive parameters to control the pore-fluid flow, heat transfer and ore body formation in hydrothermal systems. (3) The maximum value of the pore-fluid velocity increases when the bottom temperature of the hydrothermal system is increased. (4) The topographically driven flow has significant effects on the pore-fluid flow, temperature distribution and precipitation pattern of minerals in hydrothermal systems. (5) The size of the computational domain may have some effects on the pore-fluid flow and heat transfer, indicating that the size of a hydrothermal system may affect the pore-fluid flow and heat transfer within the system. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Special issue: Selected papers from the sixth IFIP 2.6 working conference on visual database systems: Guest editors' introduction

While multimedia data, image data in particular, is an integral part of most websites and web documents, our quest for information so far is still restricted to text based search. To explore the World Wide Web more effectively, especially its rich repository of truly multimedia information, we are facing a number of challenging problems. Firstly, we face the ambiguous and highly subjective nature of defining image semantics and similarity. Secondly, multimedia data could come from highly diversified sources, as a result of automatic image capturing and generation processes. Finally, multimedia information exists in decentralised sources over the Web, making it difficult to use conventional content-based image retrieval (CBIR) techniques for effective and efficient search. In this special issue, we present a collection of five papers on visual and multimedia information management and retrieval topics, addressing some aspects of these challenges. These papers have been selected from the conference proceedings (Kluwer Academic Publishers, ISBN: 1-4020- 7060-8) of the Sixth IFIP 2.6 Working Conference on Visual Database Systems (VDB6), held in Brisbane, Australia, on 29–31 May 2002.