Long-term effect of volcanic forcing on ocean heat content

Explosive volcanic eruptions cause episodic negative radiative forcing of the climate system. Using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) subjected to historical forcing since the late nineteenth century, previous authors have shown that each large volcanic eruption is associated with a sudden drop in ocean heat content and sea-level from which the subsequent recovery is slow. Here we show that this effect may be an artefact of experimental design, caused by the AOGCMs not having been spun up to a steady state with volcanic forcing before the historical integrations begin. Because volcanic forcing has a long-term negative average, a cooling tendency is thus imposed on the ocean in the historical simulation. We recommend that an extra experiment be carried out in parallel to the historical simulation, with constant time-mean historical volcanic forcing, in order to correct for this effect and avoid misinterpretation of ocean heat content changes

Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change

In response to increasing atmospheric con- centrations of greenhouse gases, the rate of time- dependent climate change is determined jointly by the strength of climate feedbacks and the e�ciency of pro- cesses which remove heat from the surface into the deep ocean. This work examines the vertical heat transport processes in the ocean of the HADCM2 atmosphere± ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) in experi- ments with CO2 held constant (control) and increasing at 1% per year (anomaly). The control experiment shows that global average heat exchanges between the upper and lower ocean are dominated by the Southern Ocean, where heat is pumped downwards by the wind- driven circulation and di�uses upwards along sloping isopycnals. This is the reverse of the low-latitude balance used in upwelling±di�usion ocean models, the global average upward di�usive transport being against the temperature gradient. In the anomaly experiment, weakened convection at high latitudes leads to reduced diffusive and convective heat loss from the deep ocean, and hence to net heat uptake, since the advective heat input is less a�ected. Reduction of deep water produc- tion at high latitudes results in reduced upwelling of cold water at low latitudes, giving a further contribution to net heat uptake. On the global average, high-latitude processes thus have a controlling in¯uence. The impor- tant role of di�usion highlights the need to ensure that the schemes employed in AOGCMs give an accurate representation of the relevant sub-grid-scale processes.

On the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport to climate change in coupled climate models

The CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) models show a consistent intensification and poleward shift of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean during the 21st century. However, the responses of the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents (ACC) show great diversity in these models, with many even showing reductions in transport. To obtain some understanding of diverse responses in the ACC transport, we investigate both external atmospheric and internal oceanic processes that control the ACC transport responses in these models. While the strengthened westerlies act to increase the tilt of isopycnal surfaces and hence the ACC transport through Ekman pumping effects, the associated changes in buoyancy forcing generally tend to reduce the surface meridional density gradient. The steepening of isopycnal surfaces induced by increased wind forcing leads to enhanced (parameterized) eddy-induced transports that act to reduce the isopycnal slopes. There is also considerable narrowing of the ACC that tends to reduce the ACC transport, caused mainly by the poleward shifts of the subtropical gyres and to a lesser extent by the equatorward expansions of the subpolar gyres in some models. If the combined effect of these retarding processes is larger than that of enhanced Ekman pumping, the ACC transport will be reduced. In addition, the effect of Ekman pumping on the ACC is reduced in weakly stratified models. These findings give insight into the reliability of IPCC-class model predictions of the Southern Ocean circulation, and into the observed decadal-scale steady ACC transport.

Real option pricing in mixed-use development projects

The application of real options theory to commercial real estate has developed rapidly during the last 15 Years. In particular, several pricing models have been applied to value real options embedded in development projects. In this study we use a case study of a mixed use development scheme and identify the major implied and explicit real options available to the developer. We offer the perspective of a real market application by exploring different binomial models and the associated methods of estimating the crucial parameter of volatility. We include simple binomial lattices, quadranomial lattices and demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of inputs and method.

The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models.

The impact of real estate on the terminal wealth of the UK mixed-asset portfolio

The argument for the inclusion of real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio has concentrated on examining its effect in reducing the portfolio risk - the time series standard deviation (TSSD), mainly using ex-post time series data. However, the past as such is not really relevant to the long-term institutional investors, such as the insurance companies and pension funds, who are more concerned the terminal wealth (TW) of their investments and the variability of this wealth, the terminal wealth standard deviation (TWSD), since it is from the TW of their investment portfolio that policyholders and pensioners will derive their benefits. These kinds of investors with particular holding period requirements will be less concerned about the within period volatility of their portfolios and more by the possibility that their portfolio returns will fail to finance their liabilities. This variability in TW will be closely linked to the risk of shortfall in the quantity of assets needed to match the institution’s liabilities. The question remains therefore can real estate enhance the TW of the mixed-asset portfolio and/or reduce the variability of the TW. This paper uses annual data from the United Kingdom (UK) for the period 1972-2001 to test whether real estate is an asset class that not only reduces ex-post portfolio risk but also enhances portfolio TW and/or reduces the variability of TW.

The impact of real estate on the mixed-asset portfolio in periods of financial stress

The case for holding real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio is typically made on its stabilising effect as a result of its diversification benefits. However, portfolio diversification often fails when it is most needed, i.e. during periods of financial stress. In these periods, the variability of returns for most asset classes increases thus reducing the stabilising effect of a diversified portfolio. This paper applies the approach of Chow et al (1999) to the US domestic mixed-asset portfolio to establish whether real estate, represented by REITs, is especially useful in times of financial stress. To this end monthly returns data on five assets classes: large cap stocks, small cap stocks, long dated government bonds, cash (T-Bills) and real estate (REITs) are evaluated over the period January 1972 to December 2001. The results indicate that the inclusion of REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio can lead to increases or decreases in returns depending on the asset class replaced and whether the period is one of calm or stress. However, the inclusion of REITs invariably leads to reductions in portfolio risk that are greater than any loss in return, especially in periods of financial stress. In other words, REITs acts as a stabilising force on the mixed-asset portfolio when it is most needed, i.e. in periods of financial stress.

Effect of phonetic complexity on word reading and repetition in deep dyslexia

This investigation moves beyond the traditional studies of word reading to identify how the production complexity of words affects reading accuracy in an individual with deep dyslexia (JO). We examined JO’s ability to read words aloud while manipulating both the production complexity of the words and the semantic context. The classification of words as either phonetically simple or complex was based on the Index of Phonetic Complexity. The semantic context was varied using a semantic blocking paradigm (i.e., semantically blocked and unblocked conditions). In the semantically blocked condition words were grouped by semantic categories (e.g., table, sit, seat, couch,), whereas in the unblocked condition the same words were presented in a random order. JO’s performance on reading aloud was also compared to her performance on a repetition task using the same items. Results revealed a strong interaction between word complexity and semantic blocking for reading aloud but not for repetition. JO produced the greatest number of errors for phonetically complex words in semantically blocked condition. This interaction suggests that semantic processes are constrained by output production processes which are exaggerated when derived from visual rather than auditory targets. This complex relationship between orthographic, semantic, and phonetic processes highlights the need for word recognition models to explicitly account for production processes.

Bottom-up, not top-down, modulation of imitation by human and robotic models

Visual observation of human actions provokes more motor activation than observation of robotic actions. We investigated the extent to which this visuomotor priming effect is mediated by bottom-up or top-down processing. The bottom-up hypothesis suggests that robotic movements are less effective in activating the ‘mirror system’ via pathways from visual areas via the superior temporal sulcus to parietal and premotor cortices. The top-down hypothesis postulates that beliefs about the animacy of a movement stimulus modulate mirror system activity via descending pathways from areas such as the temporal pole and prefrontal cortex. In an automatic imitation task, subjects performed a prespecified movement (e.g. hand opening) on presentation of a human or robotic hand making a compatible (opening) or incompatible (closing) movement. The speed of responding on compatible trials, compared with incompatible trials, indexed visuomotor priming. In the first experiment, robotic stimuli were constructed by adding a metal and wire ‘wrist’ to a human hand. Questionnaire data indicated that subjects believed these movements to be less animate than those of the human stimuli but the visuomotor priming effects of the human and robotic stimuli did not differ. In the second experiment, when the robotic stimuli were more angular and symmetrical than the human stimuli, human movements elicited more visuomotor priming than the robotic movements. However, the subjects’ beliefs about the animacy of the stimuli did not affect their performance. These results suggest that bottom-up processing is primarily responsible for the visuomotor priming advantage of human stimuli.

Effect of linseed oil and fish oil alone or as an equal mixture of ruminal fatty acid metabolism in growing steers fed maize silage-based diets

Based on the potential benefits to human health there is interest in increasing 18:3n-3, 20:5n-3, 22:6n-6, and cis-9,trans-11 conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) in ruminant foods. Four Aberdeen Angus steers (406 ± 8.2 kg BW) fitted with rumen and duodenal cannulae were used in a 4 x 4 Latin square experiment with 21 d periods to examine the potential of fish oil (FO) and linseed oil (LO) in the diet to increase ruminal outflow of trans-11 18:1 and total n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in growing cattle. Treatments consisted of a control diet (60:40; forage:concentrate ratio, on a DM basis, respectively) based on maize silage, or the same basal ration containing 30 g/kg DM of FO, LO or a mixture (1:1, w/w) of FO and LO (LFO). Diets were offered as total mixed rations and fed at a rate of 85 g DM/kg BW0.75/d. Oils had no effect (P = 0.52) on DM intake. Linseed oil had no effect (P > 0.05) on ruminal pH or VFA concentrations, while FO shifted rumen fermentation towards propionate at the expense of acetate. Compared with the control, LO increased (P < 0.05) 18:0, cis 18:1 (Δ9, 12-15), trans 18:1 (Δ4-9, 11-16), trans 18:2, geometric isomers of ∆9,11, ∆11,13, and ∆13,15 CLA, trans-8,cis-10 CLA, trans-10,trans-12 CLA, trans-12,trans-14 CLA, and 18:3n-3 flow at the duodenum. Inclusion of FO in the diet resulted in higher (P < 0.05) flows of cis-9 16:1, trans 16:1 (Δ6-13), cis 18:1 (Δ9, 11, and 13), trans 18:1 (Δ6-15), trans 18:2, 20:5n-3, 22:5n-3, and 22:6n-3, and lowered (P < 0.001) 18:0 at the duodenum relative to the control. For most fatty acids at the duodenum responses to LFO were intermediate of FO and LO. However, LFO resulted in higher (P = 0.04) flows of total trans 18:1 than LO and increased (P < 0.01) trans-6 16:1 and trans-12 18:1 at the duodenum compared with FO or LO. Biohydrogenation of cis-9 18:1 and 18:2n-6 in the rumen was independent of treatment, but both FO and LO increased (P < 0.001) the extent of 18:3n-3 biohydrogenation compared with the control. Ruminal 18:3n-3 biohydrogenation was higher (P < 0.001) for LO and LFO than FO, while biohydrogenation of 20:5n-3 and 22:6n-3 in the rumen was marginally lower (P = 0.05) for LFO than FO. In conclusion, LO and FO at 30 g/kg DM altered the biohydrogenation of unsaturated fatty acids in the rumen causing an increase in the flow of specific intermediates at the duodenum, but the potential of these oils fed alone or as a mixture to increase n-3 PUFA at the duodenum in cattle appears limited.

Energy and protein interactions and their effect on nitrogen excretion in dairy cows

The principal driver of nitrogen (N) losses from the body including excretion and secretion in milk is N intake. However, other covariates may also play a role in modifying the partitioning of N. This study tests the hypothesis that N partitioning in dairy cows is affected by energy and protein interactions. A database containing 470 dairy cow observations was collated from calorimetry experiments. The data include N and energy parameters of the diet and N utilization by the animal. Univariate and multivariate meta-analyses that considered both within and between study effects were conducted to generate prediction equations based on N intake alone or with an energy component. The univariate models showed that there was a strong positive linear relationships between N intake and N excretion in faeces, urine and milk. The slopes were 0.28 faeces N, 0.38 urine N and 0.20 milk N. Multivariate model analysis did not improve the fit. Metabolizable energy intake had a significant positive effect on the amount of milk N in proportion to faeces and urine N, which is also supported by other studies. Another measure of energy considered as a covariate to N intake was diet quality or metabolizability (the concentration of metabolizable energy relative to gross energy of the diet). Diet quality also had a positive linear relationship with the proportion of milk N relative to N excreted in faeces and urine. Metabolizability had the largest effect on faeces N due to lower protein digestibility of low quality diets. Urine N was also affected by diet quality and the magnitude of the effect was higher than for milk N. This research shows that including a measure of diet quality as a covariate with N intake in a model of N execration can enhance our understanding of the effects of diet composition on N losses from dairy cows. The new prediction equations developed in this study could be used to monitor N losses from dairy systems.

The effect of asymmetries on optimal hedge ratios

There is widespread evidence that the volatility of stock returns displays an asymmetric response to good and bad news. This article considers the impact of asymmetry on time-varying hedges for financial futures. An asymmetric model that allows forecasts of cash and futures return volatility to respond differently to positive and negative return innovations gives superior in-sample hedging performance. However, the simpler symmetric model is not inferior in a hold-out sample. A method for evaluating the models in a modern risk-management framework is presented, highlighting the importance of allowing optimal hedge ratios to be both time-varying and asymmetric.

Cloud statistics and cloud radiative effect for a low-mountain site

In 2007, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) was operated for a nine-month period in the Murg Valley, Black Forest, Germany, in support of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). The synergy of AMF and COPS partner instrumentation was exploited to derive a set of high-quality thermodynamic and cloud property profiles with 30 s resolution. In total, clouds were present 72% of the time, with multi-layer mixed phase (28.4%) and single-layer water clouds (11.3%) occurring most frequently. A comparison with the Cloudnet sites Chilbolton and Lindenberg for the same time period revealed that the Murg Valley exhibits lower liquid water paths (LWPs; median = 37.5 g m−2) compared to the two sites located in flat terrain. In order to evaluate the derived thermodynamic and cloud property profiles, a radiative closure study was performed with independent surface radiation measurements. In clear sky, average differences between calculated and observed surface fluxes are less than 2% and 4% for the short wave and long wave part, respectively. In cloudy situations, differences between simulated and observed fluxes, particularly in the short wave part, are much larger, but most of these can be related to broken cloud situations. The daytime cloud radiative effect (CRE), i.e. the difference of cloudy and clear-sky net fluxes, has been analysed for the whole nine-month period. For overcast, single-layer water clouds, sensitivity studies revealed that the CRE uncertainty is likewise determined by uncertainties in liquid water content and effective radius. For low LWP clouds, CRE uncertainty is dominated by LWP uncertainty; therefore refined retrievals, such as using infrared and/or higher microwave frequencies, are needed.

Evaluation of ice cloud representation in the ECMWF and UK Met Office models using CloudSat and CALIPSO data

Ice cloud representation in general circulation models remains a challenging task, due to the lack of accurate observations and the complexity of microphysical processes. In this article, we evaluate the ice water content (IWC) and ice cloud fraction statistical distributions from the numerical weather prediction models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office, exploiting the synergy between the CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar. Using the last three weeks of July 2006, we analyse the global ice cloud occurrence as a function of temperature and latitude and show that the models capture the main geographical and temperature-dependent distributions, but overestimate the ice cloud occurrence in the Tropics in the temperature range from −60 °C to −20 °C and in the Antarctic for temperatures higher than −20 °C, but underestimate ice cloud occurrence at very low temperatures. A global statistical comparison of the occurrence of grid-box mean IWC at different temperatures shows that both the mean and range of IWC increases with increasing temperature. Globally, the models capture most of the IWC variability in the temperature range between −60 °C and −5 °C, and also reproduce the observed latitudinal dependencies in the IWC distribution due to different meteorological regimes. Two versions of the ECMWF model are assessed. The recent operational version with a diagnostic representation of precipitating snow and mixed-phase ice cloud fails to represent the IWC distribution in the −20 °C to 0 °C range, but a new version with prognostic variables for liquid water, ice and snow is much closer to the observed distribution. The comparison of models and observations provides a much-needed analysis of the vertical distribution of IWC across the globe, highlighting the ability of the models to reproduce much of the observed variability as well as the deficiencies where further improvements are required.

Effect of water-soluble polymers, polyethylene glycol and poly(vinylpyrrolidone),on the gelation of aqueous micellar solutions of Pluronic copolymer F127

The micellization of F127 (E98P67E98) in dilute aqueous solutions of polyethylene glycol (PEG6000 and PEG35000) and poly(vinylpyrrolidone) (PVP K30 and PVP K90) is studied. The average hydrodynamic radius (rh,app) obtained from the dynamic light scattering technique increased with increase in PEG concentration but decreased on addition of PVP, results which are consistent with interaction of the micelles with PEG and the formation of micelles clusters, but no such interaction occurs with PVP. Tube inversion was used to determine the onset of gelation. The critical concentration of F127 for gelation increased on addition of PEG and of PVP K30 but decreased on addition of PVP K90. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) was used to show that the 30 wt% F127 gel structure (fcc) was independent of polymer type and concentration, as was the d-spacing and so the micelle hard-sphere radius. The maximum elastic modulus (G0 max) of 30 wt% F127 decreased from its value for water alone as PEG was added, but was little changed by adding PVP. These results are consistent with the packed-micelles in the 30 wt% F127 gel being effectively isolated from the polymer solution on the microscale while, especially for the PEG, being mixed on the macroscale.