Historical Development and Applications of the EPIC and APEX Models, June 2005

The development of the field-scale Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model was initiated in 1981 to support assessments of soil erosion impacts on soil productivity for soil, climate, and cropping conditions representative of a broad spectrum of U.S. agricultural production regions. The first major application of EPIC was a national analysis performed in support of the 1985 Resources Conservation Act (RCA) assessment. The model has continuously evolved since that time and has been applied for a wide range of field, regional, and national studies both in the U.S. and in other countries. The range of EPIC applications has also expanded greatly over that time, including studies of (1) surface runoff and leaching estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus losses from fertilizer and manure applications, (2) leaching and runoff from simulated pesticide applications, (3) soil erosion losses from wind erosion, (4) climate change impacts on crop yield and erosion, and (5) soil carbon sequestration assessments. The EPIC acronym now stands for Erosion Policy Impact Climate, to reflect the greater diversity of problems to which the model is currently applied. The Agricultural Policy EXtender (APEX) model is essentially a multi-field version of EPIC that was developed in the late 1990s to address environmental problems associated with livestock and other agricultural production systems on a whole-farm or small watershed basis. The APEX model also continues to evolve and to be utilized for a wide variety of environmental assessments. The historical development for both models will be presented, as well as example applications on several different scales.

Estimation of the viscoelastic properties of vessel walls using a computational model and Doppler ultrasound

Human arteries affected by atherosclerosis are characterized by altered wall viscoelastic properties. The possibility of noninvasively assessing arterial viscoelasticity in vivo would significantly contribute to the early diagnosis and prevention of this disease. This paper presents a noniterative technique to estimate the viscoelastic parameters of a vascular wall Zener model. The approach requires the simultaneous measurement of flow variations and wall displacements, which can be provided by suitable ultrasound Doppler instruments. Viscoelastic parameters are estimated by fitting the theoretical constitutive equations to the experimental measurements using an ARMA parameter approach. The accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method are tested using reference data generated by numerical simulations of arterial pulsation in which the physiological conditions and the viscoelastic parameters of the model can be suitably varied. The estimated values quantitatively agree with the reference values, showing that the only parameter affected by changing the physiological conditions is viscosity, whose relative error was about 27% even when a poor signal-to-noise ratio is simulated. Finally, the feasibility of the method is illustrated through three measurements made at different flow regimes on a cylindrical vessel phantom, yielding a parameter mean estimation error of 25%.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Dispensable role of myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MyD88) and MyD88-dependent toll-like receptors (TLRs) in a murine model of osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study was to evaluate the role of cell-membrane expressed TLRs and the signaling molecule MyD88 in a murine model of OA induced by knee menisectomy (surgical partial removal of the medial meniscus [MNX]). METHODS: OA was induced in 8-10weeks old C57Bl/6 wild-type (WT) female (n=7) mice and in knockout (KO) TLR-1 (n=7), -2 (n=8), -4 (n=9) -6 (n=5), MyD88 (n=8) mice by medial menisectomy, using the sham-operated contralateral knee as a control. Cartilage destruction and synovial inflammation were evaluated by knee joint histology using the OARSI scoring method. Apoptotic chondrocytes and cartilage metabolism (collagen II synthesis and MMP-mediated aggrecan degradation) were analyzed using immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: Operated knees exhibited OA features at 8weeks post-surgery compared to sham-operated ones. In menisectomized TLR-1, -2, -4, and -6 deficient mice, cartilage lesions, synovial inflammation and cartilage metabolism were similar to that in operated WT mice. Accordingly, using the same approach, we found no significant protection in MyD88-deficient mice in terms of OA progression as compared to WT littermates. CONCLUSIONS: Deficiency of TLRs or their signalling molecule MyD88 did not impact on the severity of experimental OA. Our results demonstrate that MyD88-dependent TLRs are not involved in this murine OA model. Moreover, the dispensable role of MyD88, which is also an adaptor for IL-1 receptor signaling, suggests that IL-1 is not a key mediator in the development of OA. This latter hypothesis is strengthened by the lack of efficiency of IL-1β antagonist in the treatment of OA.

Role of islet microRNAs in diabetes: which model for which question?

MicroRNAs are important regulators of gene expression. The vast majority of the cells in our body rely on hundreds of these tiny non-coding RNA molecules to precisely adjust their protein repertoire and faithfully accomplish their tasks. Indeed, alterations in the microRNA profile can lead to cellular dysfunction that favours the appearance of several diseases. A specific set of microRNAs plays a crucial role in pancreatic beta cell differentiation and is essential for the fine-tuning of insulin secretion and for compensatory beta cell mass expansion in response to insulin resistance. Recently, several independent studies reported alterations in microRNA levels in the islets of animal models of diabetes and in islets isolated from diabetic patients. Surprisingly, many of the changes in microRNA expression observed in animal models of diabetes were not detected in the islets of diabetic patients and vice versa. These findings are unlikely to merely reflect species differences because microRNAs are highly conserved in mammals. These puzzling results are most probably explained by fundamental differences in the experimental approaches which selectively highlight the microRNAs directly contributing to diabetes development, the microRNAs predisposing individuals to the disease or the microRNAs displaying expression changes subsequent to the development of diabetes. In this review we will highlight the suitability of the different models for addressing each of these questions and propose future strategies that should allow us to obtain a better understanding of the contribution of microRNAs to the development of diabetes mellitus in humans.

The role of Bmi1 in CNS development and in retinal degeneration

SUMMARY : The present work addresses several aspects of cell cycle regulation, cell fate specification and cell death in the central nervous system (CNS), specifically the cortex and the retina. More precisely, we investigated the role of Bmi1, a polycomb family gene required for stem cell proliferation and self-renewal, in the development of the cerebral cortex, as well as in the genesis of the retina. These data, together with studies published during the last two decades concerning cell cycle re-activation in apoptotic neurons in the CNS, raised the question of a possible link between regulation of the cell cycle during development and during retinal degeneration. 1. The effects of Bmi1 loss in the cerebral cortex : Consistently with our and others' observations on failure of Bmi9-/- stem cells to proliferate and self-renew in vitro, the Bmi9-/- cerebral cortex presented slight defects in proliferation in stem/progenitor cells compartments in vivo. This was in accordance with the pattern of Bmi1 expression in the developing forebrain. The modest proliferation defects, compared to the drastic consequences of Bmi9 loss in vitro, suggest that cell-extrinsic mechanisms may partially compensate for Bmi1 deletion in vivo during cortical histogenesis. Nevertheless, we observed a decreased proliferating activity in neurogenic regions of the adult telencephalon, more precisely in the subventricular zone, showing that Bmi1 controls neural stem/progenitor proliferation during adulthood in vivo. Our data also highlight an increased production of astrocytes at birth, and a generalized gliosis in the adult Bmi9-/- brain. Importantly, glial progenitors and astrocytes retained the ability to proliferate in the absence of Bmi1. 2. The effects of Bmi1 loss in the retina : The pattern of expression of Bmi1 during development and in the adult retina suggests a role for Bmi1 in cell fate specification and differentiation rather than in proliferation. While the layering and the global structure of the retina appear normal in Bmi1 /adult mice, immunohistochemìcal analysis revealed defects in the three major classes of retinal interneurons, namely: horizontal, bipolar and amacrine cells. Electroretinogram recordings in Bmi9-/- mice are coherent with the defects observed at the histological level, with a reduced b-wave and low-profile oscillatory potentials. These results show that Bmi1 controls not only proliferation, but also cell type generation, as previously observed in the cerebellum. 3. Cell cycle events and related neuroprotective strategies in retinal degeneration : In several neurodegenerative disorders, neurons re-express cell cycle proteins such as cyclin dependent kinases (Cdks) prior to apoptosis. Here, we show for the first time that this is also the case during retinal degeneration. Rd1 mice carry a recessive defect (Pdeóbrd/rd) that causes retinal degeneration and serves as a model of retinitis pigmentosa. We found that photoreceptors express Cdk4 and Cdk2, and undergo DNA synthesis prior to cell death. To interfere with the reactivation of Cdk-related pathways, we deleted E2fs or Brni1, which normally allow cell cycle progression. While deleting E2f1 (downstream of Cdk4/6) in Rd1 mice provides only temporary protection, knocking out Bmi1 (upstream of Cdks) leads to an extensive neuroprotective effect, independent of p16ink4a or p19arf, two tumor suppressors regulated by Bmi1. Analysis of Cdks and the DNA repair-related protein Ligase IV showed that Bmi1 acts downstream of DNA repair events and upstream of Cdks in this neurodegenerative mechanism. Expression of Cdks during an acute model of retinal degeneration, light damage-induced photoreceptor death, points to a role for Bmi1 and cell cycle proteins in retinal degeneration. Considering the similarity with the cell cycle-related apoptotic pathway observed in other neurodegenerative diseases, Bmi1 is a possible general target to prevent or delay neuronal death. RESUME : Ce travail aborde plusieurs aspects de la régulation du cycle cellulaire, de la spécification du devenir des cellules et de la mort cellulaire dans le système nerveux centrale (SNC), plus particulièrement dans le cortex cérébral et dans la rétine. Nous nous sommes intéressés au gène Bmi1, appartenant à la famille polycomb et nécessaire à la prolifération et au renouvellement des cellules souches. Nous avons visé à disséquer son rôle dans le développement du cortex et de la rétine. Ces données, ainsi qu'une série de travaux publiés au cours des deux dernières décennies concernant la réactivation du cycle cellulaire dans les neurones en voie d'apoptose dans le SNC, nous ont ensuite poussé à chercher un lien entre la régulation du cycle cellulaire pendant le développement et au cours de la dégénérescence rétinienne. 1. Les effets de l'inactivation de Bmi1 dans le cortex cérébral : En accord avec l'incapacité des cellules souches neurales in vitro à proliférer et à se renouveler en absence de Bmi1, le cortex cérébral des souris Bmi1-/- présente de légers défauts de prolifération dans les compartiments contenant les cellules souches neurales. Ceci est en accord avec le profil d'expression de Bmi1 dans le télencéphale. Les conséquences de la délétion de Bmi1 sont toutefois nettement moins prononcées in vivo qu'in vitro ; cette différence suggère l'existence de mécanismes pouvant partiellement compenser l'absence de Bmi1 pendant la corticogenèse. Néanmoins, l'observation d'une réduction de la prolifération dans la zone sous-ventriculaire, la zone majeure de neurogenèse dans le télencéphale adulte, montre que Bmi1 contrôle la prolifération des cellules souche/progénitrices neurales chez la souris adulte. Nos résultats démontrent par ailleurs une augmentation de la production d'astrocytes à la naissance ainsi qu'une gliose généralisée à l'état adulte chez les souris Bmi1-/-. Les progéniteurs gliaux et les astrocytes conservent donc leur capacité à proliférer en absence de Bmi1. 2. Les effets de l'inactivation de Bmi1 dans la rétine : Le profil d'expression de Bmi1 pendant fe développement ainsi que dans la rétine adulte suggère un rôle de Bmi1 dans la spécification de certains types cellulaires et dans la différentiation plutôt que dans la prolifération. Alors que la structure et la lamination de la rétine semblent normales chez les souris Bmi1-/-, l'analyse par immunohistochimie amis en évidence des défauts au niveau des trois classes d'interneurones rétiniens (les cellules horizontales, bipolaires et amacrines). Les électrorétinogrammes des souris Bmi1-/- sont cohérents avec les défauts observés au niveau histologique et montrent une réduction de l'onde « b » et des potentiels oscillatoires. Ces résultats montrent que Bmi1 contrôle la génération de certaines sous-populations de neurones, comme démontré auparavant au niveau de cervelet. 3. Réactivation du cycle cellulaire et stratégies théraoeutiaues dans les dégénérescences rétiniennes : Dans plusieurs maladies neurodégénératives, les neurones ré-expriment des protéines du cycle cellulaire telles que les kinases cycline-dépendantes (Cdk) avant d'entrer en apoptose. Nous avons démontré que c'est aussi le cas dans les dégénérescences rétiniennes. Les souris Rd1 portent une mutation récessive (Pde6brd/rd) qui induit une dégénérescence de la rétine et sont utilisées comme modèle animal de rétinite pigmentaire. Nous avons observé que les photorécepteurs expriment Cdk4 et Cdk2, et entament une synthèse d'ADN avant de mourir par apoptose. Pour interférer avec la réactivation les mécanismes Cdk-dépendants, nous avons inactivé les gènes E2f et Bmi1, qui permettent normalement la progression du cycle cellulaire. Nous avons mis en évidence que la délétion de E2f1 (en aval de Cdk4/6) dans les souris Rd1 permet une protection transitoire des photorécepteurs. Toutefois, l'inactivation de Bmi1 (en amont des Cdk) est corrélée à une neuroprotection bien plus durable et ceci indépendamment de p16ink4a et p19arf, deux suppresseurs de tumeurs normalement régulés par Bmi1. L'analyse des Cdk et de la ligase IV (une protéine impliquée dans les mécanismes de réparation de l'ADN) a montré que Bmi1 agit en aval des événements de réparation de l'ADN et en amont des Cdk dans la cascade apoptotique dans les photorécepteurs des souris Rd1. Nous avons également observé la présence de Cdk dans un modèle aigu de dégénérescence rétinienne induit par une exposition des animaux à des niveaux toxiques de lumière. Nos résultats suggèrent donc un rôle général de Bmi1 et des protéines du cycle cellulaire dans les dégénérescences de la rétine. Si l'on considère la similarité avec les événements de réactivation du cycle cellulaire observés dans d'autres maladies neurodégénératives, Bmi1 pourrait être une cible thérapeutique générale pour prévenir la mort neuronale.

FRAX® International Task Force of the 2010 Joint International Society for Clinical Densitometry & International Osteoporosis Foundation Position Development Conference.

Osteoporosis is a serious worldwide epidemic. FRAX® is a web-based tool developed by the Sheffield WHO Collaborating Center team, that integrates clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD and calculates the 10 year fracture probability in order to help health care professionals identify patients who need treatment. However, only 31 countries have a FRAX® calculator. In the absence of a FRAX® model for a particular country, it has been suggested to use a surrogate country for which the epidemiology of osteoporosis most closely approximates the index country. More specific recommendations for clinicians in these countries are not available. In North America, concerns have also been raised regarding the assumptions used to construct the US ethnic specific FRAX® calculators with respect to the correction factors applied to derive fracture probabilities in Blacks, Asians and Hispanics in comparison to Whites. In addition, questions were raised about calculating fracture risk in other ethnic groups e.g., Native Americans and First Canadians. The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) in conjunction with the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) assembled an international panel of experts that ultimately developed joint Official Positions of the ISCD and IOF advising clinicians regarding FRAX® usage. As part of the process, the charge of the FRAX® International Task Force was to review and synthesize data regarding geographic and race/ethnic variability in hip fractures, non-hip osteoporotic fractures, and make recommendations about the use of FRAX® in ethnic groups and countries without a FRAX® calculator. This synthesis was presented to the expert panel and constitutes the data on which the subsequent Official Positions are predicated. A summary of the International Task Force composition and charge is presented here.

An adult thymic stromal-cell suspension model for in vitro positive selection.

Presented here is a cell-suspension model for positive selection using thymocytes from alphabeta-TCR (H-2Db-restricted) transgenic mice specific to the lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) on a nonselecting MHC background (H-2d or TAP-1 -/-), cocultured with freshly isolated adult thymus stromal cells of the selecting MHC type. The thymic stromal cells alone induced positive selection of functional CD4- CD8+ cells whose kinetics and efficiency were enhanced by nominal peptide. Fibroblasts expressing the selecting MHC alone did not induce positive selection; however, together with nonselecting stroma and nominal peptide, there was inefficient positive. These results suggest multiple signaling in positive selection with selection events able to occur on multiple-cell types. The ease with which this model can be manipulated should greatly facilitate the resolution of the mechanisms of positive selection in normal and pathological states.

Allostatic working memory processing in schizophrenia: Human and animal model coherence

The most evident symptoms of schizophrenia are severe impairment of cognitive functions like attention, abstract reasoning and working memory. The latter has been defined as the ability to maintain and manipulate on-line a limited amount of information. Whereas several studies show that working memory processes are impaired in schizophrenia, the specificity of this deficit is still unclear. Results obtained with a new paradigm, involving visuospatial, dynamic and static working memory processing, suggest that schizophrenic patients rely on a specific compensatory strategy. An animal model of schizophrenia with a transient deficit in glutathione during the development reveals similar substitutive processing, masking the impairment in working memory functions in specific test conditions only. Taken together, these results show coherence between working memory deficits in schizophrenic patients and in animal models. More generally, it is possible to consider that the pathological state may be interpreted as a reduced homeostatic reserve. However, this may be balanced in specific situations by efficient allostatic strategies. Thus, the pathological condition would remain latent in several situations, due to such allostatic regulations. However, to maintain a performance based on highly specific strategies requires in turn specific conditions, limitating adaptative resources in humans and in animals. In summary, we suggest that the psychological and physical load to maintain this rigid allostatic state is very high in patients and animal subjects.

Clinical Learning Environment and Supervision. Development and Validation of the CLES Evaluation Scale

The purpose of the study is: (1) to describe how nursing students' experienced their clinical learning environment and the supervision given by staff nurses working in hospital settings; and (2) to develop and test an evaluation scale of Clinical Learning Environment and Supervision (CLES). The study has been carried out in different phases. The pilot study (n=163) explored the association between the characteristics of a ward and its evaluation as a learning environment by students. The second version of research instrument (which was developed by the results of this pilot study) were tested by an expert panel (n=9 nurse teachers) and test-retest group formed by student nurses (n=38). After this evaluative phase, the CLES was formed as the basic research instrument for this study and it was tested with the Finnish main sample (n=416). In this phase, a concurrent validity instrument (Dunn & Burnett 1995) was used to confirm the validation process of CLES. The international comparative study was made by comparing the Finnish main sample with a British sample (n=142). The international comparative study was necessary for two reasons. In the instrument developing process, there is a need to test the new instrument in some other nursing culture. Other reason for comparative international study is the reflecting the impact of open employment markets in the European Union (EU) on the need to evaluate and to integrate EU health care educational systems. The results showed that the individualised supervision system is the most used supervision model and the supervisory relationship with personal mentor is the most meaningful single element of supervision evaluated by nursing students. The ward atmosphere and the management style of ward manager are the most important environmental factors of the clinical ward. The study integrates two theoretical elements - learning environment and supervision - in developing a preliminary theoretical model. The comparative international study showed that, Finnish students were more satisfied and evaluated their clinical placements and supervision with higher scores than students in the United Kingdom (UK). The difference between groups was statistical highly significant (p= 0.000). In the UK, clinical placements were longer but students met their nurse teachers less frequently than students in Finland. Arrangements for supervision were similar. This research process has produced the evaluation scale (CLES), which can be used in research and quality assessments of clinical learning environment and supervision in Finland and in the UK. CLES consists of 27 items and it is sub-divided into five sub-dimensions. Cronbach's alpha coefficient varied from high 0.94 to marginal 0.73. CLES is a compact evaluation scale and user-friendliness makes it suitable for continuing evaluation.

The influence of Bone Morphogenic Protein-2 on the consolidation phase in a distraction osteogenesis model.

We asked whether locally applied recombinant-Bone Morphogenic Protein-2 (rh-BMP-2) with an absorbable Type I collagen sponge (ACS) carrier could enhance the consolidation phase in a callotasis model. We performed unilateral transverse osteotomy of the tibia in 21 immature male rabbits. After a latency period of 7 days, a 3-weeks distraction was begun at a rate of 0.5mm/12h. At the end of the distraction period (Day 28) animals were randomly divided into three groups and underwent a second surgical procedure: 6 rabbits in Group I (Control group; the callus was exposed and nothing was added), 6 rabbits in Group II (ACS group; receiving the absorbable collagen sponge soaked with saline) and 9 rabbits in Group III (rh-BMP-2/ACS group; receiving the ACS soaked with 100μg/kg of rh-BMP-2, Inductos(®), Medtronic). Starting at Day 28 we assessed quantitative and qualitative radiographic parameters as well as densitometric parameters every two weeks (Days 28, 42, 56, 70 and 84). Animals were sacrificed after 8 weeks of consolidation (Day 84). Qualitative radiographic evaluation revealed hypertrophic calluses in the Group III animals. The rh-BMP-2/ACS also influenced the development of the cortex of the calluses as shown by the modified radiographic patterns in Group III when compared to Groups I and II. Densitometric analysis revealed the bone mineral content (BMC) was significantly higher in the rh-BMP-2/ACS treated animals (Group III).

A developmental in vivo 1H NMR study in mice with genetic redox dysregulation: an animal model with relevance to schizophrenia

Glutathione (GSH), a major redox regulator and anti-oxidant, is decreased in cerebrospinal fluid and prefrontal cortex of schizophrenia patients. The gene of the key GSH-synthesizing enzyme, glutamate-cysteine ligase, modifier (GCLM) subunit, is associated with schizophrenia, suggesting that the deficit in the GSH system is of genetic origin. Using the GCLM knock-out (KO) mouse model with 60% decreased brain GSH levels, we have shown that redox dysregulation results in abnormal brain morphology and function. Current theory holds that schizophrenia is a developmental disease involving progressive anatomical and functional brain pathology. Here, we used GCLM KO mice to investigate the impact of a genetically dysregulated redox system on the neurochemical profile of the developing brain. The anterior and posterior cortical neurochemical profile of male and female GCLM KO, heterozygous and wildtype mice was determined by localised in vivo 1H NMR spectroscopy at 14.1 T (Varian/Magnex spectrometer) on post-natal days 10, 20, 30, 60 and 90. We show, for the first time, (1) that high quality 1H NMR spectra can be acquired from early developing mouse brains and (2) that recurrent anaesthesia by itself when administered at the same developmental days has no adverse effects on brain metabolites nor on adult behaviour. (3) Most importantly, our results reveal genotype and age specific changes for a number of metabolites revealing insight into normal brain development and about the impact of genetic GSH dysregulation.

Prime Property Institutions for a Subprime Era: Exploring Innovative Models of Residential Development and Finance

This paper breaks new ground toward contractual and institutional innovation in models of homeownership, equity building, and mortgage enforcement. Inspired by recent developments in the affordable housing sector and in other types of public financing schemes, this paper suggests extending institutional and financial strategies such as timeand place-based division of property rights, conditional subsidies, and credit mediation to alleviate the systemic risks of mortgage foreclosure. Alongside a for-profit shared equity scheme that would be led by local governments, we also outline a private market shared equity model, one of bootstrapping home buying with purchase options.

Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.