The New Voter in Western Europe: France and Beyond

This book presents the main results of an electoral panel study which is both unique and innovative not only in French political research but also among Western European electoral studies. The survey was conducted among a sample of 1,846 French voters interviewed on four separate occasions (2007 Presidential and Legislative elections). Electoral trajectories can thus be observed revealing the main trends in electoral behaviour and voting patterns across the electorate. The analysis of such trajectories and patterns mobilizes not only the usual explanatory factors (demographics, political leanings and identifications) but also another set of political variables (issues, the campaign and the media, the candidates' image, how electoral decisions are made, hesitation in voting intentions).This study also provides interesting findings on electoral volatility, including abstention. (Résumé éditeur)

Hypothesis test for changes in variance using a statistic based in P-values in a time series of normal independent observations.

The present work proposes a Hypothesis Test to detect a shift in the variance of a series of independent normal observations using a statistic based on the p-values of the F distribution. Since the probability distribution function of this statistic is intractable, critical values were we estimated numerically through extensive simulation. A regression approach was used to simplify the quantile evaluation and extrapolation. The power of the test was simulated using Monte Carlo simulation, and the results were compared with the Chen test (1997) to prove its efficiency. Time series analysts might find the test useful to address homoscedasticity studies were at most one change might be involved.

Trade Shocks and Local Labor Markets' Linkages: Theory and Evidence

In the past few years, there has been a concern among economists and policy makers that increased openness to international trade affects some regions in a country more than others. Recent research has found that local labor markets more exposed to import competition through their initial employment composition experience worse outcomes in several dimensions such as, employment, wages, and poverty. Although there is evidence that regions within a country exhibit variation in the intensity with which they trade with each other and with other countries, trade linkages have been ignored in empirical analyses of the regional effects of trade, which focus on differences in employment composition. In this dissertation, I investigate how local labor markets' trade linkages shape the response of wages to international trade shocks. In the second chapter, I lay out a standard multi-sector general equilibrium model of trade, where domestic regions trade with each other and with the rest of the world. Using this benchmark, I decompose a region's wage change resulting from a national import cost shock into a direct effect on prices, holding other endogenous variables constant, and a series of general equilibrium effects. I argue the direct effect provides a natural measure of exposure to import competition within the model since it summarizes the effect of the shock on a region's wage as a function of initial conditions given by its trade linkages. I call my proposed measure linkage exposure while I refer to the measures used in previous studies as employment exposure. My theoretical analysis also shows that the assumptions previous studies make on trade linkages are not consistent with the standard trade model. In the third chapter, I calibrate the model to the Brazilian economy in 1991--at the beginning of a period of trade liberalization--to perform a series of experiments. In each of them, I reduce the Brazilian import cost by 1 percent in a single sector and I calculate how much of the cross-regional variation in counterfactual wage changes is explained by exposure measures. Over this set of experiments, employment exposure explains, for the median sector, 2 percent of the variation in counterfactual wage changes while linkage exposure explains 44 percent. In addition, I propose an estimation strategy that incorporates trade linkages in the analysis of the effects of trade on observed wages. In the model, changes in wages are completely determined by changes in market access, an endogenous variable that summarizes the real demand faced by a region. I show that a linkage measure of exposure is a valid instrument for changes in market access within Brazil. By using observed wage changes in Brazil between 1991-2000, my estimates imply that a region at the 25th percentile of the change in domestic market access induced by trade liberalization, experiences a 0.6 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. The estimates from a regression of wages changes on exposure imply that a region at the 25th percentile of exposure experiences a 3 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. I conclude that estimates based on exposure overstate the negative impact of trade liberalization on wages in Brazil. In the fourth chapter, I extend the standard model to allow for two types of workers according to their education levels: skilled and unskilled. I show that there is substantial variation across Brazilian regions in the skill premium. I use the exogenous variation provided by tariff changes to estimate the impact of market access on the skill premium. I find that decreased domestic market access resulting from trade liberalization resulted in a higher skill premium. I propose a mechanism to explain this result: that the manufacturing sector is relatively more intensive in unskilled labor and I show empirical evidence that supports this hypothesis.

Essays in Personal Transportation Demand and Consumer Finance

This dissertation is composed of three essays covering two areas of interest. The first topic is personal transportation demand with a focus on price and fuel efficiency elasticities of mileage demand, challenging assumptions common in the rebound effect literature. The second topic is consumer finance with a focus on small loans. The first chapter creates separate variables for fuel prices during periods of increasing and decreasing prices as well as an observed fuel economy measure to empirically test the equivalence of these elasticities. Using a panel from Germany from 1997 to 2009 I find a fuel economy elasticity of mileage of 53.3%, which is significantly different from the gas price elasticity of mileage during periods of decreasing gas prices, 4.8%. I reject the null hypothesis or price symmetry, with the elasticity of mileage during period of increasing gas prices ranging from 26.2% and 28.9%. The second chapter explores the potential for the rebound effect to vary with income. Panel data from U.S. households from 1997 to 2003 is used to estimate the rebound effect in a median regression. The estimated rebound effect independent of income ranges from 17.8% to 23.6%. An interaction of income and fuel economy is negative and significant, indicating that the rebound effect may be much higher for low income individuals and decreases with income; the rebound effect for low income households ranged from 80.3% to 105.0%, indicating that such households may increase gasoline consumption given an improvement in fuel economy. The final chapter documents the costs of credit instruments found in major mail order catalogs throughout the 20th century. This study constructs a new dataset and finds that the cost of credit increased and became stickier as mail order retailers switched from an installment-style closed-end loan to a revolving-style credit card. This study argues that revolving credit's ability to decrease salience of credit costs in the price of goods is the best explanation for rate stickiness in the mail order industry as well as for the preference of revolving credit among retailers.

Search for Higgs Boson Production Beyond the Standard Model Using the Razor Kinematic Variables in pp Collisions at √s=8 TeV and Optimization of Higgs Boson Identification Using a Quantum Annealer

In the first part of this thesis we search for beyond the Standard Model physics through the search for anomalous production of the Higgs boson using the razor kinematic variables. We search for anomalous Higgs boson production using proton-proton collisions at center of mass energy √s=8 TeV collected by the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at the Large Hadron Collider corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.8 fb^-1.

In the second part we present a novel method for using a quantum annealer to train a classifier to recognize events containing a Higgs boson decaying to two photons. We train that classifier using simulated proton-proton collisions at √s=8 TeV producing either a Standard Model Higgs boson decaying to two photons or a non-resonant Standard Model process that produces a two photon final state.

The production mechanisms of the Higgs boson are precisely predicted by the Standard Model based on its association with the mechanism of electroweak symmetry breaking. We measure the yield of Higgs bosons decaying to two photons in kinematic regions predicted to have very little contribution from a Standard Model Higgs boson and search for an excess of events, which would be evidence of either non-standard production or non-standard properties of the Higgs boson. We divide the events into disjoint categories based on kinematic properties and the presence of additional b-quarks produced in the collisions. In each of these disjoint categories, we use the razor kinematic variables to characterize events with topological configurations incompatible with typical configurations found from standard model production of the Higgs boson.

We observe an excess of events with di-photon invariant mass compatible with the Higgs boson mass and localized in a small region of the razor plane. We observe 5 events with a predicted background of 0.54 ± 0.28, which observation has a p-value of 10^-3 and a local significance of 3.35σ. This background prediction comes from 0.48 predicted non-resonant background events and 0.07 predicted SM higgs boson events. We proceed to investigate the properties of this excess, finding that it provides a very compelling peak in the di-photon invariant mass distribution and is physically separated in the razor plane from predicted background. Using another method of measuring the background and significance of the excess, we find a 2.5σ deviation from the Standard Model hypothesis over a broader range of the razor plane.

In the second part of the thesis we transform the problem of training a classifier to distinguish events with a Higgs boson decaying to two photons from events with other sources of photon pairs into the Hamiltonian of a spin system, the ground state of which is the best classifier. We then use a quantum annealer to find the ground state of this Hamiltonian and train the classifier. We find that we are able to do this successfully in less than 400 annealing runs for a problem of median difficulty at the largest problem size considered. The networks trained in this manner exhibit good classification performance, competitive with the more complicated machine learning techniques, and are highly resistant to overtraining. We also find that the nature of the training gives access to additional solutions that can be used to improve the classification performance by up to 1.2% in some regions.

Testing the random walk hypothesis with variance ratio statistics

Mestrado em Finanças

Horizontal fiscal equity: a theoretical contribution with an application to the portuguese municipalities.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Enriching understanding of young adult voter decision-making in the Australian compulsory voting context

This thesis has provided insight into considering how the consumer behaviour theoretical concept of usage impacts on lower-involvement young adult voter decision-making within the Australian compulsory voting context. This differentiated replication of previous research extends the range of results under which decision-making factors hold in voter behaviour.

Neuromuscular deficits after peripheral joint injury: a neurophysiological hypothesis

In addition to biomechanical disturbances, peripheral joint injuries (PJIs) can also result in chronic neuromuscular alterations due in part to loss of mechanoreceptor-mediated afferent feedback. An emerging perspective is that PJI should be viewed as a neurophysiological dysfunction, not simply a local injury. Neurophysiological and neuroimaging studies have provided some evidence for central nervous system (CNS) reorganization at both the cortical and spinal levels after PJI. The novel hypothesis proposed is that CNS reorganization is the underlying mechanism for persisting neuromuscular deficits after injury, particularly muscle weakness. There is a lack of direct evidence to support this hypothesis, but future studies utilizing force-matching tasks with superimposed transcranial magnetic stimulation may be help clarify this notion.

Progressive computed tomography (CT) appearances preceding malignant spinal cord compression (MSCC) in men with castration-resistant prostate cancer

AIM: To test the hypothesis that computed tomography (CT)-based signs might precede symptomatic malignant spinal cord compression (MSCC) in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A database was used to identify suitable mCRPC patients. Staging CT images were retrospectively reviewed for signs preceding MSCC. Signs of malignant paravertebral fat infiltration and epidural soft-tissue disease were defined and assessed on serial CT in 34 patients with MSCC and 58 control patients. The presence and evolution of the features were summarized using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: In MSCC patients, CT performed a median of 28 days prior to the diagnostic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated significant epidural soft tissue in 28 (80%) patients. The median time to MSCC from a combination of overt malignant paravertebral and epidural disease was 2.7 (0-14.6) months. Conversely, these signs were uncommon in the control cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Significant malignant paravertebral and/or epidural disease at CT precede MSCC in up to 80% of mCRPC patients and should prompt closer patient follow-up and consideration of early MRI evaluation. These CT-based features require further prospective validation.

Can Peto's paradox be used as the null hypothesis to identify the role of evolution in natural resistance to cancer? A critical review

BACKGROUND: Carcinogenesis affects not only humans but almost all metazoan species. Understanding the rules driving the occurrence of cancers in the wild is currently expected to provide crucial insights into identifying how some species may have evolved efficient cancer resistance mechanisms. Recently the absence of correlation across species between cancer prevalence and body size (coined as Peto's paradox) has attracted a lot of attention. Indeed, the disparity between this null hypothesis, where every cell is assumed to have an identical probability to undergo malignant transformation, and empirical observations is particularly important to understand, due to the fact that it could facilitate the identification of animal species that are more resistant to carcinogenesis than expected. Moreover it would open up ways to identify the selective pressures that may be involved in cancer resistance. However, Peto's paradox relies on several questionable assumptions, complicating the interpretation of the divergence between expected and observed cancer incidences. DISCUSSIONS: Here we review and challenge the different hypotheses on which this paradox relies on with the aim of identifying how this null hypothesis could be better estimated in order to provide a standard protocol to study the deviation between theoretical/theoretically predicted and observed cancer incidence. We show that due to the disproportion and restricted nature of available data on animal cancers, applying Peto's hypotheses at species level could result in erroneous conclusions, and actually assume the existence of a paradox. Instead of using species level comparisons, we propose an organ level approach to be a more accurate test of Peto's assumptions. SUMMARY: The accuracy of Peto's paradox assumptions are rarely valid and/or quantifiable, suggesting the need to reconsider the use of Peto's paradox as a null hypothesis in identifying the influence of natural selection on cancer resistance mechanisms.

A randomized controlled trial of a nurse-led supportive care package (SurvivorCare) for survivors of colorectal cancer

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) and its treatments can cause distressing sequelae. We conducted a multicenter randomized controlled trial aiming to improve psychological distress, supportive care needs (SCNs), and quality of life (QOL) of patients with CRC. The intervention, called SurvivorCare (SC), comprised educational materials, needs assessment, survivorship care plan, end-of-treatment session, and three follow-up telephone calls.

METHODS: At the end of treatment for stage I-III CRC, eligible patients were randomized 1:1 to usual care (UC) or to UC plus SC. Distress (Brief Symptom Inventory 18), SCNs (Cancer Survivors' Unmet Needs measure), and QOL (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer [EORTC] QOL questionnaires C30 and EORTC CRC module CR29) were assessed at baseline and at 2 and 6 months (follow-up 1 [FU1] and FU2, respectively). The primary hypothesis was that SC would have a beneficial effect on distress at FU1. The secondary hypotheses were that SC would have a beneficial effect on (a) SCN and QOL at FU1 and on (b) distress, SCNs, and QOL at FU2. A total of 15 items assessed experience of care.

RESULTS: Of 221 patients randomly assigned, 4 were ineligible for the study and 1 was lost to FU, leaving 110 in the UC group and 106 in the SC group. Patients' characteristics included the following: median age, 64 years; men, 52%; colon cancer, 56%; rectal cancer, 35%; overlapping sites of disease, 10%; stage I disease, 7%; stage II, 22%; stage III, 71%. Baseline distress and QOL scores were similar to population norms. Between-group differences in distress at FU1 (primary outcome) and at FU2, and SCNs and QOL at FU1 and FU2 were small and nonsignificant. Patients in the SC group were more satisfied with survivorship care than those in the UC group (significant differences on 10 of 15 items).

CONCLUSION: The addition of SC to UC did not have a beneficial effect on distress, SCNs, or QOL outcomes, but patients in the SC group were more satisfied with care.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Some survivors of colorectal cancer report distressing effects after completing treatment. Strategies to identify and respond to survivors' issues are needed. In a randomized controlled trial, the addition of a nurse-led supportive care package (SurvivorCare) to usual posttreatment care did not impact survivors' distress, quality of life, or unmet needs. However, patients receiving the SurvivorCare intervention were more satisfied with survivorship care. Factors for consideration in the design of subsequent studies are discussed.

Personality and innate immune defenses in a wild bird: evidence for the pace-of-life hypothesis

We tested the two main evolutionary hypotheses for an association between immunity and personality. The risk-of-parasitism hypothesis predicts that more proactive (bold, exploratory, risk-taking) individuals have more vigorous immune defenses because of increased risk of parasite exposure. In contrast, the pace-of-life hypothesis argues that proactive behavioral styles are associated with shorter lifespans and reduced investment in immune function. Mechanistically, associations between immunity and personality can arise because personality differences are often associated with differences in condition and stress responsiveness, both of which are intricately linked with immunity. Here we investigate the association between personality (measured as proactive exploration of a novel environment) and three indices of innate immune function (the non-specific first line of defense against parasites) in wild superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus. We also quantified body condition, hemoparasites (none detected), chronic stress (heterophil:lymphocyte ratio) and circulating corticosterone levels at the end of the behavioral test (CORT, in a subset of birds). We found that fast explorers had lower titers of natural antibodies. This result is consistent with the pace-of-life hypothesis, and with the previously documented higher mortality of fast explorers in this species. There was no interactive effect of exploration score and duration in captivity on immune indices. This suggests that personality-related differences in stress responsiveness did not underlie differences in immunity, even though behavioral style did modulate the effect of captivity on CORT. Taken together these results suggest reduced constitutive investment in innate immune function in more proactive individuals.

Selection and Passage of County Land Preservation Voter Referendum: The Role of Government

County jurisdictions in America are increasingly exercising self-government in the provision of public community services through the context of second order federalism. In states exercising this form of contemporary governance, county governments with “reformed” policy-making structures and professional management practices, have begun to rival or surpass municipalities in the delivery of local services with regional implications such as environmental protection (Benton 2002, 2003; Marando and Reeves, 1993). The voter referendum, a form of direct democracy, is an important component of county land preservation and environmental protection governmental policies. The recent growth and success of land preservation voter referendums nationwide reflects an increase in citizen participation in government and their desire to protect vacant land and its natural environment from threats of over-development, urbanization and sprawl, loss of open space and farmland, deterioration of ecosystems, and inadequate park and recreational amenities. The study’s design employs a sequential, mixed method. First, a quantitative approach employs the Heckman two-step model. It is fitted with variables for the non-random sample of 227 voter referendum counties and all non-voter referendum counties in the U.S. from 1988 to 2009. Second, the qualitative data collected from the in-depth investigation of three South Florida county case studies with twelve public administrator interviews is transformed for integration with the quantitative findings. The purpose of the qualitative method is to complement, explain and enrich the statistical analysis of county demographic, socio-economic, terrain, regional, governance and government, political preference, environmentalism, and referendum-specific factors. The research finds that government factors are significant in terms of the success of land preservation voter referendums; more specifically, the presence of self-government authority (home rule charter), a reformed structure (county administrator/manager or elected executive), and environmental interest groups. In addition, this study concludes that successful counties are often located coastal, exhibit population and housing growth, and have older and more educated citizens who vote democratic in presidential elections. The analysis of case study documents and public administrator interviews finds that pragmatic considerations of timing, local politics and networking of regional stakeholders are also important features of success. Further research is suggested utilizing additional public participation, local government and public administration factors.

Impact of the timing of metoprolol administration during STEMI on infarct size and ventricular function

Pre-reperfusion administration of intravenous (IV) metoprolol reduces infarct size in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). This study sought to determine how this cardioprotective effect is influenced by the timing of metoprolol therapy having either a long or short metoprolol bolus-to-reperfusion interval. We performed a post hoc analysis of the METOCARD-CNIC (effect of METOprolol of CARDioproteCtioN during an acute myocardial InfarCtion) trial, which randomized anterior STEMI patients to IV metoprolol or control before mechanical reperfusion. Treated patients were divided into short- and long-interval groups, split by the median time from 15 mg metoprolol bolus to reperfusion. We also performed a controlled validation study in 51 pigs subjected to 45 min ischemia/reperfusion. Pigs were allocated to IV metoprolol with a long (−25 min) or short (−5 min) pre-perfusion interval, IV metoprolol post-reperfusion (+60 min), or IV vehicle. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) was performed in the acute and chronic phases in both clinical and experimental settings. For 218 patients (105 receiving IV metoprolol), the median time from 15 mg metoprolol bolus to reperfusion was 53 min. Compared with patients in the short-interval group, those with longer metoprolol exposure had smaller infarcts (22.9 g vs. 28.1 g; p = 0.06) and higher left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (48.3% vs. 43.9%; p = 0.019) on day 5 CMR. These differences occurred despite total ischemic time being significantly longer in the long-interval group (214 min vs. 160 min; p < 0.001). There was no between-group difference in the time from symptom onset to metoprolol bolus. In the animal study, the long-interval group (IV metoprolol 25 min before reperfusion) had the smallest infarcts (day 7 CMR) and highest long-term LVEF (day 45 CMR). In anterior STEMI patients undergoing primary angioplasty, the sooner IV metoprolol is administered in the course of infarction, the smaller the infarct and the higher the LVEF. These hypothesis-generating clinical data are supported by a dedicated experimental large animal study.