Predictive analytical and numerical modeling for orthogonal cutting

In this thesis, a predictive analytical and numerical modeling approach for the orthogonal cutting process is proposed to calculate temperature distributions and subsequently, forces and stress distributions. The models proposed include a constitutive model for the material being cut based on the work of Weber, a model for the shear plane based on Merchants model, a model describing the contribution of friction based on Zorev’s approach, a model for the effect of wear on the tool based on the work of Waldorf, and a thermal model based on the works of Komanduri and Hou, with a fraction heat partition for a non-uniform distribution of the heat in the interfaces, but extended to encompass a set of contributions to the global temperature rise of chip, tool and work piece. The models proposed in this work, try to avoid from experimental based values or expressions, and simplifying assumptions or suppositions, as much as possible. On a thermo-physical point of view, the results were affected not only by the mechanical or cutting parameters chosen, but also by their coupling effects, instead of the simplifying way of modeling which is to contemplate only the direct effect of the variation of a parameter. The implementation of these models was performed using the MATLAB environment. Since it was possible to find in the literature all the parameters for AISI 1045 and AISI O2, these materials were used to run the simulations in order to avoid arbitrary assumption.

A solution for estimates in software development projects

The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

Smart-RBAC

Generally, smart campus applications do not consider the role of the user with his/her position in a university environment, consequently irrelevant information is delivered to the users. This dissertation proposes a location-based access control model, named Smart-RBAC, extending the functionality of Role-based Access Control Model (RBAC) by including user’s location as the contextual attribute, to solve the aforementioned problem. Smart-RBAC model is designed with a focus on content delivery to the user in order to offer a feasible level of flexibility, which was missing in the existing location-based access control models. An instance of the model, derived from Liferay’s RBAC, is implemented by creating a portal application to test and validate the Smart-RBAC model. Additionally, portlet-based applications are developed to assess the suitability of the model in a smart campus environment. The evaluation of the model, based on a popular theoretical framework, demonstrates the model’s capability to achieve some security goals like “Dynamic Separation of Duty” and “Accountability”. We believe that the Smart-RBAC model will improve the existing smart campus applications since it utilizes both, role and location of the user, to deliver content.

Fatores de prognóstico para os resultados de sucesso da fisioterapia multimodal em utentes com dor cervical crónica

RESUMO: Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.--------------- ABSTRACT:Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047-1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109-0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

Curso clínico da dor lombar crónica após alta da fisioterapia : trajetórias de dor no follow-up aos quatro e seis meses

RESUMO:Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.-----------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047- 1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109- 0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

Canada, a child's play

Science4you, a Portuguese developer, producer and seller of scientific and educational toys, leveraged the worldwide growth of this category to successfully expand its operations abroad. Following a recent entry into the United States market, the purpose of this report is to help the company define the next step in its international expansion. A customized scoring model, based on a set of relevant macro and micro-criteria was developed for Anglo-Saxon and Asian countries, yielding Canada as the market with the highest potential. The recommended entry mode is direct exporting via an independent distributor, being complemented with a financial and risk analysis.

Plan to bear fruit

Frutaformas is a Portuguese micro-enterprise, specialized in the production of premium dehydrated-fruit, an emerging snack category fostered by the increasing trend for healthier alimentary habits in developed countries. The relatively small size of the domestic market and the growing competition led Frutaformas to consider Europe as an attractive for export market. A scoring model based on a set of macro and micro-level criteria suggested the United Kingdom as the preferential target country at this stage. Recommendations on the entry mode and the associated risks were elaborated taking into account the country and industry analysis as well as Frutaformas’ unique organizational platform.

O serviço fiscal aduaneiro criminal e contraordenacional da GNR

At a time of global economic instability, to which Portugal is not oblivious, and aware that the main source of Portuguese State revenue relies on the collection of tribute, the National Republican Guard holds within its mission relevant assignments to the protection of the financial interests of the country, in particular, fiscal and customs. These assignments were inherited from the century - old institution Guarda Fiscal - with evidence given in this domain, which was integrated into the National Republican Guard in 1993, to adopt, a 1St model, that held a specialized unit – Brigada Fiscal, with surveillance and patrolling missions of costa and fiscal and customs supervision, throughout the national territory and maritime zone of respect. In 2009, the result of political decisions, reorganization the State's central administration, appears de 2Nd model, because the Brigada Fiscal assignments were divided by two specialized units - UAF with investigation skills, and UCC for patrolling and surveillance of the coast. Analyzed the legal spectrum of special legislation leading the criminal and transgression sector punitive (RGIT), in essence, is in the UAF that resides the role assignments from the scope of the investigation and supervision of goods in the national territory on a par with the tax authority. Tax inspection assignments, fiscal and customs of the National Republican Guard, are unmatched in the National Tribute System, constituting itself as a potentiality of this special body, in similarity of their counterparts - Spain and Italy; however, have some constraints, that urge to clarify and repair. Foreseeing the future, face the announced news of a new restructuring, on behalf of the interests of the country, and in order to raise the quality of performance of the tax inspection, fiscal and customs, the National Republican Guard shall maintain a model based on the experience already accumulated, obviously adapted to the new demands of a changing society. Despite the current model gain in efficiency, loses in effectiveness. However, the efficiency of a model, without the necessary resources, can never bring “the letter to Garcia” against any kind of infringements, criminal or transgressions. Unless better opinion, both tax structures of the National Republican Guard are valid as an instrument for the prevention and combat of these illegal types. Because they are strategic in pursuing the public interest, given the scarce resources of the country and be the National Republican Guard, the force with the means and know-how of this nature. The political power has the final word.